Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and po...Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data （from 1995 to 2020） were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model （AEM） and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. Results The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV （PLHIV; to 136 617）, increased HIV prevalence （2.51%）, and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome （AIDS） in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate （per 10 000） was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate （per 10 000） from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per i0 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. Conclusion Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan.展开更多
A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase;next generation of in...A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase;next generation of infected individuals may be infected and it will take them some time to get maturity and infect others. Mathematical analysis shows that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV/AIDS are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R0 for our model. If R0 R0 > 1.展开更多
Background:The human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)epidemic is a typical global health concern.The impact of HIV/AIDS is global,and we cannot effectively solve the problem without ...Background:The human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)epidemic is a typical global health concern.The impact of HIV/AIDS is global,and we cannot effectively solve the problem without a global effort.In this study,we report our research on global HIV/AIDS control with an innovative fourdimensional approach.Methods:Countries(n=148)with data available on area size,total population,and the total number of persons living with HIV(PLWH)were included.The HIV epidemic across the globe was described using 4 indicators,including the total count,population-based P rate,geographic area-based G rate,and population and geographic area-based PG rate.Results:A total of 35,426,911 PLWH were included,with a global prevalence rate of 0.51 per 1,000 population.The total PLWH count provided data on resource allocation in individual countries to improve HIV/AIDS care;and the top five countries with the highest PLWH counts were South Africa(7,000),Nigeria(3,500),India(2,100),Kenya(1,500),and Mozambique(1,500).The other three indicators provide a measure to assess the global risk profile of HIV transmission and to provide information on HIV/AIDS prevention strategies.The top five countries with the highest P rates(per 1,000 persons)were Swaziland(170.9),Botswana(154.7),Lesotho(145.2),South Africa(127.4),and Zimbabwe(89.7);the top five countries with the highest G rates(per 100 km2)were Swaziland(1,279.1),Malawi(1,039.5),Lesotho(1,021.1),Rwanda(810.7),and Uganda(748.1);and the top five countries with highest PG rates(per 1,000,000 persons per 100 km2)were Barbados(2,127.9),Swaziland(993.8),Lesotho(478.3),Malta(375.0),and Mauritius(319.7).With PG rate,we detected countries in two hotspots(south and middle Africa and the Caribbean region)and one belt across the Euro-Asian region with high risks of HIV transmission.Conclusions:This study expanded the conventional measures by adding two new indicators,thus forming a new four-dimensional framework to quantify the global HIV epidemic.In addition to gaining a better insight into the epidemic than before,study findings provide new data on country-level and global efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.展开更多
The principles of the HIV-AIDS epidemics are established based on the subpopulation 1) Susceptible;2) HIV-infected;3) AIDS-infected;4) Immunized. The immunized subset of the population in this paper is the total indiv...The principles of the HIV-AIDS epidemics are established based on the subpopulation 1) Susceptible;2) HIV-infected;3) AIDS-infected;4) Immunized. The immunized subset of the population in this paper is the total individuals who were infected and cured or immunized by vaccination. The immunized group can be identified by removing individuals from the susceptible group. A general mathematical model is developed for HIV-AIDS epidemics with Vaccination to understand the spread of the virus throughout the population. Particularly we use numerical simulation with some values of parameters to predict the number of infected individuals during a certain period in a population and the effect of vaccine to reduce infected group and increase the number of immunized individuals. Further, we expand the research to special cases with no vaccinations. A special case is when the removal subset of the population is empty, or there is no recovery in this epidemic. We also can consider the total infected number is equal to the sum of the HIV infected and the number of AIDS infected. As a result, one can reduce four-stage HIV-AIDS investigation to a three-stage of SIR. With this introduction and modification, the numerical simulation can be developed the Monte Carlo simulation method in SIR case to verify the Validity of the HIV-AIDS model.展开更多
AIDS is a public health problem of which,in spite of the authorized actions and efforts,the socio‐economic,cultural,and political effects on humanity do not cease growing.Finding either preventive or curative solutio...AIDS is a public health problem of which,in spite of the authorized actions and efforts,the socio‐economic,cultural,and political effects on humanity do not cease growing.Finding either preventive or curative solutions remains a big concern and the production of knowledge is still one of the alternatives.It is in this context that this study on the socio‐demographic characteristics in connection with the evolution of the disease in rural environment was carried out.The concerned targets were the rural populations of Indenie‐Djuablin,an area located at the East of the Ivory Coast.Thus,Affalikro,Aniassue,Amelekia,and Bettie,principal large villages of the chief town of Abengourou area were the sites of data collection of nearly 305 samples of individuals using a questionnaire and interview guides.The study used a quantitative and qualitative method with the dialectical and hypothetico‐deductive approaches for the data analysis.The results obtained and discussed made it possible to conclude that the socio‐demographic characteristics,while determining the attitudes and behaviors,expose the individuals to the HIV/AIDS contamination.展开更多
In this study,a numerical method based on the Pell-Lucas polynomials(PLPs)is developed to solve the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment.The HIV/AIDS mathematical model with a treatmen...In this study,a numerical method based on the Pell-Lucas polynomials(PLPs)is developed to solve the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment.The HIV/AIDS mathematical model with a treatment compartment is divided into five classes,namely,susceptible patients(S),HIV-positive individuals(I),individuals with full-blown AIDS but not receiving ARV treatment(A),individuals being treated(T),and individuals who have changed their sexual habits sufficiently(R).According to the method,by utilizing the PLPs and the collocation points,we convert the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment into a nonlinear system of the algebraic equations.Also,the error analysis is presented for the Pell-Lucas approximation method.The aim of this study is to observe the behavior of five populations after 200 days when drug treatment is applied to HIV-infectious and full-blown AIDS people.To demonstrate the usefulness of this method,the applications are made on the numerical example with the help of MATLAB.In addition,four cases of the fractional order derivative(p=1,p=0.95,p=0.9,p=0.85)are examined in the range[0,200].Owing to applications,we figured out that the outcomes have quite decent errors.Also,we understand that the errors decrease when the value of N increases.The figures in this study are created in MATLAB.The outcomes indicate that the presented method is reasonably sufficient and correct.展开更多
基金funded by China-MSD HIV/AIDS Partnership Project(2012-83)Comprehensive Assessment for HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention in Sichuan Province Project(2006-2010)
文摘Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data （from 1995 to 2020） were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model （AEM） and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. Results The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV （PLHIV; to 136 617）, increased HIV prevalence （2.51%）, and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome （AIDS） in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate （per 10 000） was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate （per 10 000） from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per i0 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. Conclusion Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan.
文摘A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase;next generation of infected individuals may be infected and it will take them some time to get maturity and infect others. Mathematical analysis shows that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV/AIDS are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R0 for our model. If R0 R0 > 1.
文摘Background:The human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)epidemic is a typical global health concern.The impact of HIV/AIDS is global,and we cannot effectively solve the problem without a global effort.In this study,we report our research on global HIV/AIDS control with an innovative fourdimensional approach.Methods:Countries(n=148)with data available on area size,total population,and the total number of persons living with HIV(PLWH)were included.The HIV epidemic across the globe was described using 4 indicators,including the total count,population-based P rate,geographic area-based G rate,and population and geographic area-based PG rate.Results:A total of 35,426,911 PLWH were included,with a global prevalence rate of 0.51 per 1,000 population.The total PLWH count provided data on resource allocation in individual countries to improve HIV/AIDS care;and the top five countries with the highest PLWH counts were South Africa(7,000),Nigeria(3,500),India(2,100),Kenya(1,500),and Mozambique(1,500).The other three indicators provide a measure to assess the global risk profile of HIV transmission and to provide information on HIV/AIDS prevention strategies.The top five countries with the highest P rates(per 1,000 persons)were Swaziland(170.9),Botswana(154.7),Lesotho(145.2),South Africa(127.4),and Zimbabwe(89.7);the top five countries with the highest G rates(per 100 km2)were Swaziland(1,279.1),Malawi(1,039.5),Lesotho(1,021.1),Rwanda(810.7),and Uganda(748.1);and the top five countries with highest PG rates(per 1,000,000 persons per 100 km2)were Barbados(2,127.9),Swaziland(993.8),Lesotho(478.3),Malta(375.0),and Mauritius(319.7).With PG rate,we detected countries in two hotspots(south and middle Africa and the Caribbean region)and one belt across the Euro-Asian region with high risks of HIV transmission.Conclusions:This study expanded the conventional measures by adding two new indicators,thus forming a new four-dimensional framework to quantify the global HIV epidemic.In addition to gaining a better insight into the epidemic than before,study findings provide new data on country-level and global efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.
文摘The principles of the HIV-AIDS epidemics are established based on the subpopulation 1) Susceptible;2) HIV-infected;3) AIDS-infected;4) Immunized. The immunized subset of the population in this paper is the total individuals who were infected and cured or immunized by vaccination. The immunized group can be identified by removing individuals from the susceptible group. A general mathematical model is developed for HIV-AIDS epidemics with Vaccination to understand the spread of the virus throughout the population. Particularly we use numerical simulation with some values of parameters to predict the number of infected individuals during a certain period in a population and the effect of vaccine to reduce infected group and increase the number of immunized individuals. Further, we expand the research to special cases with no vaccinations. A special case is when the removal subset of the population is empty, or there is no recovery in this epidemic. We also can consider the total infected number is equal to the sum of the HIV infected and the number of AIDS infected. As a result, one can reduce four-stage HIV-AIDS investigation to a three-stage of SIR. With this introduction and modification, the numerical simulation can be developed the Monte Carlo simulation method in SIR case to verify the Validity of the HIV-AIDS model.
文摘AIDS is a public health problem of which,in spite of the authorized actions and efforts,the socio‐economic,cultural,and political effects on humanity do not cease growing.Finding either preventive or curative solutions remains a big concern and the production of knowledge is still one of the alternatives.It is in this context that this study on the socio‐demographic characteristics in connection with the evolution of the disease in rural environment was carried out.The concerned targets were the rural populations of Indenie‐Djuablin,an area located at the East of the Ivory Coast.Thus,Affalikro,Aniassue,Amelekia,and Bettie,principal large villages of the chief town of Abengourou area were the sites of data collection of nearly 305 samples of individuals using a questionnaire and interview guides.The study used a quantitative and qualitative method with the dialectical and hypothetico‐deductive approaches for the data analysis.The results obtained and discussed made it possible to conclude that the socio‐demographic characteristics,while determining the attitudes and behaviors,expose the individuals to the HIV/AIDS contamination.
文摘In this study,a numerical method based on the Pell-Lucas polynomials(PLPs)is developed to solve the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment.The HIV/AIDS mathematical model with a treatment compartment is divided into five classes,namely,susceptible patients(S),HIV-positive individuals(I),individuals with full-blown AIDS but not receiving ARV treatment(A),individuals being treated(T),and individuals who have changed their sexual habits sufficiently(R).According to the method,by utilizing the PLPs and the collocation points,we convert the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment into a nonlinear system of the algebraic equations.Also,the error analysis is presented for the Pell-Lucas approximation method.The aim of this study is to observe the behavior of five populations after 200 days when drug treatment is applied to HIV-infectious and full-blown AIDS people.To demonstrate the usefulness of this method,the applications are made on the numerical example with the help of MATLAB.In addition,four cases of the fractional order derivative(p=1,p=0.95,p=0.9,p=0.85)are examined in the range[0,200].Owing to applications,we figured out that the outcomes have quite decent errors.Also,we understand that the errors decrease when the value of N increases.The figures in this study are created in MATLAB.The outcomes indicate that the presented method is reasonably sufficient and correct.
