Capital Account Openness,Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth:International Experiences and Implications

Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.

The Influence of Exchange Rate on the Volume of Japanese Manufacturing Export

This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of Japanese manufacturing export. The volatility in yen is shown by conditional variance from EGARCH （Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity） model, allowing for asymmetric effects that a shock of an appreciation of the yen is different from that of a depreciation of the yen. The export action model including exchange rate volatility is constructed based on VAR （Vector Auto Regressive） model to examine the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the volume of export. Tests are performed for typical eight kinds of industry in Japan. Few empirical studies focus on each Japanese industry export. Results indicate significant negative effects of exchange rate volatility on most manufacturing exports. In addition, this paper analyzes the each industry, featurc of the influence of exchange rate on the volume of Japanese export. The authors find that equipment industries occupying 60% or more of total Japanese exports especially tend to receive negative influence of exchange.

Performance of Islamic and conventional stock indices:empirical evidence from an emerging economy

Background:This study aims to investigate the extent to which the conditional volatilities of both Shari’ah compliant stock and conventional stock are related to those of interest rate and exchange rate in the emerging economy of Pakistan.Methods:We used KMI 30 and KSE 100 indices for Islamic and conventional stock for the period of July 2008 to November 2013.We employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic in the mean(GARCH-M)model.This framework relaxes constancy assumption of classical linear regression(CLRM)model and allows exchange rate and interest rate volatility to evolve over time.The GARCHM framework also reveals results about risk-return trade-off in the context of both Islamic and conventional stock indices.Results:The findings show positive and statistically significant effect of interest rate volatility on KSE-100,whereas KMI-30 remains unaffected by the same.Exchange rate volatility is found to be significant for both conventional and Islamic indices.The relationship of risk coefficient(γ)and stocks returns,as expected,is positive and statistically significant for both KMI-30 and KSE-100.This result is consistent with the theory of risk-return trade-off.The results of parametric t-test show significant difference between returns of both indices.This implies that Shari’ah compliant stock index(KMI-30)of Pakistan underperforms its conventional counterpart.Conclusion:By using different performance measures(Sharp ratio,Jensen alpha,Treynor ratio),this study also investigates the hypothesis that Islamic stock index has inferior performance compared with unscreened conventional counterparts due to availability of a smaller investment universe,increased monitoring costs,and limited diversification.

Why Does the World Need a Reserve Asset with a Hard Anchor？,

From the 1970s, the global currency system has two features： the use of one or a few sovereign currencies as the global reserve asset and the floating exchange rate regime between major currencies. This paper points out that the costs of the dollar＇s use as an international reserve currency exceed the benefits for both the US and the rest of the world. These costs include the exporting of American manufacturing as a byproduct of its current account deficit needed to supply its currency to the rest of the world. In addition to the detriment to trade from unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations, the termination of the U.S. obligation to redeem its currency for gold also removed an important restraint on deficit financing for the US and many other countries in the short-run, thus promoting excessive leverage that was a major contributor to the 2008 financial crisis. The paper suggests replacing several main countries＇ currencies in international reserves with a real Special Drawing Right （SDR） issued according to currency board rules.