Forest characteristics,population structure and growth trends of threatened relict Pseudotsuga forrestii in China

Pseudotsuga forrestii is a relict evergreen coniferous tree species in Pinaceae endemic to China.P.forrestii tree numbers have greatly decreased due to deforestation,over-utilization and habitat degradation.Here we clarify P.forrestii community types,structure,species diversity,seedling recruitments and growth trends.We identified four P.forrestii community types:(1)Pseudotsuga forrestii-Quercus guyavifolia-Acer davidii evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest;(2)Pseudotsuga forrestii-Pinus yunnanensis-Quercus guyavifolia evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest;(3)Pseudotsuga forrestii evergreen coniferous forest;(4)Pseudotsuga forrestii-Abies georgei var.smithii evergreen coniferous forest.P.forrestii forests are characterized by both warm temperate and temperate affinities.Simpson diversity,Pielou evenness,Shannon-Wiener diversity indices ranged from 0.75 to 0.76,0.74-0.81,and 1.62-1.93,respectively,with no significant differences among the four forest types.The forest stratification was multilayered.The canopy layer was generally 10-25 m tall,with the emergent layer reached 25-42 m.DBH and age structures of P.forrestii showed multimodal distributions.Its maximum age P.forrestii was 570 years with a DBH of 143 cm.The growth of annual ring width of P.forrestii was slow,and generally decreased with age,whereas the basal area at the breast height increased with age.Established seedlings/saplings were mainly found in unstable micro-habitats.Regeneration of P.forrestii depends on moderate natural disturbances.Finally,we provide recommendations for P.forrestii conservation.

Divergent growth trends and climatic response of Picea obovata along elevational gradient in Western Sayan mountains, Siberia

In mountain ecosystems,plants are sensitive to climate changes,and an entire range of species distribution can be observed in a small area.Therefore,mountains are of great interest for climate–growth relationship analysis.In this study,the Siberian spruce’s(Picea obovata Ledeb.)radial growth and its climatic response were investigated in the Western Sayan Mountains,near the SayanoShushenskoe Reservoir.Sampling was performed at three sites along an elevational gradient:at the lower border of the species range,in the middle,and at the treeline.Divergence of growth trends between individual trees was observed at each site,with microsite landscape-soil conditions as the most probable driver of this phenomenon.Cluster analysis of individual tree-ring width series based on inter-serial correlation was carried out,resulting in two sub-set chronologies being developed for each site.These chronologies appear to have substantial differences in their climatic responses,mainly during the cold season.This response was not constant due to regional climatic change and the local influence of the nearby Sayano-Shushenskoe Reservoir.The main response of spruce to growing season conditions has a typical elevational pattern expected in mountains:impact of temperature shifts with elevation from positive to negative,and impact of precipitation shifts in the opposite direction.Chronologies of trees,growing under more severe micro-conditions,are very sensitive to temperature during September–April and to precipitation during October–December,and they record both inter-annual and long-term climatic variation.Consequently,it would be interesting to test if they indicate the Siberian High anticyclone,which is the main driver of these climatic factors.

THE ANALYSIS OF CHILD′S GROWTH TREND DURING 1958～1995 IN XI′AN CITY

The paper analyzed the growth level and velocity to find the growth trend with the data collected in 8 investigations on growth of children aged 7～17 years in 1958～1995 in Xi′an. The results showed that child′s growth level was elevated with the passage of years and was the lowest in 1962, the highest in 1995 during the 38 years. The height of boy of the same age in 1995 has average increased by 9 59 cm over 1958 and girl 8 38 cm. The weight of boy of the same age in 1995 has averagely increased by 8 35 kg over 1958 and girl 5 90 kg. The chest girth of boy of the same age in 1995 has average increased by 5 69 cm over 1958 and girl 4 66 cm. The growth level of children aged 9～15 years had greater increase than others in 7～17 years of age. The average increment per 10 years of boy's height was 2 57 cm and girl's 2 26 cm. The average increment of per 10 years of boy's weight was 2 17 kg and girl's 1 56 kg. The average increment of per 10 years of boy's chest girth was 1 50 cm and girl's 1 23 cm. The analysis of the growth velocity in different period during 38 years showed the velocity in 1958～1962 was a negative value and indicated a growth retard, but the velocity in 1962～1964 was the fastest and indicated a catch up growth. And then, growth velocities of height, weight and chest girth were different in different period. The analysis of the growth curves of height, weight and chest girth showed that the 2 cross ages were 1～3 years of age ahead of time and menarche and emission also were ahead of time that during the 38 years indicated there is a child's growth acceleration in Xi′an and the trend of child's growth acceleration could continue if there are more and better nourishment, sports requisites, health care and housing conditions.

An Analysis of China’s Economic Growth Trend(1998-2002)

The growth of the world economy in 2001 featured significant slowdowns, with various developed countries plunging into economic recessions or economic downturns synchronously. Against this context, China was able to maintain a 7.3 percent growth. A simple direct comparison of economic growth of all countries shows that China outshone all the others.

Sustainable Growth in China’s Communications Field: Trend Analysis of Impact of China’s Academic Publications

China＇s cormaaunications industry is an important part of the electronic information industry, and plays a significant role in the national informatization process. In 2006, China issued its National Plans for Medium and Long-term Development of Science and Technology （2006-2020） （NPMLDST）. Since 2006, there has been a rapid increase in the number of citations of China＇s interna- tional papers in the field of communications. In accordance with the goals listed in the NPMLDST, China needs to over- take several competitors by 2020 to be among the top five countries in the field of natural science field. By comparing two Essential Science Indicators （ESI） （i.e., the total number of citations and the number of citations per paper） for China and other countries, China＇s annual growth rate is found to exceed that of other influential countries in the field of sci- ence and technology, and exhibits evident growth-type characteristics. Besides, our study also shows that the short- age of high-quality academic papers in China is the main obstacle to improving the impact of China＇s academic publications.

Age trends and correlations of growth and wood properties in clone of Eucalyptus urophylla × E. grandis in Guangdong, China

We assessed growth traits and wood properties ofDH32-29, a clone of Eucalyptus urophylla x E. grandis, at age of two to six years in Guangdong in China. Analysis of variance of studied traits showed that there were significant differences （1% level） on all studied traits among ages except for wood basic density. Analysis of age trends of growth traits and wood properties revealed that rotation length of DH32-29 should be more than six years or longer. Phenotypic correlations among traits at individual ages indicated that correlations between growth traits were strongly positive. There was significant change in relationship between growth and wood basic density with increasing age, ranging from -0.03 to -0.54 at 2 and 5 year and 0.003 to 0.3 at 3, 4 and 6 year. Correlations between Pilodyn pin penetration and basic density measured on increment cores showed that Pilodyn could rank or group genotypes or sites into density classes, but failure to predict individual tree and individual clone.

Trends of Population Growth in China:Maximum Number Will Exceed 1.5 Billion

ＴｒｅｎｄｓｏｆＰｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎＧｒｏｗｔｈｉｎＣｈｉｎａ：ＭａｘｉｍｕｍＮｕｍｂｅｒＷｉｌｌＥｘｃｅｅｄ１．５ＢｉｌｌｉｏｎⅠ．ＴｈｅＴｒｅｎｄｏｆＣｈｉｎａ＇ｓＰｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎＧｒｏｗｔｈａｔａＬｏｗＦｅｒｔｉｌｉｔｙＲａｔｅＴｈｅｍｏｓ...

矿产勘查市场周期性波动与我国矿产勘查趋势分析

在社会经济发展的驱动下,矿产勘查市场具有明显的周期性波动,包括长周期变化、中短周期变化和随机性变化。澳大利亚50年矿产勘查市场变化表明,经济发展的长周期变化决定了矿产资源供需关系基本面,矿产资源供需关系基本面决定了矿产勘查投入的长周期变化;经济发展中短周期变化决定了矿产品价格周期性变化,矿产品价格周期性变化决定了矿产勘查投入的中短周期变化。在国家新一轮找矿突破战略行动驱动下,我国矿产勘查活动进入新一轮增长周期,并呈现出与全球不同的变化特征。2020年以来,我国矿产勘查投入连续4年实现增长,且增速逐年扩大,2023年同比增长25.4%,矿产勘查市场内生回升动力不断增强。2016年之后,主要受国内政策环境的影响,我国矿产勘查投入变化偏离了全球勘查市场走势。综合判断,我国矿产勘查市场正处在长中短周期叠加、政策环境发生明显改善的特殊阶段。经济发展长周期变化和中短周期变化对矿产勘查投入形成较大的下行压力,而政策环境改善对市场形成了较强的上行拉力,未来2~3 a将是政策红利集中释放的时间,本轮矿产勘查增长周期可能将延续2~3 a时间。

济阳坳陷常规探明石油地质储量增长规律及未来10年增储趋势

济阳坳陷常规石油领域一直是胜利油田勘探开发主战场,至今已经历了60余年勘探开发,整体进入成熟勘探阶段,但每年仍具有较大的增储规模,这与传统认为的含油气盆地探明石油地质储量增长趋势不一致。济阳坳陷常规探明石油地质储量增长规律如何?未来能否继续保持较强的增储态势?其主要的增储领域有哪些?这些事关胜利油田勘探决策的重要问题亟需研究明确。通过梳理济阳坳陷勘探历程,分析其地质特征、资源条件、探井工作量投入、理论技术、资源序列等勘探要素,揭示济阳坳陷常规石油勘探发现规律,运用“帚状”模型预测法、资源探明速率法等方法预测常规探明石油地质储量增长趋势,结合主要增储领域剖析,明确济阳坳陷常规石油未来增储规模及有利方向。结果表明:济阳坳陷复杂的地质特征、较为雄厚的剩余资源基础决定其勘探对象的多样性、勘探过程的曲折性和勘探历史的长期性;在保证相对稳定的探井工作量投入,持续开展勘探理论及关键技术的攻关,保持相对合理的资源序列等条件下,济阳坳陷常规石油仍能保持较长时期的稳定增储;在当前经济技术条件及勘探投入相对保障的情况下,未来10年济阳坳陷仍可贡献常规探明石油地质储量2.5×10^(8)t左右;指出济阳坳陷新近系河道砂岩油藏、沙四段上亚段—沙三段岩性油气藏等成熟领域仍是稳定增储的压舱石,孔店组—沙四段下亚段深层领域是重要的规模增储领域,前古近系潜山领域是富集高产的有利方向。今后,应紧密跟踪非常规与新能源领域的勘探进展,对济阳坳陷常规探明石油地质储量增长规律及增储趋势等研究结果进行不断地完善和修正,以期更符合油田勘探发展态势,指导油田勘探决策。

1985—2019年中国18个少数民族17岁学生身高长期趋势分析

目的:分析1985—2019年我国18个少数民族17岁学生身高生长长期变化趋势。方法:提取7次中国学生体质与健康调研报告(除1991年)中蒙古族、回族、维吾尔族、壮族、朝鲜族、藏族、苗族、布依族、侗族、白族、土家族、哈尼族、傣族、傈僳族、佤族、纳西族、土族、羌族等18个少数民族学生身高均值进行研究。结果:34年间各少数民族男生17岁身高均值显著增长(P<0.05)。2019年18个少数民族17岁男学生中,回族男生身高均值最高(173.09 cm),苗族男生身高均值最低(162.66 cm),每10年身高增长>1 cm的民族有侗族(1.96 cm/10年)、白族(1.96 cm/10年)、土家族(1.95 cm/10年)、羌族(1.80 cm/10年)、回族(1.80 cm/10年)、蒙古族(1.79 cm/10年)、土族(1.72 cm/10年)、维吾尔族(1.63 cm/10年)、藏族(1.61 cm/10年)、布依族(1.55 cm/10年)、纳西族(1.52 cm/10年)、傣族(1.35 cm/10年)、傈僳族(1.29 cm/10年)、哈尼族(1.25 cm/10年)、壮族(1.16 cm/10年)、佤族(1.06 cm/10年);每10年身高增长<1 cm的民族是苗族(0.95 cm/10年)。2019年,18个少数民族17岁女学生中,回族女生身高均值最高(161.71 cm),布依族女生身高均值最低(151.63 cm),每10年身高增长>1 cm的民族分别是土家族(1.80 cm/10年)、回族(1.52 cm/10年)、土族(1.25 cm/10年)、白族(1.23 cm/10年)、侗族(1.18 cm/10年)、朝鲜族(1.12 cm/10年)、羌族(1.04 cm/10年);34年间除维吾尔族、苗族女生外,其余少数民族女生身高增长显著(P<0.05)。结论:我国少数民族男生均出现了较为明显的生长长期趋势,大部分少数民族女生出现了较为明显的生长长期趋势,各民族男女生身高增长不平衡,证明我国不同地区、不同少数民族学生生长潜力得以发挥,对于身高增长较慢的民族需要给予更高的关注,而对于那些身高增长较快的民族也要预防其带来的负面效应。

基于SPEI的陕西苹果产区近60a干旱变化特征

研究旨在明确气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区的干旱变化特征,为陕西苹果产区适应气候变化,科学指导陕西苹果防旱减损提供参考。利用陕西省苹果产区近60 a的气象站月降水、气温资料,计算陕西苹果各产区年、生长季、各生育期的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,对其进行趋势、突变和周期变化分析。研究结果表明近60 a陕西苹果产区年际明显趋于干旱,生长季总体趋于干旱,突变点多集中在1970s和1990s,1990s后干旱趋势较为明显,其中渭北东部产区干旱趋势尤为显著、干旱风险持续增加;萌芽—幼果期干旱趋势十分明显,干旱风险持续增加,突变点多集中在1970s后期至1980s初期和1990s初期,1990s初期后干旱趋势较为明显,产区中渭北西部、渭北东部、关中的干旱趋势显著;着色—成熟期、越冬休眠期总体趋于干旱,突变点多集中在1970s,1970s中后期以来呈干旱趋势,各产区均存在干旱趋势但变化趋势不显著;果实膨大期则以波动变化为主,未有显著的变化趋势。基于SPEI的干旱分析结合了降雨和蒸散发、考虑了更长时间尺度、适用于不同气候区域,更能客观反映气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区干旱情况。气候变化造成的降水偏少、气温升高是陕西苹果产区趋于干旱的主要影响因素。

1990-2020年植物生长调节剂用量分析

植物生长调节剂作为一种外源激素,在植物整个生长过程中发挥着重要的作用,被广泛应用于农林业。为满足现代农药的发展需求,植物生长调节剂在未来农林业发展中的作用越来越重要。随着农业科技的不断进步,植物生长调节剂总量、各国使用量及其在整个农药市场中所占份额也出现不同程度的变化。本文从植物生长调节剂的用量、在农药中的占比及其变化趋势等不同角度分析了1990-2020年植物生长调节剂的使用情况,并提出了相关展望,以期为植物生长调节剂的应用提供参考。

2000-2022年宁夏不同地理分区生长季植被覆盖度时空非平稳性特征

地表植被是土壤、水体与大气之间重要的连接物质。研究不同地理分区植被覆盖度(Fractional Vegetation Cover,FVC)时空非平稳性对区域生态环境保护与规划建设具有重要意义。基于MODIS13Q1 NDVI数据及其同期气象、地形、土壤、人类活动影响因子,明确不同地理分区FVC时空变化特征及其原因。结果表明:宁夏不同地理分区下的FVC差异显著,南部山区拥有较好的FVC水平。2000-2022年宁夏FVC呈现波动式增长趋势,南部山区FVC变化最为明显,平均增长速率为0.011/a。生长季多年平均空间格局分析说明宁夏高FVC主要集中在六盘山高山区、沿黄流域和清水河流域。23年间宁夏FVC低波动区域重点位于六盘山、沙坡头自然保护区、南华山以及吴忠市和银川市城建区域,中部干旱带高波动明显,Theil-Sen Median趋势分析显示南部山区增长趋势明显,引黄灌溉区有递减趋势,Mann-Kendall显著性检验说明宁夏越往南部FVC改善越显著,Hurst趋势进一步表明了南部山区和引黄灌溉区具有高持续特点,南部山区高山区、沙坡头自然保护区、甘城子以西、贺兰山石炭井、中宁县、贺兰县月牙湖乡等区域未来将维持稳定不变,沙坡头区香山一带反持续性显著,FVC有将会得到改善,贺兰山部分地区FVC较低且持续性较强有维持现状风险。宁夏不同地理分区FVC与影响因素时空非平稳特征明显,空间序列回归系数说明人类活动对FVC产生重要影响,时间序列回归系数说明了历史时期气候因素对FVC影响波动性大。该项研究可为宁夏不同地域生态保护、建设与可持续发展提供差异化对策提供参考。

大花序桉径向生长相关基因表达分析

【目的】研究不同径级的大花序桉形成层的差异表达基因和表达模式,从基因表达水平揭示大花序桉径向生长的相关机制,为林木遗传育种和培育提供有益参考。【方法】采用Illumina HiSeq 2000测序平台对5个不同径级的大花序桉形成层的转录组进行测序,使用featureCount软件计算基因表达水平FPKM,通过edgeR和TCseq进行基因差异表达分析和表达模式分析。【结果】转录组测序经质控后获高质量reads共1364837824条,平均GC含量51.07%,与参考基因组的比对率平均为68.49%。对不同径级的大花序桉转录组进行差异表达基因分析,共筛选出8794个差异表达基因,其中超高径级组Vs中径级组筛选出3292个(上调表达1878个,下调表达1414个),大径级组Vs中径级组筛选出3876个(上调表达2314个,下调表达1562个),小径级组Vs中径级组筛选出3604个(上调表达1599个,下调表达2005个),超低径级组Vs中径级组筛选出4565个(上调表达2850个,下调表达1715个)。差异表达基因的GO和KEGG分析显示,差异表达基因主要富集在糖基转移酶活性、有机环化合物结合、氧化还原酶活性等功能中,参与细胞色素P450代谢、苯丙烷生物合成、苯丙氨酸代谢、黄酮类生物合成等与次生木质部形成相关的代谢途径。基因表达模式分析将所有基因聚类为10个模式,其中模式9的基因随径级的降低表达量呈下降趋势,主要富集在Hippo信号通路、萜类骨架生物合成等代谢通路。【结论】大花序桉径向生长与多个代谢途径相关,其中与木质素合成相关的苯丙氨酸代谢途径可能是较为重要的途径,Hippo信号通路可能参与树干大小的调控。

超宽禁带半导体氧化镓材料的专利分析

【目的】氧化镓是一种超宽禁带半导体,具有耐高压、耐高温、功率大、抗辐照等特性,极有可能在未来成为高功率、大电压应用领域的主导者,在全球科研与产业界引起了广泛重视。从专利角度对氧化镓材料进行分析,为相关产业的发展和专利布局提供参考。【方法】基于全球相关专利数据,从专利申请趋势、专利权人排名、技术来源国、技术领域IPC分类等维度对氧化镓材料进行分析。【结结果果】揭示了氧化镓在不同国家/地区的竞争态势、技术实力及我国与国际先进水平的差距。【结论】氧化镓材料的研究主要集中在半导体器件及晶体生长方面,国内相关研究起步晚,但发展迅速。

Effects of Climate and the Urban Heat Island Effect on Urban Tree Growth in Houston

The growing conditions of urban trees differ substantially from forest sites and are mainly characterized by small planting pits with less water, nutrient and aeration availability, high temperatures and radiation inputs as well as pollution and soil compaction. Especially, global warming can amplify the negative effects of urban microclimates on tree growth, health and well-being of citizens. To quantify the growth of urban trees influenced by the urban climate, ten urban tree species in four climate zones were assessed in an overarching worldwide dendrochronological study. The focus of this analysis was the species water oak (Quercus nigra L.) in Houston, Texas, USA. Similar to the overall growth trend, we found in urban trees, water oaks displayed an accelerated growth during the last decades. Moreover, water oaks in the city center grew better than the water oaks growing in the rural surroundings of Houston, though this trend was reversed with high age. Growth habitat (urban, suburban, rural and forest) significantly affected tree growth (p < 0.001) with urban trees growing faster than rural growing trees and forest trees, though a younger age of urban trees might influence the found growth patterns. Growing site in terms of cardinal direction did not markedly influence tree growth, which was more influenced by the prevalent climatic conditions of Houston and the urban climate. Higher temperatures, an extended growing season and eutrophication can cause an accelerated growth of trees in urban regions across, across all climatic zones. However, an accelerated growth rate can have negative consequences like quicker ageing and tree death resulting in higher costs for new plantings and tree management as well as the decrease in ecosystem services due to a lack of old trees providing greatest benefits for mitigating the negative effects of the urban climate.

乳腺癌多维治疗质量纵向评价的趋势分析

目的基于潜变量增长混合模型(Latent growth mixture model,LGMM)分析乳腺癌多维度治疗质量的纵向趋势,识别潜在的变化模式及影响因素,为提高治疗质量和改善患者预后提供科学依据。方法选取国家“特定(单)病种质量监测系统”中连续4年的乳腺癌质量监测数据;基于项目反应理论(Item response theory,IRT)计算乳腺癌在术前检查、治疗以及结局3个维度的治疗质量;构建LGMM分析乳腺癌各维度治疗质量的独立以及联合变化趋势,结合实际意义及统计指标确定最优模型。结果在独立变化趋势分析中,术前检查、治疗和结局维度均识别出2个潜在类别,其中,术前检查维度中呈快速上升趋势占9%、呈相对稳定趋势占91%;治疗维度中稳定增长占23%、缓慢下降占77%;结局维度中呈上升趋势占13%、呈下降趋势占87%。在联合变化趋势分析中,识别出2个潜在类别:第一类占比约8%,该类术前检查维度治疗质量较好,其截距和斜率均值分别为3.326和3.367,治疗和结局维度的治疗质量稳步提高;第二类占比约92%,该类治疗维度治疗质量较好,其截距和斜率均值分别为0.548和0.018,术前检查和结局维度的治疗质量仍有改善空间;患者特征中BMI和M分期是治疗质量联合变化趋势的重要影响因素。结论该研究期间乳腺癌治疗质量在术前检查、治疗和结局各维度均有不同程度的改善;在三个维度的联合变化趋势分析中,术前检查维度治疗质量的提高,可为后续治疗提供可行的参考,达到减少并发症的目的。

广东省城市化对植被生长的直接和间接影响

全球城市化进程的不可逆及快速发展严重影响了城市植被的生长,城市植被生长状况代表了区域生态环境的稳定性,区分城市化对植被的直接影响和间接影响并进行定量的区域分析对深入理解城市化对植被生长的影响机制和推动区域绿色可持续发展有着重要意义。以广东省为研究对象,基于MODIS13A1产品中增强型植被指数和不透水路面数据,运用slope趋势分析和相关性分析等方法,量化研究2000—2018年广东省这一区域尺度下城市化对植被生长的直接和间接影响。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2018年广东省植被生长状态较为稳定且随着时间的变化有所增强。(2)广东省植被指数与城市化强度存在显著负相关关系;在城市化过程中,除了负面的直接影响,还存在消极和积极的间接影响。(3)间接影响的占比随着城市化强度的增加,呈现出下降⁃上升⁃下降的趋势。积极的间接影响的占比最大值出现时,城市化强度约达0.9。可为广东省城市生态系统的可持续发展提供重要的数据积累和科学依据。

抚顺地区玉米螟的发生规律与防治对策

为了解玉米螟在抚顺地区的发生规律、掌握其发生与气候因子的联系,通过对抚顺近些年来玉米螟的发生情况进行调查研究来确定当地各世代、各虫态的发生起始期、高峰期及末期,并找出抚顺地区玉米螟的发生规律,从而为抚顺地区玉米螟的防治适期及方法提供建议和参考。

江西省柑橘生育期内高温热害时空分布特征

利用江西省1981-2022年逐日气象资料和柑橘生育期资料,选取日平均气温、日最高气温和热害持续天数作为柑橘高温热害指标,明确柑橘生育期内高温热害空间分布特征和时间变化趋势;采用配对t检验方法,对比柑橘不同生育期内高温热害时空差异。结果表明:(1)柑橘开花-果实膨大期高温热害发生频率、发生次数和发生强度均值分别为87.73%、2.23次·a^(-1)和5.28d·次^(-1),高值区主要分布在江西东南部。柑橘果实膨大-果实着色期高温热害发生频率、发生次数和发生强度均值分别为56.43%、1.15次·a^(-1)和2.74d·次^(-1),高值区主要分布在赣北和赣中地区。(2)研究期内柑橘开花-果实膨大期高温热害站次比、发生次数和发生强度均呈下降趋势,平均每10a分别减少0.90个百分点、0.02次和0.06d·次^(-1)。柑橘果实膨大-果实着色期高温热害站次比、发生次数和发生强度均呈上升趋势,平均每10a分别增加6.80个百分点、0.26次和0.50d·次^(-1)。(3)配对t检验结果表明,柑橘开花-果实膨大期高温热害发生频率、发生次数和发生强度均极显著大于果实膨大-果实着色期;而柑橘开花-果实膨大期高温热害发生次数和发生强度的气候倾向率均极显著小于果实膨大-果实着色期。江西柑橘开花-果实膨大期是高温热害高发时期。目前,需加强对柑橘开花-果实膨大期高温热害的防御;未来应提高对柑橘果实膨大-果实着色期高温热害的预防。