Comparison and Analysis of Two Different Calculation Schemes of SLEVE-Hybrid Coordinate in the GRAPES_MESO Model

The calculation scheme of the smoothed-level and hybrid(SLEVE-hybrid for short)coordinates in numerical forecasting model is not limited in number.It is divided into the semi-analytical scheme and the finite differential scheme in terms of the various differential methods of the coordinate deformation variables.Having compared the dynamic equation and the long-time batch simulation results of the two schemes,the present study draws the following conclusions.The first-order finite difference accuracy of the coordinate deformation variables in the finite differential scheme is theoretically lower than that in the semi-analytical scheme.The larger the vertical gradient of the layer thickness is,the larger the relative errors of the finite differential scheme are.The long-time batch simulation test in the GRAPES model dynamic core demonstrates that the bias of the temperature and the geopotential height in the semianalytical scheme is smaller under the default layering,while the simulation difference of the two schemes is greatly reduced when the layering is more uniform.

Simulation of Typhoon Muifa using a mesoscale coupled atmosphere–ocean model

A mesoscale coupled atmosphere–ocean model has been developed based on the GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） regional typhoon model（GRAPES_TYM） and ECOM-si（estuary, coast and ocean model（semi-implicit））. Coupling between the typhoon and ocean models was conducted by exchanging wind stress, heat, moisture fluxes, and sea surface temperatures（SSTs） using the coupler OASIS3.0. Numerical prediction experiments were run with and without coupling for the case of Typhoon Muifa in the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of using more accurate SST information on the simulation of the track and the intensity of Typhoon Muifa, experiments were also conducted using increased SST resolution in the initial condition field of the control test. The results indicate that increasing SST resolution in the initial condition field somewhat improved the intensity forecast, and use of the coupled model improved the intensity forecast significantly, with mean absolute errors in maximum wind speed within 48 and 72 h reduced by 32% and 20%, respectively. Use of the coupled model also resulted in less pronounced over-prediction of the intensity of Typhoon Muifa by the GRAPES_TYM. Moreover, the effects of using the coupled model on the intensity varied throughout the different stages of the development of Muifa owing to changes in the oceanic mixed layer depth. The coupled model had pronounced effects during the later stage of Muifa but had no obvious effects during the earlier stage. The SSTs predicted by the coupled model decreased by about 5–6℃ at most after the typhoon passed, in agreement with satellite data. Furthermore, based on analysis on the sea surface heat flux, wet static energy of the boundary layer, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation forecasted by the coupled model and the control test, the simulation results of this coupled atmosphere–ocean model can be considered to reasonably reflect the primary mechanisms underlying the interactions between tropical cyclones and oceans.

Modification of Cumulus Convection and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the GRAPES Global Model

Cumulus convection is a key linkage between hydrological cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Cumulus parameterization scheme is an important component in numerical weather and climate modeling studies. In the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System （GRAPES）, turbulent mixing and diffusion approach is applied in its shallow convection scheme. This method overestimates the vertical transport of heat and moisture fluxes but underestimates cloud water mixing ratio over the region of stratocumulus clouds. As a result, the simulated low stratocumulus clouds are less than observations. To overcome this problem, a mass flux method is employed in the shallow convection scheme to replace the original one. Meanwhile, the deep convection scheme is adjusted correspondingly. This modification is similar to that in the US NCEP Global Forecast System （GFS）, which uses the simplified Arakawa Schubert Scheme （SAS）. The planetary boundary layer scheme （PBL） is also revised by considering the coupling between the PBL and stratocumulus clouds. With the modification of both the cumulus and PBL schemes, the GRAPES simulation of shallow convective heating rate becomes more reasonable; total amounts of stratocumulus clouds simulated over the eastern Pacific and their vertical structure are more consistent with observations; the underestimation of stratocumulus clouds simulated by original schemes is less severe with the revised schemes. Precipitation distribution in the tropics becomes more reasonable and spurious precipitation is effectively suppressed. The westward extension and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high simulated with the revised schemes are more consistent with Final Operational Global Analysis （FNL） than that simulated with the original schemes. The statistical scores for the global GRAPES forecast are generally improved with the revised schemes, especially for the simulation of geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and winds in the tropics. Root mean square errors （RMSEs） decrease in the lower and upper troposphere with the revised schemes. The above results indicate that with the revised cumulus and PBL schemes, model biases in the tropics decrease and the global GRAPES performance is greatly improved.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

Diagnostic Study of Global Energy Cycle of the GRAPES Global Model in the Mixed Space-Time Domain

Some important diagnostic characteristics for a model’s physical background are reflected in the model’s energy transport, conversion, and cycle. Diagnosing the atmospheric energy cycle is a suitable way towards understanding and improving numerical models. In this study, formulations of the “Mixed Space-Time Domain”energy cycle are calculated and the roles of stationary and transient waves within the atmospheric energy cycle of the Global-Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES） model are diagnosed and compared with the NCEP analysis data for July 2011. Contributions of the zonal-mean components of the energy cycle are investigated to explain the performance of numerical models. The results show that the GRAPES model has the capability to reproduce the main features of the global energy cycle as compared with the NCEP analysis. Zonal available potential energy （AZ） is converted into stationary eddy available potential energy （ASE） and transient eddy available potential energy （ATE）, and ASE and ATE have similar values. The nonlinear conversion between the two eddy energy terms is directed from the stationary to the transient. AZ becomes larger with increased forecast lead time, reflecting an enhancement of the meridional temperature gradient, which strengthens the zonal baroclinic processes and makes the conversion from AZ to eddy potential energy larger, especially for CAT （conversion from AZ to ATE）. The zonal kinetic energy （KZ） has a similar value to the sum of the stationary and transient eddy kinetic energy. Barotropic conversions are directed from eddy to zonal kinetic energy. The zonal conversion from AZ to KZ in GRAPES is around 1.5 times larger than in the NCEP analysis. The contributions of zonal energy cycle components show that transient eddy kinetic energy （KTE） is associated with the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet and the conversion from KZ to KTE reduces in the upper tropopause near 30？S. The nonlinear barotropic conversion between stationary and transient kinetic energy terms （CKTE） is reduced predominantly by the weaker KTE.

IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SEA FOG ON GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE FACTOR OF TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER

The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the near-surface layer(T_(1000 hPa)-T_(2m))and sea fog is analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of l°xl°(2000 to 2011) and the station observations(2010 to 2011).The element is treated as the prediction variable factor in the GRAPES model and used to improve the regional prediction of sea fog on Guangdong coastland.(1) The relationship between this factor and the occurrence of sea fog is explicit:When the sea fog happens,the value of this factor is always large in some specific periods,and the negative value of this factor decreases significantly or turns positive,suggesting the enhancement of warm and moist advection of air flow near the surface,which favors the development of sea fog.(2) The transportation of warm and moist advection over Guangdong coastland is featured by some stages and the jumping among these states.It also gets stronger over time.Meanwhile,the northward propagation of warm and moist advection is quite consistent with the northward advancing of sea fog from south to north along the coastland of China.(3) The GRAPES model can well simulate and realize the factor of near-surface temperature difference.Besides,the accuracy of regional prediction of marine fog,the relevant threat score and Heidke skill score are all improved when the factor is involved.

Parallelization Load Balance Strategy for a Global Grid-Point Model

The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System（GRAPES）is a new-generation operational numerical weather prediction（NWP）model developed by the China Meteorological Administration（CMA）.It is a grid-point model with a code structure different from that of spectral models used in other operational NWP centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）,National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）,and Japan Meteorological Agency（JMA）,especially in the context of parallel computing.In the GRAPES global model,a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian scheme is used for the discretization over a sphere,which requires careful planning for the busy communications between the arrays of processors,because the Lagrangian differential scheme results in shortened trajectories interpolated between the grid points at the poles and in the associated adjacent areas.This means that the latitude-longitude partitioning is more complex for the polar processors.Therefore,a parallel strategy with efficient computation,balanced load,and synchronous communication shall be developed.In this paper,a message passing approach based on MPI（Message Passing Interface）group communication is proposed.Its key-point is to group the polar processors in row with matrix-topology during the processor partitioning.A load balance task distribution algorithm is also discussed.Test runs on the IBM-cluster 1600 at CMA show that the new algorithm is of desired scalability,and the readjusted load balance scheme can reduce the absolute wall clock time by 10% or more.The quasi-operational runs of the model demonstrate that the wall clock time secured by the strategy meets the real-time needs of NWP operations.

Developments of the Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for the Nonhydrostatic GRAPES

Based on the original GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）3DVAR（p3DAR）, which is defined on isobaric surface,a new three-dimensional variational data assimilation system（m3DVAR） is constructed and used exclusively with the nonhydrostatic GRAPES model in order to reduce the errors caused by spatial interpolation and variable transformation,and to improve the quality of the initial value for operational weather forecasts.Analytical variables of the m3DVAR are fully consistent with predictands of the GRADES model in terms of spatial staggering and physical definition.A different vertical coordinate and the nonhydrostatic condition are taken into account,and a new scheme for solving the dynamical constraint equations is designed for the m3DVAR.To deal with the diffculties in solving the nonlinear balance equation atσlevels,dynamical balance constraints between mass and wind fields are reformulated,and an effective mathematical scheme is implemented under the terrain-following coordinate.Meanwhile,new observation operators are developed for routine observational data,and the background error covariance is also obtained.Currently,the m3DVAR system can assimilate all routine observational data. Multi-variable idealized experiments with single point observations are performed to validate the m3DVAR system.The results show that the system can describe correctly the multi-variable analysis and the relationship of the physical constraints.The difference of innovation and the analysis residual forπalso show that the analysis error of the m3DVAR is smaller than that of the p3DVAR.The T s scores of precipitation forecasts in August 2006 indicate that the m3DVAR system provides reduced errors in the model initial value than the p3DVAR system.Therefore,the m3DVAR system can improve the analysis quality and initial value for numerical weather predictions.

The Effects of Terrain Slope and Orientation on Different Weather Processes in China under Different Model Resolutions

Currently, short horizontal surface wave radiation at the ground surface （GSW） is calculated under the assumption of a This method of estimating the GSW may lead to considerable errors when the model resolution becomes higher and the model terrain becomes steeper. In this paper, to improve the short wave solar radiation simulations, a terrain slope and orientation parameterization has been implemented into the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GRAPES （Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）. The effects of the terrain slope and orientation on different short range weather processes in China under different model resolutions are simulated and discussed. In the simulations, topography height is taken from NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） with a resolution of 1 km, and the slope and orientation of terrain are calculated using different staggering schemes and under different weather conditions. The results show that when the model resolution is low （30 and 60 km） and the slope of terrain is not large, the influence of the slope and orientation of terrain on the GSW is not evident; otherwise, however, it is not negligible. Under high model resolutions （3 and 6 km）, the increase （decrease） of simulated precipitation corresponds to the decrease （increase） of the GSW induced by the slope effect, and the variations of precipitation are usually ranged between -5 and 5 ram. Under the high resolution, the surface temperature and heat fluxes are strongly correlated to each other and the high correlation exists mostly in the complex terrain regions. The changes of the GSW, precipitation, surface temperature, and heat fluxes induced by the effects of the terrain slope and orientation are more obvious in mountainous regions, due to the alternations in the atmospheric circulation. It is found as well that under the weather condition of less cloud and less precipitation, the effects of the terrain slope and orientation can be more realistically seen. Therefore, the terrain slope and orientation can usually be neglected in numerical models when the horizontal model resolution is low and the slopes are moderate, but should be taken into account when the model resolution becomes high and the terrain is steep and undulating.

A Lightning Activity Forecast Scheme Developed for Summer Thunderstorms in South China

Based on the relationship between lightning flash density and radar echoes and a statistical analysis using satellite and radar observations,a scheme was introduced into the mesoscale model GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）to forecast the cloud to ground（CC）flash activities.Because the relationship is a necessary but not sufficient condition for lightning,an additional constraint condition related to temperature of cloud top is added into the scheme to determine whether the lightning activity really occurs.Only if the lightning activity meets the criterion to occur,the CG flash density in a grid is considered to be valid.This was proved to be necessary for reducing the false prediction.Two cases that occurred on the edge of the subtropical high in coastal regions of South China were simulated to examine the efficiency of the scheme.The results showed that the scheme was capable of forecasting lightning activities in South China.The simulated lightning areas agreed with the CG flash observations,and the CG flash density forecast by the model was also consistent with observational results in magnitude.In consideration of the forecast aging of the explicit cloud microphysical scheme in GRAPES,lightning activities can now be forecast accurately within 6 h.