Risk assessment of corroded casing based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Casing corrosion during CO2 injection or storage results in significant economic loss and increased production risks.Therefore,in this paper,a corroded casing risk assessment model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established to identify potential risks in time.First,the corrosion rate and residual strength characteristics are analyzed through corrosion tests and numerical simulations,respectively,to determine the risk factors that may lead to an accident.Then,an index system for corroded casing risk evaluation is established based on six important factors:temperature,CO2 partial pressure,flow velocity,corrosion radius,corrosion depth and wellhead pressure.Subsequently,the index weights are calculated via the analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the risk level of corroded casing is obtained via the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The corroded casing risk assessment model has been verified by a case well,which shows that the model is valuable and feasible.It provides an effective decision-making method for the risk evaluation of corroded casing in CO2 injection well,which is conductive to improve the wellbore operation efficiency.

Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and neural network in power transformer risk assessment

In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.

Comparison of Risk Assessment for a Nuclear Power Plant Construction Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Recently, plant construction throughout the world, including nuclear power plant construction, has grown significantly. The scale of Korea’s nuclear power plant construction in particular, has increased gradually since it won a contract for a nuclear power plant construction project in the United Arab Emirates in 2009. However, time and monetary resources have been lost in some nuclear power plant construction sites due to lack of risk management ability. The need to prevent losses at nuclear power plant construction sites has become more urgent because it demands professional skills and large-scale resources. Therefore, in this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) were applied in order to make comparisons between decision-making methods, to assess the potential risks at nuclear power plant construction sites. To suggest the appropriate choice between two decision-making methods, a survey was carried out. From the results, the importance and the priority of 24 risk factors, classified by process, cost, safety, and quality, were analyzed. The FAHP was identified as a suitable method for risk assessment of nuclear power plant construction, compared with risk assessment using the AHP. These risk factors will be able to serve as baseline data for risk management in nuclear power plant construction projects.

Research and application of sidewall stability predic-tion method based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy integrative evaluation method

As a difficult problem, sidewall instability has been beset drilling workers all the time. Not only does it cause huge economic losses, but also it determines the success or failure of drilling engineering. Due to complex relationship between various factors which influence sidewall stability, it hasn’t been found a widely applied method to predicate sidewall stability so far. Therefore, in order to formulate corresponding measures to ensure successful drilling, searching for a kind of better method to forecast sidewall stability before drilling becomes an imperative and significant topic for drilling engineering. On the basis of traditional sidewall stability analytical method, we have put forward the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to forecast sidewall stability regulation using physico-chemical performance parameters of the clay mineral. This method has been improved by introducing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Maximum Subjection Principle in the application process. After introducing Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify weight, and Maximum Subjection Principle to obtain evaluation results, it has reduced the influence of human factors and enhanced the accuracy of the fuzzy evaluation results. The application in Hailaer Area indicates that this method can predict sidewall stability of gas-oil well with high credibility and strong practicability.

Evaluating Watershed Vulnerability in Bernalillo County, New Mexico Using Expert Testimony, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, and GIS

Geographic Information System (GIS) software was used to create a watershed vulnerability model for Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Watershed vulnerability was investigated as a function of soil erosion and infiltration criteria: precipitation, land slope, soil erodibility (K-factor), vegetation cover (NDVI), land use, drainage density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and hydrologic soil group. Respective criteria weights were derived using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) supported by expert opinion. A survey of 10 experts, representing New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT), the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (NMBGMR), and the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), provided model input data for an integrated pair-wise comparison matrix for soil erosion and for infiltration. Individual criteria weights were determined by decomposing the respective fuzzy synthetic extent matrix using the centroid method. GIS layers were then combined based on criteria weights to produce maps of soil erosion potential and infiltration potential. A composite watershed vulnerability map was generated by equal weighting of each input map. Model results were categorized into five vulnerability categories: not vulnerable (N), slightly vulnerable (SV), moderately vulnerable (MV), highly vulnerable (HV), and extremely vulnerable (EV). The resulting FAHP/GIS model was used to generate a watershed vulnerability map of discrete areas in Bernalillo County, which may be vulnerable to stormwater run-off events and soil erosion. Such high volume run-off events can cause erosion damage to property and infrastructure. Alternatively, in areas near urban development, stormwater run-off may contribute non-point-source pollutant contamination of New Mexico’s surface water resources. The most problematic areas in Bernalillo County are present in the Eastern and Northwestern portions. However, less than 1% of the total area lies within the lowest and highest vulnerability categories with the majority centered around moderate vulnerability. The results of the model were compared with a previously published crisp AHP method. Both methods showed similar regional vulnerability trends. This MCDS/GIS approach is intended to provide support to local governments and decision makers in selection of suitable structural or nonstructural stormwater control measures.

Risk Assessment M ode of Sale-Leaseback——Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this paper.Then a quantitative analysis of commercial real estate sale-leaseback is carried out.The scientific theoretical analysis is provided in this paper for risk assessment in commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode in China.An effective approach is put forward for sale-leaseback project evaluation and prevention of risk.A useful means is given to supervise commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode for relevant departments and a certain contribution is made to a further sound development of commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode.

A Genetic Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Based Projection Pursuit Method for Selecting Schemes of Water Transportation Projects

The optimal selection of schemes of water transportation projects is a process of choosing a relatively optimal scheme from a number of schemes of water transportation programming and management projects, which is of importance in both theory and practice in water resource systems engineering. In order to achieve consistency and eliminate the dimensions of fuzzy qualitative and fuzzy quantitative evaluation indexes, to determine the weights of the indexes objectively, and to increase the differences among the comprehensive evaluation index values of water transportation project schemes, a projection pursuit method, named FPRM-PP for short, was developed in this work for selecting the optimal water transportation project scheme based on the fuzzy preference relation matrix. The research results show that FPRM-PP is intuitive and practical, the correction range of the fuzzy preference relation matrix [WTHX]A[WT] it produces is relatively small, and the result obtained is both stable and accurate; therefore FPRM-PP can be widely used in the optimal selection of different multi-factor decision-making schemes.

Using Extension Theory and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process on Heterogeneous Wireless Network Selection Algorithm

In order to solve the problem that determining decision factors weights is of subjectivity in heterogeneous wireless network selection algorithm, a network selection algorithm based on extension theory and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed in this paper. In addition, user and operator codetermine the optimal network using the proposed algorithm, which can give consideration to user and operator benefits. The fuzzy judgment matrix is constructed by membership degree of decision factors which is calculated according to extension theory. The comprehensive weight of each decision factor is obtained using FAHP. Finally, the optimal network is selected through total property value ranking of each candidate network under user preference and operator preference. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can select the optimal network efficiently and accurately, satisfy user preference, and implement load balance between networks.

Component-Based Software Trustworthiness Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Model

For a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of the trustworthiness of component-based soft- ware system, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is introduced to establish the analysis model. Combine qualitative and quantitative analyses, the impacts to overall trustworthiness by the different types of components are distinguished. Considering the coupling relationship between components, dividing the system into several layers from target layer to scheme layer, evaluating the scheme advantages disadvantages by group decision-making, the trustworthiness of a typical J2EE structured component-based software is assessed. The trustworthiness asses model of the software components provides an effective methods of operation.

Evaluation of the Safety of Mine Road Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Generally, mine roads are located in the mountain areas, as its complex topography, mostly along the river near the cliffs, steep bend anxious, the mine road design has to adopt lower technical standards relatively and usually is lack of traffic safety facilities. Especially, there are mainly medium-sized vehicles on mine road, under the heavy traffic vehicles affect repeatedly, high frequency of traffic accidents more easily happen in mine road area and cause serious effects on life or property. Combining with the particularity of mine road safety environment, this paper studies the basic theory of safety evaluation, analyses the factors of traffic safety design and special mine terrain conditions, and then establishes mine road safety index system and evaluation model based on the principles such as systematicness, independent indexes, qualitative and quantitative analysis, feasibility, scientificity and reliability. At last, the paper successfully evaluates the safety of road in Huang Mailing phosphate rock area with fuzzy AHP method based on engineering project.

Assessment of Effects of Green Construction by Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Synthetic Judgment Method

The index system, code system, and weights of indexes are established to assess the effects of green construction. The index system consists of index level, factor level and sub-factor level. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weights of indexes, and the consistency test indicate that the weight assignment is reasonable. Using fuzzy synthetic judgment method, the assessment model is built, which includes factor set, weight set and conclusion set. An example is given to demonstrate the assessment procedures.

Risk Assessment of Distributed Energy System Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Risk assessment of distributed energy system often has uncertainty and subjective problems. The problems will have some impact on the results. To solve the problems, a method of improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed. By using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, a hierarchical analysis model is established. And then according to the given judgment matrix of each index layer, we calculate whether it meets the consistency condition. And then if the judgment matrix does not meet the consistency condition, the problem will be solved by the improving of particle swarm optimization (PSO) with Kalman filter. The practice in the distributed energy system shows that the method can not only fully reflect the fuzziness of assessment elements and process, but also reduce the influence of individual subjective factors and better evaluation results can be achieved.

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of bridge quality based on analytical hierarchy process

Bridge quality assessment is an important part in the final acceptance of new bridge construction,and it is also the main basis for the reinforcement or removal of old bridges.We evaluated the weight of each affecting factor to the upper events using progressive analytical hierarchy process(AHP)with the adoption of 3 scaling,reduced the calculation in analytical process,and precluded the nonuniformity of the scaling system.We obtained a comprehensive evaluation system of bridge quality, and verified its practicality and effectiveness using numerical examples.

Sustainable food waste management using modified fuzzy improved analytic hierarchy process:a study of Malaysia

Food waste generation is a pressing issue that requires urgent attention and concerted efforts worldwide.The staggering amount of food wasted each year not only wastes valuable resources but also exacerbates environmental,economic,and social challenges.Food Waste Management(FWM)consists of a complex array of criteria and sub-criteria,and treatments which seems interdependent.There is a need to evaluate the FWM with the help of important criteria and sub-criteria and treatments to address this challenge.In this study,we identified four important criteria,21 sub-criteria,and four alternatives of FWM for the case of Malaysia using the integrated approach of literature review and expert opinions.Further,we employed the approach of Modified Fuzzy Improved Analytical Hierarchy Process(IAHP)to corroborate the interrelationships among the identified criteria and sub-criteria,and their associated treatments.This study undertakes linear normalization methods to transform data into comparable numerical values and the Geometric Mean method to handle uncertainty in human judgments.Moreover,the Centroid method is employed to convert fuzzy weights into crisp sets for ease of interpretation.The results indicate that environmental is the most essential criterion,followed by social,economic,and technical.In addition,air and water pollution is identified as the most critical sub-criteria.Black Soldier Fly is discovered as the most sustainable FWM treatment,since it performs the best while meeting all the criteria and sub-criteria assessed.Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the outputs from the proposed method are robust and reliable.The finding suggests a proper and robust approach to help decision-makers select suitable FWM treatments to tackle various criteria and alternatives especially when handling inconsistent and uncertain judgments during evaluation.

基于AHP-Fuzzy-TOPSIS帕鲁特金矿不同中段开采方法对比优化选择

随着井下开采不断向大埋深作业,通风、安全、排水等作业环境日益复杂,不同采矿方法的选择对矿山的可持续发展显得尤为重要。本文以帕鲁特金矿的开采技术条件为基础,针对4种采矿方法(崩落法、上向分层充填采矿法、分段空场嗣后充填法、梯段空场干式充填法),选取包括生产能力、采切比、损失率、贫化率、作业成本(含充填)、通风条件、生产组织和安全条件8个评价指标,运用AHP-Fuzzy-TOPSIS(层次分析-模糊数学-逼近理想解的排序法)分析模型,计算了2292 m、2050 m和1930 m三个较有代表性的中段的贴合度,并对结果进行了分析,与矿山实际生产情况贴合,验证了该方法的可行性。研究成果为下一步1930 m中段采矿方法的选择提供了理论依据,同时为其他矿井在不同生产阶段最优采矿方法选择提供了一定的借鉴意义。

基于IAHP-FUZZY的装配式建筑施工质量风险评价

在国内建筑业升级发展的背景下,具有较多优点的装配式建筑得到了全面发展。为完善装配式建筑施工过程质量风险评估方式,通过分析研究装配式建筑施工的特点,将装配式建筑施工质量风险评价分为3个阶段:施工准备阶段、施工阶段和施工竣工验收阶段。通过建立一套施工质量风险评价指标体系,采用区间层次分析法确定各指标的对应权重,在该基础上结合隶属度函数和模糊综合评价理论构建装配式建筑施工质量风险评价模型,并将该模型运用到实际工程案例中并验证其可行性。

金融保险集团一体化战略的A-FUZZY分析模型及实证研究

随着金融体系深化改革的持续推进,保险业、证券业和银行业的混业经营变得越来越普遍,为了在全球化市场上获得持久竞争优势,金融机构跨行业经营方式也开始向集团化和一体化趋势发展,金融保险集团的一体化成为全球保险业经营体制的最大创新,对于深化金融改革的中国保险行业来说越发重要。文章基于AHP模糊综合量化评价方法构建科学的金融保险集团一体化战略评价模型,采用专家打分数据进行实证分析,发现在一体化战略中组织能力的权重最高,业务创新和资源整合是金融保险集团一体化战略的重要助推器。

基于AHP-Fuzzy法的某工程设计方案比选研究

基于全寿命周期理论,运用价值工程理论,将影响建设项目设计方案比选的各类因素层次化、条理化、定量化。采用层次分析法评价功能权重指数,采用模糊综合评价确定备选方案的功能系数,采用价值工程法优选方案,以某高校体育馆项目设计方案比选为例,建立基于层次分析法的价值工程设计方案比选模型,对设计单位提供的建设项目3种设计方案备选方案进行比选分析,旨在选定价值指数最大的方案为最佳方案。

Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Harbour Engineering Investment by Hierarchy System Approach

The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.