A Novel Method for Aging Prediction of Railway Catenary Based on Improved Kalman Filter

The aging prediction of railway catenary is of profound significance for ensuring the regular operation of electrified trains.However,in real-world scenarios,accurate predictions are challenging due to various interferences.This paper addresses this challenge by proposing a novel method for predicting the aging of railway catenary based on an improved Kalman filter(KF).The proposed method focuses on modifying the priori state estimate covariance and measurement error covariance of the KF to enhance accuracy in complex environments.By comparing the optimal displacement value with the theoretically calculated value based on the thermal expansion effect of metals,it becomes possible to ascertain the aging status of the catenary.To improve prediction accuracy,a railway catenary aging prediction model is constructed by integrating the Takagi-Sugeno(T-S)fuzzy neural network(FNN)and KF.In this model,an adaptive training method is introduced,allowing the FNN to use fewer fuzzy rules.The inputs of the model include time,temperature,and historical displacement,while the output is the predicted displacement.Furthermore,the KF is enhanced by modifying its prior state estimate covariance and measurement error covariance.These modifications contribute to more accurate predictions.Lastly,a low-power experimental platform based on FPGA is implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.The test results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the compared method,showcasing its superior performance.

Real-Time Prediction of Urban Traffic Problems Based on Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Mobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETS)

Traffic in today’s cities is a serious problem that increases travel times,negatively affects the environment,and drains financial resources.This study presents an Artificial Intelligence(AI)augmentedMobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETs)based real-time prediction paradigm for urban traffic challenges.MANETs are wireless networks that are based on mobile devices and may self-organize.The distributed nature of MANETs and the power of AI approaches are leveraged in this framework to provide reliable and timely traffic congestion forecasts.This study suggests a unique Chaotic Spatial Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Network(CSFPNN)technique to assess real-time data acquired from various sources within theMANETs.The framework uses the proposed approach to learn from the data and create predictionmodels to detect possible traffic problems and their severity in real time.Real-time traffic prediction allows for proactive actions like resource allocation,dynamic route advice,and traffic signal optimization to reduce congestion.The framework supports effective decision-making,decreases travel time,lowers fuel use,and enhances overall urban mobility by giving timely information to pedestrians,drivers,and urban planners.Extensive simulations and real-world datasets are used to test the proposed framework’s prediction accuracy,responsiveness,and scalability.Experimental results show that the suggested framework successfully anticipates urban traffic issues in real-time,enables proactive traffic management,and aids in creating smarter,more sustainable cities.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

A Multimodel Transfer-Learning-Based Car Price Prediction Model with an Automatic Fuzzy Logic Parameter Optimizer

Cars are regarded as an indispensable means of transportation in Taiwan.Several studies have indicated that the automotive industry has witnessed remarkable advances and that the market of used cars has rapidly expanded.In this study,a price prediction system for used BMW cars was developed.Nine parameters of used cars,including their model,registration year,and transmission style,were analyzed.The data obtained were then divided into three subsets.The first subset was used to compare the results of each algorithm.The predicted values produced by the two algorithms with the most satisfactory results were used as the input of a fully connected neural network.The second subset was used with an optimization algorithm to modify the number of hidden layers in a fully connected neural network and modify the low,medium,and high parameters of the membership function(MF)to achieve model optimization.Finally,the third subset was used for the validation set during the prediction process.These three subsets were divided using k-fold cross-validation to avoid overfitting and selection bias.In conclusion,in this study,a model combining two optimal algorithms(i.e.,random forest and k-nearest neighbors)with several optimization algorithms(i.e.,gray wolf optimizer,multilayer perceptron,and MF)was successfully established.The prediction results obtained indicated a mean square error of 0.0978,a root-mean-square error of 0.3128,a mean absolute error of 0.1903,and a coefficient of determination of 0.9249.

GHM-FKNN:a generalized Heronian mean based fuzzy k-nearest neighbor classifier for the stock trend prediction

Stock trend prediction is a challenging problem because it involves many variables.Aiming at the problem that some existing machine learning techniques, such as random forest(RF), probabilistic random forest(PRF), k-nearest neighbor(KNN), and fuzzy KNN(FKNN), have difficulty in accurately predicting the stock trend(uptrend or downtrend) for a given date, a generalized Heronian mean(GHM) based FKNN predictor named GHM-FKNN was proposed.GHM-FKNN combines GHM aggregation function with the ideas of the classical FKNN approach.After evaluation, the comparison results elucidated that GHM-FKNN outperformed the other best existing methods RF, PRF, KNN and FKNN on independent test datasets corresponding to three stocks, namely AAPL, AMZN and NFLX.Compared with RF, PRF, KNN and FKNN, GHM-FKNN achieved the best performance with accuracy of 62.37% for AAPL, 58.25% for AMZN, and 64.10% for NFLX.

Long-term Traffic Volume Prediction Based on K-means Gaussian Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets

This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this paper to get 5 minutes traffic volume variation as input data for the Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets which can reflect the distribution of historical traffic volume in one statistical period. Moreover, the cluster with the largest collection of data obtained by K-means clustering method is calculated to get the key parameters of type-2 fuzzy sets, mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian membership function.Using the range of data as the input of Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets leads to the range of traffic volume forecasting output with the ability of describing the possible range of the traffic volume as well as the traffic volume prediction data with high accuracy. The simulation results show that the average relative error is reduced to 8% based on the combined K-means Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets forecasting method. The fluctuation range in terms of an upper and a lower forecasting traffic volume completely envelopes the actual traffic volume and reproduces the fluctuation range of traffic flow.

A Short-Term Climate Prediction Model Based on a Modular Fuzzy Neural Network

In terms of the modular fuzzy neural network (MFNN) combining fuzzy c-mean (FCM) cluster and single-layer neural network, a short-term climate prediction model is developed. It is found from modeling results that the MFNN model for short-term climate prediction has advantages of simple structure, no hidden layer and stable network parameters because of the assembling of sound functions of the self-adaptive learning, association and fuzzy information processing of fuzzy mathematics and neural network methods. The case computational results of Guangxi flood season (JJA) rainfall show that the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean relative error (MRE) of the prediction during 1998-2002 are 68.8 mm and 9.78%, and in comparison with the regression method, under the conditions of the same predictors and period they are 97.8 mm and 12.28% respectively. Furthermore, it is also found from the stability analysis of the modular model that the change of the prediction results of independent samples with training times in the stably convergent interval of the model is less than 1.3 mm. The obvious oscillation phenomenon of prediction results with training times, such as in the common back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model, does not occur, indicating a better practical application potential of the MFNN model.

A precise tidal prediction mechanism based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system model

An efficient and accurate prediction of a precise tidal level in estuaries and coastal areas is indispensable for the management and decision-making of human activity in the field wok of marine engineering. The variation of the tidal level is a time-varying process. The time-varying factors including interference from the external environment that cause the change of tides are fairly complicated. Furthermore, tidal variations are affected not only by periodic movement of celestial bodies but also by time-varying interference from the external environment. Consequently, for the efficient and precise tidal level prediction, a neuro-fuzzy hybrid technology based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system（ANFIS）model is utilized to construct a precise tidal level prediction system, which takes both advantages of the harmonic analysis method and the ANFIS network. The proposed prediction model is composed of two modules： the astronomical tide module caused by celestial bodies’ movement and the non-astronomical tide module caused by various meteorological and other environmental factors. To generate a fuzzy inference system（FIS） structure,three approaches which include grid partition（GP）, fuzzy c-means（FCM） and sub-clustering（SC） are used in the ANFIS network constructing process. Furthermore, to obtain the optimal ANFIS based prediction model, large numbers of simulation experiments are implemented for each FIS generating approach. In this tidal prediction study, the optimal ANFIS model is used to predict the non-astronomical tide module, while the conventional harmonic analysis model is used to predict the astronomical tide module. The final prediction result is performed by combining the estimation outputs of the harmonious analysis model and the optimal ANFIS model. To demonstrate the applicability and capability of the proposed novel prediction model, measured tidal level samples of Fort Pulaski tidal station are selected as the testing database. Simulation and experimental results confirm that the proposed prediction approach can achieve precise predictions for the tidal level with high accuracy, satisfactory convergence and stability.

Fuzzy Prediction of Silicon Content for BF Hot Metal

Some key operation variables influencing hot metal silicon content were selected, and time lag of each of them was obtained. A standardized fuzzy system model was developed to approach the random nonlinear dynamic system of the change of silicon content, forecast the change of silicon content and calculate silicon content. The prediction of hot metal silicon content is very successful with the data collected online from BF No. 1 at Laiwu Iron and Steel Group Co.

Fuzzy Shape Control Based on El man Dynamic Recursion Network Prediction Model

In the strip rolling process, shape control system possesses the characteristics of nonlinearity, strong coupling, time delay and time variation. Based on self adapting Elman dynamic recursion network prediction model, the fuzzy control method was used to control the shape on four-high cold mill. The simulation results showed that the system can be applied to real time on line control of the shape.

Chaotic time series prediction using fuzzy sigmoid kernel-based support vector machines

Support vector machines （SVM） have been widely used in chaotic time series predictions in recent years. In order to enhance the prediction efficiency of this method and implement it in hardware, the sigmoid kernel in SVM is drawn in a more natural way by using the fuzzy logic method proposed in this paper. This method provides easy hardware implementation and straightforward interpretability. Experiments on two typical chaotic time series predictions have been carried out and the obtained results show that the average CPU time can be reduced significantly at the cost of a small decrease in prediction accuracy, which is favourable for the hardware implementation for chaotic time series prediction.

Data and Ensemble Machine Learning Fusion Based Intelligent Software Defect Prediction System

The software engineering field has long focused on creating high-quality software despite limited resources.Detecting defects before the testing stage of software development can enable quality assurance engineers to con-centrate on problematic modules rather than all the modules.This approach can enhance the quality of the final product while lowering development costs.Identifying defective modules early on can allow for early corrections and ensure the timely delivery of a high-quality product that satisfies customers and instills greater confidence in the development team.This process is known as software defect prediction,and it can improve end-product quality while reducing the cost of testing and maintenance.This study proposes a software defect prediction system that utilizes data fusion,feature selection,and ensemble machine learning fusion techniques.A novel filter-based metric selection technique is proposed in the framework to select the optimum features.A three-step nested approach is presented for predicting defective modules to achieve high accuracy.In the first step,three supervised machine learning techniques,including Decision Tree,Support Vector Machines,and Naïve Bayes,are used to detect faulty modules.The second step involves integrating the predictive accuracy of these classification techniques through three ensemble machine-learning methods:Bagging,Voting,and Stacking.Finally,in the third step,a fuzzy logic technique is employed to integrate the predictive accuracy of the ensemble machine learning techniques.The experiments are performed on a fused software defect dataset to ensure that the developed fused ensemble model can perform effectively on diverse datasets.Five NASA datasets are integrated to create the fused dataset:MW1,PC1,PC3,PC4,and CM1.According to the results,the proposed system exhibited superior performance to other advanced techniques for predicting software defects,achieving a remarkable accuracy rate of 92.08%.

Functional-type Single-input-rule-modules Connected Neural Fuzzy System for Wind Speed Prediction

Wind is one kind of clean and free renewable energy sources. Wind speed plays a pivotal role in the wind power output. However, due to the random and unstable nature of the wind, accurate prediction of wind speed is a particularly challenging task. This paper presents a novel neural fuzzy method for the hourly wind speed prediction. Firstly, a neural structure is proposed for the functional-type single-input-rule-modules(FSIRMs) connected fuzzy inference system(FIS) to combine the merits of both the FSIRMs connected FIS and the neural network. Then, in order to achieve both the smallest training errors and the smallest parameters, a least square method based parameter learning algorithm is presented for the proposed FSIRMs connected neural fuzzy system(FSIRMNFS). Further,the proposed FSIRMNFS and its parameter learning algorithm are applied to the hourly wind speed prediction. Experiments and comparisons are also made to show the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach. Experimental results verified that our study has presented an effective approach for the hourly wind speed prediction. The proposed approach can also be used for the prediction of wind direction, wind power and some other prediction applications in the research field of renewable energy.

Breakdown Voltage Prediction by Utilizing the Behavior of Natural Ester for Transformer Applications

This research investigates the dielectric performance of Natural Ester(NE)using the Partial Differential Equation(PDE)tool and analyzes dielectric performance using fuzzy logic.NE nowadays is found to replace Mineral Oil(MO)due to its extensive dielectric properties.Here,the heat-tolerant Natural Esters Olive oil(NE1),Sunflower oil(NE2),and Ricebran oil(NE3)are subjected to High Voltage AC(HVAC)under different electrodes configurations.The break-down voltage and leakage current of NE1,NE2,and NE3 under Point-Point(P-P),Sphere-Sphere(S-S),Plane-Plane(PL-PL),and Rod-Rod(R-R)are measured,and survival probability is presented.The electricfield distribution is analyzed using the Partial Differential Equation(PDE)tool.NE shows better HVAC with stand capacity under all the electrodes configuration,especially in the S-S shape geometry.The exponential function is developed for the oils under different elec-trode geometry;NE shows a higher survival probability.Likewise,the most influ-ential dielectric properties such as breakdown voltage,kinematic viscosity,and water content are used to develop a Mamdani-based control system model that combines two variables to produce the surface model.The surface model indi-cates that the NE subjected for investigation is less susceptible to moisture effect and higher kinematic viscosity.Based on the surface models of PDE and fuzzy,it is concluded that NE possesses a high survival rate since its breakdown voltage does not react to changes in water content.Hence the application of NE in the transformer application is highly safe and possesses extended life.

Grey Prediction Fuzzy Control of the Target Tracking System in a Robot Weapon

Grey modeling can be used to predict the behavioral development of a system and find out the lead control values of the system. By using fuzzy inference, PID parameters can be adjusted on line by the fuzzy controller with PID parameters self-tuning. According to the characteristics of target tracking system in a robot weapon, grey prediction theory and fuzzy PID control ideas are combined. A grey prediction mathematical model is constructed and a fuzzy PID controller with grey prediction was developed. Simulation result shows fuzzy PID control algorithm with grey prediction is an efficient method that can improve the control equality and robustness of traditional PID control and fuzzy PID control, and has much better performance for target tracking.

A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Predict Tensile Strength in TIG Mild Steel Welds

Welding defects influence the desired properties of welded joints giving fabrication experts a common problem of not being able to produce weld structures with optimal strength and quality. In this study, the fuzzy logic system was employed to predict welding tensile strength. 30 sets of welding experiments were conducted and tensile strength data was collected which were converted from crisp variables into fuzzy sets. The result showed that the fuzzy logic tool is a highly effective tool for predicting tensile strength present in TIG mild steel weld having a coefficient of determination value of 99%.

A Hybrid Meta-Classifier of Fuzzy Clustering and Logistic Regression for Diabetes Prediction

Diabetes is a chronic health condition that impairs the body’s ability to convert food to energy,recognized by persistently high levels of blood glucose.Undiagnosed diabetes can cause many complications,including retinopathy,nephropathy,neuropathy,and other vascular disorders.Machine learning methods can be very useful for disease identification,prediction,and treatment.This paper proposes a new ensemble learning approach for type 2 diabetes prediction based on a hybrid meta-classifier of fuzzy clustering and logistic regression.The proposed approach consists of two levels.First,a baselearner comprising six machine learning algorithms is utilized for predicting diabetes.Second,a hybrid meta-learner that combines fuzzy clustering and logistic regression is employed to appropriately integrate predictions from the base-learners and provide an accurate prediction of diabetes.The hybrid metalearner employs the Fuzzy C-means Clustering(FCM)algorithm to generate highly significant clusters of predictions from base-learners.The predictions of base-learners and their fuzzy clusters are then employed as inputs to the Logistic Regression(LR)algorithm,which generates the final diabetes prediction result.Experiments were conducted using two publicly available datasets,the Pima Indians Diabetes Database(PIDD)and the Schorling Diabetes Dataset(SDD)to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method for predicting diabetes.When compared with other models,the proposed approach outperformed them and obtained the highest prediction accuracies of 99.00%and 95.20%using the PIDD and SDD datasets,respectively.

Spatial Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution for Soils in Peri-Urban Beijing, China Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

Fuzzy classification combined with spatial prediction was used to assess the state of soil pollution in the peri-urban Beijing area. Total concentrations of As, Cr, Cd, Hg, and Pb were determined in 220 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) collected using a grid design in a study area of 2600 km2. Heavy metal concentrations were grouped into three classes according to the optimum number of classes and fuzziness exponent using the fuzzy c-mean (FCM) algorithm. Membership values were interpolated using ordinary kriging. The polluted soils of the study area induced by the measured heavy metals were concentrated in the northwest corner and eastern part, especially the southeastern part close to the urban zone, whereas the soils free of pollution were mainly distributed in the southwestern part. The soils with potential risk of heavy metal pollution were located in isolated spots mainly in the northern part and southeastern corner of the study region. The FCM algorithm combined with geostatistical techniques, as compared to conventional single geostatistical kriging methods, could produce a prediction with a quantitative uncertainty evaluation and higher reliability. Successful prediction of soil pollution achieved with FCM algorithm in this study indicated that fuzzy set theory had great potential for use in other areas of soil science.

High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning

近年来,高速铁路各项技术不断发展,列车运行速度从300 km·h^(–1)提高到400 km·h^(–1)。本文介绍了由韩国研究者开发和论证的技术,即400 km·h^(–1)级集电性能评估方法。此外,本文还详细解释了基于视频图像的监测技术,其不需要直接接触供电系统的任何部件,这项技术被应用于检测以时速400 km运行的高铁上架空接触网组件的稳定性。与常规使用激光传感器或者线相机(line camera)来监控架空接触网的系统不同,开发的新型系统通过视频数据来测量其处于活动状态的参数。根据在商业线路上实地测量的结果,这种系统能有效地测量架空接触网的各项参数。

Fuzzy-grey Prediction of Cutting Force Uncertainty in Turning

To predict the extent of turning force uncertainty quantitatively,this paper proposes a fuzzy-grey prediction procedure based on the symmetric fuzzy number and linear planning theory and grey set theory.To ve rify the developed procedure,a measuring system of turning force is schematized to acquire the evaluating data.The comparison between the prediction results a nd measured data demonstrates that the prediction is an extent of variable force rather than a certain point for the given turning conditions,and the measured force drops into the extent with smaller relative error.In addition,the proce dure only needs less experimental data in modeling.This work is new and origina l,and helpful for engineering application.