The Impacts of International Sport Events:Case Studies of Two Hungarian Cities,Gyor and Székesfehérvár

After the period between 1998 and 2002, sport has again and continuously been considered as a priority strategicsector in Hungary since the year 2010. Hungary has demonstrated remarkable performance in organisinginternational sport events. The FINA World Championships and the European Youth Olympic Festival, both heldin 2017, as well as the annual GyulaiIstván Memorial Athletics Hungarian Grand Prix have profound worldwidesignificance. The objective of the study is to give an insight into how the two host cities （Gyor and Székesfehérvár）and their residents perceive these international sport events and their impacts in Hungary.

The impact analysis of policy events on China's carbon market

This paper interrogates the impact of policy events on the efficiency of carbon market in China.The analysis covers five piloting emission trading schemes(Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong,Shenzhen and Hubei), particularly focusing on Guangdong pilot for its weak form efficiency and the richness of policy events. Twenty-five policy events between 2014 and 2016 are categorized into seven groups. The efficiency test indicates that only Guangdong ETS has reached weak form efficiency. After exploring the policy events occurred in Guangdong ETS, it finds that although a clear long-term climate policy has been set up over the country, China's carbon market still has a conservative risk appetite and its governing institutions still needs further development. The policy makers need to be aware of and avoid the negative impacts of policy events to the market evolvement, by introducing effective consultancy process with the stakeholders and nurturing market expectations in the long run. We also find that events like allowance auctions have considerably less impacts than previously expected and argue that auction approach should be considered a preferable option over a free allocation system in the future policy design.

GEOLOGICAL MARKS OF A POSSIBLE EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACT EVENT ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SINIAN/CAMBRIAN IN TIANMENSHAN IN WESTERN HUNAN

Geologic marks related to extraterrestrial impact events, such as impact split gravels, impact brecciate layers, impact dikes, microirghizites, microtektites, especially meteoritic residues, were discovered on the boundary between Sinian/Cambrian at Tianmenshan of Western Hunan, which may possibly demonstrate that an extraterrestrial impact event has ever occurred there on the S/C boundary.

The Last 15,000 Years: Climate-Controlled and “Rare-Event”-Triggered/Rise and Fall of Holocene Cultures in the Near/Middle East and in Central Europe—Evidence and Background

Pushed by the results of a preceding publication on the possibly Quaternary Jebel Waqf as Suwwan Meteorite Crater, Jordan [5], where an amazing coincidence of Rapid Climate Changes (RCCs) with Rise and Fall of Neolithic and Bronze Age Cultures became evident for the Near/Middle East, this paper deals with the same subject, however, relating to the complete Holocene period in the same area and, additionally, in Central Europe as well. By application of modern climatic data [6] comprising isotope analysis (δ18O, 14C, 10Be), acid and aerosol events, and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) Greenland ice cores as well as other astro-/geophysical and geological parameters, an overwhelming coincidence/relation/interdependence of both natural and cultural evidences becomes obvious throughout the last 15,000 years across the Northern Hemisphere. Apart from solar output and other astrophysical processes, most important climate- and Earth-related parameters are Mega-Volcanism (i.e.Santorini Greece: ~3640 yr cal. B. P.), Impact Events (i.e. during Mesolithic: ~9600 yr cal. B. P), rapid oceanic current change (DO-Events), and Plate Tectonics (possibly Atlantis-Event: ~11,500 yr cal. B.P. = Pleistocene/Holocene boundary). The most essential parameter is a significant temperature change related to more or less restricted latitude realms of the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, glacier advance/retreat controls the mobility of peoples (i.e. Nations' Migration, Teutonic Empires) and the access to ore deposits (Au, Ag, Cu, Sn, Zn, Pb, Fe) located in Alpine Mountain Ranges (i.e. End-Neolithic, Early Bronze Age). Myths like the Gilgamesh Epos and John Apocalypse convincingly reveal realistic contents relating to natural hazards like tsunamis, impact and flooding events. They unmisunderstandably make obvious that Myths may provide valuable contributions, especially to Geosciences. Some of the controlling parameters interrelate with others or present a kind of hierarchy: Mega-Volcanism/impact events à ejecta à wildfires, heat storms à cosmic winter, sint winter à stop of photosynthesis à mass extinction environmental pollution à greenhouse effects. Significant events (21 cases in total) occurred on i.e.

Palaeoclimatic Cycles, Global Environmental Changes and New Glacial Periods Induced by the Impact of Extraterrestrial Bodies

In terms of Earth\|Sun geometry, the Milankovitch theory has successfully explained most of the cyclic palaeoclimatic variations during the history of the Earth, especially in the Quaternary. In this paper, the authors suggest that the impact of extraterrestrial bodies on the Earth may be another mechanism to cause palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods. Based on geological and geochemical records in the boundary layers produced by six huge Cenozoic bolide\|impact events (65, 34, 15, 2.4, 1.1, 0.73 Ma B.P.), including those at 34, 15, 1.1 and 0.73 Ma B.P. which are represented by four famous tektite\|strewn fields, the process and mechanics of palaeoclimatic cycles and global environmental catastrophes induced by extraterrestrial impact are discussed in detail. Impact\|generated dust, soot and aerosol floating in the stratosphere could result in short\|term (<1 year), rapid drop in temperature immediately after impact. Through self\|regulation of the Earth’s climate system, the temperature at the surface slowly went up within 100a and maintained stable for a long time at 250K. If there were no other factors leading to the break\|down of the newly\|established equilibrium, a new glacial period would be initiated. Estimating from the thickness of \{δ\{\}\+\{13\}C\} and \{δ\{\}\+\{18\}O\} anomalies in sediments across the impact boundary layer and deposition rate, the duration of two stages of the palaeoclimate cycle in the form of cold weather—greenhouse effect—normal weather was 10\+4-10\+5a, respectively. The conclusion deduced from the above model is supported by palaeotemperature change recorded by oxygen isotope in sediments across the impact boundary layer.

Regional Tourism Resilience under Crisis Impacts:The Cases of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

Since the beginning of the 21st century,various crisis events have occurred frequently,inflicting substantial impacts on the tourism sector,which has garnered considerable scholarly and policy attention.Nevertheless,limited research has systematically explored tourism resilience at the urban scale,and there is a paucity of studies comparing regional differences in tourism resilience under distinct crisis scenarios and their underlying causes.Thus,this study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,employing Martin’s regional economic resilience measurement method.It assesses the tourism resilience of the two regions under the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic,subsequently visualizing the data results using ArcGIS software.The study also endeavors to unveil potential causes for disparities in urban tourism resilience.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,regions with higher economic development exhibit relatively weaker tourism resilience during economic crises,yet demonstrate comparatively stronger resilience during public crises.Secondly,distinct differentiations exist both between and within the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,primarily stemming from variations such as geographical positioning,tourism resource endowments,and industrial and economic structures,both regionally and within individual cities.Thirdly,the determination of regional tourism resilience is intricate and cannot be restricted to a single dimension;multidimensional indicators better encapsulate the essence of regional tourism resilience.

Risk Assessment of Extreme Events along a River Flow

The present work considers the Struma River water flow on Bulgarian territory as a starting point for evalua-tion of maximum and minimum water flow using an original integral method. The risk assessment is deter-mined by specific indices like the index Mmax,i for the deviation of the maximum water flow from the calcu-lated norm of the maximum flow Qmax,0 and the index Mmin,i for the deviation of the minimum water flow from calculated norm of the minimum flow Qmin,0. The new integral approach introducing specific indicators for risk assessment like the indices Mmin,i and Mmax,i has been checked at three sampling locations of the Na-tional monitoring net along the Struma River: Pernik (in the beginning), Krupnik (in the middle) and Marino pole (at the border in Greece) for the period 1948-2006. A significant trend towards decreasing of Mmax,i in-dex is outlined for the three points. On contrary, a significant trend towards increasing of Mmin,i index is found at Krupnik and Marno pole sampling points.

基于儿童认知心理的盐业历史博物馆体验设计研究

自贡市盐业历史博物馆是集教育、审美和互动为一体的公共文化场所,是儿童接收井盐文化教育的关键途径。基于儿童认知心理和体验EEI模型,梳理儿童认知下的体验设计框架,并结合盐业历史博物馆体验现状,归纳运算阶段儿童的体验形式,并同时辅助非结构式访谈和用户旅程图,提炼儿童认知下的盐业历史博物馆体验需求和体验痛点。最后,从感知、思维、记忆三个认知层次出发,提出面向儿童的盐业博物馆体验设计策略,旨在提升其教育功能,促进运算阶段儿童深化对井盐文化的感知与理解,全面深化井盐文化的体验。

Effects on Sedimentary Processes via Upper Triassic Climate Forcing Caused by Multiple Impacting and Large Igneous Provinces (LIP)-Rifting/Degassing: Jordanian Platform/Arabian Plate and Germanic Basin/Central Europe

Upper Triassic sedimentary systems of both the Arabian Plate and the Germanic Basin reveal climate- and plate tectonic-forced effects through certain time-intervals experienced by architectural elements, lithofacies types, unconformities, flash flood deposits, maximum flooding surfaces/sequence boundary (MFS/SB), mineralogy, and isotope anomalies. Further, Moon recession and changes of Earth’s rotation velocity (core/mantle boundary) are associated with multiple impacting and large igneous provinces/Mid Oceanic Ridge Basalt, LIP/MORB-rifting/degassing. While acidification (by degassing, sturz-rain) does influence tectosilicates and carbonates, montmorillonite represents a key mineral as transformation of volcanic/impact glass (Tephra) to be found as co-components in and in certain pelite units as “boundary clay-suspicions” (mixture of eolian paleoloess, pelite, paleosol, and tephra → tuffite). Obviously, unconformities and sequence boundaries of both study areas separate and dislocate interrupted ∂13C and 87Sr/86Sr-data groups along the isotope curves. Both Proto-Arctic Ocean rifting/degassing comprising kimberlitic pyroclastic eruptions and Neotethys rifting/degassing as well as multiple impacting played the most important role during the Norian, followed by the incipient Central Atlantic Magmatic Provinces rifting since the Rhaetian. The following associations are encountered and dealt with in this study: Sequence boundaries-∂13C, maximum flooding surfaces-(FUCs)-∂13C, unconformities-plate motion, tephra-pelite-tuffite-montmorillonite. Norian: maximum flooding surfaces (MFSs)-“paleosol”/boundary clay?-rifting-volcanism, Moon/Earth data change. So the Norian (~221 - 206 Ma) hosts anomalous “amalgamated maximum flooding surfaces (MFSs)”, amalgamated paleosol (Jordanian Platform), multiple impacting (~219 - 214 Ma), the maximum opening of the Proto-Arctic Ocean (PAO) (~230 - 200 Ma), Neo-Tethys (NT)-subvolcanic (sills, dikes) in the NE Dead Sea area prior the Rhaetian, and a significant change of Earth/Moon relation data. The study concludes that rare and extreme events are very strongly shaping the geologic constellations in the Earth System.

拦截机动目标的固定时间事件触发协同制导律

针对无向通信拓扑结构下的多枚导弹考虑角度约束同时攻击机动目标的问题,提出一种事件触发控制下的固定时间收敛分布式多弹协同制导律.首先,建立导弹-目标相对运动学模型,在视线坐标系下解耦为沿视线和垂直视线两个方向.其次,在视线切向考虑时间约束,提出一种基于事件触发机制的固定时间收敛协同制导律,保证攻击时间的一致性;在视线法向上考虑空间角度约束,提出一种基于固定时间收敛理论的分布式空间协同制导律,使视线角和视线角速率快速收敛到期望值,以满足脱靶量和终端角度约束;同时,针对目标机动引起的系统扰动,采用固定时间收敛的观测器进行在线估计与补偿.利用Lyapunov理论,证明了所提出协同制导律的稳定性.最后,通过数学仿真,验证了所提出的协同制导律的有效性.

气候变化事件对头足类繁殖、年龄生长与早期生活史影响的研究进展

头足类是重要的渔业资源之一,其渔业生物学特性极易受到海洋环境变化的影响。气候系统中的能量主要储存载体是海洋。近年来频发的气候变化事件引发海洋环境因子变动,直接或间接地改变了头足类的渔业生物学特性,对头足类的渔业生产造成影响。为此,本文归纳和总结了气候变化对头足类繁殖、年龄生长与早期生活史等3个方面的影响,并提出了展望。结果表明,气候变化事件的发生极易影响头足类动物的渔业生物学特性,海洋环境因子中的温度和初级生产力变动为主要影响因素。目前,相关研究对象多为柔鱼科和枪乌贼科等经济种类,选用的海洋环境因子也多为海洋环境温度,今后应结合其他海洋环境数据研究气候变化事件对其他种类的影响。本文旨为研究气候变化事件对头足类渔业生物学特性的影响提供理论依据,为近年来气候变化事件频发下头足类渔业的可持续发展提供科学指导。

考虑交通事件影响的高速公路短时行程时间预测

本研究目的是基于历史行程数据并考虑交通事件,构建可提高高速公路短时行程时间预测精度的方法。基于深层机器学习理论,设计加权均方根相似(Weighted-RMSS)模型,利用经纬度将行程分段,考虑高速公路车辆时空流动性的时间传递,计算当前行程时间和历史案例行程时间的相似性,提高了行程时间预测精确度。在此基础上,结合交通事件数据建立交通事件影响矩阵,建立LGBM模型(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)用于短时行程时间预测,并利用广州高速公路平沙至机场南路段实测数据进行验证。研究结果表明,开发2个模型效果均优于传统KNN模型,且考虑了交通事件影响的LGBM模型的预测精度高于Weighted-RMSS模型,达到95.68%,比较不同未来预测时间得出预测5 min效果最佳,精度可达96.18%。本研究在短时行程时间预测上有显著的优越性,有助于为驾驶人提供准确的出行时间,有利于高速公路的交通管理。

气候变化对园艺作物生产的影响

近年来随着极端天气事件频率和强度的增加,对园艺作物的生长、产量和品质都造成了不同程度的影响。该文通过综述和分析文献资料,基于气候变化中气温升高、降水变化、极端天气事件增加等情况,探讨相关因素对园艺作物的生长发育和产量稳定性的影响,以及气候变化对园艺作物生长环境中土壤水分、温度、光照等因素的变化对不同作物的适应性和产量的影响及当前研究的不足,总结应对气候变化的关键策略并提出未来研究的方向,如优化种植结构、调整栽培措施、采用抗逆性强的品种、改善耕作管理等措施,以提高园艺作物对气候变化的适应能力和生产稳定性,并不断开发更加适应性强的新品种、建立全面有效的气候调控技术体系等,通过综合利用技术手段和管理措施,可以有效减轻极端天气对园艺作物生产的影响,保障农业生产的稳定性和可持续发展。

高校大面积停电事件情景构建及应急处置

高校作为一个独特的社区,对大面积停电事件的敏感性较高。此类事件不仅影响教学和生活,还可能威胁到高校的安全稳定。为全面探究大面积停电事件对高校安全稳定的影响及应急处置策略,首先通过分析近年来国内外高校大面积停电事件,归纳出人为、技术和设备、系统设计、自然环境等影响因素,从电网、基础设施、服务保障、社会影响4个层面建立影响模型,分析了高校电力系统的整体性及脆弱性;然后结合霍尔三维结构理论,从风险演化、事件分类、应急响应3个维度构建了高校大面积停电事件情景构建分析模型,对高校大面积停电重点关注事件、情景处置和应急任务进行分类、分层阐释;最后基于西安某高校停电事件,对情景构建分析模型和应急任务的可行性进行了验证。结果表明:列出的不同时段重点关注事件有助于识别高校大面积停电事件突发应对关键脆弱点,建立的情景构建分析模型和应急任务是可行的。研究结果能为高校有效应对大面积停电事件、保障校园安全稳定提供参考。

综合交通运输服务指数构建与应用研究

交通运输作为国民经济和社会发展的“先行官”,是经济社会发展的重要标志。而综合交通运输体系发展是当代交通运输发展的新趋势、新方向。为健全和完善综合交通运输体系,提出构建综合交通运输服务指数方法,并以陕西省为例,选取铁路、公路、水运、航空、邮政五大运输领域运量数据,通过对缺失值补充、季节调整、无量纲化、熵权法确定权重,进而使用Fisher-ideal方法构建陕西省综合交通运输服务指数,并结合HP滤波处理的周期性分析、重大事件影响分析验证其合理性。结果表明:构建的综合交通运输服务指数能在一定程度上发挥宏观经济的先行指标功能,可展现不同阶段重大事件对交通运输业的影响,具有适用性。

高校体育赛事对学生体育参与度的影响分析

该研究旨在研究高校体育赛事对学生体育参与度的影响,并就此提出合理的解决方案。正面影响方面,体育赛事能够促进学生身体健康、培养运动习惯、加强团队协作和领导能力,同时提高社交能力。然而,负面影响涉及学业压力、时间管理、竞争压力和心理健康问题。解决方案包括合理安排赛事时间、提供学业与体育平衡培训、强调心理健康支持,并持续评估与改进整合系统,以促进学生的全面发展。

城市居民对重大事件的感知变化研究——2006杭州世界休闲博览会期间的纵向研究

事件影响是一个衡量事件社会经济价值的重要内容,通常是从事件举办地居民感知的角度进行研究。鉴于感知是一个动态过程,本文以杭州休闲博览会为例,以社会交换理论为基础,通过时间序列纵向比较研究方法来探讨城市居民对重大事件感知的变化。通过面向杭州市居民的两次抽样调查得到基础数据,基于SPSS13.0软件进行处理,运用主成分因子分析和配对t检验得出:杭州市居民对休闲博览会积极因子的感知呈弱化趋势,对消极因子的感知呈强化趋势,文化资产在活动中得到策划者的重视,但居民对事件的认识还需要有关部门的积极引导。

内蒙古赤峰地区气候变暖及其影响

利用赤峰地区1951-2006年的气温、降水、沙尘暴等资料,分析了赤峰地区近50 a来的气候变化趋势,探讨了气候变暖带来的影响。结果表明:赤峰地区20世纪80年代以来气候变暖已成事实,1987年是气候变暖的突变时间点。气候变暖后,低温日数明显减少;无霜期延长,积温增加;旱涝和降水异常天气现象发生的概率增大;大风和沙尘暴发生概率减少。分析认为:气候变暖对赤峰地区农业的影响是利大于弊,而对生态环境的影响则是弊多利少。

我国突发性环境污染事故时空格局及影响研究

收集1993～2005年污染事故统计数据，运用GIS和非参数相关分析方法，分析了全国范围内环境污染与破坏事故的动态变化趋势、空间地域分布，探讨了不同的经济条件下影响其发生的外部因素.结果表明：①13 a中全国每年发生的环境污染与破坏事故总次数最少为1 406次，最多为3 001次，且总体趋势是下降的，水和大气两类环境事故占据了事故总数的绝大部分（83.04%～92.02%）。②环境污染与破坏事故空间上主要集中在我国东南和中部地区省份，湖南、四川和广西为环境事故最密集的区域。③人口数、GDP产值、企业个数和工业废水排放量对环境污染与破坏事故的发生次数有正作用。不同的经济水平下环境污染与破坏事故的发生与影响因素的相关程度不同，发达省份事故数仅与企业数呈现显著正相关关系。

上市公司违规信息披露处罚效果的研究

上市公司违规信息披露是公司不规范治理下违规成本 -收益的预期结果 ,中国证监会、沪深交易所对违规信息披露处罚并未威慑和阻止违规行为收敛 ,笔者提出违规信息披露处罚实际效果的问题 ,并利用SUR模型事件分析方法和统计资料对此进行实证分析。研究表明处罚没有足够威慑力、市场对处罚反应与处罚公开性和力度正相关、处罚总体上未增加违规信息披露成本 ;笔者对为提高中国证券市场效率和信息披露监管有效提供了基于实证研究的建议。