RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Trend Analysis of Exchange Rate of the Ghana Cedi against the US Dollar Using Time Series

Exchange rate volatility or its stability is a key determinant of the state of a country’s economy. The Ghana cedi’s performance against the US dollar in recent times has been the worse in the past decade. This has resulted in high inflation, high cost of living and high cost of production in Ghana. Despite the recent economic recovery growth, the cedi continues to strife in high rate of exchange against the dollar. This study examines and models a trend, and makes predictions of future rates of the cedis against the US dollar. Methodology: The study used a 13-year data of exchange rates of Ghana cedi and the US dollar spanning from 2010 to mid-2023 from the Bank of Ghana’s economic data on exchange rates, Ghana Stock Exchange and the World Bank. The ARIMA and SARIMA models were used to model the trends and for forecasting, taking into the consideration the asymmetric and seasonal effect of the data. Results: The outputs show that, the Ghana cedi will continue to rise but steadily against the US dollar for the remaining months of 2023 except in December, and continue to decline afterwards through into 2024. Conclusion: The cedi continues to weaken in value and the strength of its purchasing power. A weaker currency depicts a “junk” economy which affects its foreign investment. As the US dollar continues to rise, the Government and policy makers must implement effective policies to stabilize its rise against the cedi. Export of commodities must increase in addition to import restrictions to balance trade deficit and to strengthen the Ghana Cedi.

The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.

Influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income from the perspective of transmission asymmetry

Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.

Analysis on the Option of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

This paper analyses four effects of pegging exchange rate regime： effects on government policymaking, nominal anchor, domestic currency appreciation expectation, and currericy speculative attacks. Based on this, the paper concludes that China should give up RMB pegging exchange rate regime at present, carry out RMB floating exchange rate regime in the long term and RMB exchange rate target zone regime in the mid and short term.

Employment and Wage Effects of RMB Exchange Rate for Manufacturing Sectors in China and the US

By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.

The Concrete Analysis of the Change of Import and Export Trade of Chinese Enterprises Is Based on the Perspective of RMB Exchange Rate

The change of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises actually reflects the appreciation and depreciation of RMB,which are closely related to the total volume of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises and the formulation of corresponding foreign exchange measures.Generally speaking,the rise of the RMB exchange rate means the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to imports,while the decline of the RMB exchange rate means the depreciation of the RMB and the decline of the price of export commodities,so it has a greater price advantage and is conducive to exports.Chinese enterprises should correctly grasp the rise and fall of RMB exchange rate and carry out import and export trade reasonably when developing abroad.

Analysis of the Moderator Effect of RMB Exchange-- Rate on Export The Case of Guangdong Province in China

An important limitation of the research literatures which study the effect on the export of the real effective exchange rates is the lack of application of interaction or moderator effect among the independent variables. To remedy this lacuna, the authors developed a model in which real effective exchange rate moderated the effect of import and utilization of foreign capital on export. The sample comprised 11 years＇ data in Guangdong China. The result showed that real effective exchange rate of RMB affected the export by interacting with utilization of foreign capital. Moreover, to some degree, the real effective exchange rate can also act as moderator between import and export.

汇率风险、双边关系与中国纺织产业OFDI

纺织产业是传统制造业的典型代表,也是全球化最高的产业之一,随着中国纺织产业成为第五次国际转移的投资方,汇率风险成为纺织产业对外投资的重要风险之一。基于2015—2019年中国纺织产业对56个东道国(地区)的对外直接投资面板数据,实证分析了东道国(地区)汇率风险、双边关系对中国纺织产业对外直接投资的影响。研究结果表明:中国纺织产业对外直接投资存在汇率风险偏好特征;双边关系显著降低中国纺织产业对外直接投资的汇率风险偏好倾向;双边关系的调节效应在未与中国签订货币互换协议、非洲地区国家样本中更加显著。

Causes of the exchange rate with the U.S. trade deficit

With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade deficit is largely due to the current international monetary system, international division of labor and the trade structure determined by it, low savings rates and other factors.

Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

Influential factors on the exchange rate of dissolved inorganic nutrients at the sediment-water interface in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Incubation experiments are carried out to study the exchange rates of dissolved inorganic nutrients including silicate, phosphate, ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate (vSiO3-Si, vPO4-P, vNH4-N, vNO2-N and vNO3-N) at the sediment-water interface in the Jiaozhou Bay. Major factors influencing the exchange rates are discussed in detail, which include the dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in porewater (Cpw), water and clay contents, and grain size of the sediments (CH2O, Cclay and GSsed). The results may provide insight into the dynamics of nutrient transport and the environmental capacity of nutrients in Jiaozhou Bay, and should be beneficial to solving the problems caused by excessive nutrient input this area.

Machine Learning-based USD/PKR Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data

This study proposes an approach based on machine learning to forecast currency exchange rates by applying sentiment analysis to messages on Twitter(called tweets).A dataset of the exchange rates between the United States Dollar(USD)and the Pakistani Rupee(PKR)was formed by collecting information from a forex website as well as a collection of tweets from the business community in Pakistan containing finance-related words.The dataset was collected in raw form,and was subjected to natural language processing by way of data preprocessing.Response variable labeling was then applied to the standardized dataset,where the response variables were divided into two classes:“1”indicated an increase in the exchange rate and“−1”indicated a decrease in it.To better represent the dataset,we used linear discriminant analysis and principal component analysis to visualize the data in three-dimensional vector space.Clusters that were obtained using a sampling approach were then used for data optimization.Five machine learning classifiers—the simple logistic classifier,the random forest,bagging,naïve Bayes,and the support vector machine—were applied to the optimized dataset.The results show that the simple logistic classifier yielded the highest accuracy of 82.14%for the USD and the PKR exchange rates forecasting.

Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI on Technical Efficiency—A Case Study of Vietnamese Agricultural Sector

The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.

Discussion of Exchange Rate Fluctcation Using IS-LM Model

This paper analyses the essential cause of exchange market fluctuation by using IS－LM model: excessive investment causes goods overstocking in goods market, which brings about supply exceeding demand:financial market loses equilibrium as well, resulting imbalance of money demand and money supply, which causes interest rate to drop. This Paper gives the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate: as a result of interest rate dropping, exchange rate is in great turbulence,whose fluctuation range relates to some coefficients.

Influence of magnetic field sweep rate on the hysteresis loops of Ni0.8Fe0.2/Fe0.5Mn0.5 exchange bias bilayer

The influence of the magnetic field sweep rate on the hysteresis loops of exchange bias Ni0.8Fe0.2/Fe0.5Mn0.5 bilayers has been investigated with a vibrating sample magnetometer. It was found that the sweep rate of 13.6 kA/4πms is high enough to bring about obvious changes in the hysteresis loops of the exchange bias bilayer. High sweep rate in the magnetization reversal stage enlarges the coercivity of the sample, while high sweep rate in the saturation state reduces the coercivity. The above phenomena were attributed to magnetic viscosity in the ferromagnetic layer enhanced by the interface exchange interaction and domain magnetization reversals assisted by thermal fluctuation in the antiferromagnetic layer respectively.