Economics is a science that studies how the economy grows,so the theory of economic growth is the most important theory of economics.In the real market economy society,people achieve the goal of economic growth throug...Economics is a science that studies how the economy grows,so the theory of economic growth is the most important theory of economics.In the real market economy society,people achieve the goal of economic growth through two kinds of economic activities:production and transaction.Then a correct economic growth theory must be one that can explain both production and transaction economic activities.Just like Newton’s law of universal gravitation in physics,it can explain the motion law of all objects.For a long time,we have been dominated by the western economic growth theory of western mainstream economics.It is not difficult to find that it has a fatal defect,which can only explain production economic activities but not transaction economic activities.So it can’t explain the Chinese economy,and it can’t explain the western economy.The new economic growth theory proposed in this paper makes up for the defects of western economic growth theory,and it is the terminator of western economic growth theory.This is a revolution of new economics to traditional western economics.展开更多
In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth...In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.展开更多
This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysi...This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR timespace compression as well as the city neighboring ejfects on economic growth.It is found that HSRs efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn:(i)China needs tofurther reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii)China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(Hi)China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.展开更多
The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model ...The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.展开更多
文摘Economics is a science that studies how the economy grows,so the theory of economic growth is the most important theory of economics.In the real market economy society,people achieve the goal of economic growth through two kinds of economic activities:production and transaction.Then a correct economic growth theory must be one that can explain both production and transaction economic activities.Just like Newton’s law of universal gravitation in physics,it can explain the motion law of all objects.For a long time,we have been dominated by the western economic growth theory of western mainstream economics.It is not difficult to find that it has a fatal defect,which can only explain production economic activities but not transaction economic activities.So it can’t explain the Chinese economy,and it can’t explain the western economy.The new economic growth theory proposed in this paper makes up for the defects of western economic growth theory,and it is the terminator of western economic growth theory.This is a revolution of new economics to traditional western economics.
文摘In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.
基金This research was fnancially supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.18ZDA005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71673033 and 71573077).
文摘This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR timespace compression as well as the city neighboring ejfects on economic growth.It is found that HSRs efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn:(i)China needs tofurther reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii)China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(Hi)China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.
文摘The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.
