With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domesti...With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.展开更多
Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to inve...Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to investigate this consideration and also investigate that either growth led deposits and credits,or deposit and credits led growth means the purpose of this study is to investigate the direction of this relationship.Methods:Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013.Results:The results show that two major activities of banking sector that are saving and lending don’t have any long run or short run causality towards economic growth so the general consideration of positive impact of these activities proved wrong in case of Pakistan.However there is unidirectional causality running from GDP growth to credit provided by banking sector which shows that economic prosperity or economic growth will have a major impact on lending activities of banks meaning that demand following hypothesis is true for Pakistan in case of GDP and Bank’s credit or we can say that growth led Bank’s credit in Pakistan.Conclusions:Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth.There might be other factors which influence economic growth of Pakistan more than banking sector these activities,which can be bank’s profitability,human resource,technology,infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.However GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities so during high economic growth year central bank and private bank’s management should introduce easy loans for businesses and industries and during poor economic growth years personal loan’s new schemes should be introduce by banks.展开更多
The role of aquaculture industry is becoming more prominent in order to supplement marine capture in meeting the food need for the growing Malaysian population. In an attempt to minimize depletion of marine fisheries,...The role of aquaculture industry is becoming more prominent in order to supplement marine capture in meeting the food need for the growing Malaysian population. In an attempt to minimize depletion of marine fisheries, only traditional vessels are allowed to fish along the coastal area while bigger vessels are relegated to deep-sea fishing. During the 9th Malaysian Plan (2006-2010) aquaculture has been recognized as the engine of growth in the national food sector’s development strategy. Future fisheries policy is expected to focus more on aquaculture production, marketing and technological improvement as an alternative to marine capture. This paper investigates the causalities between the selected freshwater fish prices, aquaculture area and production. The study aspires to establish whether or not market price is a key contributor to a rise in the aquaculture area and production. Aquaculture firms comprising the individual culturists are generally motivated by the economic potential of the industry which is reflected in excess of price over cost of production. Our hypothesis is that government policy and initiation rather than prices had give rise to greater participation of culturists and hence augmented the level of employment. However, production increase has a negative implication on environment degradation. Thus there is a conflicting view as regards to the employment opportunity generated by aquaculture undertakings and the need for sustainable development arising from this growing industry. Multivariate time series analysis was used in this investigation.展开更多
基金support from the Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (NO. 13&ZD159)
文摘With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.
文摘Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to investigate this consideration and also investigate that either growth led deposits and credits,or deposit and credits led growth means the purpose of this study is to investigate the direction of this relationship.Methods:Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013.Results:The results show that two major activities of banking sector that are saving and lending don’t have any long run or short run causality towards economic growth so the general consideration of positive impact of these activities proved wrong in case of Pakistan.However there is unidirectional causality running from GDP growth to credit provided by banking sector which shows that economic prosperity or economic growth will have a major impact on lending activities of banks meaning that demand following hypothesis is true for Pakistan in case of GDP and Bank’s credit or we can say that growth led Bank’s credit in Pakistan.Conclusions:Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth.There might be other factors which influence economic growth of Pakistan more than banking sector these activities,which can be bank’s profitability,human resource,technology,infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.However GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities so during high economic growth year central bank and private bank’s management should introduce easy loans for businesses and industries and during poor economic growth years personal loan’s new schemes should be introduce by banks.
文摘The role of aquaculture industry is becoming more prominent in order to supplement marine capture in meeting the food need for the growing Malaysian population. In an attempt to minimize depletion of marine fisheries, only traditional vessels are allowed to fish along the coastal area while bigger vessels are relegated to deep-sea fishing. During the 9th Malaysian Plan (2006-2010) aquaculture has been recognized as the engine of growth in the national food sector’s development strategy. Future fisheries policy is expected to focus more on aquaculture production, marketing and technological improvement as an alternative to marine capture. This paper investigates the causalities between the selected freshwater fish prices, aquaculture area and production. The study aspires to establish whether or not market price is a key contributor to a rise in the aquaculture area and production. Aquaculture firms comprising the individual culturists are generally motivated by the economic potential of the industry which is reflected in excess of price over cost of production. Our hypothesis is that government policy and initiation rather than prices had give rise to greater participation of culturists and hence augmented the level of employment. However, production increase has a negative implication on environment degradation. Thus there is a conflicting view as regards to the employment opportunity generated by aquaculture undertakings and the need for sustainable development arising from this growing industry. Multivariate time series analysis was used in this investigation.
