Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan ...Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.展开更多
Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate...Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.展开更多
Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan M...Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.展开更多
Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes b...Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） physical package was used, there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields. Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon, particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics. More model validations, such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.展开更多
Long-term integrations are conducted using the Spectral Atmospheric Model （referred to as SAMIL）, which was developed in the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ...Long-term integrations are conducted using the Spectral Atmospheric Model （referred to as SAMIL）, which was developed in the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, with different resolutions to inves-tigate sensitivity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO） simulations to the model＇s resolution （horizontal and vertical）. Three resolutions of the model, R15L9, R42L9 and R42L26, with identical physical processes, all produced the basic observed features of the MJO, including the spatiotemporal space-time spectra and eastward propagation. No fundamental differences among these simulations were found. This indicates that the model resolution is not a determining factor for simulating the MJO. Detailed differences among these modeling results suggest, however, that model resolution can substantially affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. For instance, at a lower horizontal resolution, high frequency disturbances were weaker and the structures of the simulated MJO were better defined to a certain extent. A higher vertical resolution led to a more realistic spatiotemporal spectrum and spatial distribution of MJO precipitation. Meanwhile, increasing the model＇s resolution improved simulation of the climatology. However, increasing the resolution should be based on improving the cumulus parameterization scheme.展开更多
It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin o...It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.展开更多
The general features of the seasonal suuface heat budget in the tropical western Pacific Ocean,20°S-20°N, western boundary-160°E, were documented by Qu (1995) using a high-resolution generalcirculation ...The general features of the seasonal suuface heat budget in the tropical western Pacific Ocean,20°S-20°N, western boundary-160°E, were documented by Qu (1995) using a high-resolution generalcirculation model (GCM, Semtner & Chervin,1992) ard existing observations.Close inspection of thesmaller areas, with the whole region further partitioned into six parts, showed different mechanisms balancethe seasonal surface heat budget in different parts of the region The results of study on five subregionsare detailed in this article. In the equatorial (3°S - 3°N) aed North Equatorial Countercurrent(3°N-9°N) region, the surface the flux the does not change significantly throughout the year, so the surface heat content is determined largely by vertical motion near the equator and roughly helf due to horizontal and halfdue to vertical circulation in the region of the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC). In the othersubregions (9°N-20°N, 20°S -11°S aed 11°S -3°S ), however, in addition to ocean展开更多
This paper describes the large scale aspects of the seasonal surface heat budget and discusses itsmain forcing mechanisms in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.The high-resolution generalcirculation model (Semtner &am...This paper describes the large scale aspects of the seasonal surface heat budget and discusses itsmain forcing mechanisms in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.The high-resolution generalcirculation model (Semtner & Chervin,1992)used in this study reproduced well the observed upper-layer thermal structure and circulation.It is shown that at least on the average of the study region(20°S-20°N,west boundary-160°E)the semiannual variation is a dominant signal for all heat budgetcomponents and is presumably due to the sun’s passing across the equator twice a year,but that thecomponents have substantial differences in amplitude.The local Ekman divergence in the region doesnot change significantly through the year.As a result,the change in surface heat content is roughlyhalf due to ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and half due to heat advection by remotely forced verti-cal motion.Horizontal currents do not play a significant role directly by advection,because the wat-er which enters the region is not very展开更多
The use of crop modelling in various cropping systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under the facets of climate change has gained currency in recent years. This paper provides an ev...The use of crop modelling in various cropping systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under the facets of climate change has gained currency in recent years. This paper provides an evaluation of crop models that have been used by researchers to simulate maize growth and productivity. Through a systematic review approach, a comprehensive assessment of 186 published articles was carried out to establish the models and parameterization features, simulated impacts on maize yields and adaptation strategies in the last three decades. Of the 23 models identified, CERES-maize and APSIM models were the most dominant, representing 49.7% of the studies undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Current research shows projected decline in maize yields of between 8% - 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century, and that adaptation is essential in alleviating the impacts of climate change. Major agro-adaptation options considered in most papers are changes in planting dates, cultivars and crop water management practices. The use of multiple crop models and multi-model ensembles from general circulation models (GCMs) is recommended. As interest in crop modelling grows, future work should focus more on suitability of agricultural lands for maize production under climate scenarios.展开更多
Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)...Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.展开更多
Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at...Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.展开更多
基金supported by the Thousand Youth Talents Plan(Xinjiang Project)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41630859)the West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2016QNXZB12)
文摘Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130405)the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province(R2020SC04)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA2006030201)the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150410381).
文摘Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261026,41971094,42161025)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005)+1 种基金the Higher Education Innovation Foundation of Education Department of Gansu Province(2022A041)the open foundation of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone(XJYS0907-2023-01).
文摘Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.
文摘Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） physical package was used, there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields. Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon, particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics. More model validations, such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.
文摘Long-term integrations are conducted using the Spectral Atmospheric Model （referred to as SAMIL）, which was developed in the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, with different resolutions to inves-tigate sensitivity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO） simulations to the model＇s resolution （horizontal and vertical）. Three resolutions of the model, R15L9, R42L9 and R42L26, with identical physical processes, all produced the basic observed features of the MJO, including the spatiotemporal space-time spectra and eastward propagation. No fundamental differences among these simulations were found. This indicates that the model resolution is not a determining factor for simulating the MJO. Detailed differences among these modeling results suggest, however, that model resolution can substantially affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. For instance, at a lower horizontal resolution, high frequency disturbances were weaker and the structures of the simulated MJO were better defined to a certain extent. A higher vertical resolution led to a more realistic spatiotemporal spectrum and spatial distribution of MJO precipitation. Meanwhile, increasing the model＇s resolution improved simulation of the climatology. However, increasing the resolution should be based on improving the cumulus parameterization scheme.
文摘It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.
基金This study was supported by the Australial CSIRO Division of Oceanographythe National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.49176255)
文摘The general features of the seasonal suuface heat budget in the tropical western Pacific Ocean,20°S-20°N, western boundary-160°E, were documented by Qu (1995) using a high-resolution generalcirculation model (GCM, Semtner & Chervin,1992) ard existing observations.Close inspection of thesmaller areas, with the whole region further partitioned into six parts, showed different mechanisms balancethe seasonal surface heat budget in different parts of the region The results of study on five subregionsare detailed in this article. In the equatorial (3°S - 3°N) aed North Equatorial Countercurrent(3°N-9°N) region, the surface the flux the does not change significantly throughout the year, so the surface heat content is determined largely by vertical motion near the equator and roughly helf due to horizontal and halfdue to vertical circulation in the region of the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC). In the othersubregions (9°N-20°N, 20°S -11°S aed 11°S -3°S ), however, in addition to ocean
文摘This paper describes the large scale aspects of the seasonal surface heat budget and discusses itsmain forcing mechanisms in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.The high-resolution generalcirculation model (Semtner & Chervin,1992)used in this study reproduced well the observed upper-layer thermal structure and circulation.It is shown that at least on the average of the study region(20°S-20°N,west boundary-160°E)the semiannual variation is a dominant signal for all heat budgetcomponents and is presumably due to the sun’s passing across the equator twice a year,but that thecomponents have substantial differences in amplitude.The local Ekman divergence in the region doesnot change significantly through the year.As a result,the change in surface heat content is roughlyhalf due to ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and half due to heat advection by remotely forced verti-cal motion.Horizontal currents do not play a significant role directly by advection,because the wat-er which enters the region is not very
文摘The use of crop modelling in various cropping systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under the facets of climate change has gained currency in recent years. This paper provides an evaluation of crop models that have been used by researchers to simulate maize growth and productivity. Through a systematic review approach, a comprehensive assessment of 186 published articles was carried out to establish the models and parameterization features, simulated impacts on maize yields and adaptation strategies in the last three decades. Of the 23 models identified, CERES-maize and APSIM models were the most dominant, representing 49.7% of the studies undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Current research shows projected decline in maize yields of between 8% - 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century, and that adaptation is essential in alleviating the impacts of climate change. Major agro-adaptation options considered in most papers are changes in planting dates, cultivars and crop water management practices. The use of multiple crop models and multi-model ensembles from general circulation models (GCMs) is recommended. As interest in crop modelling grows, future work should focus more on suitability of agricultural lands for maize production under climate scenarios.
基金funded by the Deputy of Research Affairs, Lorestan University, Iran (Contract No. 1400-6-02-518-1402)
文摘Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.
文摘Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.
