Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate...Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.展开更多
文章基于CMIP5的40个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models or General Circulation Models,GCM)模拟数据以及渭河流域13个气象站逐月降水数据,利用多指标的打分法,评估GCM对研究区年模拟降水的性能。结果表明:①在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排...文章基于CMIP5的40个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models or General Circulation Models,GCM)模拟数据以及渭河流域13个气象站逐月降水数据,利用多指标的打分法,评估GCM对研究区年模拟降水的性能。结果表明:①在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下,选出3个降水模拟较好的模式(RCP4.5情景下:MRI-CGCM3、CMCC-CM、IPSL-CM5A-MR;RCP8.5情景下:MRI-CGCM3、EC-EARTH、HadGEM2-CC);②在年尺度上,除MRI-CGCM3模式外,其余GCM模式模拟的结果偏高;③在月尺度上,IPSL-CM5A-MR模式模拟的月平均降水量的效果最好;④在季节尺度上,RCP4.5情景下FGOALS-s2模式与RCP8.5情景下,CESM1(WACCM)模式和BNU-ESM模式模拟的时空分布与实测结果最接近,具有较好的性能。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130405)the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province(R2020SC04)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA2006030201)the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150410381).
文摘Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.
文摘文章基于CMIP5的40个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models or General Circulation Models,GCM)模拟数据以及渭河流域13个气象站逐月降水数据,利用多指标的打分法,评估GCM对研究区年模拟降水的性能。结果表明:①在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下,选出3个降水模拟较好的模式(RCP4.5情景下:MRI-CGCM3、CMCC-CM、IPSL-CM5A-MR;RCP8.5情景下:MRI-CGCM3、EC-EARTH、HadGEM2-CC);②在年尺度上,除MRI-CGCM3模式外,其余GCM模式模拟的结果偏高;③在月尺度上,IPSL-CM5A-MR模式模拟的月平均降水量的效果最好;④在季节尺度上,RCP4.5情景下FGOALS-s2模式与RCP8.5情景下,CESM1(WACCM)模式和BNU-ESM模式模拟的时空分布与实测结果最接近,具有较好的性能。
