Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Change of Grain Production of China in Recent Years and Its Adaptation Strategies

A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production（including wheat,maize and rice）,as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.

Heterosis Analysis of Nitrogen Use Efficiency for Grain Production of Brassica napus L.

[Objective]The aim was to study heterosis of N use efficiency for grain production （NUEg） of Brassica napus L. and provide theoretical basis for breeding N-efficient cultivars. [Method]Dry matter production and N content of six B.napus parents （Zheshuang 3,Yangyou 7,ZJ1,Shilijia,Ningyou 14 and Huyou 16） and their F1 combinations from 6 × 6 complete diallel cross in maturity stage under two N levels were measured; heterosis of NUEg,combining ability and heritability size were analyzed and calculated. [Result]The results showed that NUEg has obvious heterosis; combining ability variance analysis indicated that NUEg was mainly controlled by additive,dominant and cytoplasmic effects; genetic variance analysis showed that additive effects and dominance effects were all significant in low nitrogen fertilizer and dominance effects were significant in high nitrogen fertilizer. [Conclusion]NUEg of B.napus has obvious heterosis.

Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Construction of Land Resource Security System for Core Grain Production Region in Henan Province

To solve the contradiction between supply and demand of land, the con- struction of land resource security guarantee system is an important part to coordi- nate the economic development and cultivated land protection in the core grain pro- duction region. Based on the deep analysis on the land resources characteristics and problems using the combined method of literature review method with qualita- tive and quantitative analysis, we constructed the land resource security system for different categories according to the land use principles of optimization, intensivism, improvement, and overall planning, and proposed the corresponding supporting mea- sures. The results showed that controlling the new increase, promoting the reclama- tion and improvement of land are the basis for land resource security, clearing the idle, improving the utilization rate of stock are the core of the efficient use of land resources, and establishing a unified urban and rural construction land market is the key to promoting the economical and intensive utilization of land resources, provid- ing scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of land resources in the core grain production regions.

Analysis of the System of Direct Subsidy for Grain Production in China

This paper introduces the status quo of the system structure of direct subsidy for grain production in China,and analyses the function and essence of direct subsidy for grain production in China as follows:the function of direct subsidy for grain production in China is to protect and promote the development of food industry,ensure food supply and national food security,protect grain growers' interests,and maintain the dominant position of national food trade;the essence of direct subsidy for grain production is the compensation for grain producers' reasonable interests,the compensation for positive externality of grain production,and social costs of adjusting equilibrium between food supply and demand.We discuss the problems existing in the system of direct subsidy for grain production in China and put forward corresponding countermeasures as follows:first,adhere to improving synergetic system of direct subsidy for grain production;second,adjust the direct subsidy method of grain production;third,establish long-term mechanism of subsidy for grain production;fourth,promote the information-based service level of the system of direct subsidy for grain production.

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to westem China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China＇s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the add and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that fi.trther studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China＇s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.

Spatial-Temporal Changes in Grain Production, Consumption and Driving Mechanism in China

The spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and consumption have an important influence on the effective national grain supply on condition of tight balance in the total grain amount in China. In this paper, we analyze the spatial-temporal pattems of grain production, consumption and the driving mechanism for their evolution processes in China. The results indicate that both gravity centers of grain production and consumption in China moved toward the northern and eastern regions, almost in the same direction. The coordination of grain production and consumption increased slightly from 1995 to 2007 but decreased from 2000 to 2007. There is a spatial difference between the major districts of output increase and the strong growth potential in grain consumption, which indicates an increasing difficulty in improving the regional coordination of grain production and consumption. The movement of the gravity center of grain production is significantly correlated with regional differences in grain production policy, different economic development models, and spatial disparity of land and water resource use. For grain consumption, the main driving factors include rapid urbanization, the upgrade of food consumption structure, and distribution of food industries.

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.

Evaluation for Use Efficiency of Agricultural Resources in Grain Production:A Case Study of Changshu,Taihe and Ansai in China

This paper aims to establish an index system for evaluation of agricultural resources use efficiency(ARUE) in grain production and discuss the causes of low efficiency and high consumption of agricultural resources in Changshu of Jiangsu Province,Taihe of Jiangxi Province and Ansai of Shaanxi Province in China by analyzing the data about meteorology,soil,water consumption and grain production. Agro-ecological Zone(AEZ) method was adopted to calculate the potential productivity,and synthetically multivariate equation was used to evaluate the ARUE of study areas. This paper can be concluded as:1) the agricultural resources in grain production can be classified into five categories,i.e.,climatic resources,water resources,land resources,biological resources and assistant resources,and 15 indexes were selected to evaluate their use efficiency in grain production;2) the values of ARUE in grain production are 0.5868,0.6368 and 0.5390 respectively in Changshu,Taihe and Ansai;and 3) Changshu ranks the highest among the three study areas in terms of the use efficiency of climatic resources and biological resources(evaluation values are 0.0277 and 0.1530) ,but Taihe tops the three in terms of the use efficiency of water resources,land resources and assistant resources(evaluation values are 0.0502,0.2945 and 0.1379 respectively) . However,the ARUE remains always low in Ansai for all the resources. The inefficiencies are caused by poor grain revenue in Changshu,deficient agriculture investments in Taihe and unfavorable natural conditions in Ansai.

Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China

Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook, this paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors. The results show that： 1） During 1980 to 2007, total grain production increased from 3.20 ~ 108 t to 5.02 x 108 t in China, with annual increasing rate of 1.68%. From the regional disparities, most of the regions present increasing trend of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development; 2） Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980 to 1.06 x 108 ha in 2007, which has negative effect on total grain production; 3） The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain yield greatly. However, as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not yield-increasing input, the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on fu- ture grain production increase in China; 4） Based on the results, this paper proposed different land management poli- cies in different regions, for example, the government should protect cultivated land, promote large scale production. As to the less developed regions, the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farm- ers＇ enthusiasm in grain production.

EMERGY ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION SYSTEM IN JIANGSU AND SHAANXI PROVINCES

Efficiency and sustainability of grain production are now important in China. In this study, the grain production systems of Jiangsu and Shaanxi Provinces were compared, to analyze their efficiency and sustainability in terms of utilization of natural resources, inputs of purchased energy and materials, and outputs. Flows of energy and materials between environment and human society were identified, and the natural and human work involved in generating inputs as materials or energy were valued in terms of equivalent amount of solar energy required for their production using emergy method. The results showed environmental resources were continually playing a less important role in the systems, when inorganic subsidiary emergy inputs increased drastically while organic ones decreased or increased little. Deterioration of input emergy structure affected the systems′ efficiency and sustainability,resulting in emergy investment ratios and environmental loading ratios increasing while yield ratios and sustainability indices decreasing. In general, efficiency and sustainability of grain production in Jiangsu are worse than those in Shaanxi. This analysis also suggested that inorganic subsidiary emergy should be introduced properly, and peasants in Jiangsu should utilize natural conditions wisely while those in Shaanxi pay enough attention to soil and surface water conservation.

Grain production space reconstruction and land system function tradeoffs in China

Grain production space reconstruction referred to the changes in the quantity,quality and pattern of grain produc-tion space caused by functional tradeoffs and conflicts between grain production space,urban-rural development space,and ecological service space.Exploring tradeoffs between land system functions caused by grain produc-tion space reconstruction was particularly important for ensuring food security,promoting the construction of ecological civilization,and achieving sustainable development.Therefore,this study identified four relationships of land system functions during the process of grain production space reconstruction(1980-2018)in China by using Set Pair Analysis.Research results showed that the reconstruction of grain production space was achieved mainly through three pathways:Grain for Green,deforestation and reclamation,and urban expansion.Generally,ecological service had spatial negative correlation with grain production,economic development and population carrying capacity(P<0.01),but grain production,economic development and population carrying capacity were positively correlated with each other(P<0.01).In the process of grain production space reconstruction,eco-logical services and economic development,ecological services and population carrying capacity had all shown inverse synergies;there was a tradeoffbetween grain production and ecological services,a codirectional tradeoffbetween grain production and economic development,but a strong synergy between economic development and population carrying capacity.However,the functions of land systems only appeared as synergies or tradeoffs,and there were no inverse synergies and codirectional tradeoffs in the separate processes of Grain for Green,deforestation and reclamation,and urban expansion.It can be concluded that the relationships between land system functions were relatively simple in a single process,but it became complex and diverse when multiple processes were integrated for system analysis.

Research on the Forecast of Grain Production in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015

According to the latest amended agricultural economic statistical data from 1996 to 2009 in Henan Statistical Yearbook-2010,by selecting and establishing the optimized grey model of logarithmic new developed coefficient, we conduct the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output and the relevant main economic indices in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the grain output of Henan Province in 2010 will reach 54.896 9 million tons, and it will break through 60 million tons at 60.17 million tons in 2015. In years ahead, the grain output of Henan Province will develop to a new stage steadily, which guarantees the national grain supply and socio-economic sustainable development forcibly.

Assessment of natural resources and the policy of subsidies in grain production

Based on the analysis on the status quo of natural resources input in Brain production and on the policy of Brain subsidies, this paper puts forward a new idea - establishing grain subsidies through assessing the value of the natural resources in Brain production. The assessment of the natural resources in Brain production provides rationale and reference standard for the policy of Brain subsidies, which will promote the sustainable use of natural resources accordingly. This paper concludes： （1） it is necessary for the grain subsidies to assess the full value of natural resources, including economic value, ecological value and social value： （2） the government should give farmers direct subsidies or environment subsidies according to the economic and ecological value of natural resources in grain production, （3） the social value of natural resources can be realized by establishing the country social security system, taking the social value as the criterion for the payment for part of farmers＇ insurance.

Path to Support Development of Production and Operation of Big Grain Production Households——Based on Investigation of Heilongjiang Province

Developing production and operation in scales in the major grain producing areas is the direction of the paper. Seizing the opportunity of modem agriculture comprehensive reform in two plains （Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain） of Heilongjiang Province and supporting to build a new type of production and management based on the big grain production householding, which plays demonstration and leading roles, have an important strategic position in improving agricultural comprehensive production capacity and ensuring national food security. In this paper, based on the survey data about the big grain production households production operations and analyses of the obstacles in expansion of production in Heilongjiang Province, specific suggestions in supporting the development of the big grain production household were put forward, such as, increasing agricultural production socialized level; perfecting the service system of land transferring; improving financial policies and farmer-friendly policy measures and perfecting the agriculture socialized service system.

Increasing Subsidies to Main Grain Production Area——Necessity of the Rejuvenation of Northeast China

As an old industrial base, Northeast China is one of the most important grain production base. To rejuvenate Northeast China, it is necessary to strengthen farming products processing, lengthen industrial chain and develop sustainable agriculture.

Measurement of Grain Production Efficiency in Main Grain-producing Areas and Analysis of Inter-provincial Differences--A Study Based on Super-SBM Model and Malmquist Index

China's food security mainly depends on the core areas of food production.Under the dual constraints of resource scarcity and environmental degradation,improving the grain production efficiency of the main grain-producing areas has become the fundamental way to strengthen the grain production capacity and improve the national food security capability,and to improve the efficiency of grain production in major grain-producing areas requires empirical support.This paper used the Super SBM model and the Malmquist index to measure the grain production efficiency of the main grain-producing areas from 2001 to 2020 from both static and dynamic perspectives,and compared the differences in grain production efficiency among different soil types and different provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas.The results showed that from 2001 to 2020,the grain production in the main grain-producing areas was in a relatively ineffective state,and the differences in grain production efficiency among different soil types and different provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas were obvious.The order of grain production efficiency in different soil types was black soil region>red-yellow soil region>paddy soil region>fluvo-aquic soil region,and the order of grain production efficiency of the provinces(autonomous regions)in the main grain-producing areas was Jilin>Heilongjiang>Inner Mongolia>Jiangxi>Hunan>Sichuan>Hubei>Jiangsu>Liaoning>Henan>Anhui>Shandong>Hebei.From 2001 to 2020,the total factor productivity of grain in the main grain-producing areas increased,but due to the trade-off between the technological progress and the growth of technical efficiency,the increase in the total factor productivity of grain in the main grain-producing areas was small,and the growth mainly came from the increase of input factors in this period.The total factor productivity of grain in Hebei,Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,Jiangsu,Henan and Anhui increased,but the increase was small,while the total factor productivity of grain in Jiangxi,Sichuan,Hunan and Hubei provinces declined.

Delimitation of Grain Production Functional Zones:An Empirical Analysis of Fangzi District in Weifang City

To solve some unreasonable problems in the acceptance process of the delimitation project of grain production functional zones,the acceptance results of grain production functional zones in Fangzi District,Weifang City were elaborated from the aspects of the third party organization,inspectors,expert group,acceptance criteria,acceptance method,acceptance contents,etc.,and the overall performance of the project was reviewed.The problems that need to be rectified during the implementation of the project were put forward,and the irrationality of the acceptance and the places that need to be improved were pointed out,which would provide a better guiding value for the delimitation of grain production functional zone and the acceptance and performance evaluation of similar projects.

The higher grain production, the more social deprivation? A case study of Henan province in traditional agricultural areas of China

This paper examines the spatial-temporal dynamics of inequality from the perspective of social deprivation in the context of continuous growth of grain production using national census data from 2000 and 2010 for Henan province,China.Our analytical results show an overall level of social deprivation that is high and a widening social deprivation gap at the county level.The social deprivation shows great spatiotemporal heterogeneity,the higher deprived counties are mainly distributed in central and eastern Henan province,while counties with lower social deprivation are clustered in northwestern regions,formed a belt-shape spatial differential between the south(higher deprived counties clustered)and northwest(low deprived counties clustered)Henan in 2000,and changed toward a core-periphery semi annular spatial structure in 2010,the low deprived counties surrounded by high deprived counties.The social deprivation shows a"west low and east high"spatial pattern,similar to the grain production in Henan province.Socioeconomic development level was low in most counties in Yudong plain despite of keeping the continuous increase of grain production,meaning the higher grain output did not result in the more social development expected in Chinese traditional agricultural areas,and the regional disparity is expected to increase in the near future if development conditions are not changed,which could inspire more targeted rural governance options.