Corporate managers,price noise and the investment factor

This study investigates the impact of flows between bond and equity funds on investment factors over the period 1984–2015.It determines contemporaneous mispricing effects and a statistical reversal relation between these flows and both legs of the investment factor.The statistical reversal relationship between previous flows and the investment factor is economically significant.A one-standard-deviation shock to flows causes a 0.29%decrease in investment factor returns,which are reversed within 5 months.A trading strategy based on signals from past flows and the investment factor outperforms the market by 0.68%in the months following positive flows and produces significant alphas after accounting for well-known equity risk factors.The findings are interpreted as evidence in favor of a behavioral explanation,in which sentiment influences actual managerial decisions.When retail investors and managers are swept up in market euphoria,retail investors shift their holdings from bond to equity mutual funds,and high-investment firms invest more aggressively.Market-level euphoria has a different impact on high-and low-investment firms,and thus the investment factor can be influenced.Hence,the mispricing occurs during these periods,and the reversal relationship is especially pronounced for a high-investment portfolio versus a low-investment portfolio.As a result,during the months following periods of positive flows,the investment factor outperforms the market factor.Interestingly,this study’s measure of flows,which serves as a proxy for market-level euphoria,outperforms other measures of investor sentiment.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Exploring high saving rates in China： an analysis based on the 1992-2003 China flow of funds accounts

On the basis of the 1992-2003 flow of funds accounts for China released by the National Statistics Bureau, this article conducts a comparative analysis of the saving rates of the household, corporate and government sectors from the perspective of income distribution and saving propensity. We found that although the household sector had the highest saving rate, it had actually trended downwards since 1992, as a result of falling labor compensation, property income and income from redistribution. Over this period, the corporate saving rate rose slowly, mainly because of a prolonged period of relatively low wage and interest costs rather than increased profitability. The government saving rate, which remained low in the last century, rose dramatically after 2000. The main reasons for this were the ever- increasing share of government disposable revenue in national income distribution via primary distribution and redistribution and the sector＇s increased saving propensity. Our policy recommendations suggest that in order to implement an economic development strategy centered on boosting domestic consumption, China should shift its economic focus to improving the income distribution structure and increasing household income. For this purpose, fiscal policies should be oriented toward increased public financing, public expenditure and social security expenditure and toward higher labor compensation based on increased productivity in the corporate sector. These aims should be taken as the objectives of national c regulation.

Understanding High Saving Rate in China

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the Chinese saving rate based on the flow offunds data. It finds that the most widely adopted view of precautionary saving, which is regarded as the top reason for maintaining a high saving rate in China, is misleading because this conclusion is drawn from the household survey data. In fact, the household saving rate has declined dramatically since the mid-1990s, as is observed from the flow of funds framework. The high national saving rate is attributed to the increasing shares of both government and corporation disposable incomes. Insufficient consumption demand is caused by the persistent decrease in percentage share of household to national disposable income. Governmentdirected income redistribution urgently needs to be improved to accelerate consumption, which in turn would make the Chinese economy less investment-led and help to reduce the current account surplus.

Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?

China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percentof GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018.The new pattern offered fresh evidencefor our understanding of China's current account dynamics.In this paper,we used flowof funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces.Specifically,by employing indexdecomposition analysis,we decomposed the current account from the perspective ofsavings and investment into three sectors:the household,corporate,and governmentsectors.We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven bycyclical factors,i.e.weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the governmentstimulus plan.However,such cyclical factors quickly subsided,and the subsequentcurrent account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors,i.e.household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a moreexpansionary fiscal policy.There are three possible explanations for the structuralmovement:reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio,lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown,and a twin deficit due to thegovernment's more relaxed fiscal stance.The new facts,however,were not consistent withother current account theories focusing on long-term aspects of the saving-investmentaccount puzzle,especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Who is the predator, who the prey？ --an analysis of changes in the state of China＇s national income distribution

This paper investigates how national income distribution among the corporate, government, and household sectors has changed from 1992 to 2005 using the Flow of Funds Accounts adjusted after the National Economic Census 2004. We analyze the changes in institutional distribution of national income from the primary and secondary distribution of national income, with a focus on explaining the fall in the household sector＇s share of the national income pie since 1996. To analyze the primary distribution of national income among institutional sectors, we formulate the share of each sector in primary national income as the weighted average of the product of factor income share using each sector＇s proportion of the different types of factor income as weights. With this formula, we adjust factor income shares in the Flow of Funds Account, re-compute the distribution of disposable income by institutional sector from 1993 to 2005, and extrapolate the distribution to 2006 and 2007. Our findings are： the share of the household sector in national disposable income reached its peak in 1996, and declined by over twelve percentage points between 1996 and 2005, of which 10.71 and 2.01 percentage points were due to primary distribution and secondary distribution respectively. In contrast, the share of the corporate and government sectors in primary distribution increased by 7.49 and 3.21 percentage points respectively. In secondary distribution, the share of the government sector further increased by 3.17 percentage points, at the expense of the other two sectors. We also find that the decline in the share of labor income and property income in factor income distribution are the two main sources for the decline in the household share of primary distribution. In the period 2005-2007, the household share of national income fell further by over three percentage points, mostly resulting from the increase in the share of net production tax.