ENHANCED REGIONAL NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM AND ITS PERFORMANCE

During the '8th Five-Year Plan' (1991~1995), a new operational mesoscale numerical predictionsystem is developed, which is called the 'Regional Enhanced Numerical Prediction System'. The system possesses higher resolution (45 km grid sise in horizontal, 10 layers in vertital), as well as fullphysical processes, and can be run operationally in the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Centre(GRMC). A plenty of experiments indicate its better performance in predicting various weather systemsaffecting the south of China, especially the typhoon and heavy rain in the 'early floods stage' (annuallyspeaking). Verification of the prediction of all typhoon cases affecting the region in 1993~1995 indicatethat rainfall prediction scores of the system are obviously higher than those of the LAFS in the NationalMeteorological Centre, and track prediction error is no larger than those of NWPs in main world centressuch as the National Hurrieane Center of NOAA and the JMA. The aim of the paper is to give a generalized introduction and analysis to the system and its performance.

The idea and project of the “Medium－Scale Experiment Field for Earthquake Prediction”──Research on observations and applications of mining earthquake in Mentougou Coal Mine

A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of over M L1.0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized . Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes.

Experimental and numerical prediction of railway induced vibration

In this paper,both measurements and numerical simulations of railway induced vibration are discussed.A measurement campaign has been carried out along the high-speed railway track in Lincent,Belgium.The experimental determination of transfer functions and vibration velocity during train passages are discussed.A numerical model is introduced to predict the transfer functions and the vibration velocity during train passages.The comparison of experimental and numerical results demonstrates the importance of accurate numerical models and input data.The results are obtained in the framework of the development of a hybrid prediction method,where numerical and experimental data can be combined to improve the prediction accuracy for railway induced vibration.

A numerical experiment for the simulating effects of Kuwait oil fire and volcanoes in Philippines and Japan on the general circulation and climate

With an AGCM/ mixed-layer ocean model, a numerical experiment to investigate the ef-fects of Kuwait oil fire and volcanoes in Philippines and Japan on atmospheric general cireulationand climate is camed out. It is shown from the simulation that the effect of smoke on climate issignificant near the smoke sources, and quite weak-and-indirect in the distant areas. In the experi-ment, it is not found that the smoke had a significant effect on SST anomialy along the tropicaloceans and flood in Yangtze-Huaihe river's basin of China in the spring and summer of 1991.

Experimental study of mean overtopping discharge at perforated caissons for non-impulsive waves

In this study, hydraulic model tests are carried out to investigate the mean overtopping discharge at perforated caisson breakwaters for non-impulsive waves. Based on the experimental data, the mean overtopping discharges of perforated and nonperforated caissons are compared. It is found that when the relative crest freeboard is smaller than 1.6, the mean overtopping discharge of a breakwater can be reduced by at least half by using perforated caissons with 35% porosity instead of nonperforated caissons. The effects of the relative crest freeboard, the caisson porosity and perforation shape, the relative wave chamber width and the relative water depth on the mean overtopping discharge at perforated caissons are clarified. Then,predictive formulas for the mean overtopping discharge at perforated caissons are developed. The predictive formulas based on the experimental data are valid in a wide range of the relative crest freeboard and involve the effects of the caisson porosity and the relative water depth. The predictive formulas developed in this study are of significance for the hydraulic design of perforated caissons.