Weighted Markov chains for forecasting and analysis in Incidence of infectious diseases in jiangsu Province,China

This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course.Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain,a method which is used to predict the future incidence state.This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable.It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal.Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province.In summation,this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain,specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.

Forecast and Analysis of China's Lithium Battery Industry in the Next 5 Years

Ⅰ.Favorable factors(Ⅰ)Unveiling of industry norms and standards In the recent several years,portable power charger and portable power bank experienced rapid development,the market is brisk,it is supported by extremely wide population groups for application.Since portable power bank has low access requirements,the industry also

An air quality forecasting system in Beijing-Application to the study of dust storm events in China in May 2008

An air pollution forecast system,ARIA Regional,was implemented in 2007–2008 at the Beijing Municipality Environmental Monitoring Center,providing daily forecast of main pollutant concentrations.The chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was coupled with the dust emission model MB95 for restituting dust storm events in springtime so as to improve forecast results.Dust storm events were sporadic but could be extremely intense and then control air quality indexes close to the source areas but also far in the Beijing area.A dust episode having occurred at the end of May 2008 was analyzed in this article,and its impact of particulate matter on the Chinese air pollution index （API） was evaluated.Following our estimation,about 23 Tg of dust were emitted from source areas in Mongolia and in the Inner Mongolia of China,transporting towards southeast.This episode of dust storm influenced a large part of North China and East China,and also South Korea.The model result was then evaluated using satellite observations and in situ data.The simulated daily concentrations of total suspended particulate at 6：00 UTC had a similar spatial pattern with respect to OMI satellite aerosol index.Temporal evolution of dust plume was evaluated by comparing dust aerosol optical depth （AOD） calculated from the simulations with AOD derived from MODIS satellite products.Finally,the comparison of reported Chinese API in Beijing with API calculated from the simulation including dust emissions had showed the significant improvement of the model results taking into accountmineral dust correctly.