Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China

[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.

Carbon emission risk of construction industry in Hebei Province of China based on carbon sink thresholds

In order to assess the environmental risks caused by carbon emissions from the construction industry in Hebei Province of China,an environmental risk assessment model based on forest carbon sink threshold was constructed to evaluate the carbon emission risks of the construction industry in Hebei Province,China from 2005 to 2020.The results are shown as follows:(1)The overall carbon emissions of the construction industry in Hebei Province of China showed an inverted"V"-shaped evolution trend during the past 16 years.Tangshan and Shijiazhuang maintained high carbon emissions,while Langfang,Hengshui and Baoding saw rapid increases in carbon emissions.(2)The environmental safety threshold of carbon emission from the construction industry in Hebei Province,China,has been continuously improved,and the provincial environmental safety threshold is between 9475080-23144760 tons;The environmental safety threshold was the highest in Baoding and Langfang,and the lowest in Xingtai.(3)In the past 16 years,the carbon emission risk of the construction industry in Hebei Province of China has been in a state of extremely serious risk,and the risk index generally presents an inverted"V"type trend.(4)The carbon emission risk of Hebei city in China presents a spatial pattern of"high in the south and low in the north",which goes through two stages:risk increase period and risk reduction period.

Aged forests could still act as carbon sinks

Old-growth forests are traditionally negligible as carbon sinks, but CAS scientists recently reported that

SWOT Analysis of Forest Carbon Sink Projects in Yunnan Province and Recommendations for Enhancing Competitiveness

Using the SWOT analysis method,this paper analyzed the internal strengths,weaknesses,external opportunities and threats of forest carbon sink projects in Yunnan Province.It found that Yunnan Province has strengths in economic environment and practical experience,weaknesses in social participation,project scale and carbon sink talents,opportunities in international climate environment,domestic policies,etc.,and threats in project crediting period and forest resource protection,etc.In view of these,Yunnan Province can change the participation mode of forest carbon sink projects,adopt appropriate trading methods,get familiar with the relevant rules of forest carbon sink projects,strengthen the publicity and research of forest carbon sink theory,strengthen the management of carbon sink forests and expand forest carbon sink projects to enhance the market competitiveness of the Yunnan forest carbon sink projects.

The Research of Carbon Emission and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation in China

The study of China s carbon emissions and carbon sequestration potential is of great practical significance to the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies and methods of China.Carbon emission is an inevitable outcome of the initial stage of economic development,especially the right of developing countries existence and development.The carbon emission of China has been maintained at a low level for a long time and reached the top of the world in 2005.However,per capita carbon emission was still only 46.28%of the United States in 2016.China s total CO_(2) emissions are expected to reach 17-19 Gt/a by 2030.To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,the main problems are the low technical capacity of emission reduction and the unreasonable structure of energy consumption.Therefore,replacing coal with gas is one of the most effective ways of emission reduction.By 2060,the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation will reach or exceed 759.14 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 2783.5 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 95.39%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reaching 640 t/100 million yuan.The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial vegetation(forest,grassland)will reach or exceed 1380.3 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 5069.3 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 91.07%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reach 1152 t C per 100 million yuan.