Central bank digital currency,loan supply,and bank failure risk:a microeconomic approach

Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.

Risk of Treatment Failure in Patients with Drug-susceptible Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China

The objective of this prospective study of the risks of treatment failure in patients with drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis （PTB） was to provide reference data to help develop a disease control strategy. Participants were recruited in eight provinces of China from October 2008 to December 2010. A total of 1447 patients with drug-susceptible PTB and older than 15 years of age were enrolled.

Analyzing risk factors for postoperative acute renal failure requiring dialysis after valve surgery

Objective To evaluate risk factors for postoperative acute renal failure requiring dialysis (ARF-D) after hear valve surgery. Methods Adult patients (age≤18 years) underwent valve surgery with preoperative serum creati nine 【 300 μmol / L were included between January 2005 and December 2008. Fifty patients developed ARF-D

The Role of Bedside Troponin T Test for Identification of High Risk Patients With Acute Chest Pain

Objectives Evaluation of patients with acute chest pain when they admitted is time-consuming. We prospectively investigated the role of bedside troponin T test for predicting the risk of death and acute heart failure of patients with acute chest pain.Methods and Results 502 consecutive patients with chest pain for less than 24 hours were determined by troponin T test at bedside and quantitative troponin I test in lab. For bedside troponin T tests, there were 160 patients in positive and 323 in negative. During 30 days of followed-up. Myocardial infarction evolved in 139 patients among 160 patients in positive troponin T test, only 7 patients in negative one. Acute heart failure occurred in 51 patients among the positive group, but 37 occurred it at negative group. The odds ratio of acute heart failure of positive group vs. negative group was 3.6. Patients died 39 in positive group, 15 in negative group, the all-cause death odds ratio of positive group vs. negative group was 6.7; 31 patients died with cardiac event in positive group, 5 in negative group only. Conclusions Bedside Troponin T test is a powerful and independent predictor of death and acute heart failure for patients with acute chest pain.

Reliability improvement of gas discharge tube by suppressing the formation of short-circuit pathways

After cumulative discharge of gas discharge tube(GDT),it is easy to form a short circuit pathway between the two electrodes,which increases the failure risk and causes severe influences on the protected object.To reduce the failure risk of GDT and improve cumulative discharge times before failure,this work aims to suppress the formation of two short-circuit pathways by optimizing the tube wall structure,the electrode materials and the electrode structure.A total of five improved GDT samples are designed by focusing on the insulation resistance change that occurs after the improvement;then,by combining these designs with the microscopic morphology changes inside the cavity and the differences in deposition composition,the reasons for the differences in the GDT failure risk are also analyzed.The experimental results show that compared with GDT of traditional structure and material,the method of adding grooves at both ends of the tube wall can effectively block the deposition pathway of the tube wall,and the cumulative discharge time before device failure is increased by 149%.On this basis,when the iron-nickel electrode is replaced with a tungsten-copper electrode,the difference in the electrode’s surface splash characteristics further extends the discharge time before failure by 183%.In addition,when compared with the traditional electrode structure,the method of adding an annular structure at the electrode edge to block the splashing pathway for the particles on the electrode surface shows no positive effect,and the cumulative discharge time before the failure of the two structures is reduced by 22.8%and 49.7%,respectively.Among these improved structures,the samples with grooves at both ends of the tube wall and tungsten-copper as their electrode material have the lowest failure risk.

Evaluation of acute kidney injury as defined by the risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage criteria in critically ill patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Background Acute kidney injury （AKI） is considered as a common and significant complication following abdominal aortic aneurysm （AAA） repair. This study aimed to assess the associated risk factors of AKI in the critically ill patients undergoing AAA repair and to evaluate the appropriate AKI management in the specific population. Methods We retrospectively examined data from all critically ill patients undergoing AAA repairs at our institution from April 2007 to March 2012. Multivariable analysis was used to identify factors associated with postoperative AKI, which was defined by risk, injury, failure, loss and end-stage （RIFLE） kidney disease criteria. The goal-directed hemodynamic optimization （maintenance of optimal hemodynamics and neutral or negative fluid balance） and renal outcomes were also reviewed. Results Of the 71 patients enrolled, 32 （45.1%） developed AKI, with 30 （93.8%） cases diagnosed on admission to surgical intensive care unit （SICU）. Risk factors for AKI were ruptured AAA （odds ratio （OR）=5.846, 95% confidence interval （CI）： 1.346-25.390）, intraoperative hypotension （OR=6.008, 95% CI： 1.176 to 30.683）, and perioperative blood transfusion （OR=4.611, 95% CI： 1.307-16.276）. Goal-directed hemodynamic optimization resulted in 75.0% complete and 18.8% partial renal recovery. Overall in-hospital mortality was 2.8%. AKI was associated with significantly increased length of stay （（136.9±24.5） hours vs. （70.4±11.3） hours） in Surgical Intensive Care Unit. Conclusions Critically ill patients undergoing AAA repair have a high incidence of AKI, which can be early recognized by RIFLE criteria. Rupture, hypotension, and blood transfusion are the significant associated risk factors. Application of goal-directed hemodynamic optimization in this cohort appeared to be effective in improving renal outcome.

Power transmission risk assessment considering component condition

This paper proposes a new method for power transmission risk assessment considering historical failure statistics of transmission systems and operation failure risks of system components.Component failure risks are integrated into the new method based on operational condition assessment of components using the support vector data description(SVDD)approach.The traditional outage probability model of transmission lines has been modified to build a new framework for power transmission system risk assessment.The proposed SVDD approach can provide a suitable mechanism to map component assessment grades to failure risks based on probabilistic behaviors of power system failures.Under the new method,both up-todate component failure risks and traditional system risk indices can be processed with the proposed outage model.As a result,component failure probabilities are not only related to historical statistic data but also operational data of components,and derived risk indices can reflect current operational conditions of components.In simulation studies,the SVDD approach is employed to evaluate component conditions and link such conditions to failure rates using up-to-date component operational data,including both on-line and off-line data of components.The IEEE 24-bus RTS-1979 system is used to demonstrate that component operational conditions can greatly affect the overall transmission system failure risks.