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The Modified GM( 1 , 1) Grey Forecast Model
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作者 Wang Chengzhang Guo Yaohuang Li Qiang (School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University)Chengdu 61 0031 , China 《Journal of Modern Transportation》 1995年第2期157-162,共6页
Because the impacts of the factors such as some disturbances are graduallyadded into the system, the grey forecast results will deviate from the systemtrue value. To improve the forecast precision, Pro-Dens Julons pro... Because the impacts of the factors such as some disturbances are graduallyadded into the system, the grey forecast results will deviate from the systemtrue value. To improve the forecast precision, Pro-Dens Julons provided twomethfor-But they had not consider the impact of artificial disturbance. LiZhihua et al. of Qinghua Univ. presented another method. This paper revisesthe method and make it be a spocial case. 展开更多
关键词 grey forecast gm(1 1 ) model influential factor
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灰色改进等维新息GM(1,1)模型在电力系统长期负荷预测中的应用 被引量:4
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作者 施怀瑾 刘敏 《贵州工学院学报》 1994年第2期43-46,78,共5页
本文分析了灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型用于长期负荷预测时的局限性,针对电力系统需求增长的特点,提出了灰色改进等维新息GM(1,1)模型,对江苏电网的用电量进行测算的结果表明,采用改进等维新息GM(1,1)模型进行长... 本文分析了灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型用于长期负荷预测时的局限性,针对电力系统需求增长的特点,提出了灰色改进等维新息GM(1,1)模型,对江苏电网的用电量进行测算的结果表明,采用改进等维新息GM(1,1)模型进行长期负荷预测的精度高于一般灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,给出了程序框图与测算结果。 展开更多
关键词 负荷预测 灰色系统预测 电力系统
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连续GM(1,N)模型的建立及在色谱保留行为的预测
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作者 孙兆林 张素萍 +5 位作者 张晓彤 祈克新 周山花 陆斌 宋丽娟 白建娥 《抚顺石油学院学报》 1996年第3期47-51,共5页
应用灰色系统理论,导出连续GM(1,N)模型,建立了灰色数模运算软件,并将其应用于高效液相色谱中溶质保留行为的预测,均获得了满意的结果。
关键词 灰色系统 色谱 高效液相色谱 模型
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公路货物运输发展影响因素的灰熵分析及其GM(1,N)预测
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作者 王璐 吴群琪 《陕西交通职业技术学院学报》 2016年第1期31-35,39,共6页
公路货物运输是现代运输主要方式之一。基于公路货物运输发展的历史数据,采用灰熵分析法,对公路货物运输发展影响因素的显著性进行分析;建立GM(1,N)模型,对公路货运周转量及其显著影响因素进行预测。研究结果表明:工农业总产值... 公路货物运输是现代运输主要方式之一。基于公路货物运输发展的历史数据,采用灰熵分析法,对公路货物运输发展影响因素的显著性进行分析;建立GM(1,N)模型,对公路货运周转量及其显著影响因素进行预测。研究结果表明:工农业总产值、固定资产总投资和GDP是影响我国公路货运周转量发展的三个最显著影响因素;建立的GM(1,N)灰色预测模型,能够较好地预测公路货运周转量及其最显著的三个影响因子的发展趋势,且预测结果与统计数据吻合较好。在公路货物运输发展研究中引入灰色系统理论是可行的,通过灰熵分析与GM(1,N)多因素预测,可为各级决策部门制定公路货物运输发展战略和发展规划提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 公路 货物运输 灰熵分析法 gm(1 N)预测模型
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非等间距GM(1,1)模型及其在疲劳试验数据处理和疲劳试验在线监测中的应用 被引量:56
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作者 罗佑新 周继荣 《机械强度》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 1996年第3期60-63,共4页
在分析疲劳试验数据处理的现状后,提出疲劳试验数据处理及疲劳试验数据在线监测的非等间距的灰色GM(1,1)模型与方法。这种方法弥补了现有疲劳试验数据处理及其在线监测方法的不足。实例表明该方法简单实用,值得推广使用。
关键词 疲劳试验 在线 非等间距 数据处理
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Forecast Grain “Three Quantities” Based on Grey GM (1, 1) and Promote the Structural Reform of Grain Supply Side 被引量:1
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作者 Bingjun Li Xiaoxiao Zhu 《Agricultural Sciences》 2018年第11期1432-1443,共12页
As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s liv... As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s livelihood. Firstly, the present situation of grain production is analyzed, and the problems facing the structural reform of grain supply side in China are analyzed from grain output and its import and export volume. Secondly, we use grey GM (1, 1) model to predict grain output and consumption, grain import and export volume and all kinds of grain crops output in China, and then analyze the future trend of grain production in China. Finally, we put forward construction of grain branding, rational allocation of grain planting varieties, construction of traceability system for grain production, further grain processing and development of “Internet agriculture” industrial model to promote structural reform of grain supply side. 展开更多
关键词 GRAIN The Structural REFORM of Supply Side GREY gm (1 1) model TRACEABILITY System
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Study on the Prediction of Rice Blast Based on the Unbiased GM (1,1) Model 被引量:1
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作者 魏代俊 曾艳敏 邹迎春 《Plant Diseases and Pests》 CAS 2010年第6期4-6,共3页
To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM (1,1) model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new ... To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM (1,1) model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM (1, 1 ) model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM (1, 1 ) model is higher than the unbiased GM (1,1) model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010. 展开更多
关键词 Unbiased gm (1 1 model Five-point slide method Optimization PREDICTION Rice blast
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Prediction of efficient outputs based on GM(1,N) model and weak DEA efficiency 被引量:2
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作者 Jiefang Wang Sifeng Liu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第6期933-939,共7页
This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit(DMU) as the sum of "average outputs" forecasted by a GM(1,N) model and "increased outputs" which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient ou... This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit(DMU) as the sum of "average outputs" forecasted by a GM(1,N) model and "increased outputs" which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n + 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM(1,N) model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given. 展开更多
关键词 efficient outputs gm(1 N) model data envelopment analysis(DEA) weak DEA efficiency prediction.
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离散的GM(1,1,t^2,t)模型及其应用
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作者 蒋红梅 魏勇 《湘潭大学自然科学学报》 北大核心 2017年第2期9-12,共4页
针对软土地基沉降问题,利用灰色理论提出GM(1,1,t^2,t)模型,通过优化灰导数白化值建立离散的GM(1,1,t^2,t)新模型,并用最小二乘法估计新模型的5个参数.通过软土地基沉降的实例应用,说明离散的GM(1,1,t^2,t)模型的模拟预测效果优于GM(2,1... 针对软土地基沉降问题,利用灰色理论提出GM(1,1,t^2,t)模型,通过优化灰导数白化值建立离散的GM(1,1,t^2,t)新模型,并用最小二乘法估计新模型的5个参数.通过软土地基沉降的实例应用,说明离散的GM(1,1,t^2,t)模型的模拟预测效果优于GM(2,1)模型. 展开更多
关键词 优化灰导数 gm(1 1 t2)模型 最小二乘法 软土地基沉降
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多变量GM(1,n)模型在桥梁施工挠度控制中的应用 被引量:13
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作者 张熙胤 陈兴冲 王常峰 《世界桥梁》 北大核心 2013年第5期76-80,共5页
在大跨度桥梁施工控制中,传统单变量灰色理论受误差影响较大,为提高在多因素影响下的挠度预测精度,在单变量GM(1,1)模型的基础之上,通过建立多变量灰微分矩阵方程,结合灰色预测原理,提出一种多变量GM(1,n)关联预测模型。用MATLAB编制了... 在大跨度桥梁施工控制中,传统单变量灰色理论受误差影响较大,为提高在多因素影响下的挠度预测精度,在单变量GM(1,1)模型的基础之上,通过建立多变量灰微分矩阵方程,结合灰色预测原理,提出一种多变量GM(1,n)关联预测模型。用MATLAB编制了相应的计算程序,并将其应用于新建太中银铁路跨青银高速(75+120+75)m预应力混凝土连续梁的高程预测中,实践结果显示该模型基本准确地预测了架设过程中各梁段高程。 展开更多
关键词 桥梁工程 施工控制 灰色理论 gm(1 n)模型 关联预测 MATLAB程序
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Application of Renewal Gray GM (1,1) Model to Prediction of Landslide Deformation 被引量:1
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作者 Zhaoyang Wang 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2017年第9期148-154,共7页
The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and... The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality. 展开更多
关键词 LANDSLIDE RENEWAL GRAY gm (1 1) model GRAY System THEORY
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基于GM(1,1)模型的光纤陀螺随机漂移建模
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作者 郭铃 吴训忠 +1 位作者 金毅 宋吉磊 《导弹与航天运载技术》 北大核心 2013年第5期41-43,共3页
针对差分法在陀螺随机漂移建模中的缺陷,提出将GM(1,1)模型与AR模型相结合的非平稳序列建模方法,将光纤陀螺随机漂移分为确定性的趋势项部分和平稳序列部分,并引入GM(1,1)模型用于提取趋势项,通过AR模型对平稳序列建模,最终实现光纤陀... 针对差分法在陀螺随机漂移建模中的缺陷,提出将GM(1,1)模型与AR模型相结合的非平稳序列建模方法,将光纤陀螺随机漂移分为确定性的趋势项部分和平稳序列部分,并引入GM(1,1)模型用于提取趋势项,通过AR模型对平稳序列建模,最终实现光纤陀螺随机漂移的非平稳时序建模。分析表明,该模型拟合精度较高,是光纤陀螺随机漂移建模的一种有效方法。 展开更多
关键词 光纤陀螺 随机漂移 gm(1 1 AR模型
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Construction of GM(2,1)Model for Oscillating Pitch Angle Series
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作者 SHEN Ji-hong , ZHAO Xi-ren College of Science, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China College of Automation , Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China 《Journal of Marine Science and Application》 2002年第1期65-68,共4页
GM(1, 1) is generally used in Grey System Theory which constructs an Ordinary Differential Equation for given se-ries. It is effective for monotone series, and its simulating effect is good and error is small. However... GM(1, 1) is generally used in Grey System Theory which constructs an Ordinary Differential Equation for given se-ries. It is effective for monotone series, and its simulating effect is good and error is small. However, If the series dosen’ t havea property of monotone, the simulating effect of GM(1,1) is not fine, and its error gets bigger. In this paper, we use GM(2,1) to handle the oxcillation series, which uses the Method of Minimum Squares in determining the uncertain parameters. 展开更多
关键词 gm( 1 1) model gm(2 1) model method of minimum SQUARE simulation of SHIP PITCH
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Application of Gray Metabolic GM (1,1) Model in Prediction of Annual Total Yields of Chinese Aquatic Products
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作者 Songqian HUANG Weimin WANG +2 位作者 Cong ZENG Shuang HAO Xiaojuan CAO 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2013年第3期21-25,共5页
To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray ... To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. 展开更多
关键词 GRAY system METABOLIC gm ( 1 1) model AQUATIC prod
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基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测 被引量:56
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作者 范胜龙 杨玉珍 +2 位作者 陈训争 张莉 黄炎和 《中国土地科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第9期19-27,共9页
研究目的:对福建省2004—2015年的耕地生态安全状况进行评价,并对2016—2025年的安全状况进行预测,以指导区域耕地合理、可持续利用。研究方法:运用PSR评价模型建立评价指标体系、熵权法确定权重,采用无偏GM(1,1)模型进行预测,通过障碍... 研究目的:对福建省2004—2015年的耕地生态安全状况进行评价,并对2016—2025年的安全状况进行预测,以指导区域耕地合理、可持续利用。研究方法:运用PSR评价模型建立评价指标体系、熵权法确定权重,采用无偏GM(1,1)模型进行预测,通过障碍度模型确定障碍因子。研究结果:(1)2004—2015年福建省耕地生态安全值呈曲折上升趋势,安全级别从较安全级上升为安全级;(2)预测结果显示,2016—2025年福建省耕地生态安全状况维持在安全状态,但安全值呈直线下降趋势;(3)通过障碍度模型得出未来10年福建省耕地生态安全的障碍因素主要集中在经济发展状况及农业生产活动方面。研究结论:2004—2015年,福建省的耕地生态安全状况总体较好,未来10年的耕地安全状况还需通过出台惠农政策、大力开展土地整治及宣传耕地生态安全知识等措施加强。 展开更多
关键词 土地生态 耕地生态安全 PSR模型 无偏gm(1 1)模型 障碍度模型 福建省
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Predicting the Number of Beijing Science and Technology Personnel Based on GM(1,N) Model
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作者 Xiaocun Mao Zhenping Li 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2016年第5期299-309,共11页
In this paper, based on the Science and Technology Statistics in Beijing Statistical Yearbook, grey theory is used to study the relationship among S&T (Science and Technology) activities personnel, R&D (resear... In this paper, based on the Science and Technology Statistics in Beijing Statistical Yearbook, grey theory is used to study the relationship among S&T (Science and Technology) activities personnel, R&D (research and development) personnel FTE (Full Time Equivalent), intramural expenditure for R&D and Patent Application Amount. According to the grey correlation coefficient, screening of grey GM(1,N) prediction variables, the grey prediction model is established. Meanwhile, time series model and GM(1,1) model are established for patent applications and R&D personnel equivalent FTE. By comparing the simulating results with the real data, the absolute relative error of prediction models is less than 10%. The results of the prediction model are tested. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, the mean values of the predicted values of the two models are brought into the GM(1,N) model to predict the number of scientific and technical personnel in Beijing during 2015-2025. Forecast results show that the number of science and technology personnel in Beijing will grow with exponential growth trend in the next ten years, which has a certain reference value for predicting the science and technology activities and formulating the policy in Beijing. 展开更多
关键词 Grey Relational Analysis gm(1 N) model Time Series Science and Technology
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区间灰数表征与算法改进及其GM(1,1)模型应用研究 被引量:58
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作者 方志耕 刘思峰 +2 位作者 陆芳 万军 刘斌 《中国工程科学》 2005年第2期57-61,共5页
针对目前区间灰数的表征和运算过程中存在着较为严重的问题 ,即 :运算结果对灰数的灰度进行不必要的放大 ,造成信息的严重失真 ,笔者定义了标准区间灰数与第一和第二标准区间灰数的概念 ,分析了第一和第二标准区间灰数之间的关系 ,进一... 针对目前区间灰数的表征和运算过程中存在着较为严重的问题 ,即 :运算结果对灰数的灰度进行不必要的放大 ,造成信息的严重失真 ,笔者定义了标准区间灰数与第一和第二标准区间灰数的概念 ,分析了第一和第二标准区间灰数之间的关系 ,进一步设计了普通区间灰数与标准区间灰数之间的转换规则 ,提供了标准区间灰数之间的比较与运算法则 ,较好地解决了区间灰数之间的大小比较与运算问题。最后 ,将这一研究成果应用于基于区间数的GM (1,1)模型预测问题 ,取得了良好的效果。 展开更多
关键词 区间灰数 标准区间灰数 表征 gm(1 1)模型 运算规则
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GM(1,1)模型在铝电解氧化铝浓度估计中的应用研究 被引量:7
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作者 张红亮 李劼 +2 位作者 张文根 陈湘涛 邹忠 《仪器仪表学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第4期883-887,共5页
详细介绍了灰色GM(1,1)模型的原理及建立步骤。将GM(1,1)模型引入到铝电解氧化铝浓度估算中,对基于Kalman滤波的氧化铝浓度自适应估算模型进行修正。灰色模型建模维度为5,对采用浓度自适应估算模型得到的浓度与实际浓度的偏差序列进行预... 详细介绍了灰色GM(1,1)模型的原理及建立步骤。将GM(1,1)模型引入到铝电解氧化铝浓度估算中,对基于Kalman滤波的氧化铝浓度自适应估算模型进行修正。灰色模型建模维度为5,对采用浓度自适应估算模型得到的浓度与实际浓度的偏差序列进行预测,将预测值反馈到浓度自适应估算模型中,形成新的浓度估算值。通过对电解生产中的30余组氧化铝浓度工艺数据进行估算,结果表明,经修正后,浓度估算值与实际值变化趋势保持一致,基本能满足铝电解工业现场的应用要求。 展开更多
关键词 铝电解 氧化铝浓度 自适应估计模型 gm(1 1)模型 模型修正
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灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用研究 被引量:11
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作者 迟道才 王海南 +2 位作者 李雪 陈涛涛 王堃 《节水灌溉》 北大核心 2011年第8期32-35,共4页
随着时间的发展,任何一个灰系统都会加入一些未来的扰动因素,对系统的发展产生影响。而常规灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在建模时,采用的是现实时刻t=n为止的过去的数据,没有考虑这些扰动因素。故离现实时刻越远,该模型的预测精度就越低。针对... 随着时间的发展,任何一个灰系统都会加入一些未来的扰动因素,对系统的发展产生影响。而常规灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在建模时,采用的是现实时刻t=n为止的过去的数据,没有考虑这些扰动因素。故离现实时刻越远,该模型的预测精度就越低。针对这种情况,提出了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型。并尝试用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型对阜新市参考作物腾发量进行预测。结果表明:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型的预测精度较常规灰色GM(1,1)预测模型有了明显的提高。该模型建模过程简单、适用性强,为参考作物腾发量的预测提供了新的方法。 展开更多
关键词 新陈代谢 灰色gm(1 1)模型 参考作物腾发量 预测模型
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非等间距GM(1,1)模型背景值的改进及其最优化 被引量:10
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作者 刘圣保 张公让 +1 位作者 李巧巧 汤义强 《合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第11期1749-1752,共4页
背景值构造方法是影响非等间距GM(1,1)模型精度和适应性的关键因素之一,文章分析了非等间距GM(1,1)模型中的背景值,提出了用Newton插值和数值积分中的Newton-Cores公式与Gauss-Legendre公式分别重构模型中的背景值。该背景值不仅适合于... 背景值构造方法是影响非等间距GM(1,1)模型精度和适应性的关键因素之一,文章分析了非等间距GM(1,1)模型中的背景值,提出了用Newton插值和数值积分中的Newton-Cores公式与Gauss-Legendre公式分别重构模型中的背景值。该背景值不仅适合于非等间距建模,也适合于等间距建模,该模型进一步拓广了GM(1,1)的适应范围,数据模拟结果充分说明了新模型的有效性和优越性。 展开更多
关键词 非等间距 gm(1 1)模型 背景值
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