Background:Several countries used varied degrees of social isolation measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.In 2021,the lockdown in Thailand began on July 20 and lasted for the following six weeks.The lockdown ...Background:Several countries used varied degrees of social isolation measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.In 2021,the lockdown in Thailand began on July 20 and lasted for the following six weeks.The lockdown has extremely detrimental effects on the economy and society,even though it may reduce the number of COVID-19 instances.Our goals are to assess the impact of the lockdown policy,the commencement time of lockdown,and the vaccination rate on the number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand in 2021.Methods:We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 in Thailand throughout 2021 using the SEIR model.The Google Mobility Index,vaccine distribution rate,and lockdown were added to the model.The Google Mobility Index represents the movement of individuals during a pandemic and shows how people react to lockdown.The model also examines the effect of vaccination rate on the incidence of COVID-19.Results:The modeling approach demonstrates that a 6-week lockdown decreases the incidence number of COVID-19 by approximately 15.49e18.17%,depending on the timing of the lockdown compared to a non-lockdown scenario.An increasing vaccination rate potentially reduce the incidence number of COVID-19 by 5.12e18.35%without launching a lockdown.Conclusion:Lockdowns can be an effective method to slow down the spread of COVID-19 when the vaccination program is not fully functional.When the vaccines are easily accessible on a large scale,the lockdown may terminated.展开更多
The outbreak of COVID-19 disrupts the life of many people in the world.In response to this global pandemic,various institutions across the globe had soon issued their prevention guidelines.Governments in the US had al...The outbreak of COVID-19 disrupts the life of many people in the world.In response to this global pandemic,various institutions across the globe had soon issued their prevention guidelines.Governments in the US had also implemented social distancing policies.However,those policies,which were designed to slow the spread of COVID-19,and its compliance,have varied across the states,which led to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 spread.This paper aims to propose a spatio-temporal model for quantifying compliance with the US COVID-19 mitigation policies at a regional level.To achieve this goal,a specific partial differential equation(PDE)is developed and validated with shortterm predictions.The proposed model describes the combined effects of transboundary spread among state clusters in the US and human mobilities on the transmission of COVID-19.The model can help inform policymakers as they decide how to react to future outbreaks.展开更多
基金Thailand Science Research and Innovation(TSRI)National Science,Research and Innovation Fund(NSRF).Funding number 2492895This research is financially supported by Thailand Science Research and Innovation(TSRI),National Science,Research and Innovation Fund(NSRF)(Fiscal Year 2022).
文摘Background:Several countries used varied degrees of social isolation measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.In 2021,the lockdown in Thailand began on July 20 and lasted for the following six weeks.The lockdown has extremely detrimental effects on the economy and society,even though it may reduce the number of COVID-19 instances.Our goals are to assess the impact of the lockdown policy,the commencement time of lockdown,and the vaccination rate on the number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand in 2021.Methods:We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 in Thailand throughout 2021 using the SEIR model.The Google Mobility Index,vaccine distribution rate,and lockdown were added to the model.The Google Mobility Index represents the movement of individuals during a pandemic and shows how people react to lockdown.The model also examines the effect of vaccination rate on the incidence of COVID-19.Results:The modeling approach demonstrates that a 6-week lockdown decreases the incidence number of COVID-19 by approximately 15.49e18.17%,depending on the timing of the lockdown compared to a non-lockdown scenario.An increasing vaccination rate potentially reduce the incidence number of COVID-19 by 5.12e18.35%without launching a lockdown.Conclusion:Lockdowns can be an effective method to slow down the spread of COVID-19 when the vaccination program is not fully functional.When the vaccines are easily accessible on a large scale,the lockdown may terminated.
基金The research was partially supported by the GPSA Publication Grant from Arizona State University.
文摘The outbreak of COVID-19 disrupts the life of many people in the world.In response to this global pandemic,various institutions across the globe had soon issued their prevention guidelines.Governments in the US had also implemented social distancing policies.However,those policies,which were designed to slow the spread of COVID-19,and its compliance,have varied across the states,which led to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 spread.This paper aims to propose a spatio-temporal model for quantifying compliance with the US COVID-19 mitigation policies at a regional level.To achieve this goal,a specific partial differential equation(PDE)is developed and validated with shortterm predictions.The proposed model describes the combined effects of transboundary spread among state clusters in the US and human mobilities on the transmission of COVID-19.The model can help inform policymakers as they decide how to react to future outbreaks.
