This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the le...This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the leakages can be initiated.These are:gas and oil wells,pipelines,key facilities and third party damage.Conventional FTA requires precise values for the probability of failure of the basic events.However,since the failure data are uncertain,a fuzzy approach to these data is taken which leads to the so-called fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA),a method that employs expert elicitation and fuzzy set theories to calculate the failure probabilities of the intermediate events and the top event through identification of the minimal cut sets of the fault tree.A number of importance measures for minimal cut sets and the basic events have been obtained which helps to identify the nature of dependence of the top event on the basic events and thereby can identify the weakest links that may cause leakage in the subsea production system.展开更多
Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a ...Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.展开更多
Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy impor...Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy importance analysis of the basic event is proposed as well. A practical example is given. This method is a new way to solve the obscure problems of fault tree analysis and has great value in engineering practice.展开更多
文摘This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the leakages can be initiated.These are:gas and oil wells,pipelines,key facilities and third party damage.Conventional FTA requires precise values for the probability of failure of the basic events.However,since the failure data are uncertain,a fuzzy approach to these data is taken which leads to the so-called fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA),a method that employs expert elicitation and fuzzy set theories to calculate the failure probabilities of the intermediate events and the top event through identification of the minimal cut sets of the fault tree.A number of importance measures for minimal cut sets and the basic events have been obtained which helps to identify the nature of dependence of the top event on the basic events and thereby can identify the weakest links that may cause leakage in the subsea production system.
基金financially supported by the National Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Innovation Special Project-Engineering Demonstration Application of Subsea Production System,Topic 4:Research on Subsea X-Tree and Wellhead Offshore Testing Technology(Grant No.MC-201901-S01-04)the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(Major Innovation Project)(Grant Nos.2022CXGC020405,2023CXGC010415)。
文摘Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.
文摘Based on the fuzzy set theory and the expand principle, using fuzzy number as the boundary condition of fault tree analysis, a new method of analyzing fuzzy fault probability of the top event is developed. Fuzzy importance analysis of the basic event is proposed as well. A practical example is given. This method is a new way to solve the obscure problems of fault tree analysis and has great value in engineering practice.
