Given the challenge of estimating or calculating quantities of waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE)in developing countries,this article focuses on predicting the WEEE generated by Cameroonian small and medi...Given the challenge of estimating or calculating quantities of waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE)in developing countries,this article focuses on predicting the WEEE generated by Cameroonian small and medium enterprises(SMEs)that are engaged in ISO 14001:2015 initiatives and consume electrical and electronic equipment(EEE)to enhance their performance and profitability.The methodology employed an exploratory approach involving the application of general equilibrium theory(GET)to contextualize the study and generate relevant parameters for deploying the random forest regression learning algorithm for predictions.Machine learning was applied to 80%of the samples for training,while simulation was conducted on the remaining 20%of samples based on quantities of EEE utilized over a specific period,utilization rates,repair rates,and average lifespans.The results demonstrate that the model’s predicted values are significantly close to the actual quantities of generated WEEE,and the model’s performance was evaluated using the mean squared error(MSE)and yielding satisfactory results.Based on this model,both companies and stakeholders can set realistic objectives for managing companies’WEEE,fostering sustainable socio-environmental practices.展开更多
This paper proposes and illustrates an AI embedded object-oriented methodology to formulate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In this framework, a CGE model is viewed as a collection of objects embedd...This paper proposes and illustrates an AI embedded object-oriented methodology to formulate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In this framework, a CGE model is viewed as a collection of objects embedded AI or namely agents in computer world, corresponding to economic agents and entities in real world, such as government, households, markets and so on. A frame representation of major objects in CGE model is used for trade and environment. Embedded Al object-oriented approach (or software agent) is used in the CGE model representation can able to narrow the gap among the semantic representation, formal CGE (mathematical) representation and computer and algorithm representation, and to improve CGE in understanding and maintenance etc. In such a system, constructing a CGE model to appear an intuitive process rather than an abstract process. This intuitive process needs more understanding of the substance of economics and the logic underlying the problem rather than mathematical notation.展开更多
[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constr...[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System (DSS). The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers' income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.展开更多
The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China's regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Sim...The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China's regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results show that: industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.展开更多
There are currently two commonly used approaches to assessing economic impacts of health damage resulting from environmental pollution: human capital approach (HCA) and willingness-to-pay (WTP). WTP can be furthe...There are currently two commonly used approaches to assessing economic impacts of health damage resulting from environmental pollution: human capital approach (HCA) and willingness-to-pay (WTP). WTP can be further divided into averted expenditure approach (AEA), hedonlc wage approach (HWA), contingent valuation approach (CVA) and hedonlc price approach (HPA). A general review of the principles behind these approaches by the authors indicates that these methods are incapable of unveiling the mechanism of health impact from the point of view of national economy. On a basis of economic system, the shocks brought about by health effects of environmental pollution change the labor supply and medical expenditure, which in turn affects the level of production activity in each sector and the total final consumption pattern of the society. The general equilibrium approach within the framework of macroeconomic theory is able to estimate the health impact on national economy comprehensively and objectively. Its mechanism and applicability are discussed in detail by the authors.展开更多
The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the e...The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.展开更多
Under the framework of a real Hilbert space, we introduce a new iterative method for finding a common element of the set of solution of a general equilibrium problem and the set of fixed points of a nonexpansive semig...Under the framework of a real Hilbert space, we introduce a new iterative method for finding a common element of the set of solution of a general equilibrium problem and the set of fixed points of a nonexpansive semigroup. Moreover, a numerical example is presented. This example grantee the main result of the paper.展开更多
This paper shows existence and efficiency of equilibria of a production model with uncertainty, where production is modeled in the demand function of the consumer. Existence and efficiency of equilibria are a direct c...This paper shows existence and efficiency of equilibria of a production model with uncertainty, where production is modeled in the demand function of the consumer. Existence and efficiency of equilibria are a direct consequence of the catastrophe map being smooth and proper. Topological properties of the equilibrium set are studied. It is shown that the equilibrium set has the structure of a smooth submanifold of the Euclidean space which is diffeomorphic to the sphere implying connectedness, simple connectedness, and contractibility. The set of economies with discontinuous price systems is shown to be of Lebesgue measure zero.展开更多
Using the principle of analytical geometry, several properties of the space straight lille are proved. Based on these properties, the equilibrium of general space force system is considered and its four new scalar-typ...Using the principle of analytical geometry, several properties of the space straight lille are proved. Based on these properties, the equilibrium of general space force system is considered and its four new scalar-type equilibrium equations are derived which are equivalent to the vector-type necessary and sufficient conditions far equilibrium.展开更多
This paper examines the existence of general equilibrium in a discrete time economy with the infinite horizon incomplete markets.There is a single good at each node in the event tree.The existence of general equilibri...This paper examines the existence of general equilibrium in a discrete time economy with the infinite horizon incomplete markets.There is a single good at each node in the event tree.The existence of general equilibrium for the infinite horizon economy is proved by taking limit of equilibria in truncated economies in which trade stops at a sequence of dates.展开更多
This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation...This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.展开更多
Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on Chin...Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.展开更多
The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change o...The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.展开更多
Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local...Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.展开更多
We analyze an infinite horizon difference game between four aggregated industries-production of producer goods, production of consumption goods, federation of labor unions, and commercial banking sector. Consumers do ...We analyze an infinite horizon difference game between four aggregated industries-production of producer goods, production of consumption goods, federation of labor unions, and commercial banking sector. Consumers do not behave strategically. They make their decisions on the basis of maximization of average discounted utility. Therefore, we do not include them in the set of players in the game. The payoffof each production industry and the commercial banking sector is equal to the average discounted sum of real dividends of its owners. The payoff of the federation of labor unions is equal to the average discounted sum of real wages and real unemployment benefits. A strict strong perfect general equilibrium is the applied solution concept for the game. It requires that there does not exist a coalition of players that can weakly Pareto improve the vector of continuation payoffs of its members in some subgame by a coordinated deviation. It is a refinement of Rubinstein's concept of a strong perfect equilibrium. We formulate and prove the sufficient condition for its existence. It is based on the assumption that no one of the aggregated industries can have a positive output without using some minimal amount of output of each other aggregated industry as an input. By definition, in each subgame, the equilibrium payoff vector in a strict strong perfect general equilibrium is strictly Pareto efficient. Thus, if each consumer either has only income from wage and unemployment benefit or receives dividend from only one aggregated industry, and his nominal income in each period along the equilibrium path exceeds social minimum, it is not possible to weakly Pareto improve the vector of consumers' average discounted real incomes. This holds not only for the whole game but also for each subgame starting in the first phase of some period.展开更多
The stringency of environmental policy is likely to change the gains of economic agents. Using a general equilibrium model and an assumption that capital-intensive industries tend to be intensive emitters of greenhous...The stringency of environmental policy is likely to change the gains of economic agents. Using a general equilibrium model and an assumption that capital-intensive industries tend to be intensive emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), we find that a stricter GHG emission scheme will reduce the rent for capital owners but increase the wage for workers. This effect could motivate capital owners or workers to oppose or support a stricter GHG policy. The paper also empirically assesses the model’s key assumption by using production input (capital stock and labor), output, and GHG emission data from U.S industrial sectors. The regression result supports a strong positive relationship between the capital-labor ratio and the pollution-output ratio. Therefore, the theoretical analysis is relevant to the actual economy.展开更多
In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment mo...In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model (known as GTAP-E) for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam's economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.展开更多
The resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) and a decision-making model based on multi-agent systems (MAS) and general equilibrium marketing are proposed. An algorithm leading to the resource allocatio...The resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) and a decision-making model based on multi-agent systems (MAS) and general equilibrium marketing are proposed. An algorithm leading to the resource allocation decision involved in RCPSP has also been developed. And this algorithm can be used in the multi-project scheduling field as well.Finally, an illustration is given.展开更多
With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaste...With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.展开更多
Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncer...Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncertainty of agricultural development.Therefore,applying a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study characterises the agricultural sector in detail,introducing endogenous technological change proxied by research and development(R&D)to assess the impact of different technological change scenarios on agricultural development under the carbon neutrality target.The results show that allocating carbon revenue for R&D inputs can mitigate the significant negative impact of achieving carbon neutrality on knowledge capital and production in agricultural sectors.Overall,using carbon revenue only for R&D input in crop sectors has the optimal effect on increasing the agricultural sectors'knowledge capital,improving crop production and profit,reducing crop external dependence and promoting the synergistic reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions.However,this scenario has the largest negative impact on macro-economics and household welfare.In contrast,allocating carbon revenue to promote technological change in broader non-energy sectors or both crops and non-energy sectors can effectively mitigate negative socio-economic impacts,but the positive impact on agricultural development is minimal.These findings provide practical insights for the rational use of carbon revenue to expand agricultural R&D investment and ensure balanced agricultural and economic development under the carbon neutrality target.展开更多
文摘Given the challenge of estimating or calculating quantities of waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE)in developing countries,this article focuses on predicting the WEEE generated by Cameroonian small and medium enterprises(SMEs)that are engaged in ISO 14001:2015 initiatives and consume electrical and electronic equipment(EEE)to enhance their performance and profitability.The methodology employed an exploratory approach involving the application of general equilibrium theory(GET)to contextualize the study and generate relevant parameters for deploying the random forest regression learning algorithm for predictions.Machine learning was applied to 80%of the samples for training,while simulation was conducted on the remaining 20%of samples based on quantities of EEE utilized over a specific period,utilization rates,repair rates,and average lifespans.The results demonstrate that the model’s predicted values are significantly close to the actual quantities of generated WEEE,and the model’s performance was evaluated using the mean squared error(MSE)and yielding satisfactory results.Based on this model,both companies and stakeholders can set realistic objectives for managing companies’WEEE,fostering sustainable socio-environmental practices.
文摘This paper proposes and illustrates an AI embedded object-oriented methodology to formulate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In this framework, a CGE model is viewed as a collection of objects embedded AI or namely agents in computer world, corresponding to economic agents and entities in real world, such as government, households, markets and so on. A frame representation of major objects in CGE model is used for trade and environment. Embedded Al object-oriented approach (or software agent) is used in the CGE model representation can able to narrow the gap among the semantic representation, formal CGE (mathematical) representation and computer and algorithm representation, and to improve CGE in understanding and maintenance etc. In such a system, constructing a CGE model to appear an intuitive process rather than an abstract process. This intuitive process needs more understanding of the substance of economics and the logic underlying the problem rather than mathematical notation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70133011)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System (DSS). The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers' income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.
基金supported by National Natural Sci- ence Foundation of China(No.71173212,41101556 and 71203215)the President Fund of GUCAS(No Y1510RY00)
文摘The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China's regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results show that: industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.
基金This study is an international collaboration project between Energy Research Institute, China and National Institute for EnvironmentalStudies, Japan.
文摘There are currently two commonly used approaches to assessing economic impacts of health damage resulting from environmental pollution: human capital approach (HCA) and willingness-to-pay (WTP). WTP can be further divided into averted expenditure approach (AEA), hedonlc wage approach (HWA), contingent valuation approach (CVA) and hedonlc price approach (HPA). A general review of the principles behind these approaches by the authors indicates that these methods are incapable of unveiling the mechanism of health impact from the point of view of national economy. On a basis of economic system, the shocks brought about by health effects of environmental pollution change the labor supply and medical expenditure, which in turn affects the level of production activity in each sector and the total final consumption pattern of the society. The general equilibrium approach within the framework of macroeconomic theory is able to estimate the health impact on national economy comprehensively and objectively. Its mechanism and applicability are discussed in detail by the authors.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China:[Grant Number2012CB955800]the National Natural Science Foundation(863 Program)of China:[Grant Number 2012 AA063101]the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[Grant Number XDB05050200]
文摘The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.
基金IKIU,for supporting this research(Grant No.751168-91)
文摘Under the framework of a real Hilbert space, we introduce a new iterative method for finding a common element of the set of solution of a general equilibrium problem and the set of fixed points of a nonexpansive semigroup. Moreover, a numerical example is presented. This example grantee the main result of the paper.
文摘This paper shows existence and efficiency of equilibria of a production model with uncertainty, where production is modeled in the demand function of the consumer. Existence and efficiency of equilibria are a direct consequence of the catastrophe map being smooth and proper. Topological properties of the equilibrium set are studied. It is shown that the equilibrium set has the structure of a smooth submanifold of the Euclidean space which is diffeomorphic to the sphere implying connectedness, simple connectedness, and contractibility. The set of economies with discontinuous price systems is shown to be of Lebesgue measure zero.
文摘Using the principle of analytical geometry, several properties of the space straight lille are proved. Based on these properties, the equilibrium of general space force system is considered and its four new scalar-type equilibrium equations are derived which are equivalent to the vector-type necessary and sufficient conditions far equilibrium.
基金This research was supported by a project of Financial MathematicsFinancial Engineering and Finan-cial Managementwhich is o
文摘This paper examines the existence of general equilibrium in a discrete time economy with the infinite horizon incomplete markets.There is a single good at each node in the event tree.The existence of general equilibrium for the infinite horizon economy is proved by taking limit of equilibria in truncated economies in which trade stops at a sequence of dates.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41101556,71173212,71203215)
文摘This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.
基金financial support from the Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China(Project No.18YJAZH138)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71403163)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20BJL036).
文摘Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.
文摘The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.
文摘Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.
文摘We analyze an infinite horizon difference game between four aggregated industries-production of producer goods, production of consumption goods, federation of labor unions, and commercial banking sector. Consumers do not behave strategically. They make their decisions on the basis of maximization of average discounted utility. Therefore, we do not include them in the set of players in the game. The payoffof each production industry and the commercial banking sector is equal to the average discounted sum of real dividends of its owners. The payoff of the federation of labor unions is equal to the average discounted sum of real wages and real unemployment benefits. A strict strong perfect general equilibrium is the applied solution concept for the game. It requires that there does not exist a coalition of players that can weakly Pareto improve the vector of continuation payoffs of its members in some subgame by a coordinated deviation. It is a refinement of Rubinstein's concept of a strong perfect equilibrium. We formulate and prove the sufficient condition for its existence. It is based on the assumption that no one of the aggregated industries can have a positive output without using some minimal amount of output of each other aggregated industry as an input. By definition, in each subgame, the equilibrium payoff vector in a strict strong perfect general equilibrium is strictly Pareto efficient. Thus, if each consumer either has only income from wage and unemployment benefit or receives dividend from only one aggregated industry, and his nominal income in each period along the equilibrium path exceeds social minimum, it is not possible to weakly Pareto improve the vector of consumers' average discounted real incomes. This holds not only for the whole game but also for each subgame starting in the first phase of some period.
文摘The stringency of environmental policy is likely to change the gains of economic agents. Using a general equilibrium model and an assumption that capital-intensive industries tend to be intensive emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), we find that a stricter GHG emission scheme will reduce the rent for capital owners but increase the wage for workers. This effect could motivate capital owners or workers to oppose or support a stricter GHG policy. The paper also empirically assesses the model’s key assumption by using production input (capital stock and labor), output, and GHG emission data from U.S industrial sectors. The regression result supports a strong positive relationship between the capital-labor ratio and the pollution-output ratio. Therefore, the theoretical analysis is relevant to the actual economy.
文摘In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model (known as GTAP-E) for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam's economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.
文摘The resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) and a decision-making model based on multi-agent systems (MAS) and general equilibrium marketing are proposed. An algorithm leading to the resource allocation decision involved in RCPSP has also been developed. And this algorithm can be used in the multi-project scheduling field as well.Finally, an illustration is given.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42177448 and 41907393)。
文摘With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.72204234,72074022]the National Social Science Foundation of China[Grant No.22AZD094]the project for Carbon Neutral General Knowledge Course Construction of China University of Geosciences.
文摘Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncertainty of agricultural development.Therefore,applying a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study characterises the agricultural sector in detail,introducing endogenous technological change proxied by research and development(R&D)to assess the impact of different technological change scenarios on agricultural development under the carbon neutrality target.The results show that allocating carbon revenue for R&D inputs can mitigate the significant negative impact of achieving carbon neutrality on knowledge capital and production in agricultural sectors.Overall,using carbon revenue only for R&D input in crop sectors has the optimal effect on increasing the agricultural sectors'knowledge capital,improving crop production and profit,reducing crop external dependence and promoting the synergistic reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions.However,this scenario has the largest negative impact on macro-economics and household welfare.In contrast,allocating carbon revenue to promote technological change in broader non-energy sectors or both crops and non-energy sectors can effectively mitigate negative socio-economic impacts,but the positive impact on agricultural development is minimal.These findings provide practical insights for the rational use of carbon revenue to expand agricultural R&D investment and ensure balanced agricultural and economic development under the carbon neutrality target.