Scheme of Constructing CGE Model of China's Direct Grain Subsidy Policy

This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. On the basis of some assumptions, such as conforming to the complete competition of market, inexistence of move of capital and labor forces among countries, unchanged exchange rate and incomplete substitution, and the main body of behavior comprising representative households, producers, local government and central government, the model established in this paper includes production module and demand module. Moreover, the model takes into account equilibrium structure, the definition of profiting and macro condition for closure, the related coefficients this CGE model needs include Armingtion substitution elasticity of intermediate composite product, investment composite product and consumption composite product between import and domestic production; substitution elasticity among production factors; conversion elasticity of total sales between domestic absorption and export; elasticity of residents' expenditure; elasticity of price; elasticity of export demand; the relative share of all sectors in capital stock. This paper also points out the advantages and limitations of CGE model in analyzing direct grain subsidy policy.

Land Use Change and Anthropogenic Driving Forces:A Case Study in Yanhe River Basin

Human activities alter land use patterns and affect landscape sustainability. It is therefore very important to investigate the relationship between land use change and human activities. This study focuses on the detection of changing land use patterns in the Yanhe River Basin in northern Loess Plateau of China between 1995 and 2008. Landscape metrics were used to analyze the changing land use patterns and to explore the related anthropogenic driving forces. Results show that:1) Totally, 186 590 ha of croplands were converted into alternate land-use types (equivalent to 61.7% of the original cropland area). The majority of cropland areas were found to be converted into grassland and woodland areas (accounting for 55.9% and 4.9% respectively of the original cropland areas). 2) Both cropland and woodland demonstrated an increasing fragmentation tendency while grasslands showed a decreasing fragmentation tendency. 3) Multiple driving forces of land use change were thought to act together to changes in landscape metrics in the Yanhe River Basin. The anthropogenic driving forces were analyzed from four perspectives:ecological conservation policy, labor force transfer, industrial development, and rural settlement. The policy of the GfG (Grain for Green) project was the main driving factor which expedited the conversion from cropland to woodland and grassland. Industrial development was also found to affect land use change through the direct impact of economic activities such as oil exploration and agricultural production, or through indirect impacts such as the industrial structures readjustment. Labor force transfer from rural to urban areas was found to follow the industrial structure readjustment and further drove land use change from cropland to off-farm land use. Establishment of new tile-roofed houses instead of cave-type dwellings in rural settlements has helped to aggregate the original scattered land-use type of construction.

Grain Science and Technology Policies and Food Security in China:An Empirical Study Based on a Provincial Dynamic Panel Model

China’s grain science and technology policies have played an important role in the development of China’s food industry.This paper aims to examine the effects of China’s grain science and technology policies on food security.It quantitatively assesses China’s food security by analyzing the main contents and development trends of China’s food science technology policies through the text metrology method,and then investigates the effects of grain science and technology policies on food security by employing a provincial dynamic panel model.The results show that food security in China is all-round developed,and that the release frequency and cumulative effect of grain science and technology policies play a significant role in promoting food security.Powerful grain science and technology policies can effectively guarantee China’s food security.