Empirical Research on the Influence of Export Market Diversification on Total Factor Productivity: Based on the Perspective of Trade Protection

This paper mainly explores the impact of export market diversification as an important measure to deal with trade friction on firms total factor productivity.Firstly,this article focuses on the theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism,including risk diversification,reversal effect and spillover effect.Based on the sample data of Chinese manufacturing export enterprises from 2000 to 2007,this paper conducts an empirical test on the relationship between export market diversification and total factor productivity.The result indicates that export market diversification has a significant positive effect on the total factor productivity of enterprises.After considering the endogenous problem,by controlling the fixed effects,using the two-stage least square method and changing the duration of the sample for robustness analysis,the results are still consistent.In addition,the role of diversification policy in total factor productivity presents heterogeneous characteristics in terms of different types of enterprise ownership,export intensity,industry competition,trade methods,and the development degree of exporting market.Accordingly,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.

The Impact of High-standard Free Trade Areas on the Diversification of China's Export Products: Expanding Market or Intensifying Competition?

In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products, this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification. Building upon a trade model with multiproduct firms, we discover that the effect of trade agreement depth on export diversification is multifaceted, depending on the relative magnitude of the “market expansion effect” and the “competition intensification effect.” Through empirical analysis of China's exports to 132 countries (or regions) from 2000 to 2015, we find that the deepening of trade agreements affected China's export diversification negatively. This negative correlation was predominantly due to the similarity in comparative advantages between China and its trade partners, leading to the “competition intensification effect” overshadowing the “market expansion effect.” We also note that “natural” agreements, when deepened, were more likely to affect China's export diversification adversely than their “non-natural” counterparts. Moreover, as export diversification increased, the marginal impact of deepening trade agreements exhibited an inverted U-shaped trajectory.