Analysis of traffic safety in airport aircraft activity areas based on bayesian networks and fault trees

To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport aircraft activity areas.It identified influencing factors in the aircraft activity area from the perspectives of person-vehicle-road-environment-management and analyzed their relationships.The Bayesian network was utilized to determine initial probabilities for each influencing factor.Findings indicated a relatively high overall safety level in the airport's road traffic system.Accident trees were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze common human-vehicle accident patterns.The initial probabilities obtained from the Bayesian network served as basic event probabilities in the accident tree to determine the occurrence probability of the top event.Taking a 4F airport in China as an example,accident cause analysis identified five important risk sources in human-vehicle accidents,including blind spots for special vehicles,illegal driving by drivers,pedestrians violating regulations,passengers entering restricted areas,and blind spots at intersections.Corresponding safety management measures were formulated.The study concluded that the integration of Bayesian networks and accident trees effectively determines accident probabilities and offers specific solutions,thus playing a crucial role in enhancing road traffic safety management within aviation airports.

Milling Fault Detection Method Based on Fault Tree Analysis and Hierarchical Belief Rule Base

Expert knowledge is the key to modeling milling fault detection systems based on the belief rule base.The construction of an initial expert knowledge base seriously affects the accuracy and interpretability of the milling fault detection model.However,due to the complexity of the milling system structure and the uncertainty of the milling failure index,it is often impossible to construct model expert knowledge effectively.Therefore,a milling system fault detection method based on fault tree analysis and hierarchical BRB(FTBRB)is proposed.Firstly,the proposed method uses a fault tree and hierarchical BRB modeling.Through fault tree analysis(FTA),the logical correspondence between FTA and BRB is sorted out.This can effectively embed the FTA mechanism into the BRB expert knowledge base.The hierarchical BRB model is used to solve the problem of excessive indexes and avoid combinatorial explosion.Secondly,evidence reasoning(ER)is used to ensure the transparency of the model reasoning process.Thirdly,the projection covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategies(P-CMA-ES)is used to optimize the model.Finally,this paper verifies the validity model and the method’s feasibility techniques for milling data sets.

Fault Tree Analysis of the Reliability of Electric Vehicles in India

Innovations for electric vehicles have advanced quickly in latest decades. Large-scale business use of these vehicles is still constrained by reliability-related issues. By utilising fault tree (FT) and Monte Carlo simulation, a mathematical prototype is created that includes the reliability traits of all major electrical parts of the vehicle system, including the battery, motor, drive, controllers. The research demonstrates that by raising the component restoration rates, the vehicle’s survivability can be raised. A thorough discussion of this paradigm is provided, along with a presentation and analysis of the reliability estimations based on an electric vehicle. This research on the reliability design and maintenance of an electric vehicle can be supported by the ideas that are outlined in the paper. Additionally, the findings of this study may be helpful to those who build electric vehicle, especially when upgrading the components efficiency and planning for reliability increase.

A SIMULATED ANNEALING METHOD FOR FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

This paper presents an approximate algorithm based on simulated annealing to achieve the maximum probability of the minimal cut sets for a fault tree. Near optimal minimal cut sets and important sequence of the basic events are also solved by the method. Computer simulations show that the algorithm performs very well.

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS OF SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION OF SULPHIDE ORES AND ITS RISK ASSESSMENT

A logic fault tree of mine spontaneous combustion of sulphide ores was built by the fault tree analysis (FTA) based on a lot of mechanism investigation of sulphide ore spontaneous combustion in more than ten mines and review of a great amount of relevant

Assessment of gas and dust explosion in coal mines by means of fuzzy fault tree analysis

During the past decade, coal dust and gas explosions have been the most two serious types of disasters in China, threatening the lives of miners and causing significant losses in terms of national property. In this paper, an evaluation model of coal dust and gas explosions was constructed based on a fuzzy fault tree by taking the Xingli Coal Mine as a research site to identify the risk factors of coal dust and gas explosions.Furthermore, the hazards associated with such explosions were evaluated for this particular coal mine.After completing an on-site investigation, the fuzzy probabilities of basic events were obtained through expert scoring, and these expert opinions were then aggregated as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the degrees of importance of all basic events. Finally, these degrees of importance were sorted. According to the resulting order, the basic events with higher probabilities were determined to identify key hazards in the daily safety management of this particular coal mine. Moreover, effective measures for preventing gas and coal dust explosions were derived. The fuzzy fault tree analysis method is of high significance in the analysis of accidental coal mine explosions and provides theoretical guidance for improving the efficiency of coal mine safety management in a scientific and feasible manner.

Qualitative analysis for state/event fault trees using formal model checking

A state/event fault tree(SEFT)is a modeling technique for describing the causal chains of events leading to failure in software-controlled complex systems.Such systems are ubiquitous in all areas of everyday life,and safety and reliability analyses are increasingly required for these systems.SEFTs combine elements from the traditional fault tree with elements from state-based techniques.In the context of the real-time safety-critical systems,SEFTs do not describe the time properties and important timedependent system behaviors that can lead to system failures.Further,SEFTs lack the precise semantics required for formally modeling time behaviors.In this paper,we present a qualitative analysis method for SEFTs based on transformation from SEFT to timed automata(TA),and use the model checker UPPAAL to verify system requirements’properties.The combination of SEFT and TA is an important step towards an integrated design and verification process for real-time safety-critical systems.Finally,we present a case study of a powerboat autopilot system to confirm our method is viable and valid after achieving the verification goal step by step.

Fault Tree Analysis of Dust Suppression Mechanism in a Spray System with Wetting Agent

By using the fault tree analysis in reliability theory as the systematical analysis approach, the dust suppression mechanism in a spray system with wetting agent is shown in a logic tree and some graphical models. From these diagrams, all factors related to the spray system and their cause and effect relationship can be seen clearly. Based on the built logic tree, several mathematical models and new ideas for expressing the dust suppressing efficiency in the spray system are put forward. The significance of all factors related to the efficiency of suppressing dust is qualitatively described. Furthermore, the new concepts, such as, the effective reaction time between dust particle and droplet, the expansion phenomenon of laden dust droplet, the functions of volatile and the relative size distribution efficiency of wetting agent are presented. All this richenes the existing mechanism of dust abatement by spraying wetting agent. At last, several problems that need to be further investigated are also suggested in the paper.

Fault Tree Analysis:Investigation of Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fever Infection Acquired in Animal Laboratories in China

Epidemic hemorrhagic fever has been an ongoing threat to laboratory personnel involved in animal care and use. Laboratory transmissions and severe infections occurred over the past twenty years, even though the standards and regulations for laboratory biosafety have been issued, upgraded, and implemented in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify risk factors and to seek effective preventive measures that can curb the incidences of epidemic hemorrhagic fever among laboratory personnel. In the present study, we reviewed literature that relevant to animals laboratory-acquired hemorrhagic fever infections reported from 1995 to 2015, and analyzed these incidences using fault tree analysis （FTA）.

Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem. This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems. The dualistic contrast,known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems,is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article. And the fault tree analysis,deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis,is also adopted. Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved. An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method.

Interval Fault Tree Analysis of Excavator VariableFrequency Speed Control System

In consideration of the uncertainty of basic events failure rate and lack of probability statistical information in fault tree analysis( FTA) of excavator variable-frequency speed control system, the interval theory was employed and combined with conventional FTA method. The basic events failure probabilities were described by interval numbers,and the interval operators of logical gates in FTA were deduced based on interval theory. Finally,the reliability assessment of excavator variable-frequency speed control system was done by interval FTA method. The result shows that the interval FTA method is suitable for the complex system with insufficient failure data.

Building and Analysis of Computer Aided Fuze Fault Tree

A common software to analyze fuze fault tree is developed to simplify the trivialness in generating the fuze fault tree and reduce the manual calculation work. The overall structure, function and implementation of the system are introduced. The software based on Windows platform is used to generate the fuze fault tree in graphics mode. A quantitative analysis of fuze fault tree can be obtained by the method of minimum cut sets. A calculation example is used to verify the function of the software. Consequently, the expected requirements of this software system are achieved to a certain level.

Fault Tree Analysis of CNC Machine Tool Based on BDD Technology

CNC machine tool is a large complex system which contains both mechanical and electrical components.As one of these components,the spindle is crucial for the performance of CNC machine tool.To improve the quality of CNC machine,the reliability of spindle was evaluated in this paper using a fault tree analysis(FTA)method.The FTA method is a set of calculation methods based on Boolean algebra.However,it is difficult to analyze a large and complex fault tree with inaccurate results and low efficiency as well as the complexity of time and space.Both of them will result in the so-called "combinatorial explosion".To overcome this problem,the analysis method based on binary decision diagram(BDD)was introduced in our works,and a sorting method about bottom events was also recommended which can reduce the size of the BDD effectively.

The research of mine rock burst hazard identification based on fault tree analysis

In order to identify the rock burst hazard in coalmine and thus to give a credible forecast, firstly, analyzed such effect factors as natural geological factors and mining technological conditions based on the investigation of more than one hundred mine rock burst cases. Secondly, adopted the fault tree analysis （FTA） technology to the mine rock burst hazard identification for the first time and confirmed twelve kinds of basic events, that is, the large mining depth, the burst-orientation coal seams, the solid strata of roof and bottom, near the faults with bigger fall, the folds, the change of seam thickness, other regional tectonics transformation or stress strip, the drilling, blasting and extracting operation, the unscientific extracting methods, the illogical extracting sequence, the residual pillars and the too close distance between the working face and the residual areas or the stopping extracting lines. Moreover, worked out the fault tree of mine rock burst. At last, it made qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and forecasted the rock burst hazard according to the characteristic of geologic structure and exploitation technology conditions in certain mine of Shandong Province, China, the rock burst accidents happened in the following exploitation validated that it is of feasibility and veracity adopting FTA to identify the mine rock burst hazard.

Automatic Derivation of Fault Tree Models from SysML Models for Safety Analysis

Safety Critical Systems (SCS) are those systems that may cause harm to the user(s) and/or the environment if operating outside of their prescribed specifications. Such systems are used in a wide variety of domains, such as aerospace, automotive, railway transportation and healthcare. In this paper, we propose an approach to integrate safety analysis of SCSs within the Model Driven Engineering (MDE) system development process. The approach is based on model transformation and uses standard well-known techniques and open source tools for the modeling and analysis of SCSs. More specifically, the system modeled with the OMG’s standard systems modeling language, SysML, is automatically transformed in Fault Tree (FT) models, that can be analyzed with existing FT tools. The proposed model transformation takes place in two steps: a) generate FTs at the component level, in order to tackle complexity and enable reuse;and b) generate system level FTs by composing the components and their FTs. The approach is illustrated by applying it to a simplified industry-inspired case study.

Analysis and Control Measures of Hazardous Chemical Explosions Based on Fault Tree Analysis

In view of the environmental and safety risks of hazardous chemical explosions in chemical enterprises,the fault tree analysis was used to establish a fault tree model of hazardous chemical explosions and comprehensively analyze the possibility of the explosions.The 34 basic events that caused hazardous chemical explosions were expounded,and the minimum cut and path sets were obtained.The structure importance of basic events were calculated.According to the minimum path sets,the basic events when the accident does not occur were determined,and combined with the sequence of structure importance,the preventive measures for hazardous chemical explosion accidents were proposed.The fault tree model intuitively clarified the correlation between the direct causes of hazardous chemical explosion accidents,and proposed directions for effectively reducing the probability of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in the chemical industry.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy importance analysis of the basic event is proposed as well. A practical example is given. This method is a new way to solve the obscure problems of fault tree analysis and has great value in engineering practice.

Unplanned Shutdown Frequency Prediction of FBR MONJU Using Fault Tree Analysis Method

In order to evaluate the operational reliability of Japanese FBR （fast breeder reactor） MONJU, frequencies of important intermediate events and equipment failures resulting during reactor automatic trip are predicted using FTA （fault tree analysis） technique for the plant system model. The targeted devices are the following： PHTS （primary heat transport system）, SHTS （secondary heat transport system）, WS （water and steam system）, PPS （plant protection system） and PCS （plant control system）. In this paper, the frequency of automatic reactor trips was estimated by extracting and analyzing the important intermediate events and equipment failures covering all the derived fault trees of these systems. The analyses predicted 1.2/RY （reactor year） the value of unplanned shut down frequency by the internal factor of the system. The largest contributed event was function failure of SHTS accounting for 42.6% of total events followed by PHTS with 40.1%. The contribution factor of WS was only 4.4%.

STUDY ON MODULAR FAULT TREE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE WITH CUT SETS MATRIX METHOD

A new fault tree analysis (FTA) computation method is put forth by using modularization technique in FTA with cut sets matrix, and can reduce NP (Nondeterministic polynomial) difficulty effectively. This software can run in IBM PC and DOS 3.0 and up. The method provides theoretical basis and computation tool for application of FTA technique in the common engineering system