Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise t...Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.展开更多
As the major primary energy importer in the world,China has engaged in considerable efforts to ensure energy security.However,little attention has been paid to China’s embodied primary energy exports.Separating the i...As the major primary energy importer in the world,China has engaged in considerable efforts to ensure energy security.However,little attention has been paid to China’s embodied primary energy exports.Separating the international export from regional final demand,this paper focuses on quantifying provincial primary energy requirement arising from China’s exports,and tracing its concrete interprovincial supply chains using multi-regional input-output analysis and structural path analysis.Results show that China’s embodied primary energy uses in exports(EEE)reached 633.01 Mtce in 2012,compared to 565.15 Mtce in 2007.Four fifths of the EEE were supplied through interprovincial trade.Eastern coastal provinces accounted for nearly 70%of the national total EEE,while their primary energy supply mainly sourced from the central and western provinces.Most interprovincial supply chain paths of embodied primary energy exports were traced to the coal mining sectors of Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi.Critical receiving sectors in the final export provinces were Chemical industry,Metallurgy,Electronic equipment,Textile and other manufacturing sectors.Important transmission sectors were Electricity and hot water production and supply and Petroleum refining,coking,etc.In view of the specific role of exports in primary energy requirements,provincial energy uses are largely dependent on its domestic trade position and degrees of industrial participation in the global economy.Managing critical industrial sectors and supply chain paths associated with the international exports provide new insights to ensure China’s energy security and to formulate targeted energy policies.展开更多
文摘Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.
基金This study has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71774161 and 71804194)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,No.2722019JCT006).
文摘As the major primary energy importer in the world,China has engaged in considerable efforts to ensure energy security.However,little attention has been paid to China’s embodied primary energy exports.Separating the international export from regional final demand,this paper focuses on quantifying provincial primary energy requirement arising from China’s exports,and tracing its concrete interprovincial supply chains using multi-regional input-output analysis and structural path analysis.Results show that China’s embodied primary energy uses in exports(EEE)reached 633.01 Mtce in 2012,compared to 565.15 Mtce in 2007.Four fifths of the EEE were supplied through interprovincial trade.Eastern coastal provinces accounted for nearly 70%of the national total EEE,while their primary energy supply mainly sourced from the central and western provinces.Most interprovincial supply chain paths of embodied primary energy exports were traced to the coal mining sectors of Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi.Critical receiving sectors in the final export provinces were Chemical industry,Metallurgy,Electronic equipment,Textile and other manufacturing sectors.Important transmission sectors were Electricity and hot water production and supply and Petroleum refining,coking,etc.In view of the specific role of exports in primary energy requirements,provincial energy uses are largely dependent on its domestic trade position and degrees of industrial participation in the global economy.Managing critical industrial sectors and supply chain paths associated with the international exports provide new insights to ensure China’s energy security and to formulate targeted energy policies.
