How China's Grain-for-Green Project Contributes to Farmers' Income Growth

Initially intended to prevent water and soil erosion, China's Grain-for-Green Project(GGP) also has had economic impacts on farmers' income and employment. Based on the poverty monitoring survey data between 2006-2010 from National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), this paper evaluates the GGP's policy effects with respect to farmers' income, non-agricultural employment and poverty alleviation. Our findings suggest that contributing to the GGP, farmers' income including GGP subsidies increased significantly compared with the pre-GGP level; however, if GGP subsidies are not taken into account, the increase in farmers' non-agricultural income after the GGP could only compensate for the income losses from farmland reduction, showing an insignificant effect. Second, there exist significant differences on employment tendency among GGP households. High-income households tend to engage in operation business in forestry, livestock and fishery activities, while medium-income families are more inclined to seek employment outside, and the differences attribute to the inter-group intrinsic characteristics. Lastly, the GGP's poverty alleviation effect varies with the difference in poverty standard. Overall, the GGP's poverty alleviation effect is significant.

The Influence of Urbanization Development on Farmers' Income Growth in Wuhan City

Over the past three decades,with the development of urbanization in Wuhan,farmers' income has been substantially increased in Wuhan City,and urbanization has played an important role in farmers' income growth. By the empirical analysis of the data related to the level of urbanization development and farmers' income in Wuhan City during 1993- 2013,this paper finds that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization development and farmers' income growth in Wuhan City,and urbanization development has become an important driving force for farmers' income growth. Finally,this paper puts forth some policy recommendations for promoting farmers' income by urbanization development in Wuhan City on the basis of empirical analysis.

The Evolutive Law concerning Relationship between Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase in Xinjiang since the Reform and Opening-up:An Empirical Analysis of the VEC Model

We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.

How to Increase the Farmers' Income in Rongchang County?

The farmers' income growth in Rongchang County is mainly from the family business and wage income,accounting for 55. 4% and37. 9%,respectively; the growth rate of rural per capita net income increased from 12. 4% in 2005 to 17. 6% in 2010,close to or higher than Chongqing's average but lower than the level of adjacent districts and counties such as Yongchuan; the absolute value of net income in Rongchang increased from 3426 yuan to 6755 yuan,less than in other districts and counties similar to Yongchuan in Chongqing,far less than in the other three municipalities( up to 6991 yuan). The slow farmers' income growth is affected by multiple factors such as overall low quality of the rural labor force,county industrial structure and difficulties in transferring a large number of rural surplus labor forces. It is necessary to improve the quality of farmers,strive to adjust the agricultural structure,and develop rural cooperative economic organizations,in order to increase farmers' income.

Empirical Research on the Relations between Farmers' Income Increase and Economic Development in Henan Province

According to data of per capita net income of rural households and the per capita regional gross output from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Henan Statistical Yearbook, we know that both of the time series obey the unit root process, so they belong to non-stationary time series. The results of the Engle-Granger two-stage estimation method show that the two terms have long-term stable integration equilibrium relations. The results of Granger Causality Test show that there is only the one way Granger Causality relation from farmers' income increase to economic growth. Connecting with the reality of Henan Province, the possible reasons are analyzed. The population of rural residents is huge and the income level of the rural residents are low, and the marginal consumption tendency is bigger than urban and township residents, so the increase of farmers' income will promote economic growth. Notably, the income increase of farmers is even more helpful to expand domestic demand. Since 1978, the consumption level and structure of farmers in Henan Province is increasing gradually and the role played by of farmers' income increase in stimulating economic growth is increasing. Besides, the urban-rural double system which serves for economic development strategy is the historic root for the expanding gap of urban and rural income. In addition, the economic policy which gives priority to cities is the system root for the expanding gap of rural and urban income.

喀斯特地区土地流转如何促进农户增收?——基于8省3678户的经验证据

充分发挥喀斯特地区土地流转的农户增收效应是推进山地农业高质量发展的有效渠道。基于中国喀斯特地区8个省区市3 678户农户微观调研数据,采用有序Logit模型、倾向得分匹配法、KHB方法等,考察土地流转对农户收入的影响和作用机制。结果表明:(1)土地流转显著提升了喀斯特地区农户家庭总收入水平,土地流转户收入水平较未参与流转户约高出12.86%;(2)相比于土地转入户,土地转出对农户收入增长的影响更为显著;(3)外出务工和家庭创业在土地转出影响农户收入关系中起中介作用,解释比例分别为17.18%和4.63%;农业机械化在耕地较为平整的转入户对收入的影响中起中介作用,解释比例为16.93%;(4)土地流转对种植经济作物、耕地较为平整、灌溉条件较好的农户家庭总收入影响显著为正。为此,建议进一步健全喀斯特地区土地流转机制,促进非农产业发展,加强丘陵山区农业机械化和农田水利设施建设,发展喀斯特地区特色高效农业,鼓励更多农户积极参与土地流转。

返乡创业质量与农民共同富裕

本文在高质量发展和共同富裕目标背景下,基于2019年和2022年返乡创业企业调查数据,实证检验了返乡创业质量对农民收入的影响及作用机制,进而回答返乡创业高质量发展对实现农民共同富裕的影响。研究发现,返乡创业质量显著提高了农民收入,返乡创业质量每提高1个标准差,农民收入增加1.111%。调节效应表明,营商环境强化了返乡创业质量对农民增收的影响,且这一效应在第三产业和中部、西部地区更强。进一步研究发现,返乡创业质量显著促进了低收入群体增收,并提高其进入中高收入群体的概率,缩小了农民内部收入差距和城乡收入差距。本文结论为全面认识返乡创业行为的影响效应提供新证据,对促进企业高质量发展和实现农民共同富裕具有政策启示。

高标准农田建设参与对农民种粮收益的影响——基于农业新质生产力的中介作用

基于全国10省1032份农户的微观调查数据,使用内生转换回归模型实证分析了高标准农田建设参与对农民种粮收益的影响。研究发现:(1)高标准农田建设参与显著提升农民种粮收益,且平均处理效应表明,参与高标准农田建设可使农民种粮收益提高2.77%。(2)异质性分析表明,相较于小农户,规模户参与高标准农田建设能够提升种粮收益;高标准农田建设参与不仅促进兼业农户增加种粮收益,而且促进纯农户增加种粮收益;相较于非粮食主产区,粮食主产区农户参与高标准农田建设的种粮收益提升效果更明显。(3)机制分析表明,高标准农田建设参与通过提升农业新质生产力水平,从而提高农民种粮收益。据此,鼓励农民积极参与高标准农田建设管理工作,制定出台农户参与高标准农田建设的差异化政策,同时加快培育和发展农业新质生产力,以实现农民种粮收益提升。

新发展阶段粮食安全与农民增收路径

运用2010-2021年我国26个省份的面板数据,以粮食产量为产出变量,以劳动力、资本、水资源、土地资源、农药、化肥为投入变量,计算粮食生产效率,运用回归模型分析粮食生产效率对农民收入的影响。回归分析结果显示粮食生产效率对农民收入具有正的影响,据此提出降低农业生产成本、促进城镇化与农业现代化协同发展、优化财政支农形式等建议,以提高粮食生产效率,促进农民增收。

数字金融对农民增收的影响:基于门槛效应和空间收敛性分析

数字金融发展是否有利于提升农民收入并对农民收入差距产生影响值得深入研究。论文基于2011—2020年全国31个省(自治区、直辖市,不包含港澳台地区)的面板数据,从农民增收和收入差距的双重视角,考查数字金融的非线性门槛增收效应及对农民收入差距的空间收敛影响。研究发现,数字金融对农民收入的影响存在“边际效应递增”,即随着数字金融发展水平跨越相应门槛值,农民增收效应递增;各地区数字金融发展水平呈现“高-高”和“低-低”的空间集聚特征;进一步分析发现,农民收入水平具有显著的空间β条件收敛特征,且数字金融加剧了各省(自治区、直辖市,不包含港澳台地区)农民收入差距。论文为数字金融与农民增收关系的研究提供了一个新的视角,为优化数字金融助力农民增收、缓解农民收入差距的相关政策提供了参考。

数字经济、空间溢出与农民收入增长

基于2013—2019年283个城市的面板数据,本文系统剖析数字经济与农民收入增长之间的关系及其空间溢出效应。研究结果发现,数字经济不仅直接促进农民增收,还通过提升创业活跃度间接对农民收入产生积极影响;数字经济对农民增收的推动作用存在明显的区域和时间异质性;数字经济与农民增收存在显著的空间相关性,数字经济显著促进本地区农民增收,同时正向影响周边地区农民收入,具有一定的空间溢出效应。上述结论为探讨数字经济的增收效应提供中观层面的经验证据和分析视角,也为数字经济时代推进乡村振兴、迈向共同富裕给予政策参考。

SAR模型在省域和县域农民收入中的应用研究

本文利用各省财政农业人均支出、农村人均用电量作为解释变量,建立了农民人均收入空间自回归(SAR)模型。模型数据分析表明:我国农民人均收入存在明显的空间自相关现象,它反映了省际农民收入存在聚集效应;农民人均收入对财政农业人均支出、农村人均用电量存在明显的空间依赖性;财政农业支出对农民增收产生积极的正面影响,农村用电量是衡量农民收入水平的重要有效指标。考虑到省际间差异可能太大,文章还对福建省67个县市进行了同样的问题研究,并得出了相似的结论。

健康人力资本与农户收入增长——基于CHNS数据的经验研究

基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,估计了中国农村地区农户健康人力资本对种植业收入的影响。结果显示,几乎所有的健康测量指标都影响到农户的种植业收入,但不同健康指标的影响存在差异性,其中自评健康(SRH)的影响最为显著。身体质量指数(BMI)和热量摄入与农户收入之间呈非线性关系,其边际效应的转折点分别为28.68kg/m2和5164.36kcal。此外,年龄和教育等非健康指标对农户收入并没有显著影响。

农业科技创新、生态效率与农户增收质量的动态关系——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析

农业科技创新在提高农产品产量和质量的同时也面临促进农户增收的困境,而生态效率的提高也可能造成农户收入不平等的问题。为进一步探究农业科技创新水平、生态效率与农户增收三者之间的关系,根据2000—2020年间湖南省的时间序列信息,利用面板向量自回归模型,采用协整检测、格兰杰检测、方差分解等各种手段,对农业科技创新水平、生态效率和农户增收质量间的相关性开展实证分析,以为处理好农业发展、农户收入和生态环境保护之间的关系提供理论参考。结果显示:农业科技创新与农户增收质量之间存在显著的双向正向关系,即科技创新在提升农业生产效率和质量的同时显著促进了农户的经济增长,但生态效率的提升在短期内未能显著转化为农户的经济收益;农业科技创新对农户增收质量的影响即时且显著,并随着时间推移而趋于稳定;在预测农户增收质量时,农业科技创新的作用明显超过生态效率。基于此,从长期规划生态效率提升、加大农业科技创新的支持与投资和增强农户生态环保意识等方面提出政策建议。

福建省欠发达地区农户增收潜力及影响因素研究——基于闽北18村804个农户的调查数据

在对农户增收影响因素进行理论分析的基础上,以福建闽北地区18个村804个农户为研究对象,建立多元Logit模型对农户增收的主要影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:农户年人均收入情况的主要影响因素包括家庭成员16岁以下人数、家庭需赡养老人人口数、农户对于增收的意愿、是否创业或者在外务工、是否加入农村合作社、家庭参与土地流转情况、产业政策支持与否、当地银行贷款便捷程度等8个变量。结合模型结果,通过问卷4类变量对增收潜力的影响,整体分析农户增收现状以及对未来增收潜力进行预判。最后提出加快推进土地流转、解决粮食生产和增收矛盾、构建农业技能培训体系、加大支农惠农力度等对策。

面向共同富裕的山区农民可持续增收长效机制研究

探索更有利于农村“扩中”“提低”发展模式与实现机制,实现共同富裕需要将农民可持续增收作为核心议题。该文在分析新阶段农民可持续增收面临的主体困境、途径困境、价值困境和保障困境的基础上,立足于可持续发展视角,以衢州山区构建产业赋能、生态转化、就业服务、文化牵引四大共富机制为例,采用归纳式多案例研究方法,探讨农民增收可持续发展的作用机制与实现路径。

Achievements and Challenges in China's Rural Development

China's grain output has been growing steadily since the 1980 s.After reaching equilibrium of supply and demand with the subsequent moderate surplus in the late 1990 s,the output of major agricultural products entered a period of growth deceleration,output stability,and continued increase in per-capita possession of agricultural products.The household contract responsibility system is a major factor contributing to the phenomenal growth in agriculture in the early 1980 s.After entering the stage of regular growth rate,crop yield is mainly driven by the selection of superior crop varieties,machinery,irrigation,fertilization,use of ground cover film,and concentration of agricultural production into advantageous areas.Under the combined effect of these factors,the contribution of agricultural total factor productivity(TFP) to agricultural growth has been on the increase.With an expanded scope of employment,farmers are contributing more and more to economic growth.Their income and welfare are improving rapidly as well.In the recent decade,China has made much headway in its policy on the countryside,agriculture and farmers,and the environment for rural development has improved to some extent.However,rural development is still confronted with such challenges as weakening agricultural competitiveness,reduced tillage intensity,difficulties in large-scale farming and lack of cooperation among farmers.

经济集聚与农村居民收入增长——基于川渝地区贫困县与非贫困县的对比分析

经济集聚和乡村振兴作为区域经济学和发展经济学的重点问题和现实诉求,二者能否“相得益彰”备受关注。虽然现在脱贫攻坚任务业已完成,考虑到“贫困陷阱”“顽固贫困”以及“贫困代际传递”等关键问题仍然存在的客观事实,实现传统贫困地区农村居民收入的持续增长是破除连片特困地区的相对贫困桎梏和防止返贫的关键突破口,具有重要的学术价值与现实意义。文章在空间经济学理论框架下探讨了经济集聚对农村居民收入增长的影响机制,认为经济集聚可以通过空间溢出效应影响农村居民收入增长,但对邻近贫困县与非贫困县具有显著的空间非对称特征,“经济集聚中心”对地区农村居民收入增长影响同时具有规模效应和随距离衰减特征。作者以西部经济最活跃、贫困问题相对突出的川渝地区218个区县为样本,将反映地理和经济特征的空间权重矩阵引入动态空间杜宾模型,对上述理论假说进行了实证检验。研究发现:对全部样本的动态空间杜宾模型回归结果表明,经济集聚对农民的增收减贫效应在时间维度上存在路径依赖和“滚雪球”特征,具有长期的正向直接效应和溢出效应,可以显著促进农民增收,但其短期效应并不显著,农村居民收入增长仍然是较长时期内地方政府必须加以重视的工作重点。对传统贫困县和非贫困县两类地区分样本回归分析的结果表明,经济集聚对农村居民收入增长的影响具有典型的空间非对称性特征,“经济集聚中心”对农村居民收入增长的影响具有明显的规模效应和随距离衰减的特征,经济集聚不仅不能有效促进边远深度贫困地区农村居民收入增长,反而进一步加剧了当地农村居民收入状况的恶化。基于上述研究结果,文章认为在肯定经济集聚对农村居民收入积极作用的同时,特别是在脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴有效衔接的后脱贫攻坚时期,既要不断增强经济集聚的广度和深度,促进区域经济发展,又要重视经济集聚对贫困县与非贫困县在减贫效果上的差异,合理调整政策,有意识地将乡村振兴战略与精准扶贫和深度扶贫政策相结合,切实做到持续改善贫困县地区农村居民的收入状况。

浙江农民收入结构优化、均衡增长的对策研究——基于县域数据的实证分析

农民收入是“三农”问题的关键与核心。本文从浙江省历年统计数据出发,通过统计性描述和计量模型构建,对浙江省县域水平上农民收入的动态趋势、结构变化、影响因素等进行系统分析。研究发现,浙江农民收入在经历了长期的高速增长后,呈现基数高、增速缓的特征,总体上出现“疲态”。因此,今后浙江农民收入的增长目标应集中在调结构、促均衡上。浙江省县域农民收入的非均衡性显著,但县域差距总体呈逐年下降趋势。提高经营净收入和转移净收入将显著促进区域间农民收入的均衡增长。经济密度对农民收入具有显著正向影响。此外,对农民收入有显著正向效应的因素还包括人均农业产值、固定资产投资水平、政策倾向水平。在此基础上,提出以区域经济为抓手、促进农民收入均衡增长,以制度创新为突破、促进农民收入结构优化,以创新创业为载体、激发农民收入增长活力的政策建议。

共同富裕目标下农户贴息贷款对低收入群体增收效应研究

中国脱贫攻坚战取得决定性胜利,金融发挥的作用不可忽视,尤其是农户贴息贷款的减贫效应和增收促进作用,对防止贫困人群返贫、推动乡村振兴和实现共同富裕具有重要意义。以新疆南疆四地州2017年起实施的“政农通”农户贴息贷款政策构造准自然实验,并借助“建档立卡”信息系统提取相关数据,使用双重差分法(DID)进行回归分析,研究贴息贷款对农户尤其是低收入群体收入可持续增长的促进作用,结果发现:“政农通”农户贴息贷款政策有效促进了南疆四地州低收入群体收入的增长,但这种促进作用具有时滞性,总体呈现边际效应递减趋势;在不同收入群体中,相对较高收入人群的增收递减效应较为明显;农户贴息贷款具有趋利性和风险规避性,信贷资金用于养殖业项目的增收效果优于种植业和创业性项目。为检验农户贴息贷款对收入增长促进作用的机理,使用Bootstrap中介效应模型对投资意愿、种植面积、养殖规模三个代理变量进行了回归分析,结果显示三个中介变量置信区间内均不包含零值,验证了中介效应成立。最后,基于以上分析建议在贴息贷款政策连续性、信贷产品创新、农村地区金融素养、数字普惠金融等方面发挥长效机制,以期进一步缩小城乡收入差距,最终实现乡村振兴和共同富裕目标。