煤炭是我国能源资源安全的压舱石,“双碳”背景下实现煤炭清洁加工与高效利用意义重大,而灰分检测对煤炭清洁化和智能化发展尤为重要。针对现有灰分检测存在的检测精度有待提高的突出问题,以两淮矿区典型煤样为研究对象,通过慢灰和X射...煤炭是我国能源资源安全的压舱石,“双碳”背景下实现煤炭清洁加工与高效利用意义重大,而灰分检测对煤炭清洁化和智能化发展尤为重要。针对现有灰分检测存在的检测精度有待提高的突出问题,以两淮矿区典型煤样为研究对象,通过慢灰和X射线荧光(X ray fluorescence,XRF)测试系统地探究了煤样的灰分和元素组成分布规律,并结合机器学习理论构建了灰分-元素特征数据集;结合灰色系统理论和新陈代谢算法,构建了自适应的GM(1,N)动态网络灰分拟合优化模型,并详细设计了动态网络算法流程;提出了GM(1,N)动态模型的关键超参数,并通过与常规拟合方法对比,全面地评价了模型拟合性能。结果表明:两淮矿区煤可视为由可燃元素和成灰元素共同构成,且成灰元素中质量分数占比最高为Si和Al,次之为S、Fe和Ca等,最少为P和Cl等,并且煤中成灰元素总含量与灰分呈正相关,而可燃元素与之相反;以灰分为标签值、以组成元素为特征值,形成了煤的灰分-元素特征数据集;以样本数据划分→动态网络灰分拟合→模型评价机制→动态拟合模型自适应优化→鲁棒性提升→多轮迭代优化为主线设计了GM(1,N)动态网络灰分拟合模型及其算法流程,有效提升了数据集稳定性和新鲜度,并且迭代收敛速度快,灰分误差阈值5%时其准确率达100%;对比经典GM(1,N)模型和常规多元线性回归模型,证明了新模型的灰分拟合性能得到显著提升,其相对误差为0.16%~4.96%、误差均值仅2.29%。展开更多
The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and...The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.展开更多
To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray ...To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.展开更多
Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to prev...Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to preview a facility＇ s stability .The gray GM （1, 1） model doesn＇ t need a large number of example statistics, and it is also accurate, so this model solved the problem in the analyze and preview of the stability of the missile＇ s electronic facility system, and it has possibility to imply to engineering use.展开更多
文摘煤炭是我国能源资源安全的压舱石,“双碳”背景下实现煤炭清洁加工与高效利用意义重大,而灰分检测对煤炭清洁化和智能化发展尤为重要。针对现有灰分检测存在的检测精度有待提高的突出问题,以两淮矿区典型煤样为研究对象,通过慢灰和X射线荧光(X ray fluorescence,XRF)测试系统地探究了煤样的灰分和元素组成分布规律,并结合机器学习理论构建了灰分-元素特征数据集;结合灰色系统理论和新陈代谢算法,构建了自适应的GM(1,N)动态网络灰分拟合优化模型,并详细设计了动态网络算法流程;提出了GM(1,N)动态模型的关键超参数,并通过与常规拟合方法对比,全面地评价了模型拟合性能。结果表明:两淮矿区煤可视为由可燃元素和成灰元素共同构成,且成灰元素中质量分数占比最高为Si和Al,次之为S、Fe和Ca等,最少为P和Cl等,并且煤中成灰元素总含量与灰分呈正相关,而可燃元素与之相反;以灰分为标签值、以组成元素为特征值,形成了煤的灰分-元素特征数据集;以样本数据划分→动态网络灰分拟合→模型评价机制→动态拟合模型自适应优化→鲁棒性提升→多轮迭代优化为主线设计了GM(1,N)动态网络灰分拟合模型及其算法流程,有效提升了数据集稳定性和新鲜度,并且迭代收敛速度快,灰分误差阈值5%时其准确率达100%;对比经典GM(1,N)模型和常规多元线性回归模型,证明了新模型的灰分拟合性能得到显著提升,其相对误差为0.16%~4.96%、误差均值仅2.29%。
文摘The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.
基金Supported by Special Project for Construction of Modern Agricultural Industrial Technology System(Grant No.:CARS-46-05)Scientific and Technological Project of Huazhong Agricultural University(Grant No.:52902-0900206038)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No:31201719)
文摘To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
文摘Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to preview a facility＇ s stability .The gray GM （1, 1） model doesn＇ t need a large number of example statistics, and it is also accurate, so this model solved the problem in the analyze and preview of the stability of the missile＇ s electronic facility system, and it has possibility to imply to engineering use.
