Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland's Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11th Five-year Plan （2006-2010）, the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and culturalconcepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.

The Difficulties in Raising Fertility Rates-The Deficiencies and Improvements of the Maternity Protection System for Women of Childbearing Age

Fertility policies consist of not only the legal definition of"procreation",but also the"maternity"protection system,the complete set of selfconsistent social relations and policy systems formed around"fertility".Gender,labor and intergenerational relations are the cornerstones of a fertility policy system.In this framework,we focus on women of childbearing age as the main actors of reproductive behaviors,to research how drastic social changes have altered women,the above-mentioned relations,and policy support and analyze the structural factors that restrict women’s reproductive intentions.The traditional male breadwinner model,which can no longer prevail and the relatively slow development of maternity protection policies and service systems leave women of childbearing age in a dilemma between working hours and birth timing.Therefore,maternity protection policies should focus on improved decommodification of maternity insurance and the construction of women and children’s social welfare systems including childcare social service systems.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

The Effect of Family Size on Children＇s Education： Evidence from the Fertility Control Policy in China

Empirical research on the effect of family size on child education is complicated by the endogeneity of family size. This study exploits plausibly exogenous changes in family size caused by China＇s population control policy to estimate the causal relationship between family size and child education outcomes. The results show that, compared to an only child, a person with an additional sibling will have an approximate seventeen percentage points lower likelihood of completing middle school in China. Separate regressions across individual characteristics reveal that much of this negative effect appears to be driven by the cohorts born in earlier years after the policy, and children with the highest birth order within a family.

Effect of Sex Composition of Children on the Gender of Next Birth in the Context of Low Fertility in Rural China

China currently has the world's most skewed national sex ratio at birth.In this paper,we use data from China's 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic models to study how macro factors(mainly fertility policy and economic indicators,as represented by per capita GDP of the village units sampled in this research)and micro factors(mainly fertility intention and sex composition of children)affect the gender of the next birth.We find that the effect of fertility policies is intertwined with the sex composition of children already born.For those couples who have had a son(or sons),fertility policy exerts no effect;but for those with only daughters,the effect is significant.Furthermore,fertility intention,independent from fertility policy,has a significant effect on the gender of the next birth.

A review of the development of maternity leave policy in China over the past 70 years

This study analyzes the changes in maternity leave policy in China during the past 70 years by reviewing the documents issued since 1949.During these years,the length of maternity leave increased from 56 days initially to 98 days,and finally to as much as 128 to 365 days.The sums paid to women taking maternity leave gradu-ally increased and an insurance mechanism was introduced.There were changes in the intent and focus of policies:(1)A change in the intention of maternity leave policy from protecting the rights and interests of women only to protecting those of both women and children.(2)A change in focus from one of implementing national family planning policy to one of protecting the rights of individuals.(3)A change in the focus point of policies from the home only to the workplace and the home.(4)An increased focus on gender equity evidenced by gradual introduction of pater-nity leave policy.Although maternity leave policy has improved over the years,challenges still exist including significant differences in the policy environment at the provincial level,and difficulties in implementing policy in some regions and enterprises.

Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of“Cold”Response to“Two-Child”Policy

Recently,the policy of relaxing the“two-child”birth control has obviously met a“cold”response,and China’s population growth is facing a huge risk of“cliff-type”decline.Using text analysis and quasi-experimental method,this paper theoretically and empirically demonstrates the change of fertility costs in urban and rural areas and its influence on fertility rate,and then on the effect of“two-child”fertility policy.The results show that,in recent years,as fertility costs change,the fertility desire of rural families has greatly reduced,while those of urban families has increased slightly,then the fertility desire of urban and rural areas declines in general.At the same time,the actual fertility rate is much lower than the desirable fertility level,so the“two-child”policy fails to achieve satisfactory results.the key to the future population policy reform in China is to draw lessons from the historical experience of developed countries and eliminate the adverse effects of changes in fertility costs through fertility incentives measures.

Association of interpregnancy interval and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in woman by different previous gestational ages

Background:With an increasing proportion of multiparas,proper interpregnancy intervals(IPIs)are urgently needed.However,the association between IPIs and adverse perinatal outcomes has always been debated.This study aimed to explore the association between IPIs and adverse outcomes in different fertility policy periods and for different previous gestational ages.Methods:We used individual data from China’s National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System between 2014 and 2019.Multivariable Poisson models with restricted cubic splines were used.Each adverse outcome was analyzed separately in the overall model and stratified models.The stratified models included different categories of fertility policy periods(2014-2015,2016-2017,and 2018-2019)and infant gestational age in previous pregnancy(<28 weeks,28-36 weeks,and≥37 weeks).Results:There were 781,731 pregnancies enrolled in this study.A short IPI(≤6 months)was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth(OR[95%CI]:1.63[1.55,1.71]for vaginal delivery[VD]and 1.10[1.03,1.19]for cesarean section[CS]),low Apgar scores and small for gestational age(SGA),and a decreased risk of diabetes mellitus in pregnancy,preeclampsia or eclampsia,and gestational hypertension.A long IPI(≥60 months)was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth(OR[95%CI]:1.18[1.11,1.26]for VD and 1.39[1.32,1.47]for CS),placenta previa,postpartum hemorrhage,diabetes mellitus in pregnancy,preeclampsia or eclampsia,and gestational hypertension.Fertility policy changes had little effect on the association of IPIs and adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.The estimated risk of preterm birth,low Apgar scores,SGA,diabetes mellitus in pregnancy,and gestational hypertension was more profound among women with previous term births than among those with preterm births or pregnancy loss.Conclusion:For pregnant women with shorter or longer IPIs,more targeted health care measures during pregnancy should be formulated according to infant gestational age in previous pregnancy.

The past, present, and future of population geography in China：Progress, challenges and opportunities

Population geography （PopGeo）, although a sub-discipline of human geography, should have been well developed in China in light of its national population size and unique demographic issues, regional socio-economic development, and biophysical differences. Yet it typically lags behind the development of its parent disciplines, especially demography and geography. Specifically, PopGeo in Chinese higher education is still at a low level in terms of the three major aspects of disciplinary development： academic majors for higher education, academic conferences, and journals. The research content of PopGeo in China has focused on the growth, composition, change, distribution, and carrying capacity of population at the meso- and macro-spatial scales. As the most populated country in the world, questions about how and why the population changes, where the population settles and migrates to, its maximum carrying capacity, and how to guide sound development of population matter to society and the economy, are always important topics in the PopGeo studies in China. In contrast, some new population phenomena such as human space-time behaviors （commuting, remittances, and friends＇ interaction）, popular in the scientific community abroad, are not fully investigated at the micro-level. Presently, PopGeo in China may face both challenges and opportunities because of the adjustment of fertility policies and implementation of na- tional new urbanization plans at the national level. It is this occasion that calls for a state-of-the-art review of the development of PopGeo since the 1980s, the turning point of an increasing number of PopGeo studies in China. We aim to reveal the current status of Pop- Geo in China to the world, and shed light on its further study.