The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast de...The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Foreeast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.展开更多
In the process of human survival and development, it is inevitable to transform the original state of the world, thus forming a contradiction between the earth and the earth. The violent form of this contradiction is ...In the process of human survival and development, it is inevitable to transform the original state of the world, thus forming a contradiction between the earth and the earth. The violent form of this contradiction is geological disasters. Geological disasters pose a threat to human life and property, and cause damage caused by natural or human factors, often causing casualties. The destruction process of geological disasters is usually a gradual process, showing many pre-disaster symptoms, such as local landslides, surface cracks, building deformation, tree skew, and ground sound. Evacuation can be avoided in advance according to the disaster precursors, so as to avoid casualties and achieve successful prediction. By reviewing the general situation of geological disasters in Shaanxi Province and the casualties in 2020, the difficulties in the prevention and control of geological disasters are summarized. In view of these difficulties, an on-site investigation, visit and analysis of geological disaster points and successful forecast points in Shaanxi Province in 2020 were conducted. In addition, combined with actual cases and years of work experience, the successful prediction experience of geological disasters was discussed from 8 aspects. Finally, the “Regulations on the Reward for Successful Geological Disaster Forecasting in Shaanxi Province” was revised in order to improve the successful prediction ability of geological disasters in Shaanxi Province and even the whole country, provide reference for future prevention and control of geological disasters, and effectively protect the safety of people’s lives and property.展开更多
文摘The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Foreeast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.
文摘In the process of human survival and development, it is inevitable to transform the original state of the world, thus forming a contradiction between the earth and the earth. The violent form of this contradiction is geological disasters. Geological disasters pose a threat to human life and property, and cause damage caused by natural or human factors, often causing casualties. The destruction process of geological disasters is usually a gradual process, showing many pre-disaster symptoms, such as local landslides, surface cracks, building deformation, tree skew, and ground sound. Evacuation can be avoided in advance according to the disaster precursors, so as to avoid casualties and achieve successful prediction. By reviewing the general situation of geological disasters in Shaanxi Province and the casualties in 2020, the difficulties in the prevention and control of geological disasters are summarized. In view of these difficulties, an on-site investigation, visit and analysis of geological disaster points and successful forecast points in Shaanxi Province in 2020 were conducted. In addition, combined with actual cases and years of work experience, the successful prediction experience of geological disasters was discussed from 8 aspects. Finally, the “Regulations on the Reward for Successful Geological Disaster Forecasting in Shaanxi Province” was revised in order to improve the successful prediction ability of geological disasters in Shaanxi Province and even the whole country, provide reference for future prevention and control of geological disasters, and effectively protect the safety of people’s lives and property.
