The Study on Multinational Operation Risk-Defense System Based on Corporate Governance Mechanism

：With the unceasing globalization development of MNCs＇ business and connnuous intensify in international competition, the managers of MNCs find that the strategy decisions they are faced on are becoming more complicated, and they have deeply realized that the perception and defense of the international risk has the impact on their strategy decisions. The thesis, proceeding with analyzing and evaluating risk types in the course of enterprises developing in the international markets, based on the integration international risk perception model, utilizing relative theories and study thoughts of the corporate governance mechanisms, especially the relative studies on overseas enterprises＇ governance mechanisms, explores how to use the corporate governance mechanisms to build the defense system against international risks. Meanwhile, the thesis further discusses the risks our native enterprises have suffered from during the multinational operation in detail, explores its reasons and offers the defense measures of all sorts of risk.

Participatory Risk Governance for Seoul,South Korea's Flood Risk Management

Risk governance is a widely used framework in natural and societal risk management research.Risks from natural hazards in urban areas call for the establishment of rigorous and participatory urban risk governance.In this study,we examined participatory risk governance(PRG)of flood risk management(FRM)in Seoul,South Korea.We conducted key informant interviews and implemented a survey with citizens,to explore perceptions of flood risks and risk management,and to examine prospects for improving PRG in Seoul.We found a gap between the perceptions of key informants and citizens.Key informants believed that citizens'low awareness of flood risks hinders PRG.Yet our research found that citizens'risk awareness was not low,and risk awareness may not be the main barrier to participation in PRG.Instead,we found that citizens lacked knowledge of FRM actions,and they assigned government bodies a high level of responsibility for FRM,compared to the level of responsibility that citizens assigned to themselves.Moreover,the actors involved in FRM tended not to trust each other,which implies a lack of mutual understanding.To increase the eff ectiveness of PRG,we suggest a polycentric governance structure anchored by a leading actor group,and active promotion of the participation of actors at multiple levels of governance.Communication between government and citizen participants,designed to foster improved understanding and recognition of one another's roles and contributions to FRM,will enhance trust and improve the implementation of PRG in Seoul.

Governance of Violence Risk in Patients with Severe Mental Disorders:From a Case of a Schizophrenic’s Filicide

Schizophrenia is a chronic,prolonged illness with a significant tendency to relapse and a high disease burden.Patients are often affected by psychotic symptoms and commit violent assaults that manifest as criminal acts.At the same time,such patients generally have poor medication adherence,which also makes them more likely to commit crimes.In our case,a single mother with a history of psychiatric illness strangled her 4-year-old biological son to death with a rope,put the body in a bathtub and divided it,ate some of the victim’s organs;the results of her forensic mental health identification indicated she was in a period of illness at the time of the offense and did not have the competence for criminal responsibility.Medication adherence is an important factor affecting relapse in patients with schizophrenia.Although new medications have been introduced and researchers have been improving medication adherence through many ways such as patient education and family therapy since the 1980s,the level of medication adherence is still poor,with a nonadherence rate of about 50%.This report suggests that in practice,attention should be given to improving patients’medication adherence,guardians of patients and their communities should strengthen their monitoring and care,including knowing the patients’medication adherence and monitoring them to take their medication as prescribed,together with systematic psychotherapy for patients to prevent them from relapsing and committing violent attacks.Besides,when assessing the patient’s risk of violence,the realistic factors in crime motives and the impact of guardians(family)should be taken into account to evaluate the risk of violence objectively and comprehensively.A final point is that social support for patients with mental disorders and their families should be improved.

工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控综述

本文阐述工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控发展,介绍工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控架构,详细剖析工业控制系统现场设备层、现场控制层、过程监控层、制造执行系统(MES)层、企业管理层等各层信息安全软件与监控,并对工业控制系统信息安全软件与监控趋势进行分析。

Stakeholder and Public Involvement in Risk Governance

Stakeholder involvement has been a major requirement for effective, efficient, and fair risk governance.Since risk management includes uncertain outcomes that affect different parts of the population to different degrees it is essential to integrate the knowledge, values, and interests of stakeholders into the risk policy making process.The article provides insights into how to structure and organize stakeholder participation and how to cope with the challenges of complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity. For each of the three challenges there is a need for specific input from stakeholders. The article describes these requirements and explains the formats that have been tested for providing this input to the risk governance process.

A New Method for Resource Allocation Optimization in Disaster Reduction and Risk Governance

How to allocate and use resources play a crucial role in disaster reduction and risk governance(DRRG).The challenge comes largely from two aspects: the resources available for allocation are usually limited in quantity; and the multiple stakeholders involved in DRRG often have conflicting interests in the allocation of these limited resources. Therefore resource allocation in DRRG can be formulated as a constrained multiobjective optimization problem(MOOP). The Pareto front is a key concept in resolving a MOOP, and it is associated with the complete set of optimal solutions. However, most existing methods for solving a MOOPs only calculate a part or an approximation of the Pareto front, and thus can hardly provide the most effective or accurate support to decisionmakers in DRRG. This article introduces a new method whose goal is to find the complete Pareto front that resolves the resource allocation optimization problem in DRRG.The theoretical conditions needed to guarantee finding a complete Pareto front are given and a practicable, ripplespreading algorithm is developed to calculate the complete Pareto front. A resource allocation problem of risk governance in agriculture is then used as a case study to test the applicability and reliability of the proposed method. The results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency when compared with traditional methods.

Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

Within the hazard and disaster risk research field, explicitly treating carbon emissions as a hazard remains rather nascent. Applying hazard and disaster risk research perspectives to seek new insights on integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches and policy measures is equally elusive. Since China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the ‘‘dual carbon” goals of carbon emission peaking and neutrality have stimulated nationwide attention, research, and policies and action plans.How to ensure that the transition pathways are on track and well-contextualized is one of the crucial challenges for policymakers and practitioners. This article examines the‘‘risks” of missing the carbon neutrality goal at a regional scale in China, denoted as Carbon Emission Risk(CER).Carbon emissions(CE) as hazard, combined with the human socioeconomic system as exposure and human living environment, constitute the regional carbon emission environmental risk system. The ‘‘risks” of missing(or achieving) the carbon neutrality target for any region at any time, the article argues, is essentially determined by the ratio of CE to carbon absorption(CA, for uptake and removal). These variables are modified by a broadly defined ‘‘vulnerability coefficient”(Cv) that embodies both the potential for changes(decreasing CE and increasing CA), and the uncertainties of measuring CE and CA. Thus,the ratio of CE to CA is a measure of reality at any moment of time, whereas Cv indicates the overall propensity or capacity for moving the CE/CA ratio towards 1, that is,realizing carbon neutrality. Based on our calculation, CER at the provincial level in eastern China is higher than in western China. The article also calls for strengthening CER research and summarizes key measures for carbon emission risk governance.

Disaster Risk Governance as Assemblage: The Chilean Framework of the 1985 San Antonio Earthquake

The purpose of this article is to analyze disaster risk governance through assemblage theory, identifying how-during the altered political context of a military regime with a centralized disaster risk management as in the case of Chile in 1985-new actors emerge during the disaster response phase as a de/reterritorialization effect that is influenced by their agencies and relationships, disfiguring the edges of the assemblage. Based on this conceptualization, it is possible to investigate the interactions between the different actors, their power relations, and their reconfigurations in the governance exercise. For this purpose, we reviewed the response phase of the 1985 San Antonio earthquake that affected the central zone of Chile, where strategic functions, institutions, and forms of power are concentrated.To describe and visualize the actors during the response phase in the disaster risk governance framework, a map of actors was developed that identifies the existing relationships and their different weights. The central scale proved to be dominant and occupied a political space that was transfigured by its overrepresentation-enforced by allies such as the banking system and business associations-enhancing a neoliberal agenda. The leaps in scale from the central scale to the local scale cancel agency of the last, destabilizing its capacity to deal with the effects of the earthquake and isolating it from the decision-making processes. Consequently,delays in providing aid demonstrate that authoritarian governments do not provide better management in the disaster response phase.

Green Development and Integrated Risk Governance

The‘‘International Symposium on Integrated Governance of Large-scale Disaster and Economic Risks’’was held in Qianhai,Shenzhen,China on 13–14 May 2017.The Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Educa-

Risk Governance,Assessment,and Economic Impacts

Due to climate change,growing urbanization,and population migration the social and economic impacts of natural hazards have been increasing worldwide.The challenge for risk science,both methodologically and conceptually,is to integrate robust multi-hazard evaluation models with

The Governance of Local Government Debt from the Perspective of Fiscal and Financial Coordination:Evidence from Financial Markets

Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.

Mainstreaming Decentralization and Collaboration in Disaster Risk Management:Insights from Coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is renowned in disaster risk reduction(DRR)for active involvement of community people and local disaster management institutions in DRR activities.Our study aimed to describe the disaster risk management(DRM)institutions and assess their functioning in six coastal unions across the three coastal zones of Bangladesh.Both qualitative and quantitative research approaches were used.The study focused on two key local institutions—the Union Disaster Management Committees(UDMCs)and the Cyclone Preparedness Program(CPP)—functioning at the union level in DRM.Such institutions have both horizontal and vertical collaborations with other institutions.However,we argue that the UDMCs'external dependencies in their functioning indicate their limited financial and administrative autonomy,which is a barrier to successfully institutionalizing disaster management.The results show that the CPP is the most successful program,markedly increasing the trust of the people in warning dissemination and evacuation efforts in the event of a cyclone.Although the adoption of decentralized risk management systems has resulted in significant progress in increased rate of evacuation and reduced death rate and damage,lack of funding and equipment,limited coordination between institutions,lack of skilled and knowledgeable workforce,and inappropriate power structures may reduce the effectiveness of DRR activities prior to,during,and following disasters.

Looking Back and Beyond Sendai:25 Years of International Policy Experience on Disaster Risk Reduction

The evolution in knowledge and application of disaster risk reduction in the 25 years of global cooperation on this issue has been uneven. While advances in knowledge have improved our understanding of the full nature of risk—the combination of hazards meeting vulnerability—the application of such knowledge has not been conducive to the development of institutional and technical mechanisms to address the full range of risk elements. Governance of risk(policies, legislation, and organizational arrangements) still focuses largely on preparing to respond to the hazards and planning for recovery. This leaves largely unattended the vulnerability component of risk, which is the only component on which change can be effected.Governance arrangements, risk assessments, early warning systems, and other institutional and technical capacities still concentrate on natural hazards and this is the main change that remains to be substantively addressed.

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?”An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recommends several actions for early warning systems(EWSs). However, there is a lack of information about their means of implementation. This article used institutional ethnography to analyze the 2012–2018 implementation of a national warning system in Brazil. The challenges related to daily activities, and the interdisciplinary works in the four axes of EWSs towards multi-hazard and people-centered approaches are discussed. This national experience is then discussed in the light of the global challenges of EWSs considering two main issues:(1) experiences of implementation and barriers related to people-centered warning systems;and(2)types of national/regional warning systems and hazards/threats that are being monitored as an important input for multi-hazard approaches. There are few multi-hazard warning systems in place and EWSs are focused on hydrometeorological hazards, mainly related to floods. The Sendai Framework needs to improve access to data and information, identify views from the frontline, consider political threats and vulnerabilities, and find ways to talk about disaster risk creation processes at a larger scale.

Insights on Chemical and Natech Risk Management in Japan and South Korea:A Review of Current Practices

A growing number of natural hazard-triggered technological accidents(Natech)has been reported by several researchers,and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change.As a result,some governments have initiated direct efforts to manage Natech risks,particularly in the United States and Europe.However,two surveys conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)in 2009 and 2017 found that there was a lack of proper risk management and risk governance for Natech among OECD member states,including Japan and South Korea.This study aimed to identify relevant regulations and practical considerations for chemical and Natech risk management from government perspectives in Japan and South Korea.The article provides a review of the current state of risk management,emergency response,and risk communication on chemical and Natech risk management in the two countries,and concludes with a discussion of some of the issues that require improvement of the current chemical risk management.Current practices for chemical risk management in Japan and South Korea point to the possibility of improvements in dealing with the Natech risks.These practical lessons will be valuable for improving the capacity for dealing with challenges in chemical and Natech risk management.

Beyond the Expected-Residual Risk and Cases of Overload in the Context of Managing Alpine Natural Hazards

Structural protection measures are designed to protect the population and infrastructure against natural hazards up to a specific predefined protection goal.Extreme events with intensities that exceed the capacity of these protection structures are called“cases of overload”and are associated with“residual risks”that remain after the implementation of protection measures.In order to address residual risks and to reduce the damages from overload events,a combination of structural protection measures with additional,nonstructural measures is required.Based on data collected through a literature review,a questionnaire survey,expert interviews,and an expert workshop we highlight the status quo as well as key challenges of dealing with residual risks and cases of overload in Alpine countries in the context of geohydrological hazards and gravitational mass movements.We present a holistic conceptual framework that describes the relationships of residual risks,cases of overload,and protection goals in the context of both risk governance and integrated risk management.This framework is valuable for decision makers aiming at an improved management of natural hazards that takes adequate account of residual risk and cases of overload in Alpine countries and mountain areas worldwide.

Credit Spreads,Probability of Default and Debt Risk Measurement of Prefectural Governments in China:2014-2017

In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.

Mainstreaming Early Warning Systems in Development and Planning Processes: Multilevel Implementation of Sendai Framework in Indus and Sahel

The third UN World Congress on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, agreed on a new framework to guide disaster risk reduction policy and practice for the next 15 years. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) leaves important implementation issues unspecified and potentially creates both problems and opportunities for complex,multilevel governance systems in coping with hazards and disastrous events. Early warning systems(EWS), if built into the mainstream of planning for development and disaster relief and recovery, could present a significant opportunity to realize many SFDRR goals. We explore the complexities of using hydrometeorological EWS to prepare for drought and flood disasters in the densely populated communities of Pakistan’s Indus River Basin in contrast to the African Sahel’s less densely settled grasslands. Multilevel governance systems are often dominated by a topdown, technocentric, centralized management bias and have great difficulty responding to the needs of peripheral and vulnerable populations. People-centered, bottom-up approaches that incorporate disaggregated communities with local knowledge into a balanced, multilevel disaster risk management and governance structure have adramatically better chance of realizing the SFDRR goals for disaster risk reduction.

A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas

Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation.However,little is known about the changes in exposure(for example,population and urban land)to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization,and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas.We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015,and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities.We found that more than two thirds of population growth(or 70%of total population in 2015)and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths(or 307,918 deaths)in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio(percentage of urban population to total population)between 20 and 60%.Holding other factors constant,population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities,while the area of urban land was negatively related.The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low,but after a ratio between 40 and 50%occurs,earthquake fatalities decline.This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation.Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050,more than 50%of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries(Pakistan,India,Afghanistan,and Bangladesh)that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes.To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities,enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority.