为提高采煤工作面涌水量预测准确度,收集大量工作面涌水量观测数据进行整理、统计、分析,将涌水量稳定性、周期性和季节性特征考虑在内,提出1种基于数据驱动的完全自适应模态分解算法(CEEMDAN)和改进的混合时间序列模型工作面涌水量预...为提高采煤工作面涌水量预测准确度,收集大量工作面涌水量观测数据进行整理、统计、分析,将涌水量稳定性、周期性和季节性特征考虑在内,提出1种基于数据驱动的完全自适应模态分解算法(CEEMDAN)和改进的混合时间序列模型工作面涌水量预测方法。该方法利用CEEMDAN处理涌水量数据,构建麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)并行级联而成的混合时间序列模型对工作面涌水量进行预测。研究结果表明:该模型预测结果与真实数据相差更小,平均绝对误差为6.36 m 3/h,均方根误差为10.6 m 3/h,模型拟合系数为0.95,更适用于工作面涌水量预测。研究结果可为矿井工作面涌水量预测及防控提供参考。展开更多
Aiming at mitigating end effects of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, a new approach motivated by the non- equidistance grey model （NGM） termed as NGM（1,1） is proposed. Other than trapezoid formulas, the cubic...Aiming at mitigating end effects of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, a new approach motivated by the non- equidistance grey model （NGM） termed as NGM（1,1） is proposed. Other than trapezoid formulas, the cubic Hermite spline is put forward to improve the accuracy of derivative to the accumulated generating operation （AGO） series. Hopefully, it is worth stressing that the proposed NGM（1,1） model is particularly useful for predicting uncertainty data. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons between the proposed approach and other well-known algorithms are carried out through computer simulations on synthetic as well as natural signals. Simulation results demonstrate the proposed method can reduce end effects and improve the decomposition results of EMD.展开更多
High resolution image fusion is a significant focus in the field of image processing. A new image fusion model is presented based on the characteristic level of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）. The intensity hue ...High resolution image fusion is a significant focus in the field of image processing. A new image fusion model is presented based on the characteristic level of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）. The intensity hue saturation （IHS） transform of the multi-spectral image first gives the intensity image. Thereafter, the 2D EMD in terms of row-column extension of the 1D EMD model is used to decompose the detailed scale image and coarse scale image from the high-resolution band image and the intensity image. Finally, a fused intensity image is obtained by reconstruction with high frequency of the high-resolution image and low frequency of the intensity image and IHS inverse transform result in the fused image. After presenting the EMD principle, a multi-scale decomposition and reconstruction algorithm of 2D EMD is defined and a fusion technique scheme is advanced based on EMD. Panchromatic band and multi-spectral band 3,2,1 of Quickbird are used to assess the quality of the fusion algorithm. After selecting the appropriate intrinsic mode function （IMF） for the merger on the basis of EMD analysis on specific row （column） pixel gray value series, the fusion scheme gives a fused image, which is compared with generally used fusion algorithms （wavelet, IHS, Brovey）. The objectives of image fusion include enhancing the visibility of the image and improving the spatial resolution and the spectral information of the original images. To assess quality of an image after fusion, information entropy and standard deviation are applied to assess spatial details of the fused images and correlation coefficient, bias index and warping degree for measuring distortion between the original image and fused image in terms of spectral information. For the proposed fusion algorithm, better results are obtained when EMD algorithm is used to perform the fusion experience.展开更多
Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode d...Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine （ELM）, where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error （MAE） for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively.展开更多
This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and u...This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate forecast of the time-varying mortality index. The observed pattern of the mortality rates shows a different variability at different ages, highlighting that the homoscedasticity hypothesis is quite unrealistic. Thus, in a second step, the paper aims to produce more reliable mortality forecasting, focusing on the errors in the estimation of the model parameters. The robustness of the estimated parameter is analysed throughout an experimental strategy which allows to assess the robustness of the Lee Carter model by inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The graphical and numerical results are tested by means of a comparison in terms of prediction accuracy.展开更多
文摘为提高采煤工作面涌水量预测准确度,收集大量工作面涌水量观测数据进行整理、统计、分析,将涌水量稳定性、周期性和季节性特征考虑在内,提出1种基于数据驱动的完全自适应模态分解算法(CEEMDAN)和改进的混合时间序列模型工作面涌水量预测方法。该方法利用CEEMDAN处理涌水量数据,构建麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)并行级联而成的混合时间序列模型对工作面涌水量进行预测。研究结果表明:该模型预测结果与真实数据相差更小,平均绝对误差为6.36 m 3/h,均方根误差为10.6 m 3/h,模型拟合系数为0.95,更适用于工作面涌水量预测。研究结果可为矿井工作面涌水量预测及防控提供参考。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60975009 61171197+6 种基金 61174016)the Innovative Team Program of the NNSF of China (61021002)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (2012CB720000)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2011FM005)the Promotive Research Fund for Excellent Young and Middle-aged Scientists of Shandong Province (BS2010DX001)the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20092302110037 20102302110033)
文摘Aiming at mitigating end effects of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, a new approach motivated by the non- equidistance grey model （NGM） termed as NGM（1,1） is proposed. Other than trapezoid formulas, the cubic Hermite spline is put forward to improve the accuracy of derivative to the accumulated generating operation （AGO） series. Hopefully, it is worth stressing that the proposed NGM（1,1） model is particularly useful for predicting uncertainty data. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons between the proposed approach and other well-known algorithms are carried out through computer simulations on synthetic as well as natural signals. Simulation results demonstrate the proposed method can reduce end effects and improve the decomposition results of EMD.
文摘High resolution image fusion is a significant focus in the field of image processing. A new image fusion model is presented based on the characteristic level of empirical mode decomposition （EMD）. The intensity hue saturation （IHS） transform of the multi-spectral image first gives the intensity image. Thereafter, the 2D EMD in terms of row-column extension of the 1D EMD model is used to decompose the detailed scale image and coarse scale image from the high-resolution band image and the intensity image. Finally, a fused intensity image is obtained by reconstruction with high frequency of the high-resolution image and low frequency of the intensity image and IHS inverse transform result in the fused image. After presenting the EMD principle, a multi-scale decomposition and reconstruction algorithm of 2D EMD is defined and a fusion technique scheme is advanced based on EMD. Panchromatic band and multi-spectral band 3,2,1 of Quickbird are used to assess the quality of the fusion algorithm. After selecting the appropriate intrinsic mode function （IMF） for the merger on the basis of EMD analysis on specific row （column） pixel gray value series, the fusion scheme gives a fused image, which is compared with generally used fusion algorithms （wavelet, IHS, Brovey）. The objectives of image fusion include enhancing the visibility of the image and improving the spatial resolution and the spectral information of the original images. To assess quality of an image after fusion, information entropy and standard deviation are applied to assess spatial details of the fused images and correlation coefficient, bias index and warping degree for measuring distortion between the original image and fused image in terms of spectral information. For the proposed fusion algorithm, better results are obtained when EMD algorithm is used to perform the fusion experience.
基金supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.201491)“Light of West China” Program(201491)
文摘Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine （ELM）, where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error （MAE） for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively.
文摘This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate forecast of the time-varying mortality index. The observed pattern of the mortality rates shows a different variability at different ages, highlighting that the homoscedasticity hypothesis is quite unrealistic. Thus, in a second step, the paper aims to produce more reliable mortality forecasting, focusing on the errors in the estimation of the model parameters. The robustness of the estimated parameter is analysed throughout an experimental strategy which allows to assess the robustness of the Lee Carter model by inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The graphical and numerical results are tested by means of a comparison in terms of prediction accuracy.
