Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland

To investigate the recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing eathquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland, thispaper analyzes quantitatively earthquake history of 19 fault segments based on earthquake dam of multi-cyclerecurrences. The result shows that, for these fault segments, eanhquake recurring at previous locations is mainlycharacterized by both quasi-periodic (in a ratio of about) and time-predictable (in a ratio of about) behaviors.For the first behavior. intrinsic uncertainty of recurrence interval accounts for 0. 15-0.40 of the average interval, andmagnitudes of event vary from cycle to cycle within the range of the mean magnitUde t0.5. For the second behavior,intrinsic uncertainty of recurrence interval ranges mostly from 0. 19 to 0.40 of the average interval, and for successivetwo cycles the maximum change of event magnitudes is as much as 1.7 magnitude-units. In addition, for a few casesthe first behavior coexists along with either the second or the slip-predictable behaviors.

Relation of deformation behavior with precipitation and groundwater of the Babaoshan fault in Beijing

We discuss the influence of precipitation and groundwater on the deformation behavior of the Babaoshan fault of Beijing by using long-term observation data from Dahuichang station during 1970-2003. The results show that a) the pore pressure on fault zone as well as the fault deformation behavior exhibited periodically variation as precipitation changed steadily and periodically; b) the periodicity of the pore pressure of fault zones disappeared and the manner of fault deformation behavior changed when precipitation was small and/or was in aberrance. This implies that rainfall plays a key role in fault deformation behavior through changing the pore pressure of fault zones. Combining the existing results about the Babaoshan fault, it is concluded that precipitation and groundwater may adjust the stress/strain field by controlling the deformation behavior of the fault, which can provide direct observation evidence for the interaction of fluid and solid in shallow crust of the Earth.

矿井电气设备故障响应建模及优化

构建矿井下电气设备故障响应模型.建立矿井下电气设备故障响应模型,增添若干个相关库所和变迁,合理调整模型中的行为轮廓与流程,优化矿井下电气设备故障响应模型.PIPE仿真软件的仿真结果显示,此模型可靠且有效.

深度神经网络修复策略综述

随着智能信息时代的发展,深度神经网络在人类社会众多领域中的应用,尤其是在自动驾驶、军事国防等安全攸关系统中的部署,引起了学术界和工业界对神经网络模型可能表现出的错误行为的担忧.虽然神经网络验证和神经网络测试可以提供关于错误行为的定性或者定量结论,但这种事后分析并不能防止错误行为的发生,如何修复表现出错误行为的预训练神经网络模型依然是极具挑战性的问题.为此,深度神经网络修复这一领域应运而生,旨在消除有缺陷的神经网络产生的错误预测,使得神经网络满足特定的规约性质.目前为止,典型的神经网络修复范式有3种:重训练、无错误定位的微调和包含错误定位的微调.介绍深度神经网络的发展和神经网络修复的必要性;厘清相近概念;明确神经网络修复的挑战;详尽地调研目前已有的神经网络修复策略,并对内在联系与区别进行分析和比较;调研整理神经网络修复策略常用的评价指标和基准测试;展望未来神经网络修复领域研究中需要重点关注的可行方向.

老龄化背景下的体感交互容错设计路径研究

本研究基于老年人体感交互过程中的行为差错与老年体感交互设计案例,探讨老年人体感交互容错设计的可行路径。通过对老年人的体感交互的现状与老年人的行为差错分析,回顾了大量的老年人容错设计应用性研究,结合案例分析梳理了文献考证、图像分析等研究方法。总结、提取了老年人体感交互容错设计路径,有助于体感交互在结构框架层、交互层、设计层等方面进行适老化容错设计,为老年人体感交互以及其他交互领域提供容错思路,从而设计出满足老年用户需求的交互动作、手势、界面等。

基于安全裕度的网联自主汽车换道行为风险量化及动态平衡模型

伴随车联网技术的发展,道路交通流呈现智能网联自动驾驶汽车与传统人工驾驶车辆混合共存发展态势,研究网联新型混合车流换道驾驶行为的风险特性极其重要。基于安全裕度理论,建立了换道行为风险量化模型,采用故障树分析法,推导换道的时间和空间风险,进行时空融合的风险评定量化,以判断车辆是否处于安全变道状态,并动态平衡车辆换道行为可能存在的风险。运用SUMO软件对建立的量化模型进行仿真验证分析,碰撞时间倒数与瞬时风险系数均值分别下降0.1与0.05,同时变化趋势趋于稳定。安全裕度风险量化模型使换道风险得到了有效控制的同时,交通流的稳定性得到了较大提高,可保障未来网联环境中自主驾驶车辆队列的稳态运行,从而提高交通容量和交通效率。

Short-circuit fault analysis and isolation strategy for matrix converters

The behavior of matrix converter(MC) drive systems under the condition of MC short-circuit faults is comprehensively investigated. Two isolation strategies using semiconductors and high speed fuses(HSFs) for MC short-circuit faults are examined and their performances are compared. The behavior of MC drive systems during the fuse action time under different operating conditions is explored. The feasibility of fault-tolerant operation during the fuse action time is also studied. The basic selection laws for the HSFs and the requirements for the passive components of the MC drive system from the point view of short-circuit faults are also discussed. Simulation results are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed isolation strategies.

创新型领导对员工失败学习的影响研究

科技快速革新与环境动荡使得企业内部的失败愈发普遍,如何有效从失败中学习受到越来越多人的关注,以往的研究表明,员工失败学习行为可能受到领导行为的影响,但其具体影响路径仍需进一步检验。本文从创新型领导出发,依次选取领导容错行为、员工心理韧性为中介变量,构建创新型领导作用于员工失败学习行为的链式中介模型。研究结果表明,创新型领导对员工失败学习行为、领导容错行为和员工心理韧性具有直接的正向影响;领导容错行为和员工心理韧性在创新型领导与员工失败学习行为之间发挥着链式中介作用。

逆断层错动作用下双仓管廊结构力学特性和抗断设计研究

断层蠕滑错动和地震作用对穿越断层及其上覆土层的浅埋地下结构的破坏是极其严重的。通过开展节段双仓管廊结构穿越45°逆断层的1∶30室内相似模型试验,对双仓管廊结构的位移、应变和接触压力分布规律等主要参数开展实时监测,并结合结构的渐进破坏过程、破坏模式和分布特征进行深入分析,以清晰揭示逆断层错动作用下节段双仓管廊结构的力学响应规律和致灾机理。结果表明:柔性接头可较好地释放断层蠕滑错动产生的能量和强制位移,并减小施加在结构上的弯曲剪切复合作用。节段衬砌结构的相邻节段影响较小,仅在C~E块的接头处出现局部破坏,避免了结构出现整体坍塌。上盘区域内管廊结构的位移变化明显。靠近断层面的双仓管廊结构的内力响应显著,尤其是70~120cm管廊结构破坏严重,应作为重点设防区域。逆断层错动完成后,双仓管廊结构易出现张拉和压缩破坏,其开裂破坏形式主要有裂缝、环间错台和剥落掉块。可见采用柔性接头措施可有效提高穿越断层的地下结构的抗断性能和震后保通能力。

增子坊煤矿5102回风顺槽支护应用分析

针对增子坊煤矿5102回风顺槽掘进工作面接近断层时遇到的支护失效、巷道变形等问题,为确保施工安全,拟定采用“锚固剂+锚杆+钢带+锚索”联合支护补强支护方案;实践证明,该支护方案能有效地增加工作面围岩的稳定性,巷道顶板变形、下沉以及移近等情况减少,锚索和锚杆支护作用增强,顶板事故明显减少,能够保证矿井安全生产。

云环境下跨层级间歇故障行为建模与量化分析

间歇故障具有随机性,复杂的机理与表现会导致传统诊断方法不再有效,尤其是对于云计算环境,因为长时间运转、高负载运行以及集群规模大等因素致使间歇故障易感性居高。针对此问题,提出了一种基于跨层级间歇故障传播行为的建模与量化分析方法。该方法对间歇故障行为演化进行跟踪并量化分析,包括发现并记录故障在云环境不同层级的传播,构建传播路径,量化间歇故障对结构级、固件、超特权、特权和用户层级的影响,以及故障模型参数对系统影响的比较,以为云环境下间歇故障诊断策略提供辅助诊断信息和指导。

基于IQPSO-GA优化ANFIS模型的服务器故障预警方法

针对服务器底层部分业务类硬件故障对系统稳定运行的影响,提出一种改进的量子行为粒子群优化(IQPSO)与遗传算法(GA)相结合的混合元启发式优化算法对自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)参数进行训练,以获得更准确的ANFIS规则进行硬件故障预警的方法;首先,通过分析服务器业务与硬件相关参数之间的映射关系,通过采集的数据集对ANFIS模型进行训练构造预测模型;其次,考虑ANFIS在梯度计算过程中存在容易陷入局部最优值的问题,设计了一种IQPSO算法结合GA中的交叉和变异算子操作混合元启发算法全局搜索ANFIS规则参数;最后,通过一组后处理样本数据集对所提方法有效性和稳定性进行了检验;实验结果表明,该方法可有效预警服务器硬件故障,基于所提混合元启发优化算法获得的ANFIS模型具备更快的收敛速度和更高的全局搜索精度,与传统ANFIS模型相比泛化精度提高了47%以上。

Features of the fault system and its relationship with migration and accumulation of hydrocarbon in Liaodong Bay

The fault system of Liaodong Bay developed extensively under the control of the Tanlu Fault. The fault system can be grouped into strike-slip faults of grade Ⅰ, trunk faults of grade Ⅱand branch faults （induced faults） of grade Ⅲ respectively based on its developmental scale. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱwere deep, early and large while the faults of grade Ⅲwere shallow, late and small. The formation, evolution and distribution features played a significant role in controlling the migration of oil and gas in both horizontal and vertical directions. The fluid transfer in the fault system occurred in the process of faulting. The strike-slip and trunk faults moved actively forming predominant pathways for oil and gas migration. The branch faults, with weak activity, generally controlled the development of traps and were beneficial for the accumulation and preservation of oil and gas. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱ formed the major migration pathways for oil and gas, but their fault activity rates appeared to vary along their strikes. The zones with a relatively low fault activity rate might be favorable for oil and gas accumulation. When the activities of strike-slip, trunk, and branch faults came to a halt, the fault seal behavior had a vitally important effect on the accumulation of oil and gas. The controlling role of the fault over fluid distribution was further analyzed by calculating the fault activity quantitatively.

强噪声下轴承故障频率的粒子群随机共振提取

为了提取强噪声背景下轴承故障的特征频率,设计了基于变尺度随机共振系统的有用信号增强方法。介绍了滚动轴承结构和不同位置故障的特征;分析了随机共振理论仅适用于低噪声、小频率的问题,针对性地设计了变尺度随机共振系统,扩展了该理论的应用范围;并提出了多行为粒子群算法的随机共振系统参数优化方法。经仿真验证,在信噪比为-20 dB的强噪声背景下,变尺度随机共振系统仍能够有效提取有用信号中的故障特征频率;经西安交通大学公开轴承实验数据集XJTU-SY验证,在强噪声背景下,采用稀疏重构法提取的故障特征频率仍被淹没在附近频域中,而变尺度随机共振系统提取的故障特征频率在159.7 Hz明显凸显,且提取的故障特征频率更接近真实值。实验结果表明,在强噪声背景下,变尺度随机共振系统能够有效提取振动信号中的故障特征频率。

CoNi基合金力学行为与变形机制的原位探究

采用真空电弧熔炼、高温锻造及室温拔丝技术制备了Co_(62)Ni_(38)与Cr_(8)Co_(62)Ni_(30)(原子百分比)两种合金丝材。利用拉伸实验表征了两种合金的力学行为,利用穿透式广角X射线衍射技术原位追踪了合金变形过程中晶格参数与相结构演变。随后根据原位X射线衍射数据计算了两种合金的层错能与相变自由能,并与力学行为及变形机制建立联系。结果表明,Cr元素添加使合金屈服强度、抗拉强度、均匀伸长率及加工硬化率同时提升。原位X射线衍射结果表明Co_(62)Ni_(38)合金变形过程中未发生相变,Cr_(8)Co_(62)Ni_(3)0合金变形过程中发生应力诱发马氏体相变,且Cr_(8)Co_(62)Ni_(3)0合金层错能相比Co_(62)Ni_(38)合金下降约18%,相变自由能下降约42%。综上,Cr元素添加产生了固溶强化效应,有效降低了合金的层错能与相变自由能,促进应力诱发相变,使加工硬化率显著提高,从而明显改善合金的力学性能。

组织容错氛围对建言行为的“双刃剑”影响研究——以组织信任和心理特权为中介

组织容错氛围对促进员工工作积极性、激励创新行为有重要作用。已有研究主要探讨组织容错氛围对员工和组织带来的正面影响,而忽略了其可能带来的负面影响,尤其缺乏将正向和负向影响同时考虑的相关研究。文章基于社会交换理论,以组织信任、心理特权为中介变量,构建了一个双中介模型,旨在揭示组织容错氛围经由这两个中介对员工建言行为的“双刃剑”影响。结果表明:组织容错氛围与组织信任呈正相关;组织信任与建言行为呈正相关;组织信任在组织容错氛围和建言行为的关系中起中介作用;组织容错氛围与心理特权呈正相关;心理特权与建言行为呈负相关;心理特权在组织容错氛围和建言行为的关系中起中介作用。

Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

Based on the earthquake data of 11 active intraplate fault zones of the Chinese mainland, we have studied the earthquake recurrence behaviors on entire active fault zones and their relations to those on individual fault-segments. The results show that the earthquake recurrence on entire active fault zones, each of them is made up of multiple segments, displays three types of behavior, i.e., the clustering behavior, the random behavior, and the poor quasi-periodic behavior. The major one is the sparse clustering behavior, its recurrence process often exhibits that clusters (active periods) and gaps (quiescent periods) occur alternatively in varying degrees. The recurrence intervals within and between clusters, the durations of individual clusters, the earthquake number and strength of every cluster are all variable. The recurrence process is non-linear, there is neither the strength-time dependence nor the time-strength dependence. However, the earthquake recurrence processes on individual fault-segments are much more simple, and mainly display either the quasi-periodic or the time-predictable behaviors. Also, this study further discovers that the temporal clustering in earthquake recurrence process on entire fault zones is mainly caused by the rupture 'contagion' on different fault-segments within relatively short periods of time. Along active fault zones, the degree and orientation of rupture 'contagion' may vary with different seismic cycles, and the 'contagion' seems to be able to jump over unbroken 'gaps' on the fault zones.

低层错能镍基单晶高温合金压缩行为和变形组织的温度相关性

在室温至1000℃的范围内,研究温度对一种低层错能镍基单晶高温合金压缩行为和变形组织的影响。研究结果表明,压缩行为和变形组织均表现出温度相关性。室温下该合金具有较高屈服强度,600℃时屈服强度有所下降;随后,随着温度的升高,屈服强度持续增加,并在800℃时达到最大值;在800℃以上时,屈服强度迅速降低。通过透射电子显微镜观察揭示合金变形机制。位错缠结和位错对塞积是室温下屈服强度较高的主要原因。在600℃时,变形机制从反相畴界切割向堆垛层错切割转变,这导致屈服强度略有下降。在800℃时,变形机制以堆垛层错切割为主,而Lomer-Cottrell锁和不同方向堆垛层错之间的反应导致最大的屈服强度。在900℃及以上时,虽然仍存在一些层错,但主要变形机制为位错绕过机制。最后,讨论变形机制和压缩行为的温度依赖性。