Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful ...Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.展开更多
With dexterous hands, robots can improve the work scope and work ability significantly. As palms of the existing multi-hand robots are made of steel plates that have small contact area, the robots cannot grab firmly. ...With dexterous hands, robots can improve the work scope and work ability significantly. As palms of the existing multi-hand robots are made of steel plates that have small contact area, the robots cannot grab firmly. In this study, a new five-fingered dexterous robot hand is developed. Having flexible palm with 17 degree of freedoms （ DOFs）, the hand can grasp more stably and firm- ly. First, the forward kinematics and inverse kinematics of the fingers and the hand are calculated. Then, the connection between the force exerting on the end effectors and the torque exerting on the joint is set up, laying the foundation for the following control. Finally, through the analysis and sim- ulation of the position, velocity and acceleration, the trajectory planning has a better performance.展开更多
Currently, Granger-Geweke causality models have been widely applied to investigate the dynamic direction relationships among brain regions. In a previous study, we have found that the right hand finger-tapping task ca...Currently, Granger-Geweke causality models have been widely applied to investigate the dynamic direction relationships among brain regions. In a previous study, we have found that the right hand finger-tapping task can produce relatively reliable brain response. As an extension of our previous study, we developed an algorithm based on the classical Granger- Geweke causality model to further investigate the effective connectivity of three brain regions (left primary motor cortex (M1), supplementary motor area (SMA) and right cerebellum) that showed the most robust brain activations. Our computational results not only confirm the strong linear feedback among SMA, M1 and right cerebellum, but also demonstrate that M1 is the hub of these three regions indicated by the anatomy research. Moreover, the model predicts the high intermediate node density existing in the area between SMA and M1, which will stimulate the imaging experimentalists to carry out new experiments to validate this postulation.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a novel speed and service-sensitive handoff algorithm and analytical model for hierarchical cellular networks.First, we use the Gauss-Markov mobility model to predict the speeds of mobile sta...In this paper, we propose a novel speed and service-sensitive handoff algorithm and analytical model for hierarchical cellular networks.First, we use the Gauss-Markov mobility model to predict the speeds of mobile stations, and divide mobile stations into three classes based on the predicted speeds: fast, medium-speed, and slow.Then, according to the mobility classification,network conditions, and service types, mobile stations will be handoff to the proper target networks prior to the deterioration of the currently operating channel. We further develop an analytical model to evaluate the performance of such a hierarchical system with different speed classes and service types. Simulations and analytical results show that the proposed handoff algorithm can significantly improve the network performance in terms of the handoff failure probability, unnecessary handoff probability, and network throughput, comparing with the traditional algorithms.展开更多
Finite-difference time-domain(FDTD) method is used to simulate the propagation of electromagnetic wave in left-handed material slab(LHMs) with cold plasma model The effects of optical propagation in the left-handed ma...Finite-difference time-domain(FDTD) method is used to simulate the propagation of electromagnetic wave in left-handed material slab(LHMs) with cold plasma model The effects of optical propagation in the left-handed material compared to convex lens are discussed.The wider the LHMs is,the stronger electric field of focusing image in left-handed material slab is confirmed by the simulation with various slab length.However,the outer image point location would slightly moves to the LHMs side when the length of LHMs is reduced.展开更多
Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is mon...Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.展开更多
Capsid protein enterovirus 71 （EV71） is one of the major viruses that cause the severe encephalitis and thus result in a high mortality in children less than 5 years of age.In an effort to discover new potent inhibi...Capsid protein enterovirus 71 （EV71） is one of the major viruses that cause the severe encephalitis and thus result in a high mortality in children less than 5 years of age.In an effort to discover new potent inhibitors against EV71,a novel three-dimensional pharmacophore model was developed on 24 inhibitors with different molecular structures and bioactivities.The best hypothesis （Hypo1） has a high predictive power and consists of four features,namely,one hydrophobic point （HY） and three hydrogen-bond acceptors （HA）.Two key features of the best Hypo1,HY1 and HA3 match well with an important narrow hydrophobic canyon and with the surface of LYS274 in the target EV71 active site,respectively.The more versatile feature,HA1,is firstly found to be very influential on these compounds’ bioactivities,which may interact with the other side of the active site in the EV71 receptor.The application of the model is successful in predicting the activities of 30 known EV71 inhibitors with a correlation coefficient of 0.831.Furthermore,Hypo1 demonstrates a superior screening capability for retrieving inhibitors from the database with a high enrichment factor of 70.This study provides some important clues in search for more potent inhibitors against EV71 infection.展开更多
In a general overview, signed language is a technique used for communicational purposes by deaf people. It is a three-dimensional language that relies on visual gestures and moving hand signs that classify letters and...In a general overview, signed language is a technique used for communicational purposes by deaf people. It is a three-dimensional language that relies on visual gestures and moving hand signs that classify letters and words. Gesture recognition has been always a relatively fearful subject that is adherent to the individual on both academic and demonstrative levels. The core objective of this system is to produce a method which can identify detailed humanoid nods and use them to either deliver ones thoughts and feelings, or for device control. This system will stand as an effective replacement for speech, enhancing the individual’s ability to express and intermingle in society. In this paper, we will discuss the different steps used to input, recognize and analyze the hand gestures, transforming them to both written words and audible speech. Each step is an independent algorithm that has its unique variables and conditions.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Health and Family Planning Commission of Hubei Province(No.WJ2017F047)the Health and Family Planning Commission of Wuhan(No.WG17D05)
文摘Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.
基金Supported by Beijing Science Foundation(4122065)National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholar(60925014)
文摘With dexterous hands, robots can improve the work scope and work ability significantly. As palms of the existing multi-hand robots are made of steel plates that have small contact area, the robots cannot grab firmly. In this study, a new five-fingered dexterous robot hand is developed. Having flexible palm with 17 degree of freedoms （ DOFs）, the hand can grasp more stably and firm- ly. First, the forward kinematics and inverse kinematics of the fingers and the hand are calculated. Then, the connection between the force exerting on the end effectors and the torque exerting on the joint is set up, laying the foundation for the following control. Finally, through the analysis and sim- ulation of the position, velocity and acceleration, the trajectory planning has a better performance.
文摘Currently, Granger-Geweke causality models have been widely applied to investigate the dynamic direction relationships among brain regions. In a previous study, we have found that the right hand finger-tapping task can produce relatively reliable brain response. As an extension of our previous study, we developed an algorithm based on the classical Granger- Geweke causality model to further investigate the effective connectivity of three brain regions (left primary motor cortex (M1), supplementary motor area (SMA) and right cerebellum) that showed the most robust brain activations. Our computational results not only confirm the strong linear feedback among SMA, M1 and right cerebellum, but also demonstrate that M1 is the hub of these three regions indicated by the anatomy research. Moreover, the model predicts the high intermediate node density existing in the area between SMA and M1, which will stimulate the imaging experimentalists to carry out new experiments to validate this postulation.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of China(61372125)973 project(2013CB329104)+1 种基金the National High-Tech R&D Program(863 Program 2015AA01A705)the open research fund of National Mobile Communications Research Laboratory,Southeast University(2013D01)
文摘In this paper, we propose a novel speed and service-sensitive handoff algorithm and analytical model for hierarchical cellular networks.First, we use the Gauss-Markov mobility model to predict the speeds of mobile stations, and divide mobile stations into three classes based on the predicted speeds: fast, medium-speed, and slow.Then, according to the mobility classification,network conditions, and service types, mobile stations will be handoff to the proper target networks prior to the deterioration of the currently operating channel. We further develop an analytical model to evaluate the performance of such a hierarchical system with different speed classes and service types. Simulations and analytical results show that the proposed handoff algorithm can significantly improve the network performance in terms of the handoff failure probability, unnecessary handoff probability, and network throughput, comparing with the traditional algorithms.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60601028)
文摘Finite-difference time-domain(FDTD) method is used to simulate the propagation of electromagnetic wave in left-handed material slab(LHMs) with cold plasma model The effects of optical propagation in the left-handed material compared to convex lens are discussed.The wider the LHMs is,the stronger electric field of focusing image in left-handed material slab is confirmed by the simulation with various slab length.However,the outer image point location would slightly moves to the LHMs side when the length of LHMs is reduced.
文摘Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 30800719)
文摘Capsid protein enterovirus 71 （EV71） is one of the major viruses that cause the severe encephalitis and thus result in a high mortality in children less than 5 years of age.In an effort to discover new potent inhibitors against EV71,a novel three-dimensional pharmacophore model was developed on 24 inhibitors with different molecular structures and bioactivities.The best hypothesis （Hypo1） has a high predictive power and consists of four features,namely,one hydrophobic point （HY） and three hydrogen-bond acceptors （HA）.Two key features of the best Hypo1,HY1 and HA3 match well with an important narrow hydrophobic canyon and with the surface of LYS274 in the target EV71 active site,respectively.The more versatile feature,HA1,is firstly found to be very influential on these compounds’ bioactivities,which may interact with the other side of the active site in the EV71 receptor.The application of the model is successful in predicting the activities of 30 known EV71 inhibitors with a correlation coefficient of 0.831.Furthermore,Hypo1 demonstrates a superior screening capability for retrieving inhibitors from the database with a high enrichment factor of 70.This study provides some important clues in search for more potent inhibitors against EV71 infection.
文摘In a general overview, signed language is a technique used for communicational purposes by deaf people. It is a three-dimensional language that relies on visual gestures and moving hand signs that classify letters and words. Gesture recognition has been always a relatively fearful subject that is adherent to the individual on both academic and demonstrative levels. The core objective of this system is to produce a method which can identify detailed humanoid nods and use them to either deliver ones thoughts and feelings, or for device control. This system will stand as an effective replacement for speech, enhancing the individual’s ability to express and intermingle in society. In this paper, we will discuss the different steps used to input, recognize and analyze the hand gestures, transforming them to both written words and audible speech. Each step is an independent algorithm that has its unique variables and conditions.
