Influence of Climate Warming on the Agriculture in Shenbei New District of Shenyang

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climate warming on the agriculture in Shenbei New District of Shenyang in recent 38 years.[Method] Based on the temperature data in Shenbei New District of Shenyang during 1971-2008,by using the conventional statistical method,the variation trends of temperature and active accumulated temperature in Shenbei New District under the climate warming environment were analyzed,and the influence of climate warming on the agriculture was discussed.[Result] The annual average temperature,annual average maximum temperature,annual averageminimum temperature and ≥ 0℃,≥ 10℃ active accumulated temperatures which were passed stably in Shenbei New District in recent 38 years all showed the obvious rising trend.The climate tendency rates were respectively 0.4,0.3,0.1℃/10 a and 79.1,76.7℃·d/10 a.They all showed the declining trend in the coldest December,January and the rising trend in other months.The rising range of maximum temperature was bigger than that ofminimum temperature,and the rising range in summer was bigger than that in winter.The analysis result was different from that of many scholars.When the temperatures rose,and the heat resources increased,the agricultural cropping index improved,and the cultivated boundary of mid-late maturity variety moved northward.The industrialized agriculture developed quickly.Meanwhile,the risks of drought and flood disasters increased,and the insect pest aggravated.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for improving the cognizance about the influence of climate warming on the agricultural production and strengthening the strain capacity of local agricultural production adapting the climate variation.

Assessing Vulnerability of Food Availability to Climate Change in Hai District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania

Climate change has a large effect on agriculture sector and, consequently, on the food available for residents of Hai District and other regions of Tanzania. Based on four decades of climate data, this study assessed the impacts of climate change and its potential vulnerability on food availability in Hai District, Kilimanjaro region. The results from this study suggest an association between food crop production and variation in climate (temperature and rainfall) in Hai District. Considering the aspect of rainfall and temperature, we demonstrate that rainfall and temperature have significant relationship with maize and bean outputs. The rainfall had a strong positive association with maize and beans production and whereas temperature had inverse relationship with maize and beans yields. With the annual loss $0.04 million and $0.01 million per year from cattle and goats/sheep respectively and the additional annual loss of $29 million and $10.8 million from maize and bean crops respectively in Hai District during years of severe and prolonged droughts, our study highlighted how severe droughts can dramatically affect agriculture production and food security in the area. To mitigate climate change and provide effective adaptation measures, it is imperative to develop a broader research framework, which integrates bio-physical and socioeconomic aspects of food systems which addresses its vulnerability and thereby improve food security.

Study of the Indicators of Climate Change in Mysore District, Karnataka, India

The study aims to find out the changes of climate change parameters for Mysore district. To analyse the variations in climatic parameters like Rainfall and Temperature, data were used for a period of 1986-2016, and Humidity data were used for a period of 2000-2016 to study the nature of climate change in the region. The findings of the study show that the climate variability and climate change for Mysore district, the monthly Rainfall is increased and monsoon Rainfall shows a decrease in trend. And the monthly, summer, monsoon minimum Temperature shows that decrease. Generally, the monthly maximum Temperature has decreased, but in case of summer and monsoon seasons increased respectively, and the monthly Relative Humidity has increased (positive). There is a decrease in Relative Humidity from January to April, and increase in the Relative Humidity during Monsoon season for Mysore District. The Annual average of Relative Humidity shows that it is increased for Mysore District.

Crop Yield Sensitivity to Climatic Variability as the Basis for Creating Climate Resilient Agriculture

Climate change and variability are presenting challenges to the agricultural sector as well as agricultural sustainability in Zimbabwe. This paper was aimed at investigating the impacts of climate change and variability on maize, sorghum and groundnut production in the Buhera district of Zimbabwe. The paper specifically determined the climatic scenarios in Buhera and how crop production is sensitive to them. Temperature and rainfall data used were obtained from the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department. Crop yield data for maize, sorghum and groundnuts were obtained from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Extension Buhera District office. The Mann-Kendall Trend test was then used to determine if there were significant changes in the precipitation and temperature scenarios at Buhera weather station. Before performing the Mann-Kendall test, the time series data were first tested for auto-correlation. Finally the Spearman’s correlation coefficient was used to determine how precipitation and crop yields were related and the strength of their relationships. Mann-Kendall trend tests reviewed that only mean minimum temperatures show significant trends over time (p = 0.003, α = 0.05). Correlation analysis showed that only maize showed a significant correlation coefficient with the amount of rainfall (r = 0.79, r2 = 0.625 and p = 0.001, α = 0.05). The research showed that groundnuts were the least sensitive to climatic variations followed by sorghum;hence their production offers the best climatic resilience and must be encouraged to local subsistence farmers.

Statistical Modeling of Malaria Incidences in Apac District, Uganda

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Apac district, Northern Uganda. Hence, the study aimed to model malaria incidences with respect to climate variables for the period 2007 to 2016 in Apac district. Data on monthly malaria incidence in Apac district for the period January 2007 to December 2016 was obtained from the Ministry of health, Uganda whereas climate data was obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority. Generalized linear models, Poisson and negative binomial regression models were employed to analyze the data. These models were used to fit monthly malaria incidences as a function of monthly rainfall and average temperature. Negative binomial model provided a better fit as compared to the Poisson regression model as indicated by the residual plots and residual deviances. The Pearson correlation test indicated a strong positive association between rainfall and malaria incidences. High malaria incidences were observed in the months of August, September and November. This study showed a significant association between monthly malaria incidence and climate variables that is rainfall and temperature. This study provided useful information for predicting malaria incidence and developing the future warning system. This is an important tool for policy makers to put in place effective control measures for malaria early enough.

河套灌区农田植被物候和NDVI峰值对气候变化的响应

【目的】研究河套灌区植被物候参数和NDVI峰值时空变化特征及对气候变化的响应。【方法】利用2001—2021年MOD13Q1数据和双logistic四参数模型,识别了河套灌区植被SOS、EOS、LOS、POS、NDVI峰值时空变化特征及对气候变化的响应。【结果】河套灌区植被SOS一般从5月下旬到6月中旬开始,到9月中旬至10月上旬结束,LOS主要介于95~116 d,POS主要介于200~220 d,NDVI峰值主要介于0.5~0.7。植被物候变化趋势主要体现在SOS的推迟、LOS的缩短和NDVI峰值的增加。SOS的推迟导致LOS的缩短。而EOS和POS呈提前和推迟趋势的像元比较接近。河套灌区SOS、EOS、POS与气温均以负敏感为主,与降水量以正敏感为主。NDVI峰值与气温和降水量均呈正敏感。【结论】河套灌区物候参数和NDVI峰值的变化趋势具空间异质性,对不同气候因子的响应也有所差异。

大型灌区土壤水盐运移模拟研究进展

土壤盐渍化是一种由自然和人类活动综合作用引起的土地退化现象,灌区人类活动频繁,影响土壤盐渍化的因素多样,深入理解土壤水盐运移过程将有助于灌区的土壤盐渍化防治。在对灌区土壤水盐运移的影响因素、国内外水盐模型特点和应用研究梳理的基础上,提出了灌区水盐运移模拟的可能发展方向。灌区盐渍化的形成与气候干旱、地形、土壤季节性冻融、地下水含盐量和成土母质等自然因素,以及不合理的灌溉管理措施、耕作方式和施肥制度等人为因素密切相关。水盐运移模型是研究土壤水盐运移过程的有效工具,目前常用的水盐运移模型包括水盐平衡模型、物理模型和统计模型。由于模型率定和验证所需的土壤水盐运移过程、作物生长过程观测资料较难获取,水盐运移模型多用于田间尺度的节水控盐策略和灌排管理措施优化研究,在区域应用较为有限。现代大型灌区的快速发展导致灌区土壤水盐运移时空分布规律变化较大,对模型的不断改进以及计算机技术的快速发展为探究大型灌区水盐运移时空演变机制提供了可能性。未来应加强基于生态安全的灌区土壤水盐运移机制研究,构建耦合气候模式或经济模型的多过程水盐运移模型。

Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth in Panzhuang Irrigation District, Shandong Province

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production. Future climate change will bring important influences to the food security. The CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the winter wheat growing process and production in Panzhuang Irriga- tion District （PID） during 2011-2040 under B2 climate scenario based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） assumptions with the result of RCMs （Regional Climate Models） projections by PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies） system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and validated with independent field-measured growth data in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008 growing season under current climatic conditions at Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station （YCES）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS） The results show that a significant impact of climate change on crop growth and yield was noted in the PID study area. Average temperature at Yucheng Station rose by 0.86℃ for 1961-2008 in general. Under the B2 climate scenario, average temperature rose by 0.55℃ for 2011-2040 compared with the baseline period （1998-2008）, which drastically shortened the growth period of winter-wheat. However, as the temperature keep increasing after 2030, the top-weight and yield of the winter wheat will turn to decrease. The simulated evapotran- spiration shows an increasing trend, although it is not very significant, during 2011-2040. Water use efficiency will increase during 2011-2031, but decrease during 2031-2040. The results indicate that climate change enhances agricultural production in the short-term, whereas continuous increase in temperature limits crop production in the long-term.

基于灰色关联度和主成分分析的涪陵区茎瘤芥种植气候适宜性评估

为了确定茎瘤芥(榨菜)在涪陵区的适宜种植区域,通过利用灰色关联度和主成分分析方法,结合19个生物气候指标,开展其气候适宜性分析,对涪陵区各乡镇村社的种植气候适宜性进行综合评估。研究发现,等权关联和综合评价模型的结果均支持将涪陵区421个村社的种植气候适宜性划分为3类:Ⅰ类为高适宜区(λ≥0.913),包括新妙、石沱东南部、义和、马鞍南部、龙桥、崇义、江北、南沱西北部、百胜东南部、珍溪东南部、白涛部分地区、荔枝部分地区、江东部分地区;Ⅱ类为中适宜区(0.764≤λ<0.913),包括增福、石沱西北部、义和北部、李渡、马鞍北部、蔺市北部、荔枝大部分、江东南部、白涛东北部、焦石西南部;Ⅲ类为低适宜区(λ<0.764),包括龙潭、同乐、青羊、马武、大木、武陵山、罗云、焦石、百胜西北部、珍溪西北部。结果表明,涪陵西北、东北地区是茎瘤芥种植的较佳适宜地。通过研究,为涪陵区茎瘤芥生产的合理布局提供决策参考,有助于促进茎瘤芥产业健康持续发展。

增温对西北半干旱区马铃薯产量和品质的影响

过去50年,西北半干旱区干旱化趋势明显加强,对作物生产产生了明显影响。未来50年全球气候继续变暖,直接影响农业生产,必将对粮食安全提出新的挑战。采用红外线辐射器田间增温模拟实验研究表明,随着温度升高马铃薯播种—出苗—现蕾—开花—成熟各生长阶段天数都发生变化。增温0.5—2.5℃,马铃薯播种—出苗、出苗—现蕾阶段分别缩短1—4 d、1—2d,现蕾—开花、开花—熟阶段分别延长1—2 d、1—10 d,马铃薯播种—成熟全生育期延长1—5 d。伴随温度升高,马铃薯全生长期有所延长,特别是盛花期至茎叶枯萎阶段延长明显,这将有利于防止茎叶早衰和淀粉的积累。增温显著减少了每株薯块量、提高了每块薯重,马铃薯产量总体呈现递增趋势,但差异不显著。增温1.5—2.5℃,马铃薯增产1.0%—3.5%。增温0.5—2.0℃,马铃薯干物质含量从22.4%增加到24.5%,淀粉含量从72.1%增加到74.4%,粗蛋白含量从1.82%减少到1.52%,还原糖含量从0.24%减少到0.22%,表明增温有利于马铃薯干物质和淀粉的积累,不利于粗蛋白和还原糖的形成。

广西气候区划

研究过去有关广西气候区划的成果和1961-2000年气候整编资料,以稳定通过10℃期间的积温6900℃和8000℃等积温线作为划分气候带的指标,以2-4月降水量300mm,200mm等雨量线和1月平均气温9℃等温线作为划分气候区的指标,制作新的广西气候区划,并评述各气候区的气候特点。广西气候划分为3个气候带,9个气候区。3个气候带自北向南分为中亚热带、南亚热带和北热带,各气候区命名为：中亚热带东北部气候区、中亚热带北部气候区、中亚热带东南部气候区、中亚热带桂中气候区、中亚热带西南部气候区、南亚热带东部气候区、南亚热带中部气候区、南亚热带西部气候区、沿海北热带气候区。

新疆罗布泊地区近3.2万年沉积物的气候环境记录

文章对新疆罗布泊地区罗北洼地CK-2钻孔自顶部到10.35m的岩芯,按5cm间隔取样,进行了磁化率、粒度、色度、碳酸盐、有机质含量和pH值的12项环境代用指标的测定,以及相关样品的质谱-铀系法定年,得出了近32000年以来在该地区经历的4个冷湿和暖干变化的气候-环境序列:阶段Ⅰ(31.98～19.26kaB.P.),处于晚韦克萨尔冰期的早期,经历了全球变化的未次盛冰期(23～19kaB.P.),12项环境指标的统计平均值为-0.8773,是本序列的最低值,对应为最强的冷湿期;阶段Ⅱ(19.26～13.53kaB.P.)为继后的间冰期,相应环境指标的统计平均值为+0.5233,环境转为暖干期;阶段Ⅲ(13.53～12.73kaB.P.)为晚韦克萨尔冰期的晚期和得里亚斯冰期,也是全球未次冰期的晚期,其环境指标统计平均值为-0.1075,环境转冷湿;阶段Ⅳ(12.73kaB.P.～近代)为全新世温暖期,其环境指标统计平均值为+1.275,是本序列的最高值,气候转为强暖干期。在阶段Ⅳ,12.08～11.80kaB.P.处出现了新仙女木(YD)的冷事件,10～9kaB.P.为全新世期内最早出现暖事件的时间。从冰期与间冰期的旋回分析,本区的气候-环境变化与全球同步,反映出受到全球变化的主旋律制约。从区域的特征分析,由于受到青藏高原的隆升、西风的加强,而西南和东亚季风的减弱,出现了冷/湿和暖/干的气候-环境变化的大格局,其不同于我国东部季风气候区的冷/干、暖/湿变化的大趋势。从环境代用指标的统计值(从-0.8773到+1.275)表明,本地区的干旱化进程是自然变率的必然结果,到全新世温暖期间更为突出。而近数千年或近数十年的人类活动营力只起到了叠加或促成的作用。

黑龙港地区夏播早熟玉米区气候资源研究——以河北省沧州市为例

对黑龙港地区沧州市夏播早熟玉米区气候资源的研究表明,该区夏播早熟玉米穗粒数和粒重决定期中温度是对产量影响最大的气候因子,降雨量次之,而粒重决定期综合气候生态作用相对更大,所引起的粒重变化是穗粒数决定期综合气象作用的2倍。玉米籽粒决定期日均气温、日照时数、降雨量与穗粒数分别为正对数、正指数及负幂函数曲线关系,玉米籽粒灌浆期间粒重与日均气温呈负线性关系,与气温日较差呈正线性关系,与降雨量呈二次曲线关系。该区种植早熟玉米品种粒数决定期一般年份雨水偏多,粒重决定期则多数年份降雨不足,灌浆期热量资源过盛。

重庆黔江区生态旅游气候资源评估

基于重庆黔江区气象、环境、森林、植被、旅游及其他生态环境方面的资料,从生态特征和旅游气候资源两方面评估了黔江区生态旅游气候资源,以期为该区旅游资源开发利用提供决策依据.结果表明:黔江气候清凉,夏无酷暑冬无严寒.夏季平均气温24.9℃,接近人体感觉最舒适气温,日最高气温≥35℃的高温日数年均7d,仅占全年的2%,是周边300km范围内高温天气相对较少的地区,夏季舒适日数多,非常适合避暑纳凉的休闲生活.生态环境质量优良,生态资源丰富,生物多样性特征突出,黔江森林覆盖率是全国森林覆盖率的2.5倍多.空气、水、声环境优良,负氧离子丰富,空气清新.黔江旅游资源丰富,种类齐全,峡谷峡江独具特色.清凉舒适的宜居气候条件,清新怡人的优良生态环境,独具特色的峡江峡谷美景,黔江拥有着得天独厚的生态旅游气候资源.

河套灌区近50年气候变化特征及趋势分析

以河套灌区为研究区,收集、整理和分析了河套灌区由西向东的磴口、杭后、临河、五原、前旗5个区域近50年的气候资料:包括降水量、气温、日照总时数、无霜期、平均风速、蒸发量等,分别运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendell法和小波分析等手段,研究了该地区不同时段、不同区域的气象因子的趋势性、突变性和周期性.结果显示:近50年来灌区年平均气温呈逐年上升的趋势,并且通过了M-K显著性检验.50年间增温幅度约为2℃,各月极端气温差约为41℃,且各月气温呈明显的升高趋势,突变点为1990年;灌区年降水量在波动中呈微弱增加的线性趋势,增加总量不足10mm;而灌区年蒸发量自2000年以来呈现出明显的增加趋势,增加的蒸发量体现在春季的2、3、4月份;灌区年平均风速有明显的降低趋势,突变点为2000年;年日照总时数有变短、年无霜期有增加趋势,但二者变化趋势并不明显.

利用GIS技术对樱桃进行气候区划

本文根据新泰樱桃生长发育所需气候条件,运用山东省1：5万地理信息数据和泰安市及泰安周边县市1970—2000年30年的气候资料,建立了泰安市数字高程模型(DEM),结合小网格推算方法和气候要素地理推算模型对新泰樱桃适宜种植区进行农业气候区划,为新泰樱桃的合理布局和优化推广提供科学依据。

6.25km高分辨率降尺度数据对雄安新区及整个京津冀地区未来极端气候事件的预估

基于RCP4.5情景下6.25 km高分辨率统计降尺度数据,使用国际上通用的极端气候事件指数,分析雄安新区及整个京津冀地区未来极端气候事件的可能变化。首先对当代模拟结果进行评估,结果表明,集合平均模拟可以较好地再现大部分极端气候事件指数的分布,且对与气温有关的极端气候事件指数模拟效果较好。但也存在一定偏差,特别是对连续干旱日数(CDD)的模拟效果相对较差。集合平均的预估结果表明,未来在全球变暖背景下,雄安新区及整个京津冀地区均表现为极端暖事件增多,极端冷事件减少,连续干旱日数减少,极端强降水事件增多。具体来看,到21世纪末期,日最高气温最高值(TXx)和日最低气温最低值(TNn)在整个区域上都是增加的,大部分地区增加值分别超过2.4℃和3.2℃;夏季日数(SU)和热带夜数(TR)也都表现为增加,但两者的变化分布基本相反,其中SU在山区增加幅度较大,平原地区增加幅度较小,而TR在平原地区的增加值较山区更显著,两个指数未来增加值分别为20～40 d和5～40 d;霜冻日数(FD)和冰冻日数(ID)都表现为减少,减少值分别超过10 d和5 d;与降水有关的极端气候事件指数,CDD、降雨日数(R_(1mm))和中雨日数(R_(10mm))的变化均以减少为主,但数值较小,一般都在-10%～0之间;最大5 d降水量(R_(X5day))、降水强度(SDII)和大雨日数(R_(20mm))主要表现为增加,增加值一般在0～25%之间。从区域平均的变化来看,与气温有关的极端气候事件指数的变化趋势较为显著,与降水有关的极端气候事件指数变化趋势较小。两个区域对比来看,雄安新区模式间的不确定性更大,反映出模式对较小区域模拟的不足。

RegCM4模式对雄安及周边区域气候变化的集合预估

基于CSIRO-Mk3-6-0、EC-EARTH、Had GEM2-ES和MPI-ESM-MR共4个全球气候模式,分别驱动区域气候模式Reg CM4,所进行的RCP4.5(典型浓度路径)中等排放情景下25 km较高水平分辨率东亚区域21世纪气候变化模拟结果,针对雄安新区及周边区域,在对当代(1986~2005)气候进行检验的基础上,进行了该区域未来气候变化的多模拟集合预估,并给出了模拟间的差别。结果表明:Reg CM4可以较好地模拟出分析区域当代平均气温和降水的分布及年内月循环变化特征;对与气温相关的极端气候事件指数,日最高气温最高值(TXx)和日最低气温最低值(TNn),以及和降水相关的指数日最大降水量(RX1day)也有较好的模拟能力。雄安及周边区域未来平均气温、TXx和TNn将不断上升,高温热浪事件在增加的同时,低温事件将减少。未来分析区域平均降水量有所增加;而RX1day的增加更明显,且模拟间的一致性较好,不确定性相对较低,暴雨和洪涝事件的频率和强度均将增大。同时由于气温升高导致的潜在蒸发量相对于降水更大的增加,将使得区域水资源相对不足的现象加重。

区域建筑负荷与能耗预测研究综述

从区域建筑负荷与能耗的影响因素和预测方法两方面阐述了区域建筑负荷与能耗预测的研究现状。影响区域建筑负荷与能耗的因素包括单体建筑能耗影响因素和区域特有的影响因素(城市形态与微气候)。基本预测方法有自上而下方法和自下而上方法。自下而上方法较为常见,在应用时需引入同时使用系数,并结合情景分析方法。由于没有成熟的区域建筑负荷与能耗预测软件,目前主要有两种预测方法:基本模型方法,如基于实际调研获得的统计模型和利用GIS技术建模等;考虑微气候与城市形态的影响,通过能耗模拟软件与其他工具耦合进行模拟。考虑到我国建筑的特点,可采用自下而上方法与情景分析方法结合进行区域建筑负荷与能耗预测。

植物稳定同位素研究进展与展望

植物稳定同位素是近年来在地理学、生态学研究中逐步广泛应用的研究手段,具有综合长期生物地球化学过程和联系不同系统成分的特点,国际上已经展开了较为广泛的应用,国内也有相关研究。本文对国内外植物C、H、O稳定同位素研究的回顾,显示植物稳定同位素与环境因子,如气温、湿度、降水、环境稳定同位素组成等密切相关。目前植物稳定同位素技术主要应用于历史时期环境气候的重建,恢复大气CO2同位素组成以及CO2浓度的变化趋势。本文根据植物稳定同位素的特点和研究基础,认为植物稳定同位素方法不仅可以用来重建历史时期气候,而且在区域环境差异及其生态效应研究上有着重要应用前景。