Prediction and driving factors of forest fire occurrence in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.

Reconstructing historical forest fire risk in the non-satellite era using the improved forest fire danger index and long short-term memory deep learning-a case study in Sichuan Province,southwestern China

Historical forest fire risk databases are vital for evaluating the effectiveness of past forest management approaches,enhancing forest fire warnings and emergency response capabilities,and accurately budgeting potential carbon emissions resulting from fires.However,due to the unavailability of spatial information technology,such databases are extremely difficult to build reliably and completely in the non-satellite era.This study presented an improved forest fire risk reconstruction framework that integrates a deep learning-based time series prediction model and spatial interpolation to address the challenge in Sichuan Province,southwestern China.First,the forest fire danger index(FFDI)was improved by supplementing slope and aspect information.We compared the performances of three time series models,namely,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),Prophet and long short-term memory(LSTM)in predicting the modified forest fire danger index(MFFDI).The bestperforming model was used to retrace the MFFDI of individual stations from 1941 to 1970.Following this,the Anusplin spatial interpolation method was used to map the distributions of the MFFDI at five-year intervals,which were then subjected to weighted overlay with the distance-to-river layer to generate forest fire risk maps for reconstructing the forest fire danger database.The results revealed LSTM as the most accurate in fitting and predicting the historical MFFDI,with a fitting determination coefficient(R^2)of 0.709,mean square error(MSE)of0.047,and validation R^2 and MSE of 0.508 and 0.11,respectively.Independent validation of the predicted forest fire risk maps indicated that 5 out of 7 historical forest fire events were located in forest fire-prone areas,which is higher than the results determined from the original FFDI(2 out of 7).This proves the effectiveness of the improved MFFDI and indicates a high level of reliability of the historical forest fire risk reconstruction method proposed in this study.

Performance Analysis of Support Vector Machine (SVM) on Challenging Datasets for Forest Fire Detection

This article delves into the analysis of performance and utilization of Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for the critical task of forest fire detection using image datasets. With the increasing threat of forest fires to ecosystems and human settlements, the need for rapid and accurate detection systems is of utmost importance. SVMs, renowned for their strong classification capabilities, exhibit proficiency in recognizing patterns associated with fire within images. By training on labeled data, SVMs acquire the ability to identify distinctive attributes associated with fire, such as flames, smoke, or alterations in the visual characteristics of the forest area. The document thoroughly examines the use of SVMs, covering crucial elements like data preprocessing, feature extraction, and model training. It rigorously evaluates parameters such as accuracy, efficiency, and practical applicability. The knowledge gained from this study aids in the development of efficient forest fire detection systems, enabling prompt responses and improving disaster management. Moreover, the correlation between SVM accuracy and the difficulties presented by high-dimensional datasets is carefully investigated, demonstrated through a revealing case study. The relationship between accuracy scores and the different resolutions used for resizing the training datasets has also been discussed in this article. These comprehensive studies result in a definitive overview of the difficulties faced and the potential sectors requiring further improvement and focus.

Research Progress of Polymer Fire Extinguishing Gel and Its Application in Forest Fire Prevention

The paper summarizes the structure and water-absorbing mechanism,classification,and preparation method of polymer fire extinguishing gel,and prospects for its application in aerial firefighting,forest ground fire extinguishing,opening of firebreaks,and mitigating human casualties in forest fire extinguishing.

A geographical similarity-based sampling method of non-fire point data for spatial prediction of forest fires

Understanding the mechanisms and risks of forest fires by building a spatial prediction model is an important means of controlling forest fires.Non-fire point data are important training data for constructing a model,and their quality significantly impacts the prediction performance of the model.However,non-fire point data obtained using existing sampling methods generally suffer from low representativeness.Therefore,this study proposes a non-fire point data sampling method based on geographical similarity to improve the quality of non-fire point samples.The method is based on the idea that the less similar the geographical environment between a sample point and an already occurred fire point,the greater the confidence in being a non-fire point sample.Yunnan Province,China,with a high frequency of forest fires,was used as the study area.We compared the prediction performance of traditional sampling methods and the proposed method using three commonly used forest fire risk prediction models:logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),and random forest(RF).The results show that the modeling and prediction accuracies of the forest fire prediction models established based on the proposed sampling method are significantly improved compared with those of the traditional sampling method.Specifically,in 2010,the modeling and prediction accuracies improved by 19.1%and 32.8%,respectively,and in 2020,they improved by 13.1%and 24.3%,respectively.Therefore,we believe that collecting non-fire point samples based on the principle of geographical similarity is an effective way to improve the quality of forest fire samples,and thus enhance the prediction of forest fire risk.

Fusion-Based Deep Learning Model for Automated Forest Fire Detection

Earth resource and environmental monitoring are essential areas that can be used to investigate the environmental conditions and natural resources supporting sustainable policy development,regulatory measures,and their implementation elevating the environment.Large-scale forest fire is considered a major harmful hazard that affects climate change and life over the globe.Therefore,the early identification of forest fires using automated tools is essential to avoid the spread of fire to a large extent.Therefore,this paper focuses on the design of automated forest fire detection using a fusion-based deep learning(AFFD-FDL)model for environmental monitoring.The AFFDFDL technique involves the design of an entropy-based fusion model for feature extraction.The combination of the handcrafted features using histogram of gradients(HOG)with deep features using SqueezeNet and Inception v3 models.Besides,an optimal extreme learning machine(ELM)based classifier is used to identify the existence of fire or not.In order to properly tune the parameters of the ELM model,the oppositional glowworm swarm optimization(OGSO)algorithm is employed and thereby improves the forest fire detection performance.A wide range of simulation analyses takes place on a benchmark dataset and the results are inspected under several aspects.The experimental results highlighted the betterment of the AFFD-FDL technique over the recent state of art techniques.

Prediction of forest fire occurrence in China under climate change scenarios

Climate change has an impact on forest fire patterns.In the context of global warming,it is important to study the possible effects of climate change on forest fires,carbon emission reductions,carbon sink effects,forest fire management,and sustainable development of forest ecosystems.This study is based on MODIS active fire data from 2001-2020 and the influence of climate,topography,vegetation,and social factors were integrated.Temperature and precipitation information from different scenarios of the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model were used as future climate data.Under climate change scenarios of a sustainable low development path and a high conventional development path,the extreme gradient boosting model predicted the spatial distribution of forest fire occurrence in China in the 2030s(2021-2040),2050s(2041-2060),2070s(2061-2080),and2090s(2081-2100).Probability maps were generated and tested using ROC curves.The results show that:(1)the area under the ROC curve of training data(70%)and validation data(30%)were 0.8465 and 0.8171,respectively,indicating that the model can reasonably predict the occurrence of forest fire in the study area;(2)temperature,elevation,and precipitation were strongly correlated with fire occurrence,while land type,slope,distance from settlements and roads,and slope direction were less strongly correlated;and,(3)based on future climate change scenarios,the probability of forest fire occurrence will tend to shift from the south to the center of the country.Compared with the current climate(2001-2020),the occurrence of forest fires in 2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100 will increase significantly in Henan Province(Luoyang,Nanyang,S anmenxia),Shaanxi Province(Shangluo,Ankang),Sichuan Province(Mianyang,Guangyuan,Ganzi),Tibet Autonomous Region(Shannan,Linzhi,Changdu),Liaoning Province(Liaoyang,Fushun,Dandong).

A Survey of the Machine Learning Models for Forest Fire Prediction and Detection

Forest fires are a significant threat to the environment, causing ecological damage, economic losses, and posing a threat to human life. Hence, timely detection and prevention of forest fires are critical to minimizing their impact. In this paper, we review the current state-of-the-art methods in forest fire detection and prevention using predictions based on weather conditions and predictions based on forest fire history. In particular, we discuss different Machine Learning (ML) models that have been used for forest fire detection. Further, we present the challenges faced when implementing the ML-based forest fire detection and prevention systems, such as data availability, model prediction errors and processing speed. Finally, we discuss how recent advances in Deep Learning (DL) can be utilized to improve the performance of current fire detection systems.

Preliminary Study on Forest Fire Prevention and Extinguishing in Townships in the Southern Mountainous Areas of Zhejiang Province:A Case Study of Lishui

Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Assisted Forest Fire Detection Using Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Disasters may occur at any time and place without little to no presage in advance.With the development of surveillance and forecasting systems,it is now possible to forebode the most life-threatening and formidable disasters.However,forestfires are among the ones that are still hard to anticipate beforehand,and the technologies to detect and plot their possible courses are still in development.Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)image-basedfire detection systems can be a viable solution to this problem.However,these automatic systems use advanced deep learning and image processing algorithms at their core and can be tuned to provide accurate outcomes.Therefore,this article proposed a forestfire detection method based on a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)architecture using a newfire detection dataset.Notably,our method also uses separable convolution layers(requiring less computational resources)for immediatefire detection and typical convolution layers.Thus,making it suitable for real-time applications.Consequently,after being trained on the dataset,experimental results show that the method can identify forestfires within images with a 97.63%accuracy,98.00%F1 Score,and 80%Kappa.Hence,if deployed in practical circumstances,this identification method can be used as an assistive tool to detectfire outbreaks,allowing the authorities to respond quickly and deploy preventive measures to minimize damage.

Intelligent Deep Learning Enabled Wild Forest Fire Detection System

The latest advancements in computer vision and deep learning(DL)techniques pave the way to design novel tools for the detection and monitoring of forestfires.In this view,this paper presents an intelligent wild forestfire detec-tion and alarming system using deep learning(IWFFDA-DL)model.The pro-posed IWFFDA-DL technique aims to identify forestfires at earlier stages through integrated sensors.The proposed IWFFDA-DL system includes an Inte-grated sensor system(ISS)combining an array of sensors that acts as the major input source that helps to forecast thefire.Then,the attention based convolution neural network with bidirectional long short term memory(ACNN-BLSTM)model is applied to examine and identify the existence of danger.For hyperpara-meter tuning of the ACNN-BLSTM model,the bacterial foraging optimization(BFO)algorithm is employed and thereby enhances the detection performance.Finally,when thefire is detected,the Global System for Mobiles(GSM)modem transmits messages to the authorities to take required actions.An extensive set of simulations were performed and the results are investigated interms of several aspects.The obtained results highlight the betterment of the IWFFDA-DL techni-que interms of various measures.

Study on the Relationship among Forest Fire,Temperature and Precipitation and Its Spatial-temporal Variability in China

[Objective] The aim was to discuss the relationship between forest fire and meterological elements （precipitation and temprature） in each region of China.[Method] Firstly,the average precipitation and temperature in forest area of each province in fire season were obtained based on meterological data,forest distribution data,seasonal and monthly data of forest fire in China.Secondly,the relationship among forest fire area,precipitation and temperature was discussed through temporal and correlation analysis.[Result] The changes of precipitation and temperature with time could reflect the annual variation of fire area well.Forest fire area went up with the decrease of precipitation and increase of temprature,and visa versa.Meanwhile,there existed diffirences in the relationship in various regions over time.Correlation analyses revealed that there was positive correlation between forest fire area and temperature,especailly Northwest China （R=0.367,P〈0.01）,Southwest China （R=0.327,P〈0.05）,South China （R=0.33,P〈0.05）,East China （R=0.516,P〈0.01） and Xinjiang （R=0.447,P〈0.05） with obviously positive correlation.At the same time,the correlation between forest fire area and precipitation was significantly positive in Northwest China （R=0.482,P〈0.01）,while it was significantly negaive in South China （R=-0.323,P=0.03）,but there was no significant correlation in other regions.[Conclusion] Relationships between forest fire and meteorological elements （precipitation and temprature） revealed in the study would be useful for fire provention and early warning in China.

Forest fire prevention management legal regime between China and the United States

Precautions against forest fires,a significant element in the prevention and reduction of natural disasters in China,are very important to the development of public emergency systems,as well as to the safety of forest resources,ecology,people’s lives and properties.The USA has extensive experience in forest fire management,which has been widely accepted and used by other countries.The precautions taken by China and the USA to prevent forest fires have been compared in a great number of previous studies.However,most of the studies have focused merely on fire extinguishing technologies and management methods;they have lacked a comparative study on the legal aspects of management.This paper will consider five distinct aspects related to forest fire management between China and the USA and will analyze the similarities and differences as well as study other features to facilitate work related to precautions against forest fires in China.

Numerical Studies of Wind Speed Fields in Front of Forest Fire Fronts

In the study a fire and fire environment model is set up and by using PHEONICS software 3 cases of surface fires are studied. The results fit the experimental studies well generally. The simulation reveals that (1) The wind speed fields in front of fire front generally can be divided into 3 zones and there is always an eddy immediately at the corner between just in front of the fire and the ground. (2) The shape and dimension of the division of the 3 zones is mainly decided by slope angle and ambient wind speed given fire line intensity. (3) There exits an upwind zone in front of fire front. Ambient wind speeds have little effect on the magnitude of the upwind speed when slope angle is 0. But when the slope angle is negative, the upwind is apparently stronger.

Forest fire risk indices and zoning of hazardous areas in Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil

This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator(KDE)in the municipality of Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil.The logarithmic Telicyn index,Monte Alegre formula(MAF)and enhanced Monte Alegre formula(MAF+)were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016.Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology(INMET)and the Institute for Space Research(INPE),respectively.Two performance measures were calculated:Heidke skill score(SS)and success rate(SR).The MAF+index was the most accurate,with values of SS and SR of 0.611%and 62.8%,respectively.The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high(63 km^2)and very high(47 km^2)risk of fires in the municipality.Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.

Forest fire risk zone mapping from satellite images and GIS for Baihe Forestry Bureau, Jilin, China

A forest fire can be a real ecological disaster regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human activities, it is possible to map forest fire risk zones to minimize the frequency of fires, avert damage, etc. A method integrating remote sensing and GIS was developed and applied to forest fire risk zone mapping for Baihe forestry bureau in this paper. Satellite images were interpreted and classified to generate vegetation type layer and land use layers （roads, settlements and farmlands）. Topographic layers （slope, aspect and altitude） were derived from DEM. The thematic and topographic information was analyzed by using ARC/INFO GIS software. Forest fire risk zones were delineated by assigning subjective weights to the classes of all the layers （vegetation type, slope, aspect, altitude and distance from r3ads, farmlands and settlements） according to their sensitivity to fire or their fire-inducing capability. Five categories of forest fire risk ranging from very high to very low were derived automatically. The mapping result of the study area was found to be in strong agreement with actual fire-affected sites.

Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.

Forest fire risk assessment in parts of Northeast India using geospatial tools

Forest fire is a major cause of changes in forest structure and function. Among various floristic regions, the northeast region of India suffers maximum from the fires due to age-old practice of shifting cultivation and spread of fires from jhum fields. For proper mitigation and management, an early warning of forest fires through risk modeling is required. The study results demonstrate the potential use of remote sensing and Geographic Information System （GIS） in identifying forest fire prone areas in Manipur, southeastern part of Northeast India. Land use land cover （LULC）, vegetation type, Digital elevation model （DEM）, slope, aspect and proximity to roads and settlements, factors that influence the behavior of fire, were used to model the forest fire risk zones. Each class of the layers was given weight according to their fire inducing capability and their sensitivity to fire. Weighted sum modeling and ISODATA clustering was used to classify the fire zones. TO validate the results, Along Track Scanning Radiometer （ATSR）, the historical fire hotspots data was used to check the occurrence points and modeled forest fire locations. The forest risk zone map has 55-63% of agreement with ATSR dataset.

Spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire frequency and forest area burnt in Jilin Province, Northeast China

Forest fires caused by natural forces or human activities are one of the major natural risks in Northeast China.The incidence and spatial distribution of these fires vary over time and across the forested areas in Jilin Province,Northeast China.In this study,the incidence and distribution of 6519 forest fires from 1969 to 2013 in the province were investigated.The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of the burnt forest area and the fire frequency varied significantly by month,year,and region.Fire occurrence displayed notable temporal patterns in the years after forest fire prevention measures were strictly implemented by the provincial government.Generally,forest fires in Jilin occurred in months when stubble and straw were burned and human activities were intense during traditional Chinese festivals.Baishan city,Jilin city,and Yanbian were defined as fire-prone regions for their high fire frequency.Yanbian had the highest frequency,and the fires tended to be large with the highest burned area per fire.Yanbian should thus be listed as the key target area by the fire management agency in Jilin Province for better fire prevention.

Spatio-temporal analysis of forest fire events in the Margalla Hills,Islamabad,Pakistan using socio-economic and environmental variable data with machine learning methods

Most forest fires in the Margalla Hills are related to human activities and socioeconomic factors are essential to assess their likelihood of occurrence.This study considers both environmental(altitude,precipitation,forest type,terrain and humidity index)and socioeconomic(population density,distance from roads and urban areas)factors to analyze how human behavior affects the risk of forest fires.Maximum entropy(Maxent)modelling and random forest(RF)machine learning methods were used to predict the probability and spatial diffusion patterns of forest fires in the Margalla Hills.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)were used to compare the models.We studied the fire history from 1990 to 2019 to establish the relationship between the probability of forest fire and environmental and socioeconomic changes.Using Maxent,the AUC fire probability values for the 1999 s,2009 s,and 2019 s were 0.532,0.569,and 0.518,respectively;using RF,they were 0.782,0.825,and 0.789,respectively.Fires were mainly distributed in urban areas and their probability of occurrence was related to accessibility and human behaviour/activity.AUC principles for validation were greater in the random forest models than in the Maxent models.Our results can be used to establish preventive measures to reduce risks of forest fires by considering socio-economic and environmental conditions.