结合机器学习的SA湍流模型闭合系数修正

将修正Morris分类筛选法与极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)相结合,在计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)数据驱动下,用于SA(Spalart-Allmaras)湍流模型闭合系数的修正.利用分类筛选法有效缩小闭合系数研究范围,同时依据XGBoost方法在小规模数据集下取得精度较高的拟合模型,有效提升系数修正效率.在三维DLR-F6-WB构型下进行了数值实验,实验结果显示利用本方法能够在三维复杂模型上基于小样本数据进行系数修正,修正后的升阻力系数计算精度得到了显著提升.

Competitive oxidation behavior of Ni-based superalloy GH4738 at extreme temperature

A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Cascaded ELM-Based Joint Frame Synchronization and Channel Estimation over Rician Fading Channel with Hardware Imperfections

Due to the interdependency of frame synchronization(FS)and channel estimation(CE),joint FS and CE(JFSCE)schemes are proposed to enhance their functionalities and therefore boost the overall performance of wireless communication systems.Although traditional JFSCE schemes alleviate the influence between FS and CE,they show deficiencies in dealing with hardware imperfection(HI)and deterministic line-of-sight(LOS)path.To tackle this challenge,we proposed a cascaded ELM-based JFSCE to alleviate the influence of HI in the scenario of the Rician fading channel.Specifically,the conventional JFSCE method is first employed to extract the initial features,and thus forms the non-Neural Network(NN)solutions for FS and CE,respectively.Then,the ELMbased networks,named FS-NET and CE-NET,are cascaded to capture the NN solutions of FS and CE.Simulation and analysis results show that,compared with the conventional JFSCE methods,the proposed cascaded ELM-based JFSCE significantly reduces the error probability of FS and the normalized mean square error(NMSE)of CE,even against the impacts of parameter variations.

Isolated deep convections over the Tibetan Plateau in the rainy season during 2001–2020

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is a prevalent region for convection systems due to its unique thermodynamic forcing.This study investigated isolated deep convections(IDCs),which have a smaller spatial and temporal size than mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),over the TP in the rainy season(June-September)during 2001–2020.The authors used satellite precipitation and brightness temperature observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission.Results show that IDCs mainly concentrate over the southern TP.The IDC number per rainy season decreases from around 140 over the southern TP to around 10 over the northern TP,with an average 54.2.The initiation time of IDCs exhibits an obvious diurnal cycle,with the peak at 1400–1500 LST and the valley at 0900–1000 LST.Most IDCs last less than five hours and more than half appear for only one hour.IDCs generally have a cold cloud area of 7422.9 km^(2),containing a precipitation area of approximately 65%.The larger the IDC,the larger the fraction of intense precipitation it contains.IDCs contribute approximately 20%–30%to total precipitation and approximately 30%–40%to extreme precipitation over the TP,with a larger percentage in July and August than in June and September.In terms of spatial distribution,IDCs contribute more to both total precipitation and extreme precipitation over the TP compared to the surrounding plain regions.IDCs over the TP account for a larger fraction than MCSs,indicating the important role of IDCs over the region.

Research progress on the water vapor channel within the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon, China

The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program tasked a research team with the“Investigation of the water vapor channel of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon(INVC)”in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau(TP).This paper summarizes the scientific achievements obtained from the data collected by the INVC observation network and highlights the progress in investigating the development of heavy rainfall events associated with water vapor changes.The rain gauge network of the INVC can represent the impacts of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon(YGC)topography on precipitation at the hourly scale.The microphysical characteristics of the precipitation in the YGC are different than those in the lowland area.The GPM-IMERG(Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement)satellite precipitation data for the YGC region should be calibrated before they are used.The meridional water vapor flux through the YGC is more important than the zonal flux for the precipitation over the southeastern TP.The decreased precipitation around the YGC region is partly due to the decreased meridional water vapor flux passing through the YGC.High-resolution numerical models can benefit precipitation forecasting in this region by using a combination of specific schemes that capture the valley wind and water vapor flux along the valley floor.

Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Stability analysis of longwall top-coal caving face in extra-thick coal seams based on an innovative numerical hydraulic support model

The relationship between support and surrounding rock is of great significance to the control of surrounding rock in mining process.In view of the fact that most of the existing numerical simulation methods construct virtual elements and stress servo control to approximately replace the hydraulic support problem,this paper establishes a new numerical model of hydraulic support with the same working characteristics as the actual hydraulic support by integrating numerical simulation software Rhino,Griddle and FLAC3D,which can realize the simulation of different working conditions.Based on this model,the influence mechanism of the supporting strength of hydraulic support on surrounding rock stress regulation and coal stability in front of the top coal caving face in extra thick coal seam were researched.Firstly,under different support intensity,the abutment pressure of the bearing coal and the coal in front of it presents the “three-stage”evolution characteristics.The influence range of support intensity is 15%–30%.Secondly,1.5 MPa is the upper limit of impact that the support strength can have on the front coal failure area.Thirdly,within a displacement range of 2.76 m from the coal wall,a support strength of1.5 MPa provides optimal control of the horizontal displacement of the coal.

考虑环境因素的电动汽车充电站实时负荷预测模型

为了减少电动汽车大规模集成到电网造成的不利影响,提出了一种能够实现充电站充电负荷精准预测的方法。该方法利用LightGBM(light gradient boosting machine)与XGBoost(eXtreme gradient boosting)模型构建线下-线上组合模型。考虑充电负荷、时间、温度、天气等历史数据,利用LightGBM模型初步建立充电负荷线下预测模型;基于XGBoost模型,以线下预测模型输出负荷和实际负荷的误差为优化目标,实时变化的交通流量为协变量,建立线上预测模型,并对初步预测结果进行误差修正。某市实际充电站预测结果表明,相比于随机森林(RF)、LightGBM模型、XGBoost模型、多层感知机(MLP)以及LightGBM-RF组合模型,该组合模型具有更高的预测精度,同时可以准确预测不同充电站的实时充电负荷。

Extreme massive hydraulic fracturing in deep coalbed methane horizontal wells:A case study of the Linxing Block,eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Deep coal seams show low permeability,low elastic modulus,high Poisson’s ratio,strong plasticity,high fracture initiation pressure,difficulty in fracture extension,and difficulty in proppants addition.We proposed the concept of large-scale stimulation by fracture network,balanced propagation and effective support of fracture network in fracturing design and developed the extreme massive hydraulic fracturing technique for deep coalbed methane(CBM)horizontal wells.This technique involves massive injection with high pumping rate+high-intensity proppant injection+perforation with equal apertures and limited flow+temporary plugging and diverting fractures+slick water with integrated variable viscosity+graded proppants with multiple sizes.The technique was applied in the pioneering test of a multi-stage fracturing horizontal well in deep CBM of Linxing Block,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin.The injection flow rate is 18 m^(3)/min,proppant intensity is 2.1 m^(3)/m,and fracturing fluid intensity is 16.5 m^(3)/m.After fracturing,a complex fracture network was formed,with an average fracture length of 205 m.The stimulated reservoir volume was 1987×10^(4)m^(3),and the peak gas production rate reached 6.0×10^(4)m^(3)/d,which achieved efficient development of deep CBM.

2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 years.As in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the world.Here,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.We also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme events.Hot extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood conditions.Climate extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

Can the desiccation of forests in Tara National Park (Serbia) be attributed to the effects of a drought period?

Forest ecosystems within national parks are threatened by various biotic and abiotic factors.To deter-mine the causes of the desiccation and death of trees in mixed coniferous and deciduous forests of Tara National Park(TNP),Serbia,we monitored defoliation and mortality of individual trees in permanent experimental plots.Data on the desiccation of a large number of trees were gathered by determining the total volume of dry trees and areas of forests under drying stress.The two sets of data were combined to determine the impact of climatic events,primarily drought periods,on the desiccation of forests.Combining data from the International Co-operative Program on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests(ICP Forests)with TNP data helped relate forest desiccation to climate events.Key climate signals were identified by monitoring tree defoliation changes in two permanent experimental plots,and then assessed for their influence on tree desicca-tion in the entire national park.The standardized precipita-tion evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was used for a more detailed analysis of the drought period.Despite the lack of climate data for a certain period,the SPEI index revealed a link between climate variables and the defoliation and desic-cation of forests.Furthermore,the desiccation of trees was preceded by a long drought period.Although mixed conifer-ous-deciduous forests are often considered less vulnerable to natural influences,this study suggests that forest ecosystems can become vulnerable regardless of tree species composi-tion due to multi-year droughts.These findings contribute to a better understanding of important clues for predicting pos-sible future desiccation of forests.Continuous monitoring of the state of forests and of more permanent experimental plots in national parks could provide better quality data and timely responses to stressful situations.

Multiple mixed state variable incremental integration for reconstructing extreme multistability in a novel memristive hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearity

Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.

Assessing the degree of impact from iceberg activities on penguin colonies of Clarence Island

During August and September 2023,three giant icebergs,each bigger than Paris,successively grazed Clarence Island in the northeast of the Antarctic Peninsula,a home to a population of over 100000 penguins.This incident may serve as a clarion call for the increasing iceberg calving due to global warming and its subsequent impact on the Antarctic ecosystem.Here we investigate this unexpected event and employ historical records and probabilistic analyses of iceberg grounding to assess the degree of impact on penguin colonies of Clarence Island.Among the eleven colonies,there is one with low impact,eight with medium impact,and two with high impact.The low-impact colony,Cape Lloyd,is located in the northern part of the island,while the high-impact colonies,False Ridge and Pink Pool,are in the southeast.The eight medium-impact colonies are distributed along both the eastern and western coasts of the island.This study provides essential support for evaluating the impact of iceberg activity on penguin colonies.We argue that penguin colonies located in areas prone to iceberg drift,such as Clarence Island,may become more vulnerable to the heightened risk of iceberg collisions or groundings in the warming future.Therefore,we hope the public will become more aware of the grave impacts of climate change on penguins and underscore the urgent need for effective conservation strategies.

Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

Extreme drought with seasonal timing consistently promotes CH_(4) uptake through inconsistent pathways in a temperate grassland, China

Methane(CH_(4))is a potent greenhouse gas that has a substantial impact on global warming due to its substantial influence on the greenhouse effect.Increasing extreme precipitation events,such as drought,attributable to global warming that caused by greenhouse gases,exert a profound impact on the intricate biological processes associated with CH_(4) uptake.Notably,the timing of extreme drought occurrence emerges as a pivotal factor influencing CH_(4) uptake,even when the degree of drought remains constant.However,it is still unclear how the growing season regulates the response of CH_(4) uptake to extreme drought.In an effort to bridge this knowledge gap,we conducted a field manipulative experiment to evaluate the impact of extreme drought on CH_(4) uptake during early,middle,and late growing stages in a temperate steppe of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.The result showed that all extreme drought consistently exerted positive effects on CH_(4) uptake regardless of seasonal timing.However,the magnitude of this effect varied depending on the timing of season,as evidenced by a stronger effect in early growing stage than in middle and late growing stages.Besides,the pathways of CH_(4) uptake were different from seasonal timing.Extreme drought affected soil physical-chemical properties and aboveground biomass(AGB),consequently leading to changes in CH_(4) uptake.The structural equation model showed that drought both in the early and middle growing stages enhanced CH_(4) uptake due to reduced soil water content(SWC),leading to a decrease in NO_(3)–-N and an increase in pmoA abundance.However,drought in late growing stage primarily enhanced CH_(4) uptake only by decreasing SWC.Our results suggested that seasonal timing significantly contributed to regulate the impacts of extreme drought pathways and magnitudes on CH_(4) uptake.The findings can provide substantial implications for understanding how extreme droughts affect CH_(4) uptake and improve the prediction of potential ecological consequence under future climate change.

Health Effects of Extreme Low Temperatures and Cold Waves on Respiratory Diseases

Climate change is the most significant threat to public health and exerts myriad influences on health,including the occurrence of extreme temperature events.Studies have demonstrated that populations will experience significantly severe cold waves in the future^([1]),increasing the risk of respiratory diseases.

Spontaneous ignition of corrugated cardboard under dynamic high radiant flux

Understanding the response of solid combustibles under high radiant fluxes is critical in predicting the thermal damage from extreme scenarios.Unlike the more moderate radiant fluxes in conventional hydrocarbon fires,extreme events such as strong explosion,concentrated sunlight and directed energy can generate dynamic radiant fluxes at the MW/m^(2) level,creating a unique threat to materials.This study investigates the pyrolysis and spontaneous ignition behaviors of corrugated cardboard by using both experimental and numerical methods,under 10-cm dynamic high radiant fluxes ranging from 0.2 to 1.25 MW/m^(2) for 10 s.The spontaneous ignition process at dynamic high radiant fluxes was recorded and quantified.Two ignition modes were found at the critical radiant flux of 0.4 MW/m^(2),namely hot-gas spontaneous ignition and hot-residue piloted ignition.The latter is not the focus of this paper due to its extremely small probability of occurrence.The research reveals that the increase in flux intensity induces shorter delay times for both pyrolysis and ignition,lower ignition energy density,along with a corresponding rise in the critical mass flux and surface temperature at ignition moment.The simulation results are generally aligned with the experimental findings,despite some divergences may be attributed to model simplifications and parameter assumptions.The work contributes to a deeper insight into material behavior under extreme radiation,with valuable implications for fire safety and hazard assessment.

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.