基于FLO-2D的抽水蓄能电站泥石流模拟分析

针对新疆吐鲁番盆地东侧鄯善县泥石流灾害影响该地区工程建设与发展的问题,以新疆鄯善县抽水蓄能电站下库区泥石流为研究对象,运用FLO-2D数值模拟软件,对不同降雨频率下(P=1%,2%,5%)泥石流沟的发生过程进行模拟。结果表明:在降雨频率P=1%和P=2%的降水条件下,沟内泥石流将冲出淤积在拦沙坝附近,并侵占河道。以库区运行年限100 a计,库区淤积总量为21567 m^(3),对下库区库容产生一定的影响。

基于FLO-2D数值模拟的不同降雨频率工况下八宝镇拱北槽沟泥石流运动特征及危险性评价

近年来,随着降雨量不断增加,泥石流爆发频率呈上升趋势,其运动堆积特性及防治工程措施直接决定泥石流危害程度及影响范围,也是影响泥石流危险度区划的关键因素。因此,对不同工况条件下泥石流堆积特征及危险范围预测具有较强的现实应用价值。FLO-2D作为一款专用于洪水和泥石流模拟的二维软件,能较完整地分析泥石流的运动状态特征,可用于模拟洪水灾害和风险评估,推算流体运动的流速及堆积深度,合理推估淹没面积。该文以拱北槽沟泥石流为例,通过开展野外详细调查,在查明泥石流物源类型、分布特征、物源储量与流域育灾环境的基础上,模拟分析其在不同降雨频率下(10%、5%、2%和1%)的泥石流运动特征,进而确定泥石流灾害威胁范围、堆积深度、流速等特征参数,并在此基础上采用泥石流强度指标对泥石流灾害进行危险性区划评价,为拱北槽沟泥石流的监测预警与风险防控提供技术依据,以此为该地区或者其他祁连山区城镇泥石流灾害防治及国土空间规划提供科学依据及参考建议。

基于FLO-2D的单沟泥石流运动危险性评价

泥石流运动危险性评价是泥石流防灾减灾的有效手段之一。为了探究泥石流运动危险性评价方法的可靠性,以2013年7月10日瓦窑沟泥石流为研究对象,基于FLO-2D模型,再现了瓦窑沟泥石流在100年一遇、50年一遇和20年一遇降雨频率下的运动过程。同时,结合运动危险性评价指标泥石流流深(H)和动量(Hv),得到了不同降雨频率下的危险性分区结果。研究表明,基于FLO-2D的单沟泥石流运动危险性评价方法具有较高的准确性。

2-D Modeling and Calculations of Stratospheric Ozone and Influences of Convection, Diffusion, and Time

An engineering system approach of 2-D cylindrical model of transient mass balance calculations of ozone and other concerned chemicals along with fourteen photolysis, ozone-generating and ozone-depleting chemical reaction equations was developed, validated, and used for studying the ozone concentrations, distribution and peak of the layer, ozone depletion and total ozone abundance in the stratosphere. The calculated ozone concentrations and profile at both the Equator and a 60˚N location were found to follow closely with the measured data. The calculated average ozone concentration was within 1% of the measured average, and the deviation of ozone profiles was within 14%. The monthly evolution of stratospheric ozone concentrations and distribution above the Equator was studied with results discussed in details. The influences of slow air movement in both altitudinal and radial directions on ozone concentrations and profile in the stratosphere were explored and discussed. Parametric studies of the influences of gas diffusivities of ozone DO3 and active atomic oxygen DO on ozone concentrations and distributions were also studied and delineated. Having both influences through physical diffusion and chemical reactions, the diffusivity (and diffusion) of atomic oxygen DO was found to be more sensitive and important than that of ozone DO3 on ozone concentrations and distribution. The 2-D ozone model present in this paper for stratospheric ozone and its layer and depletion is shown to be robust, convenient, efficient, and executable for analyzing the complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere. .

Numerical three-dimensional modeling of earthen dam piping failure

A physically-based numerical three-dimensional earthen dam piping failure model is developed for homogeneous and zoned soil dams.This model is an erosion model,coupled with force/moment equilibrium analyses.Orifice flow and two-dimensional(2D)shallow water equations(SWE)are solved to simulate dam break flows at different breaching stages.Erosion rates of different soils with different construction compaction efforts are calculated using corresponding erosion formulae.The dam's real shape,soil properties,and surrounding area are programmed.Large outer 2D-SWE grids are used to control upstream and downstream hydraulic conditions and control the boundary conditions of orifice flow,and inner 2D-SWE flow is used to scour soil and perform force/moment equilibrium analyses.This model is validated using the European Commission IMPACT(Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty)Test#5 in Norway,Teton Dam failure in Idaho,USA,and Quail Creek Dike failure in Utah,USA.All calculated peak outflows are within 10%errors of observed values.Simulation results show that,for a V-shaped dam like Teton Dam,a piping breach location at the abutment tends to result in a smaller peak breach outflow than the piping breach location at the dam's center;and if Teton Dam had broken from its center for internal erosion,a peak outflow of 117851 m'/s,which is 81%larger than the peak outflow of 65120 m3/s released from its right abutment,would have been released from Teton Dam.A lower piping inlet elevation tends to cause a faster/earlier piping breach than a higher piping inlet elevation.

长三角D-2日电能量市场机制设计

立足于我国多层次市场体系建设现状和国、网、省三级调度业务架构,界定现阶段区域内省间市场和跨区省间市场在全国统一电力市场中的功能定位。为了解决不同范围、不同周期市场的衔接问题,提出建设长三角D-2日电能量市场,通过D-2日电能量市场统筹全网电力电量平衡,保障区外送电计划的可执行性,实现市场从中长期到日前的平滑过渡。引入市场用户报量报价参与区域市场;设计市场衔接、市场定价、偏差处理等关键机制;考虑到华东电网是耦合关系复杂的交流电网,构建全网络出清模型。算例结果表明,D-2日电能量市场有利于全网资源优化配置,保障全网电力安全以及解决发电侧市场力问题,证明了市场机制设计的有效性。

Multi-dimensional Simulation of Phase Change by a 0D-2D Model Coupling via Stefan Condition

Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.

A Survey on Deep Learning-Based 2D Human Pose Estimation Models

In this article,a comprehensive survey of deep learning-based(DLbased)human pose estimation(HPE)that can help researchers in the domain of computer vision is presented.HPE is among the fastest-growing research domains of computer vision and is used in solving several problems for human endeavours.After the detailed introduction,three different human body modes followed by the main stages of HPE and two pipelines of twodimensional(2D)HPE are presented.The details of the four components of HPE are also presented.The keypoints output format of two popular 2D HPE datasets and the most cited DL-based HPE articles from the year of breakthrough are both shown in tabular form.This study intends to highlight the limitations of published reviews and surveys respecting presenting a systematic review of the current DL-based solution to the 2D HPE model.Furthermore,a detailed and meaningful survey that will guide new and existing researchers on DL-based 2D HPE models is achieved.Finally,some future research directions in the field of HPE,such as limited data on disabled persons and multi-training DL-based models,are revealed to encourage researchers and promote the growth of HPE research.

基于FLO-2D的四川小金县炭厂沟危险性评价

【目的】研究炭厂沟泥石流爆发时的危险性。【方法】以炭厂沟1:5 000等高线、50年降雨数据和掩膜作为基础,结合现场勘察情况,运用FLO-2D和GIS软件,模拟炭厂沟在不同降雨频率下(10%、5%、2%和1%)泥石流的运动堆积过程。【结果】以1%降雨频率为例,模拟出的最大泥石流流速为20.97 m/s,最大泥石流流深为7.7 m,堆积面积为33 175 m^(2)。极端危险区范围占比81.8%,具有极高的危险性。对比模拟计算流速与公式计算流速来验算精确度,结果显示可靠性高。【结论】通过选用流速和泥深作为泥石流危险度分区的定量指标,得到炭厂沟泥石流的危险性分区图,为该流域的灾害防治提供科学的参考依据。

基于FLO-2D与冲量模型的泥石流危险度分区方法及应用

鉴于正确的泥石流危险度分区对合理规划布局泥石流堆积区经济活动的重要作用,采用FLO-2D模型对泥石流的运动堆积过程进行数值模拟,求得泥石流堆积扇上流速、流深分布及以格网为单位的泥石流体流速和流深的时间变化过程,结合GIS技术对计算所得数据进行空间分析,以泥石流体冲量为分区指标,建立泥石流堆积扇危险度分区模型,并以四川省石棉县马颈子沟泥石流为例,模拟该沟百年一遇泥石流运动堆积过程。结果表明,模拟堆积范围与实际堆积面积吻合度达86.16%;根据格网内泥石流体冲量模长,可将泥石流堆积扇危险度分为极度、重度、中度、轻度危险区四个等级。

基于FLO-2D的核桃沟泥石流数值模拟分析

铁路沿线泥石流灾害将对铁路隧道和桥梁施工和运营造成极大危害。文章选取核桃沟为研究对象,运用FLO-2D软件模拟不同周期的降雨过程,并提取降雨过程线计算泥石流洪峰流量。通过与雨洪法计算结果对比,验证了根据降雨过程线确定泥石流洪峰流量的合理性,进而对不同暴雨重现周期下核桃沟支沟和主沟泥石流发生过程进行模拟。核桃沟支沟泥石流模拟结果与分析表明,不同重现周期下,泥石流对支沟2~#斜井、沟谷居民安置点以及工程项目部的威胁较大,建议加强对支沟的泥石流监测预警。核桃沟主沟泥石流模拟结果与分析表明,不同重现周期下,核桃沟大桥处泥石流流速与堆积厚度有增大趋势;在50或100a一遇情况下,泥石流对核桃沟大桥的影响较大。

基于FLO-2D模型的泥石流运动冲淤数值模拟

采用2维流变模型FLO-2D,经连续方程与运动方程,结合网格化的数字高程模型,选取陇南市武都地区清水沟、嘴子沟及段河坝3条泥石流沟为试验区.通过DEM在ArcGIS中转换为ASCⅡ格式输入至FLO-2DPRO软件中,建立流域模型,分析计算出各网格点的可能运动速度、淤积深度,并将模拟结果整合致GIS中.在GIS软件中分析可能淤积范围,通过对比2010年陇南"8.12"特大暴雨事件引发泥石流灾害灾情,验证了FLO-2D模型模拟试验区泥石流威胁范围的正确性,发现模拟结果与实际发生灾情威胁范围大致相符.

基于FLO-2D的泥石流工程治理效果分析——以都江堰银洞子沟泥石流为例

选取地震区典型泥石流沟银洞子沟作为研究对象,运用FLO-2D软件再现该沟2013年泥石流发生过程,验证了通过研究区雨量数据获取泥石流流量线方法的可靠性以及相关模拟参数选取的合理性。在此基础上,基于泥石流发生频率和暴雨爆发频率相同的假设,对不同爆发频率下的泥石流工程治理效果进行了分析。结果表明:工程治理后,当爆发频率为30,50 a时,工程治理效果显著;当爆发频率为100 a时,工程治理效果不显著。因此,建议相关管理部门加强极端降雨条件下泥石流的预警和防治工作。

基于FLO-2D的联合溪沟泥石流运动特征及防治对策

湖南省岳阳县联合溪沟无泥石流灾害历史,但于2011年、2012年连续两年暴发特大型泥石流。在实地调查中取得了该泥石流沟的地形、物源、水源等基础资料,并重点分析沟内堆积物颗粒粒径分布规律,总结了该泥石流的发育特征:在地形因素的主导下,沟道水动力条件不断变化,泥石流呈现出冲刷—淤积—运动—堆积的特点。利用FLO-2D模拟泥石流的活动范围及掩埋深度,并进行灾情验证,结果表明FLO-2D模拟计算结果与实际灾情基本一致。针对该泥石流沟的复杂性、独特性,提出以拦挡坝、桩林式格栅坝、清淤护岸工程相结合的泥石流工程治理措施。

基于Working Model 2D运动仿真的机构设计

介绍了基于Working Model 2D运动仿真的机构设计。该文利用该软件对四杆机构进行运动仿真和运动分析,结合Excel实现凸轮机构的凸轮轮廓线的设计并作运动仿真。此软件简单易学,仿真过程形象直观,为机构设计提供了一个极好的工具。

基于FLO-2D数值模拟的结底岗村公路泥石流危险性评价

工布江达县公路沿线泥石流频发,对公路交通安全和县内各区域经济发展造成严重影响。为研究高海拔地区暴雨型泥石流对公路的危害特征和潜在危险性,同时探索基于FLO-2D模型模拟泥石流的方法在高寒、高海拔、强地质构造地区的适用性,运用FLO-2D软件,以西藏自治区工布江达县典型公路泥石流——结底岗村泥石流为例,模拟泥石流泥深、流速等方面的冲淤特征,确定泥石流强度并划定危险性分区评价泥石流危险性。以公路沿线典型泥石流沟危险性的“点评价”为基础,通过分析公路泥石流危险分区以及与受威胁路段之间的拓扑关系,定量评估泥石流危险性,可以合理地预测公路泥石流的影响区域和危害程度,为工布江达县公路泥石流灾害分析、预警以及建设设计和公众疏散计划提供技术参考。

基于FLO-2D的溃决型泥石流模拟研究

2013年7月10日华溪沟引发降雨量为100年一遇的溃决型泥石流("7.10"泥石流),造成岷江堵塞并形成堰塞湖,造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡。为了研究溃决型泥石流危险性,探讨不同降雨频率下暴发泥石流的结果,利用FLO-2D软件对华溪沟在不同降雨频率下溃决与非溃决条件进行了数值模拟,并把100年一遇的模拟结果与实际野外调查情况做出对比。结果显示溃决条件下冲出量、堆积范围面积、平均堆积深度比非溃决条件下超出1倍;溃决时冲出量比实际调查值少5.58万m3。数值模拟结果表明模型的误差在允许范围内,模拟结果与原型相比准确度为88.61%,模拟效果较好。溃决型泥石流规模比非溃决时相比甚大,因此在进行灾害防治设计和危险性评价时应特别注意。

基于FLO-2D的泥石流灾害风险评价——以麦多沟泥石流为例

针对4种极端降雨工况下泥石流威胁范围和存在的潜在风险,以单个建筑物作为评价单元,对西藏察雅县城麦多泥石流灾害进行风险评价,包含泥石流危险性分区、易损性分析和风险评价3方面主要内容。文中阐述了整个精细化风险评价的流程:首先基于实地获取的无人机三维地质模型,利用FLO-2D软件模拟麦多沟在4种极端降雨工况下(10%、5%、2%、1%)泥石流暴发过程,对其潜在威胁区进行危险性分区;基于实地走访调查所得数据,进行影响范围内建筑物和人口的易损性分析;将危险性和易损性归一化处理,以单个建筑物作为评价单元,经过ArcGIS平台叠加运算,最终得到研究区建筑物风险和人口风险分区。评价结果可为当地地质灾害、风险管控工作提供科学参考依据,评价流程对今后泥石流灾害的精细化定量风险评价有一定的借鉴意义。

基于FLO-2D数值模拟的泥石流流动与堆积影响因素研究

泥石流和普通的山体滑坡不同,它是发生在山区的一种含有砂土和石块的暂时性水流,具有宾汉体的性质和运动阻塞双重特性,国内外众多学者在流动学实验及流动学模型的基础上,对数值模拟方法进行了大量研究,通过泥石流的灾害范围、运动速度、运动时间与实际情况进行对比,开发出适用于泥石流预报的数值模拟程序,FLO-2D就是其中之一。工程实践证明,在对泥石流组成物质的流动特性研究基础上,对泥石流移动及沉积特性进一步研究是非常重要的。本文运用FLO-2D流动模型数值模拟方法对泥石流的移动特性进行模拟,以此分析泥石流流动及堆积特性与黏性系数和屈服应力的关系。通过分析得到:随着黏性系数的增大,泥石流流速呈非线性减少;屈服应力作为影响泥石流发生及停止的因素,随着屈服应力的增大,流深也随着增大,但在泥石流移动特性中,屈服应力对泥石流流速的影响并不明显;随着黏性系数的增加,泥石流冲击力减小,而随着屈服应力的增加,泥石流的冲击力则增大。

基于FLO-2D的泥石流危险性评价——以四川省汶川县绵虒镇簇头沟为例

2013年7月10日四川省汶川县绵虒镇降持续性暴雨,促使簇头沟暴发降雨频率为2%的泥石流,导致岷江堵塞,严重威胁沟口居民及下游安全。以簇头沟的1∶10000等高线、2013年降雨数据与遥感影像等作为基础数据,结合野外考察资料,运用FLO-2D软件,模拟计算簇头沟在不同降雨频率下(5%、2%和1%)泥石流的运动堆积过程,研究簇头沟泥石流的危险性。在2%降雨频率(实际降雨频率)条件下,模拟得出最大泥石流流速为12.99m/s,最大泥石流泥深为15.7 m,堆积面积为9.55×10~4m^2,与实际堆积范围进行验证,精确率为77%,在合理误差范围内,成果可靠性高。通过泥深与流度来构建泥石流的强度模型,再与暴发的重现周期相结合而构建簇头沟泥石流危险性评价模型,获得堆积扇危险范围分布图,其中高危险面积占61%,中危险面积占19%,低危险面积占20%。为簇头沟泥石流的灾害防治提供科学的参考依据。