The 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia caused the loss of 34 lives and an estimated 100 bn AU$ damage. This has sharpened the apparent division between Australians who believe that the increasing number of bushfires is ...The 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia caused the loss of 34 lives and an estimated 100 bn AU$ damage. This has sharpened the apparent division between Australians who believe that the increasing number of bushfires is due to climate change, and those who suggest that fuel loads must be managed more carefully. Bushfires whose area equals or exceeds 1 mHa have been analysed in this paper. The results show that the number, duration, and size have increased over the period 1850-2020, but that since 1953, there has been a downward trend in the number of big bushfires. There is a range of temperatures of about 20<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C that are associated with the fires, with a modal temperature of 30<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C - 32.5<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C. Using an analysis of the maximum temperatures for the period 1970-2020 as a standard for comparison with bushfires for the period 1850-2020, shows that during bushfire events the standardised temperatures have a downward trend. This is most clearly shown by the application of the Fisher Exact Test. This suggests that the fuel load in forests is a key factor for bushfires. The role of pre-bushfire rainfall shows a rapid rise in the area burnt when the rainfall exceeds 150 mm month<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"=""><sup>-</sup></span><sup>1</sup> which would lead to more plant growth and hence fuel load. The role of traditional burning over the whole of Australia is described based on documentary evidence. A tentative cost benefit analysis has shown that a comprehensive program of wildfire management is cost effective. The recommendations of previous research, National Inquiries and more recent management practices, have all failed to prevent the 2019-20 fire disaster in Australia.展开更多
In this paper,we suggested and studied the inverse length biased Maxell distribution(ILBMD)as a new continuous distribution of one parameter.The ILBMD is obtained by considering the inverse transformation technique of...In this paper,we suggested and studied the inverse length biased Maxell distribution(ILBMD)as a new continuous distribution of one parameter.The ILBMD is obtained by considering the inverse transformation technique of the Maxwell length biased distribution.Statistical characteristics of the ILBMD such as the moments,moment generating function,mode,quantile function,the coefficient of variation,coefficient of skewness,Moors and Bowley measures of kurtosis and skewness,stochastic ordering,stress-strength reliability,and mean deviations are obtained.In addition,the Bonferroni and Lorenz curves,Gini index,the reliability function,the hazard rate function,the reverse hazard rate function,the odds function,and the distributions of order statistics for the ILBMD,are presented.The ILBMD parameter is estimated using the maximum likelihood method,the method of moments,the maximum product of spacing technique,the ordinary and weight least square procedures,and the Cramer-Von-Mises methods.The Fishers information,as well as the Rényi and q-entropies,are derived.To investigate the usefulness of the proposed lifetime distribution and to illustrate the purpose of the study,a real dataset of the relief times of 20 patients receiving an analgesic is used.展开更多
文摘The 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia caused the loss of 34 lives and an estimated 100 bn AU$ damage. This has sharpened the apparent division between Australians who believe that the increasing number of bushfires is due to climate change, and those who suggest that fuel loads must be managed more carefully. Bushfires whose area equals or exceeds 1 mHa have been analysed in this paper. The results show that the number, duration, and size have increased over the period 1850-2020, but that since 1953, there has been a downward trend in the number of big bushfires. There is a range of temperatures of about 20<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C that are associated with the fires, with a modal temperature of 30<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C - 32.5<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"="">°</span>C. Using an analysis of the maximum temperatures for the period 1970-2020 as a standard for comparison with bushfires for the period 1850-2020, shows that during bushfire events the standardised temperatures have a downward trend. This is most clearly shown by the application of the Fisher Exact Test. This suggests that the fuel load in forests is a key factor for bushfires. The role of pre-bushfire rainfall shows a rapid rise in the area burnt when the rainfall exceeds 150 mm month<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:" font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#ffffff;"=""><sup>-</sup></span><sup>1</sup> which would lead to more plant growth and hence fuel load. The role of traditional burning over the whole of Australia is described based on documentary evidence. A tentative cost benefit analysis has shown that a comprehensive program of wildfire management is cost effective. The recommendations of previous research, National Inquiries and more recent management practices, have all failed to prevent the 2019-20 fire disaster in Australia.
基金A.R.A.Alanzi would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research at Majmaah University for financial support and encouragement.
文摘In this paper,we suggested and studied the inverse length biased Maxell distribution(ILBMD)as a new continuous distribution of one parameter.The ILBMD is obtained by considering the inverse transformation technique of the Maxwell length biased distribution.Statistical characteristics of the ILBMD such as the moments,moment generating function,mode,quantile function,the coefficient of variation,coefficient of skewness,Moors and Bowley measures of kurtosis and skewness,stochastic ordering,stress-strength reliability,and mean deviations are obtained.In addition,the Bonferroni and Lorenz curves,Gini index,the reliability function,the hazard rate function,the reverse hazard rate function,the odds function,and the distributions of order statistics for the ILBMD,are presented.The ILBMD parameter is estimated using the maximum likelihood method,the method of moments,the maximum product of spacing technique,the ordinary and weight least square procedures,and the Cramer-Von-Mises methods.The Fishers information,as well as the Rényi and q-entropies,are derived.To investigate the usefulness of the proposed lifetime distribution and to illustrate the purpose of the study,a real dataset of the relief times of 20 patients receiving an analgesic is used.
