A Novel Product Remaining Useful Life Prediction Approach Considering Fault Effects

In this paper,a novel remaining useful life prediction approach considering fault effects is proposed.The Wiener process is used to construct the degradation process of single performance characteristic with the fault effects.The first passage time based remaining useful life distribution is calculated by assuming fault occurrence moment is a random variable and follows a certain distribution.Expectation maximization algorithm is employed to estimate model parameters,where the fault occurrence moment is considered as a missing data.Finally,a Copula function is used to describe the dependence between the multiple performance characteristics and derive joint remaining useful life(RUL)distribution of product with the fault effects.The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by the experiments of turbofan engines.

Traveling wave effect on the seismic response of a steel arch bridge subjected to near fault ground motions

In the 1990s, several major earthquakes occurred throughout the world, with a common observation that near fault ground motion （NFGM） characteristics had a distinct impact on causing damage to civil engineering structures that could not be predicted by using far field ground motions. Since then, seismic responses of structures under NFGMs have been extensively examined, with most of the studies focusing on structures with relatively short fundamental periods, where the traveling wave effect does not need to be considered. However, for long span bridges, especially arch bridges, the traveling wave （only time delay considered） effect may be very distinct and is therefore important. In this paper, the results from a case study on the seismic response of a steel arch bridge under selected NFGMs is presented by considering the traveling wave effect with variable apparent velocities. The effects of fling step and long period pulses of NFGMs on the seismic responses of the arch bridge are also discussed.

Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects

Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis （PSHA） is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. （1997） model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker （2011） model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.

GEOCHEMICAL EFFECTS OF MAJOR ELEMENTS DURING FLUID ROCKS INTERAC TION IN MARINWOBO FAULT IN THE SOUTH MARGIN AREAS OF ALTAI MOUNTAINS

There are four types of metamorphic rocks in the Marinwobo fault, i.e, cataclasite, mylonite, mictosite and migmatitic granite, and the formation of these rocks is due to the progressive metamorphism of the pyroclastics. The fluids play a very important role in the metamorphic process of these rocks in the Marinwobo fault, the most important feature is that the fluids not only result in the migration of the major elements of the deformation rocks, but also result in the volume loss of the deformation rocks in the deformation process. Thus the migration laws of the major elements in different stages of the progressive metamorphic process are discussed according to mass balance equations. Finally, the quantitative analysis of the mass loss and volume loss of the different rocks the in Marinwobo fault is discussed in this paper.

Geometric effects resulting from the asymmetry of dipping fault:Hanging wall/ footwall effects

Root-mean-square distance Drms with characteristic of weighted-average is introduced in this article firstly. Drms can be used to capture the general proximity of a site to a dipping fault plane comparing with the rupture distance Drup and the seismogenic distance Dseis. Then, using Drup, Dseis and Drms, the hanging wall/footwall effects on the peak ground acceleration (PGA) during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake are evaluated by regression analysis. The logarithm residual shows that the PGA on hanging wall is much greater than that on footwall at the same Drup or Dseis when the Drup or Dseis is used as site-to-source distance measure. In contrast, there is no significant difference between the PGA on hanging wall and that on footwall at the same Drms when Drms is used. This result confirms that the hanging wall/footwall effect is mainly a geometric effect caused by the asymmetry of dipping fault. Therefore, the hanging wall/footwall effect on the near-fault ground motions can be ignored in the future attenuation analysis if the root-mean-square distance Drms is used as the site-to-source distance measure.

Fault－weakening effect of reservoir temperature of hot spring and its influence on seismic activities

In this paper, the reservoir temperatures of 14 hot spring samples collected from the northern segment of theRed River Fault are calculated by using the mixing-model of SiO2-geothermometer. Based on the features ofreservoir temperatures and densities of hot springs, the northern segment of the Red River Fault is furtherdivided into 4 sub-segments. The influence of weakening effect of water on seismic activities is discussed fromthe view point of fault-weakening effect of water. It is suggested that the difference in seismic activity between various sub-segments is principally caused by the difference in intensity of the fault-weakening effect ofwater of these sub-segments. The Eryuan sub-segment where the reservoir temperatures are high and the hotsprings are dense corresponds to a slipped region, however, the Jianchuan and Midu sub-segments where thereservoir temperatures are lower and the hot springs are fewer as well as the Dan sub-segment where the hotspring are very few all correspond to locked regions. It is suggested that Dan sub-segment is the riskiest region for strong earthquake preparation, while the possibility for strong earthquake preparation is very little inthe Eryuan sub-segment.

Analysis of insidious fault activation and water inrush from the mining floor

Based on the stress field distribution rule of the mining floor under abutment pressure, we have established a simplified mechanical model, which contains multiple factors relating to activation and evolution of insidious water-conductive faults. The influence of normal and shear stresses on fault activation and effective shear stress distribution in the fault plane was acquired under mining conditions.Using fracture mechanics theory to calculate the stress intensity factor of an insidious fault front, we have derived the criterion for main fault activation. Results indicate that during the whole working face advance, transpressions are exerted on fault planes twice successively in opposite directions. In most cases, the second transpression is more likely to lead to fault activation. Activation is influenced by many factors, predominant among which are: burial depth of the insidious fault, friction angle of the fault plane, face advance direction and pore water pressure. Steep fault planes are more easily activated to induce a sustained water inrush in the face.

Near-fault ground motion bi-normalized pseudo-velocity spectra and its applications

Ground motions with forward-directivity effect in the near-fault region are obviously different from ordinary far-field ground motions. Design spectral models for this kind of motions have been proposed by correlating simple pulses with parameters attenuation relationships in a previous study of the authors. To further test the applica- bility of the established design spectral model, we analyze ground motion pseudo-velocity response spectra （PVS）, normalized pseudo-velocity spectra （NPVS） and bi-normalized pseudo-velocity spectra （BNPVS） of 53 typical near-fault forward-directivity ground motions. It is found that BNPVS not only has more salient features to reflect the difference between soil and rock sites, but also has less scattering to reveal the nature of forward-directivity motions. And then, BNPVS is used for prediction of design spectra accounting for the influence of site conditions, and the constructed design spectra are compared with those spectra established previously. It is concluded that site condition can heavily affect ground motions, buildings on rock can be even more dangerous than those on soil sites, in particular for ordinary buildings with short to middle vibration periods. Finally, pulse models are also suggested for structural analyses in the near-fault region.

Response spectrum of seismic design code for zones lack of near-fault strong earthquake records

It was shown from the study on the recently near-fault earthquake ground motions that the near-fault effects were seldom considered in the existing Chinese seismic code. Referring to the UBC97 design concept for near-fault factors, based on the collected world-widely free-site records of near-fault earthquakes ground motions classified by earthquake magnitude and site condition, the attenuation relationship expressions of the acceleration spectrum demand at the key points within the long period and moderate period were established in term of the earthquake magnitude and the site condition. Furthermore, the near-fault factors＇ expressions about the earthquake magnitude and the fault distance were deduced for the area lack of near-fault strong earthquake records. Based on the current Chinese Building Seismic Design Code, the near-fault effect factors and the modified design spectral curves, which were valuable for the seismic design, were proposed to analyze the seismic response of structures.

Adaptive fault-tolerant control based on boundary estimation for space robot under joint actuator faults and uncertain parameters

Since the joint actuator of the space robot executes the control instructions frequently in the harsh space environment,it is prone to the partial loss of control effectiveness(PLCE)fault.An adaptive fault-tolerant control algorithm is designed for a space robot system with the uncertain parameters and the PLCE actuator faults.The mathematical model of the system is established based on the Lagrange method,and the PLCE actuator fault is described as an effectiveness factor.The lower bound of the effectiveness factors and the upper bound of the uncertain parameters are estimated by an adaptive strategy,and the estimated value is fed back to the control algorithm.Compared with the traditional fault-tolerant algorithms,the proposed algorithm does not need to predetermine the lower bound of the effectiveness factor,hence it is more in line with the actual engineering application.It is proved that the algorithm can guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system based on the Lyapunov function method.The numerical simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can not only compensate for the uncertain parameters,but also can tolerate the PLCE actuator faults effectively,which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the control scheme.

Considering the Fault Dependency Concept with Debugging Time Lag in Software Reliability Growth Modeling Using a Power Function of Testing Time

Since the early 1970s tremendous growth has been seen in the research of software reliability growth modeling. In general, software reliability growth models （SRGMs） are applicable to the late stages of testing in software development and they can provide useful information about how to improve the reliability of software products. A number of SRGMs have been proposed in the literature to represent time-dependent fault identification / removal phenomenon; still new models are being proposed that could fit a greater number of reliability growth curves. Often, it is assumed that detected faults are immediately corrected when mathematical models are developed. This assumption may not be realistic in practice because the time to remove a detected fault depends on the complexity of the fault, the skill and experience of the personnel, the size of the debugging team, the technique, and so on. Thus, the detected fault need not be immediately removed, and it may lag the fault detection process by a delay effect factor. In this paper, we first review how different software reliability growth models have been developed, where fault detection process is dependent not only on the number of residual fault content but also on the testing time, and see how these models can be reinterpreted as the delayed fault detection model by using a delay effect factor. Based on the power function of the testing time concept, we propose four new SRGMs that assume the presence of two types of faults in the software： leading and dependent faults. Leading faults are those that can be removed upon a failure being observed. However, dependent faults are masked by leading faults and can only be removed after the corresponding leading fault has been removed with a debugging time lag. These models have been tested on real software error data to show its goodness of fit, predictive validity and applicability.

A note on the surface motion of a semi-cylindrical canyon for incident cylindrical SH waves radiated by a finite fault

The plane-wave assumption for incident SH waves can be a good approximation for cylindrical and spherical waves radiated from finite sources, even when the source is as close as twice the size of the inhomogeneity, and when the source and the inhomogeneity are described within the same coordinate system. However, in a more general setting, and when the fault＇s radiation pattern must be considered, the plane-wave approximation may not yield satisfactory answers for arbitrary orientation of the fault. Jalali et al. （2015） demonstrated this for a semi-cylindrical, sedimentary valley, and in this study we extend their results to a case in which the semi-circular, sedimentary valley is replaced by a canyon. We describe the effects of incident cylindrical waves on the amplitudes of surface motion in and near the semi-cylindrical canyon when the causative faults are at different distances and have different curvatures and orientations.

The Effect of Active Tectonic to Morphology of Alluvial Fan of Shahdad in Kerman-lran

The alluvial fan of the Shahdad in Derakt-Tangan River is one of the biggest alleviation in total dry area in the north eastern Kerman. This alluvial fan is formed effected by different materials erosion in drainage basin of Derakt-Tangan River and laying these materials in the final part of this drainage basin called Lut. Tectonics activate with efficacy in the place of the settlement of the alluvial fan. The region, which is being studied, is one of the active tectonic regions. The severe tectonic activities in the studying region have been proved by several observations. One of the most important evidences in the region is the various faults in the area and implies to fan alluvium （from head to end）, study line profile in past and present. The most important fault of the region is the great fault of ＂Nay band＂, the southern fault of Shahdad and the series of faults having the direction of north-western to south-eastern and northern and southern. The drainage basin of alluvial fan of the Derakt-Tangan River leads from east to Kavir-lut, from west to the Baghe-Bala Mountains and Kalisaky from The aim of this article is the morphology of Derakt-Tangan north to the altitutes of Dahran and from south to the mountains of Jeffan river fan indicative on neotectonics in the region.

Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation along the fault intersection zone-a case study on the reef-flat systems of the No.1 slope break zone in the Tazhong area, Tarim Basin

Understanding hydrocarbon migration and accumulation mechanisms is one of the key scientif ic problems that should be solved for effective hydrocarbon exploration in the superimposed basins developed in northwest China. The northwest striking No.1 slope break zone, which is a representative of superimposed basins in the Tarim Basin, can be divided into five parts due to the intersection of the northeast strike-slip faults. Controlled by the tectonic framework, the types and properties of reservoirs and the hydrocarbon compositions can also be divided into five parts from east to west. Anomalies of all the parameters were found on the fault intersection zone and weakened up-dip along the structural ridge away from it. Thus, it can be inferred that the intersection zone is the hydrocarbon charging position. This new conclusion differs greatly from the traditional viewpoint, which believes that the hydrocarbon migrates and accumulates along the whole plane of the No.1 slope break zone. The viewpoint is further supported by the evidence from the theory of main pathway systems, obvious improvement of the reservoir quality （2-3 orders of magnitude at the intersection zone） and the formation mechanisms of the fault intersection zone. Differential hydrocarbon migration and entrapment exists in and around the strike- slip faults. This is controlled by the internal structure of faults. It is concluded that the more complicated the fault structure is, the more significant the effects will be. If there is a deformation band, it will hinder the cross fault migration due to the common feature of two to four orders of magnitude reduction in permeability. Otherwise, hydrocarbons tend to accumulate in the up-dip structure under the control of buoyancy. Further research on the internal fault structure should be emphasized.

Possible dynamics of normal－fault earthquakes in the upper crust of the south part of the Qinghai－Xizang Plateau

A numerical model for generating normal fault earthquakes in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau′S upper crust is constructed with 3-D elasto-viscous finite element method. Based on the numerical simulation calculation,some conclusions were got:If the effective viscosity of the upper crust material is less than that of lower strata of the crust in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, even under the strong push of India continent,the stress state of the upper crust can still be extensional in south part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Numerical simulations show that the stress state changes with the depth of the lithosphere,from extensional stress state in upper crust to compressive in the lower part.Extensional stress state may exist mainly in the upper crust of the south part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Response analysis of a submarine cable under fault movement

Based on the performance of submarine cables in past earthquakes, an analytical method to determine cable performance under seabed fault movement is proposed in this paper. First, common types of earthquake damage to submarine cables are summarized, which include seabed displacement induced by fault movement, submarine landslides and seabed soil liquefaction, etc. The damage is similar to damage observed to buried pipelines following land earthquakes. The Hengchun earthquake of Dec. 26, 2006 is used as a case study. The M7.2 earthquake occurred in the South China Sea at 20：26 Beijing Time, and caused 14 international submarine cables to sever and break. The results show that the proposed method predicts damage similar to that observed in the Hengchun earthquake. Based on parametric studies of the influence of the water depth and the magnitude of the submarine earthquake, countermeasures to prevent damage to submarine cables are proposed.

特厚煤层底板断层破坏与顶板垮断联动效应的CFDEM模拟研究

特厚煤层采场空间大、覆岩扰动范围广,顶板垮断产生的强扰动加卸荷载易导致底板断层破坏加剧。通过数值模拟研究特厚煤层底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应机理规律是开展水害防治的基础,关键在于掌握加卸载下岩体渐进破坏与裂隙流耦合特征。构建加卸载下拉、剪损伤演化方程,结合有效偏/球应力为基本变量的屈服准则与塑性势函数,得到完整岩块的塑性损伤本构;建立拉/剪、混合型加卸载过程中塑性位移与强度劣化关系,以平方拉剪应力与B-K准则为初始、完全断裂准则,形成非贯通裂隙断裂本构;提出岩块分离、压缩、剪切判据,结合实验数据建立离散块体间挤压、剪切摩擦本构与剪胀方程。基于质量/动量守恒、状态方程,并结合流体体积与浸没边界方法,形成裂隙岩体气−水二相流模拟理论。由此形成CFDEM数值计算程序,并将加卸载下塑性损伤、断裂、挤压/摩擦、流体属性分别赋予实体单元(岩块)、黏聚力单元(非贯通裂隙)、接触对(贯通裂隙)、欧拉单元(水和气)。根据宁武煤田北部矿区工程地质条件,建立特厚煤层底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应数值计算模型。结果表明:①CFDEM耦合程序及相应的理论模型可数值实现特厚煤层覆岩及底板断层从(准)连续体到离散体转化,以及地下水在裂隙中运移;②模拟条件下特厚煤层含断层底板的采动裂隙包络线呈w形,最深处超过55 m位于断层及其上盘,最浅处23 m位于断层下盘,而无构造底板处的破坏深度为24~36 m,已导通奥灰含水层;③特厚煤层底板普遍出现二次破坏现象。表现为无构造底板在超前工作面处破坏深度为24.0~29.3 m,但在采空区内普遍增加至31.5~36.0 m;断层及其上盘在超前工作面处裂隙总开度为0.34~0.86 m,但在采空区内迅速增加至3.6 m,形成突水优势通道。④底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应的根源在于覆岩高位关键岩层垮断失稳、砌体梁下沉与二次断裂,并导致底板二次破坏,突水风险加剧。

深层-超深层致密储层天然裂缝分布特征及发育规律

天然裂缝是深层-超深层致密储层的有效储集空间和主要渗流通道,影响着致密储层油气的运移、富集、单井产能、开发方式及开发效果。通过对近年来致密储层裂缝研究成果总结和文献综述,分析了深层-超深层致密储层天然裂缝分布特征及发育规律。将致密储层天然裂缝分为大尺度裂缝、中尺度裂缝、小尺度裂缝和微尺度裂缝4个级别。不同尺度裂缝分布具有幂律分布的特点,裂缝尺度越大,数量越少;裂缝尺度越小,数量越多。大、中尺度裂缝主要起渗流作用,小尺度裂缝主要起渗流和储集作用,而微尺度裂缝主要起储集作用。在地层埋藏过程中的应力体制演化决定了不同时期天然裂缝的类型、产状及其力学性质;构造应力大小、岩石力学层的力学性质和厚度差异控制了多尺度裂缝的形成分布及其发育程度。构造变形导致不同构造部位的局部应力和应变分布产生差异,增强了裂缝发育的非均质性。逆冲断层通过控制其上盘地层变形控制了“裂缝域”的分布规律;走滑断层的组合样式、活动方式和岩石力学层共同控制了相关裂缝的三维空间展布。裂缝形成演化过程中的开启-闭合规律决定了裂缝的储集空间,记录了裂缝有效性的演化历史。

Theoretical Investigation of Seismic Electric Field Associated with Faulting

We present an electromagnetic model of a fault using the piezoelectric effect and the elastic dislocation theory to investigate theoretically the spatial distribution of the stress-induced charges associated with faulting. The relevant seismic electric field associated with these induced charges can be estimated quantitatively. Therefore, this simple model would provide a solid framework for additional theoretical developments on the explanations of the anomalous seismoelectric signals. The spatial distribution of the stress-induced charges around a vertical rectangular fault showed complicated characteristics. The estimation of the electric field associated with the stress-induced charges during the 1995 Kobe earthquake was consistent with the previous investigation from some reported anomalous seismic phenomena.

基于运动学震源的察隅Mw8.6级地震动模拟

为获取1950年察隅Mw8.6级地震的地震动空间分布规律,探讨震源模型对模拟地震动影响以及地震对雅鲁藏布江下游区的影响,在前人研究基础上分别建立单断层和双断层运动学混合震源模型,综合考虑中国大陆岩石圈速度结构模型USTClitho1.0和全球地壳模型Crust1.0,分别构建单断层模型场地和双断层模型场地对应的地下一维速度结构,采用谱元法对察隅Mw8.6地震开展了目标区域地震动合成研究。通过对比分析目标区域4个观测点的模拟加速度时程、反应谱与前人研究结果的异同,验证了本文所构建模型的适用性。研究结果表明:(1)地表地震动强度大,断裂带投影区域,单、双断层模型最大PGA分别达1050和1145 cm/s^(2),最大PGV分别达472和291 cm/s,最大PGD分别达107和652 cm;(2)震源模型对模拟地震动影响大,单、双断层模型断裂带地表投影区最大PGA、PGV和PGD分别差95 cm/s^(2)、181 cm/s及545 cm;(3)单断层模型地震动随断层距的衰减拟合效果优于双断层模型地震动,除双断层模型EW分量PGD值随断层距增大而衰减的速度慢于其他两分量外,单、双断层模型的PGA、PGV及其余各分量的PGD随断层距增大的衰减速度相当;上盘地震动随断层距增加的衰减速率快于下盘;(4)察隅Mw8.6级地震在各拟建工程场点均产生了较强的地震动和明显的永久地表位移,为防止大震可能造成的严重地震灾害,建议各工程场点采取必要的措施减轻震害损失。