Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the improving efficiency of resource allocation, particularly the flow and migration of agricultural workforce to non-agricultural sectors, has contributed greatly to China'...Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the improving efficiency of resource allocation, particularly the flow and migration of agricultural workforce to non-agricultural sectors, has contributed greatly to China's economic growth. However, scholars have seldom carried out continuous empirical study on the extent of such contribution mainly due to limited methods for the calculation of labor allocation effect. This paper employs the incremental analysis method of index to separate labor allocation effect from economic growth in order to conduct an analysis on such effect under the framework of economic growth. Using this approach, this paper has calculated the labor allocation effect during various periods of time in China between 1978 and 2014 and the results indicate that the flow and migration of labor constituted the major source of China's economic growth during the periods between 1978 and 1987, between 1992 and 1998 and between 2003 and 2014 and still have great potentials in the coming decade. After 2025, the labor allocation effect will diminish and is likely to become a factor that hinders economic growth.展开更多
China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s grow...China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.展开更多
文摘Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the improving efficiency of resource allocation, particularly the flow and migration of agricultural workforce to non-agricultural sectors, has contributed greatly to China's economic growth. However, scholars have seldom carried out continuous empirical study on the extent of such contribution mainly due to limited methods for the calculation of labor allocation effect. This paper employs the incremental analysis method of index to separate labor allocation effect from economic growth in order to conduct an analysis on such effect under the framework of economic growth. Using this approach, this paper has calculated the labor allocation effect during various periods of time in China between 1978 and 2014 and the results indicate that the flow and migration of labor constituted the major source of China's economic growth during the periods between 1978 and 1987, between 1992 and 1998 and between 2003 and 2014 and still have great potentials in the coming decade. After 2025, the labor allocation effect will diminish and is likely to become a factor that hinders economic growth.
文摘China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.
