Analysis on Stability Factors of Grain Price in China

To make grain price stable is an important goal for the Chinese government. The paper compared the grain supply elasticity and demand elasticity to determine the grain price stability in China; used ＂k value＂ method to analyze the grain price fluctuation from 1985 to 2010; divided the grain price volatility into three stages; and analyzed the factors in each phase. On the base, it put forward some countermeasures to guarantee the stability of the grain price.

Soaring Grain Prices Raise Global Concerns

Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.

Grain Prices in China: a Review and Policy Proposals

Based on in-depth analysis of grain price fluctuations and their repercussions since 2003, this paper summarizes national grain price control measures undertaken in recent years, identifies their effects and remaining problems, and calls on relevant departments to pay close attention to current grain production and the grain market. Lastly, the paper puts forward policy proposals for making price regulation more predictive, directed and e ective.

Rising grain prices in response to phased climatic change during 1736–1850 in the North China Plain

Grain price volatility during historical periods is regarded as an important indicator of the impact of climate change on economic system, as well as a key link to adjust food security and social stability. The present study used the wheat prices in Baoding Prefecture, China, during 1736–1850 to explore connections between climatic transition and grain price anomalies in the North China Plain. The main findings were as follows:(1) The grain price change showed an apparent correspondence with climatic transition. The period 1781–1820 was a transition phase, with more extremes and decreased precipitations when the climate shifted from a warm phase to a cold one. Corresponding with the climatic transition, the grain price during 1781–1820 was characterized by that the mean of the original grain price series was significantly higher(lower) than the previous(later)phase, and the variance and anomaly amplitude of the detrended grain price series was the highest during 1736–1850.(2) The correspondence between grain price extremes and drought events occurred in phases. Five grain price extremes occurred following drought events during 1781–1810, while extreme droughts were the direct cause of the grain price spike during 1811–1820.(3) Social stability affected by climate change also played an important role in the grain price spike between 1811 and 1820. Paralleling the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price", climate change could have an impact on grain price via the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price-famine-uprising-grain price", as shown during the Tianli Uprising in 1813. These findings could contribute to an improved understanding of the interaction between climate change and human society during the historical period.

Causality of Future and Spot Grain Prices Between China and the US:Evidence from Soybean and Corn Markets Against the Surging Import Pressure

As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States(US) future market, Chinese domestic future market and Chinese spot markets. We find that the daily prices of all these three types of grains belong to I(1) series, and there are long-run integrations. Also Chinese soybean future prices adjust more quickly than its spot prices, while Chinese corn future prices adjust slower. This paper finds that the soybean price movement originates from the US future market, then passes through Chinese future market, and finally reaches Chinese spot market, while the corn price movement starts in Chinese spot market, then spreads to the future markets in both China and the US.Finally, this paper also provides some policy implications on how to release the pressure from the grain imports.

Establishment of Grain Farmers' Supply Response Model and Empirical Analysis under Minimum Grain Purchase Price Policy

Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory,this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas,to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive impact on farmers' grain supply in the major grain producing areas. In recent years,China steadily raises the level of minimum grain purchase price,which has played an important role in effectively protecting grain farmers' interests,mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers' grain production,and ensuring the market supply of key grain varieties.

China’s Price System Jeopardizes its Grain Reserves

2008 is a year of bumper harvest in summer grain across China. The failure of numerous state-owned grain depots to purchase grain in times of bumper harvest, however, directly threatens grain reserve security and state control over grain prices in the upcoming year. An important factor underpinning the difficulty of state grain depots to purchase grain is the unwillingness of farmers to sell grain due to the excess of the current market price over the government "protected price" aimed at preventing cheap grain from harming farmers. When grassroots grain depots find themselves in trouble, foreign capital stealthily moves in by taking advantage of this situation. To fulfill grain storage tasks and receive various state subsidies, some state-owned grain depots have no alternative but to surreptitiously raise the purchase price. By contrast, some not so courageous state-owned grain depots can only borrow money to finance the purchase of commodity grain at market prices and subsequently figure out a way to pay back such loans. Behind such distorted grain purchase behavior lies a rough and rugged history of grain price reform in China.

The Causes of Hiking Ethiopian Consumer Prices

A growing consumer price is creating instability in the macroeconomic environment and hinders the consumption level of especially the poor society.This paper then explored the major causes of such increasing consumer prices using Ethiopian cases.Using data from the National Bank of Ethiopia from 1982/1983 to 2019/2020,it condensed the information of monetary sector,external sector and fiscal sector variables to a small set to estimate the causes of Ethiopian consumer price hiking using the ARDL model.The factors determining consumer price differ from food to non-food.The most important factors determining food price are price expectation and fiscal factors.On the other hand,the main determinant of non-food consumer prices is the fiscal factor.The author also found evidence of fiscal factors and price expectation effects on general consumer prices.Therefore,to contain the rise in consumer prices,it needs to exercise conservative fiscal stances,which require minimizing deficit financing,reducing the import tax rate and reducing domestic indirect tax rates such as excise tax and value added tax on basic consumer goods and services.Moreover,sound government policies are essential to address inflation anticipations(providing information for society about the future of inflation)to change public opinion.

Study on Fluctuation of Grain Yield in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.

Influence of China's Grain Industrial Market Structure over Grain Pricing Power

From the point of view of industrial market structure,we analyze the influence of market structure on grain production,circulation,and processing,and on the grain pricing power of entities along China's grain industrial chain.Through analysis,it is indicated that different features of market structure play a significant role in pricing power of such microeconomic entities as farmers and grain enterprises in grain production and transaction.And the market structure determines welfare distribution model of consumers' surplus and producers' surplus at the market.

Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of China's Direct Grain Subsidies on Grain Yield--Based on the Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Pertaining to 29 Provinces in the Period 2004-2007

We build the influence function empirical model of China's grain production at the present stage in view of the factors influencing direct grain subsidies,using Cobb-Douglas production function model.And we estimate the elasticity coefficient of impact of China's direct grain subsidies on grain yield,using the panel data pertaining to 29 provinces in the period 2004-2007;comparatively analyze the validity and limitation of policy factors of direct grain subsidies on China's grain yield.The results show that at the present stage,the elasticity coefficient of impact of China's direct grain subsidies on grain yield is 0.002 3,and under the existing subsidy system and level,direct grain subsidies play a positive role in increasing grain yield,but the role is limited;the elasticity coefficient of impact of the food price on grain yield is much larger than that of impact of direct grain subsidies on grain yield.Therefore,the government should strengthen and improve direct grain subsidy policies;in the mean time,pay full attention to the use of market mechanism to consolidate the basic role of the food price in promoting food security to a great extent.

关于新时代提升经济增长率的几点思考

在建设中国特色社会主义新时代,为实现中国式现代化,有效提升国民经济增长率,需要做四个基本方面的思考:一是国家必须保护国内粮食市场,提高粮食价格使之与国际市场价格脱钩,建立国内合理的价格体系,直接提高农业经济对国民经济增长的贡献。二是努力提高工薪收入水平,从促进民营经济的工薪收入做起,进一步调整全社会劳动收入的分配比例,以此提升全体劳动者的消费水平,有力地促进国民经济增长。三是大力发展数字经济,向高科技要效益,在已经取得成就的基础上,更进一步提升国民经济发展水平。四是进一步深化改革开放,依靠世界劳动力市场,重点通过民营企业引进国外优质劳力,促进国民经济增长,解决我国严重老龄化和优质劳力不足的问题。

“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制

基于2009—2020年玉米主产省市域层面数据,采用DID模型和中介效应模型,探究“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制。研究表明:价补分离政策显著减少了玉米播种面积,提高了玉米单位面积产量,并降低了玉米总产量;价补分离政策对玉米生产的影响具有时效性,这一影响随时间推移而减弱;价补分离政策通过增加竞争作物种植比例来减少玉米播种面积,同时促进了粮食作物种植结构优化;价补分离政策通过增加农业机械化水平促进了玉米单产;玉米播种面积的负向效应大于玉米单产的正向效应,价补分离政策通过减少玉米播种面积,最终使玉米总产量降低。

我国粮食价格政策研究的反思与展望

我国粮食市场在价格“天花板”与成本“地板”的双重挤压下,其政策性矛盾日益积累,加之粮食补贴和国际贸易争端不断加剧,因此,探寻我国粮食价格政策的改革方向迫在眉睫。通过梳理国内外粮食价格政策的理论渊源、政策演进和实施效果以及粮食价格形成机制和影响因素等相关文献,发现国外粮食价格政策的研究对于解决我国的问题存在局限性,而国内相关研究多局限于定性分析,且以研究和评价价格政策绩效为主,对于调控政策如何实现市场与政府有效结合、如何配给财政资源以实现各参与主体效用最大化等研究相对不足。基于国家粮食安全新战略实施和粮食产业强国建设的背景,本文提出未来粮食价格政策研究应综合考虑粮食的双重属性,着眼于国内国际两个市场,充分发挥有效市场与有为政府相结合的优势,持续完善我国的粮食价格形成机制。

粮食价格支持政策与农业绿色增长:促进或抑制

既有文献罕见同时关注粮食价格支持政策的农业经济增长效应和农业环境效应。区别于以往单一维度的研究,本文把粮食价格支持政策、农业经济增长和农业环境污染同时纳入一个分析框架中,利用异时DID模型和中介效应模型,对粮食价格支持政策与农业绿色增长之间的因果关系及作用机制展开实证检验。研究发现:粮食价格支持政策抑制了农业绿色增长,且该结论具有较强的稳健性;粮食价格支持政策能够通过作物种植结构调整和农业劳动力转移两条路径削减单位面积农业化肥面源污染和减少单位面积农业产值,最终合力引致该政策负向影响农业绿色增长。进一步分析发现,在目前的农业生产模式下,粮食价格支持政策难以兼顾农业“增长”与“绿色”。此结论对进一步把握粮食价格支持政策的影响效应及推动农业绿色增长具有重要的政策参考价值。

粮食价格、政策补贴对农民种粮积极性的影响——基于演化博弈模型

构建农民、政府和第三方企业之间的演化博弈模型,从理论上分析了各方均衡决策下农民种粮积极性的演化稳定性,在此基础上利用个案数据进行仿真分析,仿真结果验证了理论分析结果。研究发现,农民的种粮积极性会随着粮食收购价格的波动而出现显著变化;单纯的种粮补贴无助于提升农民种粮积极性;同时过长时间的补贴可能会给农民、第三方企业带来更多不确定性因素。

我国饲料粮价格非对称性波动特征及其成因分析

文章基于我国30个省(市、自治区)饲料粮价格数据,采用TGARCH模型实证检验我国各地区饲料粮价格非对称性波动特征及其成因。结果表明,仅有7个省份饲料粮价格存在非对称波动,说明我国饲料粮价格波动不是普遍规律,而是个体属性;我国饲料粮价格非对称性特征具有区域异质性,黑龙江、吉林、河南和内蒙古的饲料粮价格存在负向非对称性波动,江苏、山东和广东的饲料粮价格存在正向非对称性波动;政策变动、自然灾害、技术等不规则因素变动是引发饲料粮价格非对称性波动的主要原因。因此,相关主体应提高饲料粮价格变动信息判断能力,采取差异化饲料粮价格调控措施,强化市场调控力度,有效调控饲料粮价格波动。

政策干预对国内外粮棉价格溢出效应的影响——基于进口规模快速增长背景

通过构建外生政策影响下的VAR-BEKK-MVGARCH-DUMMY模型,利用2000年1月至2021年12月的月度数据,分析了进口规模对玉米、棉花国内外价格溢出效应的影响,政策实施对玉米、大豆、棉花国内外价格溢出效应的影响。研究发现,进口规模扩大并未对玉米、棉花国内外价格溢出效应产生显著影响;不同政策实施对国内外粮棉价格溢出效应的影响存在差异,其中,临时收储政策对粮棉价格干预最大,其影响程度较强,目标价格补贴和“市场化收购+生产者补贴”政策对粮棉价格干预较弱,其影响程度也相对较弱;政策实施对不同农产品国内外价格溢出效应的影响存在差异,大豆开放程度最高,其影响最强,棉花开放程度次之,其影响相对较弱,而玉米开放程度最低,其影响也最弱。为此,应在确定粮棉储备合理规模,打好支持保护政策“组合拳”,提高统筹利用国际国内市场、资源能力等方面着力,确保中国粮食安全和重要农产品市场稳定。

“粮改饲”补贴政策对农地租金的影响及作用机制

“粮改饲”补贴政策主要是通过补贴农业企业撬动农户生产方式改变,以达到农业调控的整体目标,目前鲜有文献研究此类补贴模式对农地租金的影响。该研究首先理论分析了“粮改饲”补贴政策从养殖企业传导到农户进而影响农地租金的传输机制,然后利用2020年和2022年中国乡村振兴综合调查10省份50县300村4384户5894个地块数据,采用双向固定效应模型,实证分析了“粮改饲”补贴政策对农地租金的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:①“粮改饲”补贴政策显著提高了农户收取土地租金的比例和价格。②机制分析发现,“粮改饲”补贴政策主要通过提高饲料粮种植比例、增加农民收入、培育农地流转市场的方式提高农地流转租金。③异质性分析发现,对于养殖企业附近、耕地资源禀赋较好、土地密集型作物种植区的农地,“粮改饲”补贴对农地租金发挥更大的政策效应;对于劳动力资源禀赋差异,该补贴对农地租金的影响没有表现出显著差异。基于以上研究结论提出政策建议:①优化“粮改饲”补贴政策,将“粮改饲”补贴政策与适宜当地青贮玉米等饲料粮生产的自然条件相结合,减少耕地资源与农产品市场错配,有效发挥耕地资源的使用效率。②优化农地流转市场,发挥土地规模效应,引导农户大规模种植青贮玉米。③探索更加灵活的“粮改饲”补贴模式,鼓励农业企业与农业大户直接合作,通过企业引导农户生产出更加符合市场需求的产品,提高整体的社会福利。

国际粮价波动对我国粮食进口的影响研究

近年来,全球气候持续变暖、极端天气等因素引发世界粮食市场波动并对我国粮食进口带来风险。本文选取我国2018—2023年相关数据,描述我国粮食进口规模、种类、进口来源国等粮食进口现状,通过理论分析与实证分析相结合,建立VAR模型探究全球粮价波动对我国粮食进口贸易的影响。结果显示,我国粮食进口量受到国际粮价的影响,并在短期内产生负向影响,国际粮价上涨1%,我国粮食进口量下降0.005%。为化解粮食进口风险,提高粮食安全的韧性,我国应铸牢粮食产能,提高粮食自给能力,同时深化和其他国家的粮食生产合作,优化粮食进口结构。