Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events

A global forecast model is used to examine various sensitivities of numerical predictions of three extreme winter storms that occurred near the eastern continental margin of North America: the Ohio Valley blizzard of January 1978, the New England blizzard of February 1978, and the Mid-Atlantic cyclone of February 1979. While medium-resolution simulations capture much of the intensification, the forecasts of the precise timing and intensity levels suffer from various degrees of error. The coastal cyclones show a 5-10 hPa dependence on the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is varied within a range (± 2.5℃) compatible with interannual fluctuations. The associated vertical velocities and precipitation rates show proportionately stronger dependences on the ocean temperature perturbations. The Ohio Valley blizzard, which intensified along a track 700-800 km from the coast, shows little sensitivity to ocean temperature. The effect of a shift of - 10?latitude in the position of the snow boundary is negligible in each case. The forecasts depend strongly on the model resolution, and the coarse-resolution forecasts are consistently inferior to the medium-resolution forecasts. Studies of the corresponding sensitivities of extreme cyclonic events over eastern Asia are encouraged in order to identify characteristics that are common to numerical forecasts for the two regions.

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.

Discrete event model-based simulation for train movement on a single-line railway

The aim of this paper is to present a discrete event model-based approach to simulate train movement with the con- sidered energy-saving factor. We conduct extensive case studies to show the dynamic characteristics of the traffic flow and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed discrete event model-based simulation approach is suitable for characterizing the movements of a group of trains on a single railway line with less iterations and CPU time. Additionally, some other qualitative and quantitative characteristics are investigated. In particular, because of the cumulative influence from the previous trains, the following trains should be accelerated or braked frequently to control the headway distance, leading to more energy consumption.

Research on Event Handling Models of Java

A new event-handling paradigm and its application model are proposed. The working mechanism and principle of event listener model is given in detail. Finally, the launching event mechanisms, the choosing event handling models and the dispatching mechanism are illustrated.

Improved Algebraic Model for Serial Production Lines with Limited Buffer Sizes

The ordered event model is improved to describe serial production lines with limited buffer sizes. The improved model hasthe same computational burden as the original one and can be constrUcted directly according to given principles. Several simulationexamples are cited to verify this improved model. Extensions and open problems are also indicated. By means of this new model, serialProduotion lines with limitations of resources can be stUdied analytically.

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff—A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.

On the “spring predictability barrier” for strong El Nio events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system

Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model.

Low-frequency variability of terrestrial water budget in China using GRACE satellite measurements from 2003 to 2010

Mass variations in terrestrial water storage（TWS） obtained from eight years of satellite data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） are used to describe low frequency TWS through Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analysis. Results of the second seasonal EOF mode show the influence of the Meiyu season. Annual variability is clearly shown in the precipitation distribution over China, and two new patterns of interannual variability are presented for the first time from observations, where two periods of abrupt acceleration are seen in 2004 and 2008. GRACE successfully measures drought events in southern China, and in this respect, an association with the Arctic Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This study demonstrates the unique potential of satellite gravity measurements in monitoring TWS variations and large-scale severe drought in China.

Delay Restoration of Single-Track Railway Rescheduling

On the basis of analysis of the principle of delay restoration in a disturbed schedule, a heuristic algorithm for rescheduling trains is developed by restoring the total delay of the disturbed schedule. A discrete event topologic model is derived from the original undisturbed train diagram and a back propagation analysis method is used to label the maximum buffer time of each point in the model. In order to analyze the principle of delay restoration, the concept of critical delay is developed from the labeled maximum buffer time. The critical delay is the critical point of successful delay restoration. All the disturbed trains are classified into the strong-delayed trains and the weak-delayed trains by the criterion of the critical delay. Only the latter, in which actual delay is less than its critical delay, can be adjusted to a normal running state during time horizon considered. The heuristic algorithm is used to restore all the disturbed trains according to their critical details. The cores of the algorithm are the iterative repair technique and two repair methods for the two kinds of trains. The algorithm searches iteratively the space of possible conflicts caused by disturbed trains using an earfiest-delay-first heuristics and always attempts to repair the earliest constraint violation. The algorithm adjusts the weak-delayed trains directly back to the normal running state using the buffer time of the original train diagram. For the strong-delayed trains,the algorithm uses an utility function with some weighted attributes to determine the dynamic priority of the trains, and resolves the conflict according to the calculated dynamic priority. In the end, the experimental results show that the algorithm produces ＂good enough＂ schedules effectively and efficiently in disturbed situations.

Processes involved in the second-year warming of the 2015 El Nio event as derived from an intermediate ocean model

The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nio event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nio event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves(as indicated in sea level(SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nio event are consistent with current El Nio and Southern Oscillation theories.

An Object-Oriented Multi-Thread Dialog Model

This paper presents a multi thread dialog model using extended state transition network model combined with an object oriented event model to specify and manage user interface. The model provides multi thread dialogs and the concurrent executing of user interface and application procedures. The forms of class based concurrency possible in the model emphasize the human computer interaction and exploit the concurrency across objects and within an object. Dialog descriptions using extended state transition networks, the automatic extraction of concurrency, the facilities for performing synchronization and communicating, generalization and specification, and the smooth transition from dialog design to programming language implementation are also given in this paper.

Design and development of JUNO event data model

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory（JUNO） detector is designed to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy and precisely measure oscillation parameters. The general purpose design also allows measurements of neutrinos from many terrestrial and non-terrestrial sources. The JUNO Event Data Model（EDM） plays a central role in the offline software system. It describes the event data entities through all processing stages for both simulated and collected data, and provides persistency via the input/output system. Also, the EDM is designed to enable flexible event handling such as event navigation, as well as the splitting of MC IBD signals and mixing of MC backgrounds. This paper describes the design, implementation and performance of the JUNO EDM.

The Proportional Hazards Model for Multiple Type Recurrent Gap Times

Recurrent events data and gap times between recurrent events are frequently encountered in many clinical and observational studies,and often more than one type of recurrent events is of interest.In this paper,we consider a proportional hazards model for multiple type recurrent gap times data to assess the effect of covaxiates on the censored event processes of interest.An estimating equation approach is used to obtain the estimators of regression coefficients and baseline cumulative hazard functions.We examine asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators.Finite sample properties of these estimators are demonstrated by simulations.

An Emergency Scenario Reconstruction System Based on ESMM Event Situation Model

In order to keep decision-makers better informed with emergencies, it is useful to retrieve the user-oriented disaster relevant event information in an aggregated results list through meta-search engine. However, emergent event is dynamic which makes it difficult to use fixed search word or word combinations. This paper proposes an event situation monitoring model（ESMM） event detection model, which realizes heuristic query word vector dynamic expanding by adopting emergency fuzzy scenario reasoning ontology cluster. Disaster event facet information automatic searching is discussed as an example in this paper. The experimental results show that the proposed method can increase accuracy and extra clues not supplied by commercial search engines, which can be used as a supplement information source for government and individuals.

Time-varying latent model for longitudinal data with informative observation and terminal event times

Longitudinal data often occur in follow-up studies, and in many situations, there may exist informative observation times and a dependent terminal event such as death that stops the follow-up. We propose a semiparametric mixed effect model with time-varying latent effects in the analysis of longitudinal data with informative observation times and a dependent terminal event. Estimating equation approaches are developed for parameter estimation, and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a bladder cancer study is provided.

TABS: Transforming automatically BPMN models into blockchain smart contracts

Research on blockchains addresses multiple issues,with one being the automated creation of smart contracts.Developing smart contract methods is more difficult than mainstream software development as the underlying blockchain infrastructure poses additional complexity.We report on a new approach to developing smart contracts with the objective of automating the process to increase developer efficiency and reduce the risk of errors introduced by software developers.To support industry adoption,we use Business Process Model and Notation(BPMN)modeling to describe an application while targeting applications in the trade vertical.We describe a system that transforms a BPMN model into a multi-modal model that combines Discrete Event(DE)modeling for concurrency with Hierarchical State Machines(HSMs)to represent application functionality.Then,further transformations are used to transform the DE-HSM model into methods in smart contracts.The system lets the modeler decide which of the independent patterns should be transformed into methods of a separate smart contract that is deployed on a sidechain for the purpose of(i)reducing processing costs and/or(ii)providing privacy so that other participants in the smart contract do not have visibility into the processing of the pattern.We also briefly describe a proof-of-concept tool we built to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach.

Colored Nets as a Formal Approach to Event-Driven Interfaces

Modern object-oriented interactive applications have a tendency to be dguult to specie and to des l'gnbecause of dynamicity A formal model based on the integration of communicative nets and colored nets withmpchronous channels is proposed ic cater for this need. Three kinds of nets modeling fore e components of interfaceare given in this paper.The model provides natural descriptions of multi-thread dialogs and the concurrent executingof user interface and aPPlication Procedures and can facilitate rapid protonning and automatic interface codegeneration.

An Approach to User Interface Specification with Attribute Grammars

An approach to supporting user interfaces using an attribute grammmar combined with an event model is described. The main emphasis is how to represent a multi-thread dialogue model in direct manipulation user interfaces. It is shown that control sequence within dialogues, communication with other dialogues,and some computations for applications can be specified with a syntactic and semantic notation. The attribute grammar specification can be implemented using an attribute grammar interpreter embedded in the runtime structure supporting communication, synchronization, and dialogue execution.