Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.

Climate Simulations Based on a Different-GridNested and Coupled Model

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics / State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/ LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. AVIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/ LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon gitude 7.5?and latitude 4.5? the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5?by 1.5?to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis.Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Seasonal Prediction Experiments of the Summer Droughts and Floods during the Early 1990′s in East Asia with Numerical Models

It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.

Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.

Future meteorological drought conditions in southwestern Iran based on the NEX-GDDP climate dataset

Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.

Simulated perturbation in the sea-to-air flux of dimethylsulfi de and the impact on polar climate

Marine biogenic emission of dimethylsulfi de(DMS)has been well recognized as the main natural source of reduced sulfur to the remote marine atmosphere and has the potential to aff ect climate,especially in the polar regions.We used a global climate model(GCM)to investigate the impact on atmospheric chemistry from a change to the contemporary DMS fl ux to that which has been projected for the late 21 st century.The perturbed simulation corresponded to conditions that pertained to a tripling of equivalent CO 2,which was estimated to occur by year 2090 based on current worst-case greenhouse gas emission scenarios.The changes in zonal mean DMS fl ux were applied to 50°S–70°S Antarctic(ANT)and 65°N–80°N Arctic(ARC)regions.The results indicate that there are clearly diff erent impacts after perturbation in the southern and northern polar regions.Most quantities related to the sulfur cycle show a higher increase in ANT.However,most sulfur compounds have higher peaks in ARC.The perturbation in DMS fl ux leads to an increase of atmospheric DMS of about 45%in ANT and 33.6%in ARC.The sulfur dioxide(SO 2)vertical integral increases around 43%in ANT and 7.5%in ARC.Sulfate(SO 4)vertical integral increases by 17%in ANT and increases around 6%in ARC.Sulfur emissions increases by 21%in ANT and increases by 9.7%in ARC.However,oxidation of DMS by OH increases by 38.2%in ARC and by 15.17%in ANT.Aerosol optical depth(AOD)increases by 4%in the ARC and by 17.5%in the ANT,and increases by 22.8%in austral summer.The importance of the perturbation of the biogenic source to future aerosol burden in polar regions leads to a cooling in surface temperature of 1 K in the ANT and 0.8 K in the ARC.Generally,polar regions in the Antarctic Ocean will have a higher off setting eff ect on warming after DMS fl ux perturbation.

SEASONAL HEAT BUDGET IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A GLOBAL GCM I. GENERAL DESCRIPTION*

This paper describes the large scale aspects of the seasonal surface heat budget and discusses its main forcing mechanisms in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean. The high - resolution general circulation model (Semtner & Chervin, 1992) used in this study reproduced well the observed upper-layer thermal structure and circulation. It is shown that at least on the average of the study region (20 °N -20°N, west boundary-160 °E) the semiannual variation is a dominant signal for all heat budget components and is presumably due to the sun's passing across the equator twice a year; but that the components have substantial differences in amplitude. The local Ekman divergence in the region does not change significantly through the year. As a result, the change in surface heat content is roughly half due to ocean ?atmosphere heat exchange and half due to heat advection by remotely forced verti-cal motion. Horizontal currents do not play a significant role directly by advection, because the wat-er which enters the region is not very much different in temperature from the water which leaves it.

Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

A Statistically-Based Low-Level Cloud Scheme and Its Tentative Application in a General Circulation Model

In this study, a statistical cloud scheme is first introduced and coupledwith a first-order turbulence scheme with second-order turbulence moments parameterized by thetimescale of the turbulence dissipation and the vertical turbulent diffusion coefficient. Then theability of the scheme to simulate cloud fraction at different relative humidity, verticaltemperature profile, and the timescale of the turbulent dissipation is examined by numericalsimulation. It is found that the simulated cloud fraction is sensitive to the parameter used in thestatistical cloud scheme and the timescale of the turbulent dissipation. Based on the analyses, theintroduced statistical cloud scheme is modified. By combining the modified statistical cloud schemewith a boundary layer cumulus scheme, a new statistically-based low-level cloud scheme is proposedand tentatively applied in NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) CCM3 (Community ClimateModel version 3). It is found that the simulation of low-level cloud fraction is markedly improvedand the centers with maximum low-level cloud fractions are well simulated in the cold oceans off thewestern coasts with the statistically-based low-level cloud scheme applied in CCM3. It suggeststhat the new statistically-based low-level cloud scheme has a great potential in the generalcirculation model for improving the low-level cloud parameterization.

ADVANCES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING SINCE 1990

Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climate modeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a more substantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regional climate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the world and the outlook of regional climate modeling.

INVESTIGATIONS ON SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION BY GCMs IN CHINA

Investigations on the short-term climate predictions by general circulation models(GCMs)in China have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The research shows that GCMs have the capability to predict the seasonal and annual characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the patterns of temperature and precipitation over China.It is inspiring to notice that the GCMs have the ability to predict the summer rainfall over China before two seasons.Several issues for the short-term climate prediction by the GCMs have been discussed in this paper.

EXPERIMENTS OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION BY THE OSU/NCC GCM FOR SUMMER SEASON IN CHINA

By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/ NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE INFLUENCES OF GENERAL CIRCULATION ANOMALY OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND SURFACE ALBEDO CHANGE IN NORTHWEST CHINA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION

An advanced three-level global atmospheric general circulation model has been used to study the summer precipitation anomaly in Northwest China.based on the synoptic fact and the statistical analysis of the precipitation,the surface albedo in Northwest China,and the synoptic systems over the Tibetan(Qinghai-Xizang)Plateau.The results show that either the anticyclone intensified over the plateau or the surface alhedo enhanced in Northwest China results in summer precipitation reduction east of Northwest China.Especially.when both of them appear simultaneously,summer precipitation was obviously reduced and severe drought occurred in most areas of Northwest China.Moreover.the simulated difference of precipitation rate of Northwest China is similar to the actural precipitation distribution in Northwest China in 1995,which is the most severe drought year in Northwest China in the past fifty years.So the tendency in drought severity intensified,drought frequency accelerated,drought persistence period extended,and drought areas expanded in Northwest China in recent years is maybe a result of the influences of human activities(e.g.vegetation was reduced,and desertification worsened)on drought circulation pattens over the Tibetan Plateau.

GCM STUDIES ON ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA

Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.