Domestic, External Demands：Dual-Engines of China＇s Growti

China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.

External Demand Decline-caused Industry Collapse in China

Industry collapse has become an importantphenomenon in China＇s recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-caused industry collapse. The model reveals that the combination of large-scale decline in external demand with a horizontal domestic supply curve causes the domestic export industry to undergo a sharp decrease in output in a short period of time, which further leads to a sharp decline in employment. The conventional stabilization policy is less effective in coping with this sudden industry collapse. The Chinese Government needs to formulate an appropriate structural industry stabilization policy to cope with the sudden industry collapse, and, in particular, to implement a direct employment aid program to deal with unemployment resulting from the industry collapse.

Export fluctuation and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry--The inspection of the causes of excess capacity from the perspective of external demand

Intuitively speaking,there is an inverse proportional relationship between exports and overcapacity,which means in export’s busy season enterprises would expand output and improve capacity utilisation rate but control yields to avoid dull sale in slack season,causing exacerbated excess capacity.However,this is just the reflections of“sales effect”on overcapacity by export fluctuation.For some enterprises,there is indeed“competition effect”which may alleviate overcapacity because enterprises face even more fierce domestic competition for the sake of weak exports and may increase the utilisation load of existing capacity in order to cut costs.A test is conducted in this paper to verify the relationship between export fluctuation and excess capacity based on data of China's manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2013.The overall results indicate that export fluctuation is not the significant cause for excess capacity.In the small and medium-sized enterprises or in industries with higher proportion of non-state capital,the negative relationship between exports and excess capacity is more obvious,with“sales effect”taking a dominant position.On the other hand,under the influence of“competition effect”,the relationship between the two may be positive.Thus,external demand shocks exert different influence on the alleviation of excess capacity of different industries,and extensively driven exports may not have anticipated effect on the dissolution of the excess capacity.To regulate overcapacity with the aid of external market,a fair and orderly competition environment should be provided to the export subjects of different size and ownerships.

China＇s Developing Open Economy： Myths and Realities

Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-oriented＂ economy. China＇s trade imbalance in the global economy is merely a result of economic disparities between the world＇s more- and less- developed regions combined with the rational optimization of resources. The current situation, wherein China appears to be heavily export-oriented, stems naturally from the real economy moving towards a dynamic equilibrium against a backdrop of economic globalization and deepening international specialization. We have concluded that domestic consumption and external demand reinforce each other, and the development of an open economy in China is therefore not at odds with expanding domestic consumption.

Building an open economic powerhouse driven by domestic demand

This paper,starting from an accounting of internal and external demand,first examines the relationship between the two under strict conditions and then points out the preferences of different countries for internal demand and external demand by relaxing the hypothesis gradually.On the basis of general theories,the evolution of the relationship between internal and external demand in China’s economic growth is studied to explain that expanding internal demand and establishing an open economic powerhouse driven by internal demand is a realistic choice.Specific suggestions on such aspects as investment,urbanization,income,consumption,and distribution are also proposed in the hope of being conducive to related future research.

The Enigma of Under-urbanization:An Explanation Based on International Trade

To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where industrialization was incomplete. Our findings indicate that if, in an open economy, there is a substantial labor surplus and in which domestic goods and services can be sold to foreign markets, there will be a significantly positive correlation between the net export ratio and the degree to which urbanization lags behind industrialization; countries or regions with higher marketization level, lower urban unemployment rate and poorer public health facilities are more likely to be under- urbanized; and an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between under-urbanization and percapita GDR