Recent geodynamics of major strike-slip zones

The subject of this study is strike-slip fault zones, where temporal variations of accumulation in strike-slip deformation complicate the standard process of deformation accu- mulation and release during strong earthquakes. These temporal variations are expressed in the E1 Ghab segment of the Dead Sea Transform zone （DST, Eastern Mediterranean） and in the Talas-Fergana fault zone （Central Asia）. According to Global Positioning System （GPS） data, the strike-slip deformations within these zones are not now accumulating or are accumulating at a rate that is significantly less than their average rate during the Holocene and Quaternary or the Pliocene-Quaternary. Simultaneously, weak transverse shortening has been measured in both zones by GPS. In both of these zones, strong earthquakes have not registered within the XX century, yet epochs of intensified seismicity （strong earthquakes） took place throughout history. In the southern and central parts of the E1 Ghab zone, there is evidence of 30 strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 5.7; however, no instrumental earthquakes of Ms 〉 5 have been identified. The temporal distribution of seismic energy released by these earthquakes demonstrates a 350 ± 50-year cycle. Values for the seismic energies released during the peak phases of these cycles are approximated by a sinusoid that suggests the possibility of a 〉1800-year cycle （＂hyper-cycle＂）, which began around the 3rd century, reached its maximum in the 12th century, and has continued until now. A combination of geological, archaeoseismological, and geodetic data show that the rate of sinistral strike-slip deformation varied in the fault zone, probably in conformity with the variation of seismicity during the ＂hyper-cycle.＂ In the Talas-Fergana fault zone, trenching and 14C dating that was correlated with right lateral offsets, gave a possible preliminary estimate of the average rates of the Late Holocene strike slip of about 10 mm per year, with a decrease in the SE direction to 4 mm-4.5 mm per year. These studies also showed that the slip in the Talas-Fergana fault zone was realized mainly during strong earthquakes. New trenching and 14C dating of paleoearthquake records identified the epoch of seismicity intensification dating to the XIV-XVII centuries. These paleoearthquakes could produce a total dextral slip at several meters. Therefore, consid- eration of these epochs was necessary to determine a calculated average slip rate during the Late Holocene.

The Coulomb Stress Change Associated with the Taiwan Straits M_S 7.3 Earthquake on September 16,1994 and the Risk Prediction of Its Surrounding Faults

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.