Climate Responses to Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols,Tropospheric Ozone,and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases in Eastern China over 1951–2000

A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to changing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases （GHGs, CO2, CH4, N2O）, tropospheric O3, and aerosols during the years 1951-2000. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic carbon （POA）, secondary organic carbon （SOA）, black carbon （BC） aerosols, and tropospheric 03 for the years 1950 and 2000 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol-GCM simulations, and then monthly concentrations are interpolated linearly between 1951 and 2000. The annual concentrations of GHGs are taken from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. BC aerosol is internally mixed with other aerosols. Model results indicate that the sinmlated climate change over 1951-2000 is sensitive to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric components. The predicted year 2000 global mean surface air temperature can differ by 0.8℃ with different forcings. Relative to the climate simulation without changes in GHGs, O3, and aerosols, anthropogenic forcings of SO4^2-, BC, BC＋SO4^2-, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA＋SOA＋NO3^-, O3, and GHGs are predicted to change the surface air temperature averaged over 1971-2000 in eastern China, respectively, by -0.40℃, ＋0.62℃, ＋0.18℃, ＋0.15℃, -0.78℃, ＋0.43℃, and ＋0.85℃, and to change the precipitation, respectively, by -0.21, ＋0.07, -0.03, ＋0.02, -0.24, -0.08, and ＋0.10 mm d^-1. The authors conclude that all major aerosols are as important as GHGs in influencing climate change in eastern China, and tropospheric O3 also needs to be included in studies of regional climate change in China.

A Review of Research on Human Activity Induced Climate ChangeⅠ. Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Extensive research on the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, carbon cycle modeling, and the characterization of atmospheric aerosols has been carried out in China during the last 10 years or so. This paper presents the major achievements in the fields of emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural lands, carbon cycle modeling, the characterization of Asian mineral dust, source identification of the precursors of the tropospheric ozone, and observations of the concentrations of atmospheric organic compounds. Special, more detailed Information on the emissions of methane from rice fields and the physical and chemical characteristics of mineral aerosols are presented.

Impacts of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols changes on surface air temperature in East Asia under different post-pandemic period emission scenarios

In order to know how surface air temperature(SAT)changes in East Asia under different emission scenarios after the COVID-19 outbreak,we investigated the impacts of greenhouse gases(GHGs)and anthropogenic aerosols changes on SAT in East Asia by using the aerosol-climate coupled model BCC-AGCM 2.0_CUACE/Aero,combining with the post-pandemic emission scenarios proposed by Covid multi-Earth system model intercomparison project(CovidMIP scenarios for short,including fossil-fueled recovery,moderate green stimulus,strong green stimulus,hereinafter as FFF,MGG,SGG,respectively).We assessed the impacts of changes in GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols together and separately on SAT in East Asia and its typical subregions during 2020-2050.The results show that by mid-21st-century,SAT in East Asia will increase by 0.81±0.083°C under Baseline(same as SSP2-4.5 scenario,i.e.,SAT difference between 2045-2050 and 2020-2025),and there will be more intense warming in all the three scenarios in East Asia,in which the largest SAT difference(SAT-d)compared to Baseline is 0.33±0.11°C under SGG and the smallest SAT-d is 0.07±0.14°C under FFF.To further explore the mechanism of these SAT-d,we analyzed the trend of surface longwave and shortwave net radiation flux driven by GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols there.It is found that in early period(2020-2035),the role of aerosol changes is bigger than that of GHG changes in dominating SAT-d,particularly sulfate,whose reduction will become the main contributor to SAT-d by affecting the net solar flux at surface.In later period(2036-2050),because of GHGs’longer atmospheric lifetime than aerosols,the role of decreasing GHGs concentrations will determine the drop in SAT-d through affecting the net longwave flux at surface.

Response of North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water to Greenhouse Gas Versus Aerosol Forcing

Mode water is a distinct water mass characterized by a near vertical homogeneous layer or low potential vorticity, and is considered essential for understanding ocean climate variability. Based on the output of GFDL CM3, this study investigates the response of eastern subtropical mode water （ESTMW） in the North Pacific to two different single forcings： greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosol. Under GHG forcing, ESTMW is produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and is decreased in volume. Under aerosol forcing, in sharp contrast, it is produced on denser isopycnal surfaces and is increased in volume. The main reason for the opposite response is because surface ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux change over the ESTMW formation region shoals the mixed layer and thus weakens the lateral induction under GHG forcing, but deepens the mixed layer and thus strengthens the lateral induction under aerosol forcing. In addition, local wind changes are also favorable to the opposite response of ESTMW production to GHG versus aerosol.

Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run (2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature. The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.

Impact of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Diurnal Temperature Range in January in Eastern China

This study investigates the changes in January diurnal temperature range(DTR) in China during 1961-2000.The observed DTR changes during 1981-2000 relative to 1961-80 are first analyzed based on the daily temperature data at 546 weather stations.These observed DTR changes are classified into six cases depending on the changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures,and then the occurrence frequency and magnitude of DTR change in each case are presented.Three transient simulations are then performed to understand the impact of greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol direct forcing on DTR change:one without anthropogenic radiative forcing,one with anthropogenic GHGs,and another one with the combined forcing of GHGs and five species of anthropogenic aerosols.The predicted daily DTR changes during the years 1981-2000 are also classified into six cases and are compared with the observations.Results show that the previously proposed reason for DTR reduction,a stronger nocturnal warming than a daytime warming,explains only 19.8%of the observed DTR reduction days.DTR reductions are found to generally occur in northeastern China,coinciding with significant regional warming.The simulation with GHG forcing alone reproduces this type of DTR reduction with an occurrence frequency of 32.9%,which is larger than the observed value.Aerosol direct forcing reduces DTR mainly by daytime cooling.Consideration of aerosol cooling improves the simulation of occurrence frequencies of different types of DTR changes as compared to the simulation with GHGs alone,but it cannot improve the prediction of the magnitude of DTR changes.

有效辐射强迫的概念及其最新估值:IPCCAR6解读

依据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告第七章的内容,详细介绍了AR6最新定义的有效辐射强迫(ERF)及其计算方法,并给出了自工业革命以来(1750—2019年)各气候辐射强迫因子ERF的最佳估值。根据AR6的最新评估,工业革命以来总人为ERF的估值为2.72(1.96~3.48)W·m^(-2),相较于AR5估计结果(1750—2011年)增长了0.43 W·m^(-2)。2011年后温室气体浓度的增加及其辐射效率的修正是造成总人为ERF增加的主要原因。自工业革命以来温室气体浓度变化造成的ERF为3.84(3.46~4.22)W·m^(-2),二氧化碳仍然是其中的最大贡献因素(56%±16%)。而气溶胶的总ERF(气溶胶-辐射相互作用(ERFari)与气溶胶-云相互作用(ERFaci)的总和)为-1.1(-1.7~-0.4)W·m^(-2),其中ERFari贡献20%~25%,ERFaci贡献接近75%~80%。AR6中气溶胶的总ERF的估算相较于AR5在数值上有所增加,而不确定性有所减少。但由于没有考虑部分重要的调整过程,ERFaci仍然存在较大的不确定性。

北半球人体不舒适天数归因分析及其未来预估

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及6个CMIP6全球气候模式模拟资料,对1961—2014年北半球湿热指数表征的热不舒适天数与风寒指数表征的冷不舒适天数历史变化进行归因分析,并预估未来(2015—2100年)4种不同情景下不舒适天数的变化趋势。结果表明:历史时期北半球中低(中高)纬度地区热(冷)不舒适天数偏多且不舒适天数显著增加(减少)。其中,高纬度(中纬度)地区能够检测到历史全强迫,人为强迫和温室气体强迫的影响,且温室气体强迫主导了冷(热)不舒适天数变化。低纬度地区,热不舒适天数显著增加可归因于人为温室气体强迫作用,气溶胶强迫能够产生相反的作用降低热不舒适的发生率,冷不舒适天数则受气候系统内部的调控作用。未来热(冷)不舒适天数将持续增加(减少),其中ssp585与ssp370情景下舒适度变化显著,ssp126与ssp245情景下,2080年后北半球人类遭受的冷热不舒适感将维持在稳定的水平。

温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫作用

对GOALS4 .0海 陆 气耦合模式的相关部分进行了改进 ,主要改进包括温室气体的扩充和硫酸盐气溶胶“显式”方案的引入 ,并引入 2 0世纪温室气体的实际浓度变化以及硫循环模式模拟的硫酸盐气溶胶的三维全球浓度分布 ,模拟了温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶造成的辐射强迫的空间分布和时间变化。全球平均的温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫分别为 2 .17W /m2 和 - 0 .2 9W /m2 ;温室气体造成的辐射强迫在空间上呈现明显的纬向结构 ,最大值 (大于 2 .5W/m2 )和最小值 (小于 1W /m2 )分别位于副热带和两极地区 ,在北半球主要工业区硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫绝对值接近温室气体的辐射强迫值 (大于 - 2 .0W /m2 )。

长江中下游地区21世纪气候变化情景预测

利用IPCC数据分发中心提供的7个模式的模拟结果,分析了由于人类活动影响,温室气体(GG)增加以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶(GS)共同增加时,长江中下游地区未来50～100年的气候变化情景。结果表明,长江中下游地区21世纪的未来温度变化与全球和全国一样,都将呈增加的趋势。GG作用下,2050年和2100年长江中下游地区的变暖幅度分别为2.2℃和4.5℃左右,比全国以及东部和西部地区的变暖幅度小;GS作用下2050年和2100年,其分别为1.2℃和3.9℃,总体上,长江中下游地区的变暖幅度低于全球与全国的变暖幅度。各个季节相比,春季和冬季的增温幅度最大,夏季最小,在两种情形下,长江中下游地区21世纪中期夏季温度将分别增加2.3和0.8℃,2100年将分别增加4.1和3.1℃。对降水变化的分析表明,GG作用下,长江中下游地区与全球、全国以及中国西部和东部地区相比,降水增加的幅度最大;GS作用下,降水增加趋势不明显;综合7个模式的模拟结果,GG作用下,春季和秋季降水增加最明显,夏季次之;GS作用下,长江中下游地区的年平均降水变化不明显,夏季降水增加。同时,本文还对长江中下游地区21世纪中期和末期的温度和降水变化的地理分布进行了分析,两种情形下,都是长江以北的增温幅度大于长江以南。GG作用下。

Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP/LASG GOALS Model

The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.

用区域气候模式模拟人为硫酸盐气溶胶在气候变化中的作用

使用新版RegCM2区域气候模式, 单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海-气耦合模式, 在CO2加倍情况下引入人为硫酸盐气溶胶直接气候效应, 进行了其对中国气候变化影响的试验。结果表明, 硫酸盐气溶胶的直接气候效应, 对地面气温为降温作用, 其中在冬半年和在南方更明显; 对降水的影响为全国各月平均降水将以减少为主, 年平均降水变化的基本特点为在中国东部以减少为主, 西部以增加为主。但无论温度还是降水变化的数值都很小。

东亚夏季风变化机理的模拟和未来变化的预估：成绩和问题、机遇和挑战

东亚夏季风对于我国东部气候具有重要影响,呈现出多种时间尺度的变化特征。在理解东亚夏季风过去和当前的变化机理、预测和预估其未来变化等方面,气候系统模式发挥着不可替代的作用。但是当前的气候模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上尚存在诸多不足,这使得其模拟结果存在不确定性,既制约了我们对过去和当前季风变化机理的准确理解,又降低了未来预测预估结果的可信度。关于造成季风模拟偏差的原因,既涉及模式本身的性能问题,又与模拟系统的构建、强迫资料的误差、乃至我们当前对季风变化规律自身的认知水平有关。本文以时间尺度为序,从气候态、日变化、年际变率、年代际变率、长期气候变化和未来预估等季风学界关注的热点问题角度,本着总结成绩、归纳问题、寻找机遇、面对挑战的目的,从七个方面系统总结了当前气候模式的水平,归纳了其主要偏差特征,讨论了影响模式性能的可能因素。内容涉及模式分辨率和地形效应、对流和云辐射效应的作用、与季风相关的热带海气相互作用关键过程、内部变率(太平洋年代际振荡)、自然变率(太阳辐照度变化和火山气溶胶强迫)和人为辐射强迫(人为温室气体和气溶胶排放)对季风变化的不同影响、热力和动力过程及气候敏感度对季风环流(副高)和降水预估不确定性的影响等。最后从优化参数、实现场地观测和过程模拟的协同、发展高分辨和对流解析模式等角度,讨论了提升东亚夏季风模拟能力的技术途径。

中国大气成分卫星遥感的发展与应用

大气成分(ACs)影响着大气圈与其他圈层的相互作用。卫星遥感的全球观测能力在大气成分监测方面发挥着独一无二的作用。我国从20世纪70年代开始实施风云气象卫星等遥感卫星计划。从1988年第一颗气象卫星发射经过了二十年的探索和积累,2008年风云三号A星的成功发射实现我国自主卫星大气成分探测零的突破。随后,我国成功实施了多个面向大气成分监测的科学探索和业务卫星计划,大大促进了卫星遥感在气溶胶颗粒物、痕量气体和温室气体监测领域的研究与应用。其中,极轨风云三号和静止风云四号两大系列业务卫星搭载的成像仪以及高分五号和大气环境监测卫星等搭载的气溶胶偏振测量仪,分别提供了高空间覆盖和高时间分辨的气溶胶颗粒物观测。风云三号系列业务卫星和高分五号科学试验卫星上搭载的高光谱探测仪实现了多种痕量气体的监测,而中国首颗全球大气二氧化碳科学试验卫星、风云三号D星和高分五号科学试验卫星先后实现了大气二氧化碳柱浓度的全球探测能力。同时,20世纪90年代以来,卫星大气成分遥感的地面真实性检验工作也取得了显著的进展。2022年4月我国刚刚发射成功的大气环境监测卫星,在全球首次搭载有二氧化碳探测的主动激光雷达,这将提供更高精度的大气二氧化碳和气溶胶颗粒物的观测资料,更好服务于我国大气环境治理和“双碳”战略目标。

Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009

A study of six decades（1950–2009） of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream（STJ） of the Southern（Northern） Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened（strengthened） during both the boreal winter（January,February） and summer（July, August） seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols（particularly sulphate aerosols） and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Examination of the Quality of GOSAT/CAI Cloud Flag Data over Beijing Using Ground-based Cloud Data

It has been several years since the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite （GOSAT） began to observe the distribution of CO2 and CH4 over the globe from space. Results from Thermal and Near-infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation-Cloud and Aerosol Imager （TANSO-CAI） cloud screening are necessary for the retrieval of CO2 and CH4 gas concentrations for GOSAT TANSO-Fourier Transform Spectrometer （FTS） observations. In this study, TANSO-CAI cloud flag data were compared with ground-based cloud data collected by an all-sky imager （ASI） over Beijing from June 2009 to May 2012 to examine the data quality. The results showed that the CAI has an obvious cloudy tendency bias over Beijing, especially in winter. The main reason might be that heavy aerosols in the sky are incorrectly determined as cloudy pixels by the CAI algorithm. Results also showed that the CAI algorithm sometimes neglects some high thin cirrus cloud over this area.

Intraseasonal variation and future projection of atmospheric diffusion conditions conducive to extreme haze formation over eastern China

Future projection of diffusion conditions associated with extreme haze events over eastern China is of great importance to government emission regulations and public human health.Here,the diffusion conditions and their changes under future warming scenarios are examined.The relative strength of haze events in the Northern China Plain region increase from 150%during 2006–15 to 190%during 2090–99 under RCP8.5 scenarios,induced by a stronger and longer-lasting anticyclone anomaly in eastern China.The strengthened anticyclone anomaly is mainly induced by increased northern wave train convergence emanating from the Barents–Kara Sea,and the longer duration of the anticyclone anomaly is mainly induced by stronger local feedback that can extract more energy from the basic state to maintain the anticyclone anomaly in eastern China.Aerosol reduction is found to play a dominant role in strengthening the upstream wave train near the Barents–Kara Sea and the downstream anticyclone in eastern China,while the effects from increased greenhouse gases are small.The results of this study indicate that future aerosol emissions reduction can induce deteriorating diffusion conditions,suggesting more stringent regulations on aerosol emissions in China are needed to meet air quality standards.

硫酸铝催化剂在强温室气体1,1-二氟乙烷气相催化裂解脱HF反应中的性能研究

通过评价系列硫酸盐催化剂对1,1-二氟乙烷(HFC-152a)气相催化裂解脱HF反应的催化活性,筛选出活性最优的硫酸铝催化剂,并采用热失重分析(TG-DTG)、X射线衍射(XRD)、扫描电镜(SEM)、N2物理吸附-脱附(BET)、吡啶红外(Py-IR)等手段对不同焙烧温度处理硫酸铝催化剂进行表征.结果表明,通过对比不同焙烧温度的硫酸铝催化剂发现结晶水含量对催化活性有抑制作用.反应后的催化剂具有更高的Lewis酸量,一方面是由于脱出结晶水有助于增加Al物种不饱和配位点,而其中部分不饱和位点被F物种占据,进而有助于增强Lewis酸性;另一方面,催化剂表面Brønsted酸位点同样易被F物种取代,具有一定的刻蚀作用,所以在增加Lewis酸量的同时,也增加了催化剂的比表面积,提高反应分子与活性位点的接触机率.最后通过采用原位红外表征(In-situ DRIFTS)研究硫酸铝催化剂在HFC-152a气相催化裂解中的催化机理.

Preface to the Special Issue on the Program of “Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues”-A Strategic Scientific Pioneering Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Global warming has been one of the biggest issues faced by the world in recent decades.It is closely related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases（GHGs）—mainly CO_2,CH_4 and N_2O—and the effects of reducing emissions and increasing the carbon fixation capability.