A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

气候变化下中国珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属适生区模拟及GAP分析

【目的】为明晰中国珍稀濒危植物拟单性木兰属地理分布对气候变化的响应,为其管理和保护提供参考。【方法】基于拟单性木兰属常绿乔木的地理分布信息及38个环境变量数据,利用R语言优化的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测各物种适生区变化趋势,分析物种在自然保护区内的保护空缺(GAP)。【结果】MaxEnt优化预测后,各树种的AUC值均大于0.9,说明模型预测准确。中国珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属主要分布在秦岭—淮河以南地区。影响各拟单性木兰属分布的主导环境因子主要为气温和降水,其中影响峨眉拟单性木兰的主要因子为最干月降水量,最适范围为15~210 mm,同时还受海拔因素影响;影响光叶拟单性木兰生长的最主要因子为温度年较差,最适范围为9~26℃;乐东拟单性木兰生长的最主要影响因子为昼夜温差月均值,其适宜范围为6~8℃;云南拟单性木兰生长主要受到最干季均温影响,适宜范围在7~14℃,同时还受土壤因素影响。2061—2080年气候情景下,峨眉拟单性木兰和光叶拟单性木兰总适生区面积缩减11%~33%,乐东拟单性木兰和云南拟单性木兰总适生区面积分别扩增15%~28%,各树种迁移距离54~296 km。各拟单性木兰属常绿乔木在保护空缺面积较大,基准期及未来气候情景下,自然保护区内物种总适生区和高适生区面积分别在6%和11%以下。【结论】珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属分布最易受到最干月降水量、温度年较差、昼夜温差月均值等因素影响。在基准期时,各拟单性木兰属乔木高适生区面积分布较为零散。未来,随着气候变暖,峨眉拟单性木兰和光叶拟单性木兰高适生区面积缩减29%~51%;乐东拟单性木兰和云南拟单性木兰高适生区面积扩增21%~49%。未来自然保护区内各拟单性木兰的总适生区和高适生区面积在2%以内波动。建议在西南、华中、华东及华南等适生热度值高地区,增加自然保护区,以增强对中国珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属乔木的保护。

A Model of Grand Unified Theory: Suggested Solution for CP-Violation Using Ideas of Phase Paths

This study demonstrates that beyond standard model (BSM) cosmic fundamental interactions—weak, strong, and electromagnetic forces—can be unified through a common basis of representation. This unification allows for the derivation of the fine structure constant with running points of α(t) ≈ 1/(136.9038) at high energy scales, based on electroweak interactions. Through the application of the Ising model, the running point of the elementary charge e at high energy scales is determined, and Coulomb’s law is actually derived from the Yukawa potential. Theoretically, based on S. Weinberg’s electroweak interaction theory, this study unifies the strong and electromagnetic forces by representing them with rYuka, and further advances the reconstruction of the SU(3)C×SU(1)L×U(1)EMframework on the basis of electroweak interaction concepts. In fact, the cosmic fundamental forces can interchange at the mass gap, defined as the Yukawa turning phase at rYuka ≃1.9404 fm, with the SU(3)Diag structural constant fijk on glueballs calculated, estimating a spectrum mass gap of ∆0 > 0.

A bi-directional gap model for simulating the directional thermal radiance of row crops

Row crops are a kind of typical vegetation canopy between discrete canopy and continuous canopy.Kimes et al.studied the directional thermal radiation of row crops using the geometrical optical model,which simplified row structure as'box'and neglected the gap among foliage and did not consider the emissivity effects.In this work we take account of the gaps along illumination and viewing directions and propose a bi-direction gap model on the basis of the idea of gap probability of discrete vegetation canopy introduced by'Li-Strahler'and inter-correlation of continuous vegetation developed by Kuusk.It can be used to explain'hot spot'effects in thermal infrared region.The gap model has been validated by field experiment on winter wheat planted in shape of rows and results show that the gap model is better than Kimes'model in describing the directionality of thermal infrared emission for row crops.

Gap Model for Dual Customer Values

The customer value, the key problem in customer relationship management （CRM）, was studied to construct a gap model for dual customer values. A basic description of customer values is given, and then the gaps between products and services in different periods for the customers and companies are analyzed based on the product or service life-cycle. The main factors that influence the perceived customer value were analyzed to define the ＂recognized value gap＂ and a gap model for the dual customer values was constructed to supply companies with a tool to analyze existing customer value gaps and improve customer relationship management.

基于Info-gap理论的巷(隧)道围岩岩爆稳健可靠性预测

鉴于岩爆倾向性围岩对其参数变化的强敏感性,考虑巷(隧)道围岩物理、力学、环境等参数的变化幅度,建立了基于Info-gap理论的Info-gap模型、稳健函数及评价模型,定义了具有明确含义的安全系数。采用抗力—荷载模型,基于岩爆烈度分级标准,建立了岩爆预测的功能函数。通过工程实例验证了基于Info-gap理论的岩爆预测模型的可靠性,并探讨了各参数对岩爆预测结果的影响。结果表明:基于Info-gap理论的岩爆预测模型是合理和适用的;通过岩爆预测评价模型,可实现对强烈岩爆、中等岩爆、弱岩爆和无岩爆的连续评价预测;若评价结果为强烈岩爆,则中等岩爆和弱岩爆必发生,若评价结果为中等岩爆,则弱岩爆必发生;随支护力的增加,稳健可靠度指标增加,支护对岩爆烈度降低及岩爆发生与否有重要控制性作用;对于巷(隧)道围岩内部而言,所处位置不同,稳健可靠度指标不同,代表其岩爆烈度不同,通过稳健可靠性分析可得出不同岩爆烈度的岩爆深度;地应力值的变化对岩爆烈度及岩爆发生与否有重要影响。研究结果可为岩爆预测及控制提供依据。

Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

The AMSAA-BISE Model with Gap Intervals

In this paper, the AMSAA-BISE model with missing data is discussed. The ML estimates of model parameters and current MTBF are given, and the chi-squared test and a plot for cumulative number of failures versus cumulative testing time are used to test the goodness of fit for the model. This paper concludes with a numerical example to verify the model.

The Additive-multiplicative Hazards Model for Multiple Type of Recurrent Gap Times

Recurrent event gap times data frequently arise in biomedical studies and often more than one type of event is of interest. To evaluate the effects of covariates on the marginal recurrent event hazards functions, there exist two types of hazards models： the multiplicative hazards model and the additive hazards model. In the paper, we propose a more flexible additive-multiplicative hazards model for multiple type of recurrent gap times data, wherein some covariates are assumed to be additive while others are multiplicative. An estimating equation approach is presented to estimate the regression parameters. We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators.

Using Test Employee Capability Maturity Model for Supporting Gaps Bridging in Software Testing

This study addresses the challenge of assessing gaps among the differences of test people in eight groups by matching them based on four scenarios. The proposed model called Test Employee Capability Maturity Model (TEC-MM) helps find the gaps and measure the capability and maturity levels of each sub-maturity models in four dimensions as technicality, management, business, and personality. We applied TEC-MM to a software company which has instituted test people improvement strategy and plans to be a front runner in software testing industry. The findings reveal that gaps existed and consequently affect software testing process quality.

Study on Stack Effect of Stairwell by Numerical Model of Leakage Flow through Gap of Door

Since stack effect that occurs in high-rise buildings has an effect on the indoor environment of the buildings, energy loss and smoke control in case of a fire, there is a need to conduct research on this. For an analysis of the stack effect, analysis methods on the leakage flow through gap of interior door shall be formulated. Until now, studies related to the gap leakage flow in buildings have mainly analyzed flow field and pressure in the buildings one-dimensionally using pressure difference-leakage flowrate relations of Orifice Equation and a network numerical analysis algorithm that as- sumes each compartment in the buildings as a single point. In this study, the Momentum Loss Model which enables pressure drop to be proportional to the flow velocity through the gap of door in computational domain of 3-dimensional numerical analysis was proposed to reflect the gap flow phenomenon effectively in 3-dimensional numerical analysis. Using the proposed model, 3-dimensional numerical analysis of the stack effect on the stairs in buildings was performed, and the effects of separation door and lobby between stair and accommodation on the stack effect were investigated.

A Study on the Factors Influencing the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas Based on State-space Model

The increasingly widening income gap between urban and rural areas is affected by many factors. Using the stepwise regression analysis,we find that urbanization level,socio-economic development,education level,financial development scale and financial development efficiency have the greatest impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas. By cointegration test,it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these five variables and the income gap between urban and rural areas. We build the state-space model to research the dynamic impact of these factors on the income gap between urban and rural areas. The results show that by improving the level of urbanization,we can effectively narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas,while socio-economic development,the improvement of education level,expansion of financial development scale and financial development efficiency all significantly expand the income gap between urban and rural areas.

Dynamic development model for long gap discharge streamer-leader system based on fractal theory

Establishing a long air gap discharge model considering the streamer-leader transition and randomness of the discharge path is of great signiflcance to improve the accuracy of discharge characteristic prediction and optimize external insulation design.Based on fractal theory and thermal ionization theory of streamer-leader transition,this work establishes a dynamic development model for the long air gap discharge streamer-leader system,which includes streamer inception,streamer development,leader inception,development of streamer-leader system and flnal jump.The positive discharge process of a 3 m rod plate is simulated to obtain the fractal distribution of the discharge path and the law of leader development for comparison with the discharge test results.The results show that the simulation model is similar to test results in the development characteristics of leader path distribution,each stage time and leader velocity.Finally,a simulation calculation of a 50%breakdown voltage of the rod-plate gap and ball-plate gap is carried out,with results fairly consistent with test data,proving the effectiveness and practicality of the model.

四合木(Tetraena mongolica)的潜在适生区预测及其与自然保护区GAP分析

明晰物种的潜在分布区及其与当前自然保护区的空缺,对于合理高效地开展濒危物种保护具有重要的意义。为了预测四合木(Tetraena mongolica)在当代(2020s)及未来(2060s、2100s)的分布范围,以及自然保护区对四合木的保护现状,以四合木为对象,利用最大熵模型(The maximum entropy model software,MaxEnt)结合23个环境变量预测其在内蒙古自治区西鄂尔多斯与宁夏回族自治区的潜在适生区,并与当前四合木自然保护区进行了保护空缺分析。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积为0.977,表明预测结果准确。(2)影响四合木分布的主要环境因子是最湿月降水量,其次是最干月降水量、距道路距离、等温性、最冷季平均温度、坡度。(3)研究区内四合木当前适生面积为4717 km2;2020s—2100s四合木潜在分布区退缩,并向西北部偏移。(4)基于保护空缺分析,当前仅有14.88%四合木的适宜生境位于保护区内,大面积的四合木适生区未设立自然保护区,这些地区主要集中在内蒙古乌海市和鄂尔多斯市杭锦旗。研究结果旨在为四合木保护及其自然保护区建设提供科学指导。

数字普惠金融能否缓解城乡收入差距?——以安徽省为例

文章基于2011—2021年安徽省16个地级市的数据作为研究样本,使用向量自回归模型(PVAR)从覆盖力度、使用深度和数字化程度三个维度探讨了数字普惠金融对安徽省城乡收入差距的影响,并进一步对皖北、皖中和皖南地区进行了异质性分析。研究结果表明:数字普惠金融能够显著缓解农村和城镇间的收入差距;三个维度中,覆盖力度能够显著促进城乡收入差距的缩小,使用深度并没起到缓解作用,数字化程度虽有缓解但效果不显著;此外,数字普惠金融对缩小皖北地区城乡收入差距较皖南和皖中地区更为明显。建议贯彻“因地制宜”原则,制定区域数字普惠金融计划;借力数字经济,发挥包容增长效应;推动民企发展,助力低收入群体就业,并强化金融知识普及,促进全体居民福利水平的提升。

盾构壁后注浆窜浆模型试验及发生条件研究

全断面围岩管片壁后注浆因向开挖面方向的窜浆现象会引起盾尾空隙注浆不饱满,管片上浮、错台及开裂,螺机喷涌等事故常有发生,已经引起广泛重视。通过设计自制壁后注浆液窜浆模型装置进行试验,分析浆液性质、缝隙厚度、注浆压力差对是否发生窜浆及窜浆量的影响,并探讨了不发生窜浆的临界条件。结果表明:(1)浆液压力与窜浆距离呈线性衰减,当浆液稠度较低时,窜浆量与缝隙厚度、浆液稠度呈近似线性正相关、与浆液的剪切屈服应力呈近似线性负相关,窜浆距离与注浆压力差呈近似线性正相关;当浆液稠度增大时,以上关系将逐渐转化为非线性关系;(2)通过极差分析表明浆液的窜浆量受盾壳与岩层间缝隙厚度影响最大,注浆压力与开挖面压力差影响其次,最后是浆液本身的性质;(3)建立了窜浆临界分析模型和计算公式,得到了窜浆发生条件和判别方法,可用于指导稳定围岩地层中盾构掘进时浆液的配制。

公平与效率能否兼得?——中国城镇化模式与城乡发展差距

城镇化不仅有利于缩小城乡收入差距,促进公平,也有利于提升经济发展水平,提高效率。中国的城镇化模式大体可分为两类:以人口集聚在大城市及其周边地区的“城化”为主,以及以人口分散于小城镇的“镇化”为主。实证结果表明,在全国范围内,“城化”和“镇化”均有助于缩小城乡收入差距。但是,分区域来看,沿长江或沿海地区的“城化”不仅能显著缩小城乡收入差距,而且更为高效;而在内陆地区,“镇化”虽也能缩小城乡收入差距,但效率较低。

辅丝对摇动电弧窄间隙GMA焊接温度场的影响

【目的】旨在建立主辅丝同步的摇动电弧窄间隙GMA焊温度场模型。【方法】从宏观传热学出发,综合考虑横断面几何形状特征、主丝和辅丝的运动及焊缝表面形状对电弧热流分布特征的影响,并利用ANSYS软件对不加辅丝和主辅丝同步摇动两种情况下的电弧瞬态温度场及热循环曲线进行了模拟计算。【结果】焊缝横断面的计算结果、测温特征点热循环曲线的计算结果,与试验结果接近。【结论】证明模型可以真实反映添加辅丝的摇动电弧的移动轨迹及分布特征,具有较高的准确性。不加辅丝时,焊缝横断面底部有明显“双峰”特征,主辅丝同步摇动时,“双峰”特征明显减弱。主辅丝同步摇动情况下的热影响区宽度略有增加。

长白山温带森林生态系统关键要素耦合及演替过程动态模拟

认识生态系统内和生态系统间耦合机制,揭示复合生态系统功能规律,对促进我国山水林田湖草沙项目一体化修复和保护实践具有重要的意义。针对目前修复和保护工程中出现的缺乏系统性、连续性等问题,以拥有丰富生态资源的长白山温带森林生态系统为研究区域,对其关键要素“水土气生”进行耦合建模。通过分析模型的运行机理,探究重要子模块之间的相互作用以及子模块内部生态关键要素的耦合机制,并以长白山温带落叶阔叶林的组成树种和环境因素为对象构建模型参数,通过运行林窗模型1000次,得出长白山温带森林的动态演替过程。结果表明:在森林生态系统的演替过程中,“水土气生”体现为模型中有效积温、干旱天数(低于土壤凋萎点的天数)、土壤可利用氮以及可利用光,这些关键要素之间相互影响,综合决定着每棵树木的更新、生长、死亡过程。模拟结果显示在长白山温带针阔混交林的动态演替过程中0—70 a, 70—170 a, 170—280 a, 280—400 a四个阶段分别有不同的树种组成特征,与真实演替过程比较发现模拟林具有明显的阶段性。白桦、山杨为演替先锋树种,0—70 a期间生物量共占比为55%,70 a后生物量减少最后消失;紫椴、蒙古栎、水曲柳等为过渡树种,这些树种进一步改变了生长环境。红松在170 a前生物量占比仅为3%左右,随演替的发展生物量持续增加,170—280 a期间生物量占比15%,280 a之后红松生物量占总林分的50%。该结果模拟森林动态过程符合演替规律,充分说明多关键要素“水土气生”耦合机制的合理性,对于促进生态系统尺度上多生态要素耦合的相关研究提供了科学理论基础以及方法技术。

林隙(Gap)模型研究进展

林隙（Ｇａｐ）模型研究进展于振良赵士洞（中国科学院自然资源综合考察委员会，北京１００１０１）ＡｄｖａｎｃｅｓｏｆＧａｐＭｏｄｅｌ．ＹｕＺｈｅｎｌｉａｎｇ，ＺｈａｏＳｈｉｄｏｎｇ（ＣｏｍｍｉｓｉｏｎｆｏｒＩｎｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄＳｕｒｖｅｙｏｆＮａｔｕｒａ...