Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models

评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显著预测技巧,模式对于夏季SAT表现出最佳的预测水平.与外部强迫相比,模式对于SAT的预测技巧可能来自初始化.模式中的一个明显系统性误差值得注意,即模式中冬季SAT的变率可以持续到其他季节,而在观测中其他季节的SAT变化与冬季SAT相对独立.

Impact of the Shrinkage of Arctic Sea Ice on Eurasian Snow Cover Changes in 1979-2021

Recent research has shown that snow cover induces extreme wintertime cooling and has detrimental impacts.Although the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice certainly has contributed to a more extreme climate,the mechanism connecting sea-ice loss to extensive snow cover is still up for debate.In this study,a significant relationship between sea ice concentration(SIC)in the Barents-Kara(B-K)seas in November and snow cover extent over Eurasia in winter(November-January)has been found based in observational datasets and through numerical experiments.The reduction in B-K sea ice gives rise to a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation(AO),a deepened East Asia trough,and a shallow trough over Europe.These circulation anomalies lead to colder-than-normal Eurasian mid-latitude temperatures,providing favorable conditions for snowfall.In addition,two prominent cyclonic anomalies near Europe and Lake Baikal affect moisture transport and its divergence,which results in increased precipitation due to moisture advection and wind convergence.Furthermore,anomalous E-P flux shows that amplified upward propagating waves associated with the low SIC could contribute to the weakening of the polar vortex and southward breakouts of cold air.This work may be helpful for further understanding and predicting the snowfall conditions in the middle latitudes.

Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with“Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia”

The meridional gradient of surface air temperature associated with“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”(GradTAE)is closely related to climate anomalies and weather extremes in the mid-low latitudes.However,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)shows poor capability for GradTAE prediction.Based on the year-to-year increment approach,analysis using a hybrid seasonal prediction model for GradTAE in winter(HMAE)is conducted with observed September sea ice over the Barents–Kara Sea,October sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic,September soil moisture in southern North America,and CFSv2 forecasted winter sea ice over the Baffin Bay,Davis Strait,and Labrador Sea.HMAE demonstrates good capability for predicting GradTAE with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.84,and the percentage of the same sign is 88%in cross-validation during 1983−2015.HMAE also maintains high accuracy and robustness during independent predictions of 2016−20.Meanwhile,HMAE can predict the GradTAE in 2021 well as an experiment of routine operation.Moreover,well-predicted GradTAE is useful in the prediction of the large-scale pattern of“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”and has potential to enhance the skill of surface air temperature occurrences in the east of China.

Subseasonal transition of Barents-Kara sea-ice anomalies in winter related to the reversed warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern

“暖北极-冷欧亚”模态(WACE)的次季节反转会触发中国东部冬季的极端冷/暖转换以及春季沙尘暴.在这一显著的高纬度大气模态反转的驱动下,巴伦支海-喀拉海(BKS)的海冰异常也表现出次季节转换.当北极变暖以及乌拉尔山高压增强时,BKS异常向下的湍流热通量和增强的向下红外辐射有利于海冰融化;近地面的异常偏南风使海冰从薄冰区向多年冰区漂移,进一步扩大了开阔洋面.相反的机制出现在WACE反位相,导致BKS海冰异常偏多.当WACE次季节反转时,上述机制分别发生在前冬和后冬,使得BKS海冰异常出现显著的次季节转换.近10年随着WACE反转频率增多,BKS海冰前后冬的次季节变化增强.本文构建了WACE次季节反转的综合示意图,有助于更好地理解和预测中国东部极端气候.

The Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations

An enhanced Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia(WACE)pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere.However,divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still remain.This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980-2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models.The results show that the multimodel ensemble(MME)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models.Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well,especially the latter,usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well.This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea-Kara seas(BKS)region.Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking(UB),which can transport heat to the BKS region,causing the warm Arctic,and strengthen the westerly trough downstream,cooling central Eurasia.Therefore,simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.

系统跃迁视角下推动欧亚大陆经济一体化的本质与方向

推动欧亚大陆经济一体化是应对全球地缘政治和经济贸易格局转变的必然要求,也是满足欧亚诸多国家发展利益最大化的有效路径。过去一段时间,全球不平等的交换体系、不安全的发展体系与不公平的治理体系使得过去全球经济系统长期处于不稳定的状态,推动欧亚大陆经济一体化的目标就是要从旧系统的不稳定状态跃迁至新的系统稳态。为此,应从系统联接、系统耦合、系统运行等方面同时着手,不断增强欧亚大陆经济一体化的系统水平。在此基础上,应以当前主要区域合作协议为基准,在政治、经济、文化、地缘等领域进行全面合作,以产业转移、产业开发、产业转化、产业培育为抓手,创新探索科学有效的利益增长和分享机制,不断提高欧亚大陆经济一体化发展水平。

全面贯彻“五统筹”:新时期新疆与欧亚国家次区域合作的新理念、新目标

第三次“一带一路”建设座谈会提出的“五统筹”发展理念,为新时期开展次区域合作提供了重要遵循。当前,新疆与欧亚国家次区域合作取得一定成绩,但优势和潜力尚未充分发挥,严重制约着双方在次区域层面的合作拓展与发展需要。新时期,坚持“统筹发展和安全、统筹国内和国际、统筹合作和竞争、统筹存量和增量、统筹整体和重点”,贯彻落实新疆与欧亚国家次区域合作的新理念,有助于实现“经贸水平实现新提升、新发展格局达到新高度、治理保障能力得到新增强、丝绸之路经济带核心区建设迈上新台阶、民生福祉达到新水平”的新目标。深刻把握“两个大局”意识,聚焦新疆工作总目标,全面贯彻“五统筹”发展理念,是深化新疆与欧亚国家次区域合作的必由之路,有助于推进社会主义现代化新疆建设。

夏季欧亚中高纬大气ISO与欧洲阻塞频率的联系及其对极端高温事件的协同作用

本文利用1979~2018年NCEP逐日再分析资料,探讨了夏季欧亚中高纬地区10~30天大气季节内振荡(ISO)的时空演变及其对欧洲阻塞频率的影响,并探讨了两者对欧亚极端高温发生频率的协同作用。研究表明,欧亚中高纬10~30天大气ISO表现出东传和西传两种模态。东(西)传模态下,对流层西北—东南向倾斜的四极型(东西向分布的偶极型)准正压位势高度异常耦合温度异常同时向东南方向(向西)传播。位相合成表明,在两个模态下,中高纬低频Rossby波列在传播过程中能够显著影响欧洲阻塞的发生。东(西)传模态位相6~7(5~6)期间,欧洲阻塞发生最频繁。在东(西)传模态位相6~7(5~6)期间,欧洲西部、东欧平原、乌拉尔山以及我国东北平原(欧洲和乌拉尔山)地区分别受准正压的+-+-(+-)高度异常控制。有阻塞发生时,东传模态下,欧洲西部的正高度异常强度明显增强,乌拉尔山地区,东欧平原以及我国东北平原地区的高度异常强度均有所减弱。同时,欧洲以南出现负的高度异常;西传模态下,偶极型高度异常强度均增强,欧洲以南和我国东北平原分别出现负的和正的高度异常。可见,在两个模态阻塞频发位相下,阻塞的发生增加了欧洲和我国东北地区极端高温事件的发生频率,降低了欧洲以南和乌拉尔山地区极端高温事件的发生频率。因此,欧洲阻塞活动显著调控了欧亚中高纬地区大气ISO两个传播模态对极端高温事件的影响。

Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of historical surface soil moisture simulation(1979-2012)over Eurasia at annual and seasonal time scales between two medium-resolution versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)—one that is currently participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),i.e.,BCC-CSM2-MR,and the other,BCC-CSM1.1m,which participated in CMIP5.We show that BCC-CSM2-MR is more skillful in reproducing the climate mean states and standard deviations of soil moisture,with pattern correlations increased and biases reduced significantly.BCC-CSM2-MR performs better in capturing the first two primary patterns of soil moisture anomalies,where the period of the corresponding time series is closer to that of reference data.Comparisons show that BCC-CSM2-MR performs at a high level among multiple models of CMIP6 in terms of centered pattern correlation and“amplitude of variation”(relative standard deviation).In general,the centered pattern correlation of BCC-CSM2-MR,ranging from 0.61 to 0.87,is higher than the multi-model mean of CMIP6,and the relative standard deviation is 0.75,which surmounts the overestimations in most of the CMIP6 models.Due to the vital role played by precipitation in land-atmosphere interaction,possible causes of the improvement of soil moisture simulation are further related to precipitation in BCC-CSM2-MR.The results indicate that a better description of the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation and a better reproduction of the climate mean precipitation by the model may result in the improved performance of soil moisture simulation.

Structural and Chronological Evidence for the India-Eurasia Collision of the Early Paleocene in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, Namjagbarwa

The eastern Himalayan syntaxis in Namjagbarwa is a high-grade metamorphicterrain formed by the India-Eurasia collision and northward indentation of the Indian continent intoAsia. Right- and left-lateral slip zones were formed by the indentation on the eastern and westernboundaries of the syntaxis respectively. The Dongjug-Mainling fault zone is the main shear zone onthe western boundary. This fault zone is a left-lateral slip belt with a large component ofthrusting. The kinematics of the fault is consistent with the shortening within the syntaxis, andthe slipping history along it represents the indenting process of the syntaxis. The Ar-Archronological study shows that the age of the early deformation in the Dongjug-Mainling fault zoneranges from 62 to 59 Ma. This evidences that the India-Eurasia collision occurred in the earlyPaleocene in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis.

An Objective Identification Method for Wintertime Cold Fronts in Eurasia

The present study identifies wintertime cold fronts in Eurasia from gridded datasets using a new objective two-step identification scheme.The simple and classic conception of a front is adopted,where a cold front is identified as the warm boundary of the frontal zone with a suitable horizontal temperature gradient and cold advection.We combine the traditional thermal front parameter with temperature advection to first identify the cold frontal zone,and then its eastern and southern boundaries are objectively plotted as a cold front in Eurasia.By comparing different cold front identification methods,the results from this two-step cold front identification method and subjective analysis are more consistent,and the positions of the cold front identified with our method are more reasonable.This objective technique is also applied to a nationwide cold wave event over China.Results show that the horizontal extent and movement of the cold front are in good agreement with the related circulation and the associated cold weather.The proposed method and results in this study may shed light on the rapid identification of cold fronts in operational weather analysis and facilitate further research on the long-term activity characteristics of continental cold fronts.

Seasonal evolution of the dominant modes of the Eurasian snowpack and atmospheric circulation from autumn to the subsequent spring and the associated surface heat budget

本文研究了欧亚大陆地区雪水当量、积雪覆盖率以及500 hPa位势高度的主模态从秋季到次年春季的演变情况。结果表明,欧亚大陆地区的积雪与大气环流主模态从秋季至次年春季呈稳定而显著的相关关系。欧亚地区雪水当量和大气环流主模态的季节演变表现出了良好的连贯性,而积雪覆盖率的主模态则在秋-冬过渡时期表现出了较差的连贯性。在相应的表面热量收支方面,由近表面风驱动的热平流是影响表面热量收支的重要因素,在冬季尤为显著。此外,由积雪引起的短波辐射异常在春季扮演了同样重要甚至更加重要的角色。

Opposing Trends of Winter Cold Extremes over Eastern Eurasia and North America under Recent Arctic Warming

Under recent Arctic warming,boreal winters have witnessed severe cold surges over both Eurasia and North America,bringing about serious social and economic impacts.Here,we investigated the changes in daily surface air temperature(SAT)variability during the rapid Arctic warming period of 1988/89–2015/16,and found the daily SAT variance,mainly contributed by the sub-seasonal component,shows an increasing and decreasing trend over eastern Eurasia and North America,respectively.Increasing cold extremes(defined as days with daily SAT anomalies below 1.5 standard deviations)dominated the increase of the daily SAT variability over eastern Eurasia,while decreasing cold extremes dominated the decrease of the daily SAT variability over North America.The circulation regime of cold extremes over eastern Eurasia(North America)is characterized by an enhanced high-pressure ridge over the Urals(Alaska)and surface Siberian(Canadian)high.The data analyses and model simulations show the recent strengthening of the high-pressure ridge over the Urals was associated with warming of the Barents–Kara seas in the Arctic region,while the high-pressure ridge over Alaska was influenced by the offset effect of Arctic warming over the East Siberian–Chukchi seas and the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)–like sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the North Pacific.The transition of the PDO-like SST anomalies from a positive to negative phase cancelled the impact of Arctic warming,reduced the occurrence of extreme cold days,and possibly resulted in the decreasing trend of daily SAT variability in North America.The multi-ensemble simulations of climate models confirmed the regional Arctic warming as the driver of the increasing SAT variance over eastern Eurasia and North America and the overwhelming effect of SST forcing on the decreasing SAT variance over North America.Therefore,the regional response of winter cold extremes at midlatitudes to the Arctic warming could be different due to the distinct impact of decadal SST anomalies.

Morphology through ontogeny of Chinese Proboscidipparion and Plesiohipparion and observations on their Eurasian and African relatives

分析了来自贺风近三趾马(Plesiohipparion houfenense)、原始长鼻三趾马(Proboscidipparion pater)和中国长鼻三趾马(Proboscidipparion sinense)三个种的共计18颗经过切片处理的颊齿,总结了颊齿在个体发育过程中的形态变化,并揭示出这些中国类群与其他欧亚大陆以及非洲的三趾马门类之间可能存在近裔共征。在形态特征上,Pl.houfenense的上下颊齿很可能与西班牙的Pl.crusafonti,土耳其的Plesiohipparion aff.P.huangheense以及非洲的Eurygnathohippus类群有共同特征。另一方面,这些欧亚大陆和非洲类群事实上很可能起源于西瓦利克的Sivalhippus类群。Proboscidipparion属中的两个种,P.pater和P.sinense之间有着明显的亲缘关系,并且可能与土耳其的'Proboscidipparion'heintzi也有亲缘关系。另外,以前的学者曾提出Proboscidipparion与Sivalhippus支系存在亲缘关系,本文对P.pater和P.sinense上、下颊齿的分析支持了这一观点。

Kimmeridgian Foraminiferal Faunas of Northern Eurasia: Significance for Interregional Correlations and Palaeobiogeography

Foraminifer is a very useful microorganism to perform biostratigraphical zonation of the Upper Jurassic. Foraminiferal biozones are calibrated by the ammonite standard zones and can be used for intra- and interregional correlations. Furthermore, the fossil record of foraminiferal faunas is well known among basins of the Northern Eurasia and is also used for accurate palaeoenvironmental, palaeobiogeographical, or biofacial reconstructions. It allows identifying a complex set of biotic and abiotic events which may be used to propose a more general palaeoecoloecological and palaeoceanographical reconstruction of the Subboreal, Boreal, and Arctic seas. Then, the late Kimmeridgian Northern Eurasian seas formed a network of well-connected palaeobasins during the sea-level rise and resulted in rather similar palaeoenvironmental conditions.

Structural Evolution of the Eastern Margin of Eurasia in Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic

This paper features the structural evolution of the eastern margin of Eurasia in Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. It is characterized by three stages of development: the riftogenic stage (Jurassic-Early Cretaceous), the platform stage (Late Cretaceous) and the neotectonic one (Paleogene-Quarternary). The boundaries between these stages are distinctly fixed by the geological time limits of planetary range. It is demonstrated that the riftogenic and neotectonic stages were characterized by a high degree of geodynamic activity, and the platform one by a decrease in contrast of tectonic movements. The main river net was formed in the Early Cretaceous and in the Neogene. It experienced a serious reconstruction accompanied by the formation of the Amur River valley being similar to the modern one.

Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent （SWE） data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attend- hag the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project （CMIP3） was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979-2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002-2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in wanner seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases （GHG） will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.

Intercontinental response to variations in the Arabia-Eurasia Plate convergence,calcite e-twin evidence of the Kuhbanan Fault system,Central Iran

Variations in the plate convergence direction have generally reflected on the kinematics of the major fault zones developed in the intercontinental parts of the collision zones.The Kuhbanan Fault system is one of the most important intercontinental faults in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone with a dextral strike slip mechanism.This fault system is composed of three fault strands including Kuhbanan,Bazargan,and Kerman Faults.Here we used calcite e-twin analysis of the vein samples developed in these fault zones to reconstruct deformation condition and the paleodifferential stress direction and magnitude at the Kuhbanan Fault system.Our results represent 190°C-200°C of the deformation temperature and related 5–6±1 km of deformation depth at the Kuhbanan Fault system.Calculated paleodifferential stress magnitude in the Kuhbanan Fault system using e-twin parameters ranges from 169-196 MPa similar to the inner parts of the orogenic systems.Comparing the data set of the Kuhbanan Fault system with previous studies at the Zagros orogen represents an increase of deformation depth and paleodifferential stress magnitudes from the foreland of the Zagros orogen to its hinterland and finally northward around the Kuhbanan Fault system in the central Iranian blocks.We have also proposed a shift of the stress direction from paleo NE to recent N directed by comparing paleostress direction deduced from the calcite e-twin and recent stress direction calculated from GPS and earthquake data analysis around the Kuhbanan Fault system.This kinematics change due to plate reorganization is in agreement with the observed regional variation in convergence direction all in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone.

Lianyungang——Head on the New Eurasia Continental Bridge

Since the new Eurasia ContinentalBridge was formally opened in 1992,the East Bridge Tower-- Lianyungang-- has been attracting more and more attentionin the circles of transport and trade worldwide.In 1995, Lianyungang successfully organizedwhole line transport by rail for internationaltransit containers, and freight volume on theContinental Bridge is growing at an acceleratedspeed. At present, Lianyungang hasundertaken the task of transport for the totaltransit containers along the new EurasiaContinental Bridge. The countries and regionsthat make use of the Continental Bridge toconduct transport include the USA, SouthKorea, Japan, Kazakhstan and Hongkong.Between 1992 and 1995, a total of 8。

The Big Eurasian Partnership as a Model of a New World Order:from the American to the Asian World Economic Paradigm

The paper applies the conception of world economic and technological modes’changing in order to justify the emergence of a new model of global economic order.The research is focused on the justification of the Big Eurasian Partnership(BEP)as such kind of pattern.We’ve started to form the basis and create a Road Map for the BEP building.First of all,we determine the conditions for the BEP construction taking into account the logic of switching from the American(Imperial)to the Asian(Integral)world economic paradigm.The paper also includes clear author’s definition of the BEP and the formulations of the goals for its creation.The author puts forward the principles of the Big Eurasian Partnership,reveals the active zones of conjugation processes in the space of the Big Eurasia and highlights the positive effect from the interconnection of the countries within the BEP construction.It is also showed in the paper how different international initiatives uniting the countries(like“Belt and Road”initiative of China,Eurasian Economic Union,etc.)can co-exist within the common BEP concept.The paper contains the results of scientific diplomacy worked out by the author according to the general idea of Russian President.