Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the le...Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the level of financial risk.The relationship between the degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation and financial risk is explored,which is crucial for reducing financial risk.Panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 is used to explore the impact of fintech and financial regulatory matching levels on financial risk.The study finds that the improved matching level between fintech and financial regulation helps reduce financial risk.The degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation affects financial risk through financial efficiency.展开更多
As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of co...As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of corporate financial risk.Based on the data of The Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE)and Shenzhen Stock Exchange(SZSE)from 2009 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on corporate financial risk and the impact mechanism.The empirical study finds that digital transformation significantly increases the financial risk of enterprises,and shows differences among different regions,different risk factors,and enterprise natures,and substantially increases the corporate financial risk in the East and West,non-state-owned enterprises,high-risk and low-risk enterprises.The mechanism analysis found that digital transformation would affect the financial risk of enterprises by increasing their R&D investment and reducing their debt level.The conclusion improves insights and guidance for analyzing and managing financial risks in enterprises under digital transformation.展开更多
Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be...Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.展开更多
According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifu...According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.展开更多
Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven deci...Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.展开更多
With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China's coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal...With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China's coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.展开更多
By the mid-1990s, following nearly a century of struggles-two worldwars, continuous coups and clashes, and 40 years of Cold War with itsnuclear threat-mankind seemingly entered a new period of peace, stabili-
Corporate finance activities recur throughout the entire process of production and operation. The financial risk is a signal, which can fully reflect the company' s consolidated operating conditions. Therefore it req...Corporate finance activities recur throughout the entire process of production and operation. The financial risk is a signal, which can fully reflect the company' s consolidated operating conditions. Therefore it requires business owners to conduct regular financial analysis, establish risk awareness, establish effective risk precautionary handling mechanism, strengthen financial risk control, prevent financial crises, establish early warning indicator system, and make proper financial risk decisions. Firstly, a correct understanding of the financial risk from the start, its meaning, characteristics, and so do the reasons for the formation of the exposition clear what financial risks ; Secondly, the financial risk of the formation of a variety of reasons were analyzed.展开更多
It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is e...It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.展开更多
The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been st...The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users.展开更多
With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the tradi...With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the traditional financial concept undergo profound changes. Financial Network is the general trend. Financial innovation has come to an Internet-based and service- oriented way of innovative rapid development stage. As the improvements of the degree of financial services network, how to effectively guard against financial risks under control network environment is an important issue we face.展开更多
In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the marke...In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company's financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.展开更多
THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
Background:In the last few years,there has been a worldwide commitment to protect the vulnerable individuals from higher financial risk through out-of-pocket(OOP)health expenditure.This study examines the influence of...Background:In the last few years,there has been a worldwide commitment to protect the vulnerable individuals from higher financial risk through out-of-pocket(OOP)health expenditure.This study examines the influence of disability and socio-demographic factors on households’health financial risks in Uganda.Methods:We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey(UDHS)collected in 2016 by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics(UBOS)in Uganda.We measured financial risk(households’health expenditure)by money paid for health care services.We estimated the“probit”model to investigate the effect of disability on health financial risk.Results:A total of 19,305 households were included in this study.Almost 32%of households paid money for health care services access,among which 32%paid through out-of-pocket.Almost 41%of household heads were affected by disability.The majority(73%)of families went to the public sector for health care services.The mean age was 45 years(SD±15).We find that disability is significantly associated with the household financial risk(p<0.01).The private sector’s choice for health care services is likely to positively affect the financial risk compared to the public sector(p<0.01).The wealthier the household was,the more money paid for health service was(p<0.01).Conclusion:Our results indicated that disability and household socio-demographic characteristics were associated with health financial risk in Uganda.Identifying families with disability and experiencing difficult living conditions constitute an entry point for health authorities to enhance health coverage progress in low and middle-income countries.展开更多
The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribu...The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribution class, we abtain some asymptotic equivalent relationships for the finite-time ruin probability, respectively. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the dominated varying-tailed distribution class, we obtain asymptotic upper bound and lower bound for the finite-time ruin probability, where for the asymptotic upper bound, we completely get rid of the restriction of mutual independence on insurance risks, and for the lower bound, we only need the insurance risks to have a weak positive association structure. The obtained results extend and improve some existing results.展开更多
We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks amo...We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.展开更多
The shock of the global financial crisis sparked widespread concern across the world about systemic financial risk and led to the reexamination of regulatory mechanisms.The traditional principle of“too big to fail”u...The shock of the global financial crisis sparked widespread concern across the world about systemic financial risk and led to the reexamination of regulatory mechanisms.The traditional principle of“too big to fail”underwent a transformation into the new idea of“too interconnected to fail.”We used Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG)technology and network topology analysis to examine the dynamic evolution of global systemic financial risk and the risk trends in global financial markets from the perspective of network connectivity.Our findings show that financial markets in the Chinese Mainland are net receivers of risk spillovers and that systemic financial risk has a clear cross-market contagion effect due to a global volatility spillover scale of 64 percent.To maintain the stability and security of China’s financial markets,consideration should be given to the regulatory precept of“too interconnected to fail”in establishing macro-prudential risk prevention mechanisms.展开更多
Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quant...Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quantitative analysis method is adopted to analyze the explanatory variable model and the control variable model of financial risk assessment.The market-to-book ratio,asset–liability ratio,cash flow ratio and financing structure model are adopted as constraint parameters to construct a big data analysis model for financial risk assessment.On this basis,the adaptive fuzzy weighted control method is adopted for information fusion of financial risk assessment data and big data classification,and the asset income control and innovative evaluation model are adopted for linear planning and square fitting during financial risk assessment.Based on the intervention factors of financial market participants,quantitative regression analysis is performed,and according to the economic game theory,big data analysis and prediction of financial risk assessment are performed through the regression analysis method.Then the big data fusion and clustering algorithms are adopted for financial risk assessment.The simulation results show that this method can provide a relatively high accuracy in financial risk assessment,and has relatively strong adaptive evaluation capability to the risk coefficient,so it has a good application value in the prevention and control of risk factors in financial systems.展开更多
financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ev...financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ever,and as a result,financial frauds have become a significant challenge.Therefore,combating financial risks in the big data era requires breaking the borders of traditional data,algorithms,and systems.An increasing number of studies have addressed these challenges and proposed new methods for risk detection,assessment,and forecasting.As a key contribution,we categorize these works in a rational framework:first,we identify the data that can be used to identify risks.We then discuss how big data can be combined with the emerging tools to effectively learn or analyze financial risk.Finally,we highlight the effectiveness of these methods in real-world applications.Furthermore,we stress on the importance of utilizing multi-channel information,graphs,and networks of long-range dependence for the effective identification of financial risks.We conclude our survey with a discussion on the new challenges faced by the financial sector,namely,deep fake technology,adversaries,causal and interpretable inference,privacy protection,and microsimulations.展开更多
文摘Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the level of financial risk.The relationship between the degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation and financial risk is explored,which is crucial for reducing financial risk.Panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 is used to explore the impact of fintech and financial regulatory matching levels on financial risk.The study finds that the improved matching level between fintech and financial regulation helps reduce financial risk.The degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation affects financial risk through financial efficiency.
文摘As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of corporate financial risk.Based on the data of The Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE)and Shenzhen Stock Exchange(SZSE)from 2009 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on corporate financial risk and the impact mechanism.The empirical study finds that digital transformation significantly increases the financial risk of enterprises,and shows differences among different regions,different risk factors,and enterprise natures,and substantially increases the corporate financial risk in the East and West,non-state-owned enterprises,high-risk and low-risk enterprises.The mechanism analysis found that digital transformation would affect the financial risk of enterprises by increasing their R&D investment and reducing their debt level.The conclusion improves insights and guidance for analyzing and managing financial risks in enterprises under digital transformation.
基金Project(2011CB013804) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(50925828) supported by the National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
文摘Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70271068)
文摘According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.
文摘Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.
文摘With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China's coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.
文摘By the mid-1990s, following nearly a century of struggles-two worldwars, continuous coups and clashes, and 40 years of Cold War with itsnuclear threat-mankind seemingly entered a new period of peace, stabili-
文摘Corporate finance activities recur throughout the entire process of production and operation. The financial risk is a signal, which can fully reflect the company' s consolidated operating conditions. Therefore it requires business owners to conduct regular financial analysis, establish risk awareness, establish effective risk precautionary handling mechanism, strengthen financial risk control, prevent financial crises, establish early warning indicator system, and make proper financial risk decisions. Firstly, a correct understanding of the financial risk from the start, its meaning, characteristics, and so do the reasons for the formation of the exposition clear what financial risks ; Secondly, the financial risk of the formation of a variety of reasons were analyzed.
基金This paper is funded by the National Social Science Fund titled“Study on the Legal Issues Concerning the Financial Risks and Security of Shadow Banking”(13CXF081).
文摘It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.
文摘The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users.
文摘With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the traditional financial concept undergo profound changes. Financial Network is the general trend. Financial innovation has come to an Internet-based and service- oriented way of innovative rapid development stage. As the improvements of the degree of financial services network, how to effectively guard against financial risks under control network environment is an important issue we face.
文摘In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company's financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.
文摘THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
文摘Background:In the last few years,there has been a worldwide commitment to protect the vulnerable individuals from higher financial risk through out-of-pocket(OOP)health expenditure.This study examines the influence of disability and socio-demographic factors on households’health financial risks in Uganda.Methods:We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey(UDHS)collected in 2016 by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics(UBOS)in Uganda.We measured financial risk(households’health expenditure)by money paid for health care services.We estimated the“probit”model to investigate the effect of disability on health financial risk.Results:A total of 19,305 households were included in this study.Almost 32%of households paid money for health care services access,among which 32%paid through out-of-pocket.Almost 41%of household heads were affected by disability.The majority(73%)of families went to the public sector for health care services.The mean age was 45 years(SD±15).We find that disability is significantly associated with the household financial risk(p<0.01).The private sector’s choice for health care services is likely to positively affect the financial risk compared to the public sector(p<0.01).The wealthier the household was,the more money paid for health service was(p<0.01).Conclusion:Our results indicated that disability and household socio-demographic characteristics were associated with health financial risk in Uganda.Identifying families with disability and experiencing difficult living conditions constitute an entry point for health authorities to enhance health coverage progress in low and middle-income countries.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.10671139)
文摘The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribution class, we abtain some asymptotic equivalent relationships for the finite-time ruin probability, respectively. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the dominated varying-tailed distribution class, we obtain asymptotic upper bound and lower bound for the finite-time ruin probability, where for the asymptotic upper bound, we completely get rid of the restriction of mutual independence on insurance risks, and for the lower bound, we only need the insurance risks to have a weak positive association structure. The obtained results extend and improve some existing results.
基金the Humanities and Social Science Fund Project of Ministry of Education of China(No.20YJA790003)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2020MG039)the Future Plan for Young Scholars of Shandong University(No.2016WLJH05).
文摘We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.
基金the phased result of “Research on Systematic Financial Risk Prevention Mechanisms in China Based on Structured Data Analysis”(17ZDA073)a major project of the National Social Science Fund of China.
文摘The shock of the global financial crisis sparked widespread concern across the world about systemic financial risk and led to the reexamination of regulatory mechanisms.The traditional principle of“too big to fail”underwent a transformation into the new idea of“too interconnected to fail.”We used Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG)technology and network topology analysis to examine the dynamic evolution of global systemic financial risk and the risk trends in global financial markets from the perspective of network connectivity.Our findings show that financial markets in the Chinese Mainland are net receivers of risk spillovers and that systemic financial risk has a clear cross-market contagion effect due to a global volatility spillover scale of 64 percent.To maintain the stability and security of China’s financial markets,consideration should be given to the regulatory precept of“too interconnected to fail”in establishing macro-prudential risk prevention mechanisms.
文摘Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quantitative analysis method is adopted to analyze the explanatory variable model and the control variable model of financial risk assessment.The market-to-book ratio,asset–liability ratio,cash flow ratio and financing structure model are adopted as constraint parameters to construct a big data analysis model for financial risk assessment.On this basis,the adaptive fuzzy weighted control method is adopted for information fusion of financial risk assessment data and big data classification,and the asset income control and innovative evaluation model are adopted for linear planning and square fitting during financial risk assessment.Based on the intervention factors of financial market participants,quantitative regression analysis is performed,and according to the economic game theory,big data analysis and prediction of financial risk assessment are performed through the regression analysis method.Then the big data fusion and clustering algorithms are adopted for financial risk assessment.The simulation results show that this method can provide a relatively high accuracy in financial risk assessment,and has relatively strong adaptive evaluation capability to the risk coefficient,so it has a good application value in the prevention and control of risk factors in financial systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.91746301,61772498,61802370,and 61902380.
文摘financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ever,and as a result,financial frauds have become a significant challenge.Therefore,combating financial risks in the big data era requires breaking the borders of traditional data,algorithms,and systems.An increasing number of studies have addressed these challenges and proposed new methods for risk detection,assessment,and forecasting.As a key contribution,we categorize these works in a rational framework:first,we identify the data that can be used to identify risks.We then discuss how big data can be combined with the emerging tools to effectively learn or analyze financial risk.Finally,we highlight the effectiveness of these methods in real-world applications.Furthermore,we stress on the importance of utilizing multi-channel information,graphs,and networks of long-range dependence for the effective identification of financial risks.We conclude our survey with a discussion on the new challenges faced by the financial sector,namely,deep fake technology,adversaries,causal and interpretable inference,privacy protection,and microsimulations.